Red Line Regional Rail

[TotalLamer]

Maybe I'm wrong but I always assumed that the Red Line would require rebuilding the long gone second crossing at ADM... you can still see it on maps but I assume it's been torn out for decades:

 

 

Which wouldn't be a problem if CSX was below grade (it would just mean another bridge over the trench) but without that CSX would never allow an at-grade crossing so close to their current crossing with NS I imagine.

[kermit]

I suspect that the failure of the grade separation will mean that red line trains will need to run down Atando. I would guess this routing might add 5 minutes to each trip, rIdership models wont like that extra time.

[cltbwimob]

I suspect that the failure of the grade separation will mean that red line trains will need to run down Atando. I would guess this routing might add 5 minutes to each trip, rIdership models wont like that extra time.

I supspect if it comes through Atando and provides a connection to the blue line it would serve to increase ridership. Furthermore, I don't think ridership models will change significantly over a small increase in trip times. At any rate, given the lack of fidelity in the models themselves, I hesitate to even give them any credence. The Blue line models underpredicted the actual ridership by 65%. That lack of fidelity propels the models from "unreliable" to "junk" status in my opinion.

[kermit]

....That lack of fidelity propels the models from "unreliable" to "junk" status in my opinion.

I don't disagree at all, but unfortunately most funding decisions are made based on the results of these models.

[dubone]

As I mentioned last time it came up, I do love the idea that a re-routing will allow a connection to the Blue Line, and the current Amtrak Station, which could/should be repurposed to simply a transit station.

 

Somehow, though, I have lost faith that the leadership of this project and many many others have any visionary plans to make anything substantially more innovative.  There are a lot of solid improvements that could be made on the designs and corridor selections of most of our transit plan.  Why are so stuck to the Tober-McCrory-era compromises which have turned out to be really inadequate?

 

The Blue Line Extension CLEARLY had bad assumptions that it could cheaply be run down the median with minimal roadwork.  Now we have a billion dollar project which thankfully still had the ridership to be justified for federal money, but completely hogged all the local budget for years in doing so.    Independence was a bad choice, streetcar to Eastland is proving to be a political non-starter (although continues to be a no-brainer within downtown), BRT to the airport (lame), and then there is this Little Red Line that Could, which keeps coming at us with political support despite failing odds that constantly get worse.

 

WHY does this line have the most political momentum for 4000 riders = 2000 people?  It proves that the suburbs own the process, despite having no other urban design pre-requisites to let it succeed.     Maybe if they added a rail car to attach your boat and deliver it to your marina of choice it would have some ridership projections worth any of our time. 

[15895]

I don't intend for this to be necessarily about the extreme value of streetcar and Peacocks & McCrorys support for streetcar....

As much as it is the red line, Gateway & silver line are getting annoying with delays and it frustrates me that we wouldn't go ahead and build out the streetcar while continuing to plan out gateway, red line & silver line.... I understand the silver line & red line were were prioritized first, but it seems more prudent to start build out the gold line to make it a viable mode of transportation like McCrory envisioned. The starter gold line is destined to not be a strong performer at its current couple of miles.

My point is the red line should have been up & running by now, gateway should be under construction and we should have already decided if the silver line wil be BRT or LRT......

Let's get moving with shovel ready projects and be more responsible about our priorities. Circumstances change.....

[dubone]

Well, all the other corridors were damned when the early planning for the Blue Line Extension was prioritized first but turn more and more expensive.  It was a good thing, because obviously it did deserve funding and got built.   But the costs of it were what made CATS eschew all the other corridors.  The Red Line stayed alive purely to try a hail mary for random TIGER funding and hopes that the the towns would pay their way through to building it if they could, which they clearly will not be able to, but god bless them for still trying. 

 

But pretty much, CATS has abandoned all other hope for the 20-Never Transit Plans.  They aren't even providing the local funds for the streetcar in a similar pattern to the Red Line because a) they don't have it (BLE) and b) they don't want to (because "they" = MTC = suburban mayor cabal).    So that leaves Charlotte to go it alone on the only project it could afford to build by itself but still be justified by ridership.  

 

Gateway Station is not as high of a priority as the lines actually running to it.   It has been a huge shame that it has been delayed, but honestly, what if it were built, it would only have some buses running past and 3 train cars to Raleigh and a couple middle of the night trains between NYC and NOLA.   The right would go NUTS at that as it would be perpetually empty. 

[jednc]

Gateway Station is not as high of a priority as the lines actually running to it.   It has been a huge shame that it has been delayed, but honestly, what if it were built, it would only have some buses running past and 3 train cars to Raleigh and a couple middle of the night trains between NYC and NOLA.   The right would go NUTS at that as it would be perpetually empty. 

 

Shouldn't the LEFT go nuts for the same reasons if it were built without a clear need?

[15895]

Gateway Station is not as high of a priority as the lines actually running to it. It has been a huge shame that it has been delayed, but honestly, what if it were built, it would only have some buses running past and 3 train cars to Raleigh and a couple middle of the night trains between NYC and NOLA. The right would go NUTS at that as it would be perpetually empty.

Shouldn't the LEFT go nuts for the same reasons if it were built without a clear need?

No because the left has foresight.

So when the redline and other lines are built.... Then we build gateway??

It's like the government shutdown. The Republicans actually cost more money to shutdown the bloated out of control spending government and ended up costing even more money then of it were to just stay open.

[kermit]

Gateway Station is not as high of a priority as the lines actually running to it.   It has been a huge shame that it has been delayed, but honestly, what if it were built, it would only have some buses running past and 3 train cars to Raleigh and a couple middle of the night trains between NYC and NOLA.   The right would go NUTS at that as it would be perpetually empty. 

 

While I don't entirely disagree with your concern that Gateway station may appear to be underused I think you are miscounting the traffic that will almost certainly go into Gateway as soon as it is completed. The following trains are currently funded

 

1) The Carolinian (CLT-NYC via Raleigh): Currently 5 coaches (plus cafe and baggage), it is consistently full. This train will get longer as soon as the Charlotte service and storage yard is up an running near Summit st. 

The outbound trip leaves at 7am, the inbound around 8 pm

2) The Piedmont (CLT-Raleigh): Two frequencies (two outbound and two inbound) currently operate. The reallocation of the grade separation money will enable five frequencies (this means five outbound and five inbound trains per day at Gateway). While the Piedmont runs during the middle of the week with three cars, weekend traffic frequently requires 5+ coaches lately. This is Amtrak's fastest growing route.

3) The Crescent (New Orleans to New York, Via Greensboro and Lynchburg): Yes, this is the middle of the night train, but it still generates substantial Charlotte traffic in both directions and functions as a second frequency to the Northeast. The train is roughly the same size as the Carolinian plus two sleeper cars.

 

These trains together add to 14 trains per day at Gateway (7 departures and 7 arrivals) (roughly one train per hour from 7am-8pm). The current station (with 8 trains per day) moves approximately 200,000 people per year -- extrapolating current per train averages to 14 trains per day produces 350,000 pax per year. I think that number would be a conservative estimate as higher frequencies nearly always create higher ridership).

 

I agree that 1,000 passengers per day is a marginal number for a project as large as Gateway station, but it is FAR more passengers than can be reasonably handled at the current station. We can't really expand NC rail service without a new Charlotte (or Raleigh) station.

 

Commuter rail (and an express bus stop and intercity busses) would certainly make Gateway busier. But if the SEHSR plans ever begin to materialize (and/or Amtrak begins to run the NY-Miami Silver Star through Charlotte) then there will be more than enough intercity traffic to make the station feel very well used.

[dubone]

So if the intercity passenger rail is projected to generate 1000 daily passengers, then the Red Line at 4000 daily riders most with Gateway as their destination or origination is actually 80% of the traffic.  The CTC station which got a glorified carport roof actually handles more traffic.  The much maligned streetcar has projected more than 20x that number.  

 

I just want to be clear on the priorities.  Obviously we need a station to be built that is up to date, and up to the levels of population our city is now and will be in 50 years.   But the city should be focusing far more on keeping its rail transit program from being abandoned by short-sightedness, which will affect many many times the number of commuters and travelers as the intercity rail.  

[mallguy]

No because the left has foresight.

Knock it off with the political insults, please.

[15895]

Knock it off with the political insults, please.

It's not an insult. I feel the left is more willing to bite a bullet on initial lower ridership projections knowing that they would increase.

Though I feel Republicans would be too nervous due to their base to want to move forward with a transit project that would have lower ridership regardless of the future benefits.

Transit, unfortunately is very political.

(by the way, Tata was in Charlotte and on his Facebook has a long article touting the benefits of the Blue Line and talking about the expansion of the blue line and how light rail is a nice alternative helping people in the "Queen City" get to work, play and get to different parts of the city)

Tata wasn't a bad choice.

[Norm2]

It's not an insult. I feel the left is more willing to bite a bullet on initial lower ridership projections knowing that they would increase.

Though I feel Republicans would be too nervous due to their base to want to move forward with a transit project that would have lower ridership regardless of the future benefits.

Transit, unfortunately is very political.

(by the way, Tata was in Charlotte and on his Facebook has a long article touting the benefits of the Blue Line and talking about the expansion of the blue line and how light rail is a nice alternative helping people in the "Queen City" get to work, play and get to different parts of the city)

Tata wasn't a bad choice.

Who is Tata?

[dubone]

Transit should not be any more controversial than roads, but the difference with transit is that it has certain pre-requisites to work well, primarily a critical density of the geography at the origination and destination.  

 

It has turned out that way in US politics purely for a WIIFM scenario where rural and suburban voters tend to not benefit as much from transit and tend to be the core base for GOP politicians, as those locations do not tend to have that pre-requisite density.   The Red line has been a prime example where suburban voters actually do think it will benefit them, without realizing it has the weakest cost-benefit in the whole state.   They're undeterred by failing to meet minimum standards for federal funding which is derived from technocratic standards and not politics.   So we get caught in a very interesting catch 22, where politicians that typically are opposed to transit with great cost-benefit ROI in urban/blue districts are fully supportive of suburban lines with poor cost-benefit ROI.    

 

In my social life talking to laymen about transit, I often hear of how bad the streetcar is, and why aren't they building the line to lake norman when the traffic is terrible on I77.   It is easy politics for people who don't pay attention because the streetcar goes a short distance, does not take them home to their neighborhood, and doesn't magically solve any freeway congestion.   But the fact is that while they may live in Huntersville, they don't live in downtown Huntersville, nor will they or other people currently taking i77 in North Meck be hopping on the train to head to dinner or nightlife, and certainly not for a major source of traffic, for recreation on the lake.   So we have geographical modeling producing paltry numbers for how many potential riders there are on the Red Line.    

 

Meanwhile, in an urban world, you have a obscenely short streetcar line going through dense neighborhoods past more than 100k employment centers, thousands of tourists in hotels, hospitals with thousands of patients and employees, colleges with thousands of students and employees, sports centers with thousands of fans, and walkable neighborhoods with thousands of residents with multiple daily needs to travel to adjacent urban neighborhoods that are outside of a comfortable walk away.   Because of this geography the models for the streetcar yields 4-5x the riders for the same or lower cost. 

 

It really isn't that the right or left is pro-transit or anti-transit, it instead seems to boil down to politicians wanting to bring patronage to their districts.   Suburban politicians don't like the streetcar because it only serves one urban district, even if it makes enormously more sense technocratically.    

[15895]

Who is Tata?

NCDOT secretary.

[modernurbanity]

I'd love to see regional rail in the southeast. Since I live north of Charlotte, I'd like to see it enter Iredell county. Be really nice to have a train that runs from Statesville to Troutman to Mooresville to Davidson/Cornelius to Huntersville to Charlotte to Pineville to Fort Mill to Rock Hill! Of course this is hugely expensive and won't happen any time soon, but one can fantasize.

[Urbanity]

I'd love to see regional rail in the southeast. Since I live north of Charlotte, I'd like to see it enter Iredell county. Be really nice to have a train that runs from Statesville to Troutman to Mooresville to Davidson/Cornelius to Huntersville to Charlotte to Pineville to Fort Mill to Rock Hill! Of course this is hugely expensive and won't happen any time soon, but one can fantasize.

On the fantasy part I would also love to see lines to Kings Mountain and the Statesville line have regular frequency between a Kannapolis research Campus and UNCC stops to help make that a research corridor in a sense.

 

All that said as much as I agree with your vision (and your note of fantasy)  I would rather the city dreamed big on inner city mass transit first because what good is being able to get into the city if you are as good as stranded once you arrive?

[modernurbanity]

On the fantasy part I would also love to see lines to Kings Mountain and the Statesville line have regular frequency between a Kannapolis research Campus and UNCC stops to help make that a research corridor in a sense.

 

All that said as much as I agree with your vision (and your note of fantasy)  I would rather the city dreamed big on inner city mass transit first because what good is being able to get into the city if you are as good as stranded once you arrive?

 

Oh yes, that would be awesome too, but isn't Kannapolis too far east for a relatively straight rail line down the northern suburbs? I mean that northern line shouldn't be the only one. I would think there would be one connecting the western suburbs with the airport, Charlotte, and out to the UNCC, Kannapolis and Concord. On the other hand, isn't that basically what the light rail will eventually do? I do agree that the city rail project should be paramount but this is a thread about regional rail so I wasn't sure it would be appropriate to bring up the inner city light rail. Using D.C. as an example, the commuter trains extend out for the far away suburbs while Metrorail covers most of the rest. I just assumed that Statesville and Rock Hill would be too far to ever see light rail CATS reach. In a perfect world with endless money there would be rail hitting most of the major population centers. It's a shame that the recession has sucked everything away for the time being.

[thetrick]

I hate to be a stick in the mud and this is really directed at all the transit threads on this site, but mass transit mega projects are OVER. I don't know if it's a collective state of denial, or we (my self included) just enjoy dreaming about trains and transit plans. There simply is no money anymore, for anything really. BLE coming in at 1.1Billion even after it was trimmed back is not a good sign for any other route. The ARRA money for upgrades to the Piedmont for expanded service only came in a rescue package from the federal government to bail out a recession. No gateway station money, no streetcar money. Not even a consideration of running light rail down independance. 

 

I think people fail to realise what the tax cuts and overspending of the last 20 years have done to the federal budget, and the states just can't afford these sorts of projects on their own.

 

The Redline has low ridership projections, and a very high cost per rider (I personally think the ridership would actually be better). Additionally it is apposed by the company that owns the track! And where is the outcry from the people it would serve the most? Why do local town politicians not feel pressure to get things moving? Because frankly the Redline would serve mostly white upper middle class areas that do not have a culture of using mass transit. They don't want it and they really don't want to pay for it.

 

I am a rail advocate,a rail fan and love trains in all ways, but I have to put on my reality hat and realize what will and will not happen.

 

TH

[15895]

I would have to disagree. I believe it's just the political landscape that's preventing progress on our rail lines. The Gold line for example.

The red line would be a reality were it not for the rail road companies no dragging their feet (if I'm not mistaken)

[ah59396]

While I agree there are certain current hurdles, you can't possibly believe that mass transit mega projects are "over".  That's a little short sighted.

[Urbanity]

I'm assuming you mean only CHarlotte when discussing mega mass transit projects are over as that certainly is not the case everywhere else.  See Transport Politic's Under Construction and Planned Sections.

 

As for Charlotte I don't think we'll see much movement on major construction of a new line until after the BLE is open with the exception of the Gold Line if they can get Federal Funds/Private funding going.

 

The problem with Charlotte's transit plans was they released the system wide plan with unrealistic dates/amounts from the start and set expectations to a level they couldn't possibly meet (even without the recession in my opinion) so we're dealing with a sense of doom and gloom.

 

I believe that when the BLE is operational and the starter line of the Gold line gets going (and I have hope it will get funded for the 2.5 extension) the sense of momentum will return.

[thetrick]

I'm assuming you mean only CHarlotte when discussing mega mass transit projects are over as that certainly is not the case everywhere else.  See Transport Politic's Under Construction and Planned Sections.

 In general there still is mass transit spending, but look at the size of those cities. Or more to the point their urban density. I don't see much comparable to Charlotte on there.

 

As for Charlotte I don't think we'll see much movement on major construction of a new line until after the BLE is open with the exception of the Gold Line if they can get Federal Funds/Private funding going.

 

The problem with Charlotte's transit plans was they released the system wide plan with unrealistic dates/amounts from the start and set expectations to a level they couldn't possibly meet (even without the recession in my opinion) so we're dealing with a sense of doom and gloom.

 

I believe that when the BLE is operational and the starter line of the Gold line gets going (and I have hope it will get funded for the 2.5 extension) the sense of momentum will return.

I agree the long term plan was way too ambitious, and a cool off period might be in order. I hope the BLE will be a success and merit more light rail.

 

But I honestly believe Charlotte's low cost of living is what dooms it as far as mass transportation. Land is cheap and developers are building all the hell all over the place. South blvd and the university area were the only two high density areas we had, Independance blvd is a patchwork.

 

To me the Redline was a "good idea" but the numbers just don't shake out.

 

TH

[kermit]

I understand what you are saying about the decline of transit mega projects but I don't feel like that is a long term situation.

 

The federal gas tax is the primary means of federally funding transit projects. Since the federal gas tax has not been raised since 1991(?) it severely underfunds USDOT. There is movement in congress to revise the federal funding of mobility (a wholesale oil tax was recently proposed in the House). When the political logjam finally breaks there will be more federal funding for transit -- demographics, urban growth and preference shifts of Millennials will demand it.

 

IMO its not unrealistic that we may see an 80% (federal) and 20% (local/state) funding formula for transit eventually (this was the model used to build the interstate highway system). In addition to changes at the federal level, changes in local funding initiatives (value capture, regional sales taxes and payroll taxes) should further enable transit development.

 

I think an increase in federal cash for transit is inevitable, that money is going to go to the cities which have the best plans (including proper zoning), the most growth and the most welcoming political environment (sorry Cincinnati). The best thing Charlotte can do at the moment is update the current 2030 plan and be very well prepared to submit funding applications to the FTA when the time comes. Something also has to be done about the MTC, their lack of funding renders them impotent in the planning process.