Nashville Bits and Pieces

[markhollin]

Just for chuckles, may I present the Monty Python "Architect Sketch:"
 

 

[jmtunafish]

In its 2024 edition of Best-Performing Cities, the Milken Institute has Nashville ranked 6th among the country's 200 largest metros.  This is based on the typical things like job growth, wage growth, population growth, etc.  Nashville ranked 4th last year.

The top 10:

1. Austin
2. Raleigh
3. Boise
4. Salt Lake City
5. Provo
6. Nashville
7. NW Arkansas
8. Dallas
9. Olympia WA
10. Charlotte

Here's how Tennessee's other large metro areas ranked:

• Knoxville - 28th
• Chattanooga - 46th
• Clarksville - 95th
• Kingsport-Bristol - 118th
• Memphis - 175th

And here's how Tennessee's small metro areas ranked out of 203 small metro areas:

• Johnson City - 60th
• Morristown - 84th
• Cleveland - 127th
• Jackson - 140th

The full report is here:

https://milkeninstitute.org/best-performing-cities

[Luvemtall]

So is Murfreesboro considered its own metro area, or will it always be included with Nashville’s MSA? With 160,000 +/- and steadily growing, will it effectively become its own MSA ?

[UTgrad09]

9 hours ago, Luvemtall said:

So is Murfreesboro considered its own metro area, or will it always be included with Nashville’s MSA? With 160,000 +/- and steadily growing, will it effectively become its own MSA ?

Likely not anytime soon. MSAs are county based, and Smyrna and LaVergne will continue to have significant ties to both Davidson and Williamson counties. They are even part of Nashville's urban area rather than Murfreesboro's.

Could it happen eventually? Perhaps if they change the criteria. 

[MLBrumby]

Isn't that what the dash is for in the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin MSA? I've seen that in several places. 

[Luvemtall]

Well if MSA’s are county based, both LaVergne and Smyrna are in Rutherford County. So why would they be part of Nashville’s urban growth boundary? I understand them being part of the overall Nashville region, but Murfreesboro is also on its way to surpassing Clarksville and Knoxville in terms of its population, and it’s rapidly growing. It’s just something that even after 19 years in Florida and 17 years here in Tennessee I can’t wrap myself around this County stuff and regional overlap. In my original home state of Connecticut, each city or town is its own entity. One flows right into another, there’s counties but they have no governess or power. I just don’t know how if Murfreesboro reaches say 200,000 it’s not going to be considered its own Metro area.

[UTgrad09]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Isn't that what the dash is for in the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin MSA? I've seen that in several places. 

 

1 hour ago, Luvemtall said:

Well if MSA’s are county based, both LaVergne and Smyrna are in Rutherford County. So why would they be part of Nashville’s urban growth boundary? I understand them being part of the overall Nashville region, but Murfreesboro is also on its way to surpassing Clarksville and Knoxville in terms of its population, and it’s rapidly growing. It’s just something that even after 19 years in Florida and 17 years here in Tennessee I can’t wrap myself around this County stuff and regional overlap. In my original home state of Connecticut, each city or town is its own entity. One flows right into another, there’s counties but they have no governess or power. I just don’t know how if Murfreesboro reaches say 200,000 it’s not going to be considered its own Metro area.

MLBrumby nailed it. Murfreesboro is considered to be a principal city within the Nashville metropolitan area. So is Franklin. So is Smyrna.

It's not just about population. Long Beach, California has 450,000+ people, but is not considered it's own metro area (it is also within Los Angeles County). Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Irvine all have 300,000+, and are even in a different county (Orange), yet none singularly nor all collectively have their own metro area (in this case, they have their own Metropolitan Division, as some very large MSAs are subdivided).

Even if Murfreesboro passes Clarksville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, it just isn't as independent as those places (though Clarksville is quickly being pulled into Nashville's orbit). Chattanooga, and especially Knoxville operate as much bigger cities than Murfreesboro, because they are the focus of their respective metro areas.

[chris holman]

17 hours ago, UTgrad09 said:

 

MLBrumby nailed it. Murfreesboro is considered to be a principal city within the Nashville metropolitan area. So is Franklin. So is Smyrna.

It's not just about population. Long Beach, California has 450,000+ people, but is not considered it's own metro area (it is also within Los Angeles County). Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Irvine all have 300,000+, and are even in a different county (Orange), yet none singularly nor all collectively have their own metro area (in this case, they have their own Metropolitan Division, as some very large MSAs are subdivided).

Even if Murfreesboro passes Clarksville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, it just isn't as independent as those places (though Clarksville is quickly being pulled into Nashville's orbit). Chattanooga, and especially Knoxville operate as much bigger cities than Murfreesboro, because they are the focus of their respective metro areas.

Figure 1: Tennessee maintained ten Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) in 2023. 44 Tennessee counties are in an MSA. 14 additional counties from five bordering states are also included in MSAs centered in Tennessee

[jmtunafish]

7 hours ago, chris holman said:

Figure 1: Tennessee maintained ten Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) in 2023. 44 Tennessee counties are in an MSA. 14 additional counties from five bordering states are also included in MSAs centered in Tennessee

 

And here's Middle Tennessee's urban areas per the Census Bureau.  An urban area is made up of contiguous census tracts that have a population of, I think, a minimum of 500 per square mile.  It's easy to see with this map why places like La Vergne and Mt Juliet are attached to Nashville's urban area instead of Murfreesboro and Lebanon, respectively.

[Luvemtall]

Well one thing I’ve learned over time, Lebanon will surely give Mt Juliet to whom ever is willing to take it! If it could become part of Davidson all the better, let’s just say there seems to be a little animosity going on there and Mt Juliet is usually referred to as “ that town to the west” in Lebanon. 

[Luvemtall]

9 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

 

And here's Middle Tennessee's urban areas per the Census Bureau.  An urban area is made up of contiguous census tracts that have a population of, I think, a minimum of 500 per square mile.  It's easy to see with this map why places like La Vergne and Mt Juliet are attached to Nashville's urban area instead of Murfreesboro and Lebanon, respectively.

Thanks for that info, it also signifies to me that the census bureau seems to separate and define Murfreesboro and Lebanon as their own urban area. Otherwise it would be in the mustard colored Nashville area as is LaVergne and Mt Juliet. 

So, it kinda goes back to my original question. I think at some point , if Murfreesboro continues to expand and grow it will someday become its own market. A MSA that maybe includes areas to the east and southeast, a sub region to the Nashville area 

[smeagolsfree]

18 hours ago, chris holman said:

Figure 1: Tennessee maintained ten Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) in 2023. 44 Tennessee counties are in an MSA. 14 additional counties from five bordering states are also included in MSAs centered in Tennessee

The way the feds do things is downright baffling sometimes. To have Johnsonson City disconnected with the rest of the Tri Cities is downright Stupid. People live, work, and shop between all three cities and have for the longest. The city limits actually touch. 

For Morristown the Rinky Dink city it is to have their own little fiefdom is beyond stupid as well. It needs to be included with Knoxville's and the same goes for Cleveland. An argument can be made for Clarksville to be included with the Nashville MSA as well.

[Hey_Hey]

There’s also an employment requirement and interconnectivity between counties. Like UT stated before, MSAs are defined by counties, so a county is either in or out, all or nothing. The determination is made by looking at employment crossover between counties, and there is a TON of employment crossover between Murfreesboro and other primary cities in the MSA. I believe the census bureau uses the community survey to do this. I’ve taken one in the past and it asks what zip code I worked in.  Tremendous numbers of people drive the I-24 corridor in both directions for work, and there are also tons of people driving 840 to Brentwood/Franklin to work in Cool Springs and Maryland Farms. 
 

Murfreesboro will never be its own MSA because it makes up such an important part of the Nashville-Franklin-Murfreesboro MSA, and as the area grows those connections become even more ingrained. 
 

The bigger question is in regards to Clarksville. Clarksville is being drawn into Nashville-Murfreesboro-Franklin orbit quickly, especially as growth to the north accelerates into Robertson County. The only issue is that Clarksville and Hopkinsville are paired into one MSA, and Hopkinsville doesn’t have much connectivity to Nashville from an employment perspective. The anchor that keeps those two communities together is Fort Campbell which administratively lies in Kentucky, so that is going to be a tough hurdle to overcome given the numbers of people who live in Montgomery County and work on base.  As of now, Clarksville isn’t even part of the Nashville CSA, so that would have to happen first.

[Luvemtall]

I just wanted to pass this along, the Real Estate/construction company that my wife and I are investors with just brought a few housing units to market on Thursday. They sold within 24 hours, one in Bellevue went 15,000 over asking. Just an interesting insight to the market, as things are still moving! We put 6 total units to market last month and all of them have also sold within 3 weeks on market, making for 10 units sold within a month. Things may not be what they were pre pandemic, but definitely not as bleak as some might think.

[PaulChinetti]

Where they sold to people or investors, do you know?

[Luvemtall]

39 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

Where they sold to people or investors, do you know?

To individuals, we try not to entertain offers that feel like they are going the STR route if possible. It’s a fine line, but we all feel that way because we don’t want to contribute to the loss of a neighborhood, our goal is to contribute to the overall value and success of our community. Our realtor has over 30 years of experience and is a hometown native who lives in Green Hills. I can’t disclose their identities, as it’s a condition of our contract and we are all friends but everything goes though the proper process and permits with Metro.

[PaulChinetti]

Just wondering. Thanks for the answer!

[BnaBreaker]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:27 AM, smeagolsfree said:

The way the feds do things is downright baffling sometimes. To have Johnsonson City disconnected with the rest of the Tri Cities is downright Stupid. People live, work, and shop between all three cities and have for the longest. The city limits actually touch. 

For Morristown the Rinky Dink city it is to have their own little fiefdom is beyond stupid as well. It needs to be included with Knoxville's and the same goes for Cleveland. An argument can be made for Clarksville to be included with the Nashville MSA as well.

The Cleveland one is especially baffling to me.  It's so close to Chattanooga...  only about 25 miles as the crow flies which is closer than I-840 is from downtown Nashville.  What's so special about it that it deserves to be it's own thing?   To me it seems much more connected to Chattanooga than Dalton does, but somehow Dalton is "metro Chattanooga,"  even though it's technically further away, in a different state, and on the other side of mountains.  Big shoulder shrug there.  

Edited February 18 by BnaBreaker

[jmtunafish]

50 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

The Cleveland one is especially baffling to me.  It's so close to Chattanooga...  only about 25 miles as the crow flies which is closer than I-840 is from downtown Nashville.  What's so special about it that it deserves to be it's own thing?   To me it seems much more connected to Chattanooga than Dalton does, but somehow Dalton is "metro Chattanooga,"  even though it's technically further away, in a different state, and on the other side of mountains.  Big shoulder shrug there.  

Dalton is its own metropolitan area, just like Cleveland.  But both Dalton and Cleveland are included in Chattanooga's Combined Statistical Area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_metropolitan_area,_Georgia

[Luvemtall]

This is so confusing, that’s why I was asking about Murfreesboro having its own MSA . The Boro’s population already exceeds that of the whole Dalton MSA and is about the same distance from Nashville as Dalton is from Chattanooga, yet I’m told it will never stand on its own! What gives?

2 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

Dalton is its own metropolitan area, just like Cleveland.  But both Dalton and Cleveland are included in Chattanooga's Combined Statistical Area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_metropolitan_area,_Georgia

 

[BnaBreaker]

9 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

Dalton is its own metropolitan area, just like Cleveland.  But both Dalton and Cleveland are included in Chattanooga's Combined Statistical Area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_metropolitan_area,_Georgia

Oh that's right, Dalton is in Whitfield County not Walker County.  

[markhollin]

Larges Municipalities in the Nashville Metro from NBJ:
 

[KJHburg]

Nashville is listed in the top 10 with CBRE's attractive investment market for properties.   Along with Charlotte, Raleigh and the usual suspects.

2024 U.S. Investor Intentions Survey | CBRE

[fishsticks176]

 

Nashville 2015 vs 2024

Credit to Penny Adams Photography

[MorganRehnberg]

Interesting chart posted on Reddit today. 
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/ITVjxRK3IP