RVA Development 2024 Predictions

[I miss RVA]

@eandslee-- I'm reposting your post here in its own thread so it will have, as you suggested, some dedicated space that we can circle back to it and see how things come to pass a year from now.

eandslee

• 
• Members+
• •  5.2k
• Location: Springfield, Virginia

 

Posted 3 hours ago

Okay...it's New Year's Eve and since tomorrow is the first day of 2024, let's hear your 2024 predictions and hopes.  I'll start.  Here are mine:

 

1) Prediction - RIC will, at least, get an international flight route announced (maybe even started) this year...and one other major route announcement/new airline

2) Prediction - RIC will surpass 5 Million passengers in CY 2024

3) Prediction - I'll go out on a limb on this one and predict one more major downtown development outside of the ones we already know about (City Center, DD, Sauer Center, etc.) - I'm thinking a mixed-use tower somewhere downtown

4) Hope/Prediction - Henrico will start construction on the GreenCity Arena this year

5) Hope - The new Baseball Stadium will begin construction this year (I don't have a lot of faith that this will get started this year, but I hope I'm proven wrong)

6) Hope - I'm really hoping we get another major employer announced for the Richmond Metro Area...you know, one of the "Big Fish" we all talk about that employs 10,000+ and pays 6-digit salaries

7) Hope - Hoping the developer (Richmond Community Development Partners) with the 30/40-story hotel tower in its plan gets picked for the City Center project and that we get more clarity on the reality of what will actually get built

8 - Prediction   - Hourigan finally demolishes and starts building it's residential tower at the Southern States grain silo in Manchester

9) Prediction - We see another MAJOR development of 10+ stories in the Manchester area this year and that Avery Hall breaks ground on its major tower development on the Manchester Riverfront

10) Prediction - for this last one, I'll predict that we see a major development announced that was not even on the radar screen - a complete surprise!  

All-in-all, I'm predicting an awesome development year for Richmond.  We'll see how much of what I've listed below comes to fruition by the end of the year.  We need to post these where we can reference them at the end of the year to see how well we did.

Edited January 1 by I miss RVA

[I miss RVA]

14 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

@eandslee-- am reposting your post here in its own thread so it will have, as you suggested, some dedicated space that we can circle back to it and see how things come to pass a year from now.

eandslee

• 
• Members+
• •  5.2k
• Location: Springfield, Virginia

 

Posted 3 hours ago

Okay...it's New Year's Eve and since tomorrow is the first day of 2024, let's hear your 2024 predictions and hopes.  I'll start.  Here are mine:

 

1) Prediction - RIC will, at least, get an international flight route announced (maybe even started) this year...and one other major route announcement/new airline

2) Prediction - RIC will surpass 5 Million passengers in CY 2024

3) Prediction - I'll go out on a limb on this one and predict one more major downtown development outside of the ones we already know about (City Center, DD, Sauer Center, etc.) - I'm thinking a mixed-use tower somewhere downtown

4) Hope/Prediction - Henrico will start construction on the GreenCity Arena this year

5) Hope - The new Baseball Stadium will begin construction this year (I don't have a lot of faith that this will get started this year, but I hope I'm proven wrong)

6) Hope - I'm really hoping we get another major employer announced for the Richmond Metro Area...you know, one of the "Big Fish" we all talk about that employs 10,000+ and pays 6-digit salaries

7) Hope - Hoping the developer (Richmond Community Development Partners) with the 30/40-story hotel tower in its plan gets picked for the City Center project and that we get more clarity on the reality of what will actually get built

8 - Prediction   - Hourigan finally demolishes and starts building it's residential tower at the Southern States grain silo in Manchester

9) Prediction - We see another MAJOR development of 10+ stories in the Manchester area this year and that Avery Hall breaks ground on its major tower development on the Manchester Riverfront

10) Prediction - for this last one, I'll predict that we see a major development announced that was not even on the radar screen - a complete surprise!  

All-in-all, I'm predicting an awesome development year for Richmond.  We'll see how much of what I've listed below comes to fruition by the end of the year.  We need to post these where we can reference them at the end of the year to see how well we did.

@eandslee-- great predictions! From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend. My responses are in numerical order and correspond to your predictions/hopes:

1.) RIC/International route: agreed. I hope and pray it's more than just one or two routes. I'd like to see this really ramp up in 2024 in a BIG way. Ditto more routes and an additional airline on the domestic side. 

2.) RIC > 5 M passengers in 2024: agreed. I think that's the slam-dunk prediction of the year.

3.) Major downtown development: slowly falling interest rates and tapering off of inflation would go a long way toward making this happen. Not sure I see anything big spouting downtown in 2024, but who knows!

4.) GreenCity Arena construction: From your keyboard to God's eyes. Not holding my breath - but maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised.

5.) New ballpark at the Diamond District: Of the two, I think this has a better chance of getting underway in 2024 than does the arena. More pressure because of the risk of losing the Squirrels.

6.) Major employer/"Big Fish" development: From your keyboard to God's eyes. My big fear is that we lag behind a lot of our competitors in terms of infrastructure, but then again, anything's possible.

7.) RCDP bid for City Center: here's hoping. It would land us a signature tower and, of the four, this one looks REALLY well put together and cohesive. Interesting note: it's the one of the four that Dr. Slipek likes the best as well.

8.) Hourigan/Silos tower: not sure what the holdup has been - but I'm hoping this gets underway in 2024.

9.) Avery Hall and another big development in Manchester: I think we'll see some positive movement on Avery Hall. Just a hunch. Our gurus might have some insight to share with us. If I had to guess, I'd say toward the end of the year. As for another development: if the 201 Commerce Road site sells, we could see something there. The current owner of the property is very bullish on something big - specifically tall - rising there. Recall, he wanted to build a 16-story apartment buildings with a grocer on the ground floor. Methinks this one merits watching.

10.) Surprise announcement: I think this is a given - and it will happen dozens of times over in 2024. We're just getting this RVA party started - and I have a good feeling about 2024 that it will be a banner year for development in Richmond.

 

Edited January 1 by I miss RVA

[I miss RVA]

Almost right on cue - the RBS staff weigh in with their development predictions and a review of the state-of-play heading into 2024.

A very good read and right on time.

From today's Richmond BizSense:

https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/01/02/the-bizsense-crystal-ball-things-to-watch-in-2024/

[RiverYuppy]

* Wish: A coliseum redevelopment project gets announced -- with Gilpin Court redevelopment included in it!

* Hope: The old bank building that was embroiled in a years long boondoggle gets sold by the RRHA to a developer.

* Prediction: The Brookland Park Theater purchased over 4 years ago by a developer has a plan for it announced.

* Prediction: The old animal motel on Lombardy set to be redeveloped breaks ground

* Hope: The VUU redevelopment of the old motel on Lombardy  gets started

* Hope: Legends announces a high-rise building

* Prediction: We see a major development on Broad in the Arts District that isn't linked to VCU

* Prediction: As so much student housing comes online, the demand for Fan house rentals declines and we see more houses near VCU sold to home buyers.

* Prediction: Obama elementary begins to be seen as a "preferred" school, increasing the "preferred" elementary schools from 4 to 5. Two of them being in Northside.

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, RiverYuppy said:

* Wish: A coliseum redevelopment project gets announced -- with Gilpin Court redevelopment included in it!

* Hope: The old bank building that was embroiled in a years long boondoggle gets sold by the RRHA to a developer.

* Prediction: The Brookland Park Theater purchased over 4 years ago by a developer has a plan for it announced.

* Prediction: The old animal motel on Lombardy set to be redeveloped breaks ground

* Hope: The VUU redevelopment of the old motel on Lombardy  gets started

* Hope: Legends announces a high-rise building

* Prediction: We see a major development on Broad in the Arts District that isn't linked to VCU

* Prediction: As so much student housing comes online, the demand for Fan house rentals declines and we see more houses near VCU sold to home buyers.

* Prediction: Obama elementary begins to be seen as a "preferred" school, increasing the "preferred" elementary schools from 4 to 5. Two of them being in Northside.

Good stuff all the way around. From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend - ESPECIALLY #1 (Coliseum redev -with RCDP and their 40-story, 450-foot-tall hotel - the winner!!!) and  #6 - (a high-rise building being announced for the Legends site). Wowww...

Edited January 3 by I miss RVA

[BigBobbyG]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

Good stuff all the way around. From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend - ESPECIALLY #1 (Coliseum redev -with RCDP and their 40-story, 450-foot-tall hotel - the winner!!!) and  #6 - (a high-rise building being announced for the Legends site). Wowww...

Man I would eat my words against Legends so quick if they build a high rise residential building with a brewpub at the top. I hope someone got in their ear and was slyly like "Hey... I know how you can get an even better view".

[Child2021]

I will say that I'm very optimistic about our standing regarding the region, I mean jeez we could potentially add a little over 12,000 jobs in the future. 

 

Let's not also forget the amount of Government attention that we have been getting recently, whether it's the (FED) Government choosing to locate a Strategic medicine reserve here, or the fact that (State) VCU has been named one of the universities included within the Governors "Research Triangle of VA" program (pharmaceuticals).   I think that there will more Government funding within the region for years to come, especially as Petersburg re-establishes itself as a manufacturing center. 

I think there will a "fairly large" announcement of jobs in the region, and a continued relocation of Headquarters. We have been seeing a "soft" migration of headquarters (namely in the bio sector) from California, I really don't know why it could be happening but it's starting to happen. Those two companies are SLOPE, and Aditxt, they really don't get big announcements since they are small, but once a fiscal statement and it says "Richmond" as the HQ it just you know happens. 

I'm very well hoping that we get a new highrise Downtown. 

I am also hoping that we could get automaker to build a plant somewhere in southside or chesterfield (Chester area), so that it will spur further investment in that since the casino failed. Also, so that the port of richmond could finally come back as a viable port (too many factors preventing it). 

I think the continued migration to Richmond will continue if the cost of housing doesn't rise too relatively quickly compared to wages. 

I think the Kickers might make a little bit of noise this year. 

Spring rock green will continue to be developed. 

Short Pump / Innsbrook may see a  10+ foot building proposal (remember that last one was shot down due to neighborhood resistance) 

 Building height raises ire (richmond.com)

 

GRP_EconomicAnalysis_Dec2022.pdf (grpva.com)

[I miss RVA]

10 hours ago, Child2021 said:

I will say that I'm very optimistic about our standing regarding the region, I mean jeez we could potentially add a little over 12,000 jobs in the future. 

 

Let's not also forget the amount of Government attention that we have been getting recently, whether it's the (FED) Government choosing to locate a Strategic medicine reserve here, or the fact that (State) VCU has been named one of the universities included within the Governors "Research Triangle of VA" program (pharmaceuticals).   I think that there will more Government funding within the region for years to come, especially as Petersburg re-establishes itself as a manufacturing center. 

I think there will a "fairly large" announcement of jobs in the region, and a continued relocation of Headquarters. We have been seeing a "soft" migration of headquarters (namely in the bio sector) from California, I really don't know why it could be happening but it's starting to happen. Those two companies are SLOPE, and Aditxt, they really don't get big announcements since they are small, but once a fiscal statement and it says "Richmond" as the HQ it just you know happens. 

I'm very well hoping that we get a new highrise Downtown. 

I am also hoping that we could get automaker to build a plant somewhere in southside or chesterfield (Chester area), so that it will spur further investment in that since the casino failed. Also, so that the port of richmond could finally come back as a viable port (too many factors preventing it). 

I think the continued migration to Richmond will continue if the cost of housing doesn't rise too relatively quickly compared to wages. 

I think the Kickers might make a little bit of noise this year. 

Spring rock green will continue to be developed. 

Short Pump / Innsbrook may see a  10+ foot building proposal (remember that last one was shot down due to neighborhood resistance) 

 Building height raises ire (richmond.com)

 

GRP_EconomicAnalysis_Dec2022.pdf (grpva.com)

% !!!  GREAT analysis! From your keyboard to God's eyes, my friend.

[eandslee]

10 hours ago, Child2021 said:

I will say that I'm very optimistic about our standing regarding the region, I mean jeez we could potentially add a little over 12,000 jobs in the future. 

 

Let's not also forget the amount of Government attention that we have been getting recently, whether it's the (FED) Government choosing to locate a Strategic medicine reserve here, or the fact that (State) VCU has been named one of the universities included within the Governors "Research Triangle of VA" program (pharmaceuticals).   I think that there will more Government funding within the region for years to come, especially as Petersburg re-establishes itself as a manufacturing center. 

I think there will a "fairly large" announcement of jobs in the region, and a continued relocation of Headquarters. We have been seeing a "soft" migration of headquarters (namely in the bio sector) from California, I really don't know why it could be happening but it's starting to happen. Those two companies are SLOPE, and Aditxt, they really don't get big announcements since they are small, but once a fiscal statement and it says "Richmond" as the HQ it just you know happens. 

I'm very well hoping that we get a new highrise Downtown. 

I am also hoping that we could get automaker to build a plant somewhere in southside or chesterfield (Chester area), so that it will spur further investment in that since the casino failed. Also, so that the port of richmond could finally come back as a viable port (too many factors preventing it). 

I think the continued migration to Richmond will continue if the cost of housing doesn't rise too relatively quickly compared to wages. 

I think the Kickers might make a little bit of noise this year. 

Spring rock green will continue to be developed. 

Short Pump / Innsbrook may see a  10+ foot building proposal (remember that last one was shot down due to neighborhood resistance) 

 Building height raises ire (richmond.com)

 

GRP_EconomicAnalysis_Dec2022.pdf (grpva.com)

What are you thinking with regard to the Kickers “making noise?”  Man, I wish the team would go up to a higher league. I also remember that they were planning to make incremental changes to City Stadium…would love to see some new design - something cool that would continue to enhance the spectator’s experience (outside of a brand new stadium, which is not likely to happen). 

[Flood Zone]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

What are you thinking with regard to the Kickers “making noise?”  Man, I wish the team would go up to a higher league.

I'm also interested in that comment.

I do not know much about the business of soccer, but I do know that the Kickers were, well, kicked in favor of Loudoun United five years ago, yet the Kickers outdraw LU by pretty much a 2:1 ratio. So, I guess the play is to see how long LU can hang on.....

[ancientcarpenter]

On 1/4/2024 at 11:29 AM, eandslee said:

What are you thinking with regard to the Kickers “making noise?”  Man, I wish the team would go up to a higher league. I also remember that they were planning to make incremental changes to City Stadium…would love to see some new design - something cool that would continue to enhance the spectator’s experience (outside of a brand new stadium, which is not likely to happen). 

In my opinion, Kickers shouldn't build a new stadium just yet. If they build now, we risk seeing a small development.

 

I believe they should just keep opening up more space where they can find it, as the games are now packed with people each season but they can accommodate even more with the existing footprint.  Let the Kickers stadium demand to grow so that investors and Kickers can have an excuse/reason to build a medium size stadium in the future instead of something small now. Because, as we all know, once you build something like this it's a done deal for decades...rarely do they get massive upgrades afterwards. Let's let Kickers grow out of their (well fitting) clothes and get through the growing pains, thus creating a lot of buzz and momentum for a beautiful stadium instead of a mediocre one. 

Edited January 6 by ancientcarpenter

[wrldcoupe4]

Kickers would draw double with a proper facility…

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Kickers would draw double with a proper facility…

Totally makes sense. So here's the question: where could a new stadium be built?

[Flood Zone]

Same location. Plenty of space. Fairly convenient highway access. Likely preferable to putting it in western Chesterfield.

[123fakestreet]

I'm more interested in how the 2023 prediction turned out

[ancientcarpenter]

On 1/8/2024 at 10:33 AM, 123fakestreet said:

I'm more interested in how the 2023 prediction turned out

This would be a fun little analysis project for anyone that has a minute this week and way too much coffee!