The Greenville coronavirus thread

[gman430]

8 minutes ago, GvilleSC said:

I know folks who spent significant time in DC during this pandemic, who have since relocated to Kiawah to weather the crisis. Encouraging and permitting relocations such as this, will only bring more potential cases and exposure to South Carolina. It's a shame that opening beaches will encourage this behavior. 

They wanted to stay closed but decided to reopen them after the AG came out with his statement yesterday. However, other beaches are still staying closed which could lead to a lawsuit by the state.  More info here: https://www.postandcourier.com/health/covid19/some-sc-cities-lift-coronavirus-restrictions-when-faced-with-possible/article_96274a2e-7086-11ea-9974-cbf22b1b3a30.html

Edited March 28, 2020 by gman430

[Exile]

3 hours ago, NewlyUpstate said:

Bro, can you stop posting this uneducated uninformed bullcrap? Children's health defense is a well known anti-vac website.

Your classless response says it all....

[gman430]

Wake me up when this virus causes as many deaths as the flu. Until then, i’m going to the lake. 

[bikeoid]

41 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Wake me up when this virus causes as many deaths as the flu. Until then, i’m going to the lake. 

The difference between the coronavirus and the flu is the spreadability index - if it hits everyone at once and the hospitals overflow - good luck if you need any other type of medical care, not to mention taking out a significant number of first responders and health care providers.  Flu deaths are spread out over 7-8 months and are not as dangerous to providers.

Edited March 28, 2020 by bikeoid

[gman430]

14 minutes ago, bikeoid said:

The difference between the coronavirus and the flu is the spreadability index - if it hits everyone at once and the hospitals overflow - good luck if you need any other type of medical care, not to mention taking out a significant number of first responders and health care providers.  Flu deaths are spread out over 7-8 months and are not as dangerous to providers.

Ahhh...that makes sense. Good explanation. I’ll social distance at the lake.  A lot easier to do it there than at Walmart. This is especially true when you have a boat. Lol.

Edited March 28, 2020 by gman430

[cabelagent]

Interesting...

 

Good Read of Information.

The following is from Irene Ken physician, whose daughter is an Asst. Prof in infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University, quite informative.

* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).

By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.

* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only
-between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic).

But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.

They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.

* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.

* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.

* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.

* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.

-JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL
Thanks for the share Cindy Bazzle Sarvis and Dianne O'Quinn Messersmith

[apaladin]

11 hours ago, bikeoid said:

The difference between the coronavirus and the flu is the spreadability index - if it hits everyone at once and the hospitals overflow - good luck if you need any other type of medical care, not to mention taking out a significant number of first responders and health care providers.  Flu deaths are spread out over 7-8 months and are not as dangerous to providers.

There is much information and misinformation we really dont know what to think. When talking about the spreadability the cdc reported 4 million new flu cases in one week this season. Also supposedly 95% of the covid-19 cases are mild with no hospital visits. So if you reduce all these numbers ny 95% what does that leave. 

[gman]

Good interview with Dr. Fauci.

 

[bikeoid]

4 hours ago, apaladin said:

There is much information and misinformation we really dont know what to think. When talking about the spreadability the cdc reported 4 million new flu cases in one week this season. Also supposedly 95% of the covid-19 cases are mild with no hospital visits. So if you reduce all these numbers ny 95% what does that leave. 

4 million cases is just 10% of the typical total case count, in a situation where every doctor's office has access to seasonal flu test kits.    The relatively low numbers of CV-19 are somewhat related to unavailability of testing.  While many cases are mild, those requiring hospitalization throw a wrench into the system.  For example, where are the statistics that show 40+ healthcare workers in Italy die from the seasonal flu?

[vicupstate]

Fauci predicts 100-200k deaths in the US. We are at 2.2k now.  Even the low end would be worse than the typical flu season. To say nothing of the fact that would be over a much shorter time period.  

[apaladin]

38 minutes ago, vicupstate said:

Fauci predicts 100-200k deaths in the US. We are at 2.2k now.  Even the low end would be worse than the typical flu season. To say nothing of the fact that would be over a much shorter time period.  

Fauci is making the most of his 15 minutes of fame. There are only 600k cases worldwide. Almost 500k are mild with little or no symptons. Doesn't calculate at all. He is a fear monger.

 

21 hours ago, bikeoid said:

The difference between the coronavirus and the flu is the spreadability index - if it hits everyone at once and the hospitals overflow - good luck if you need any other type of medical care, not to mention taking out a significant number of first responders and health care providers.  Flu deaths are spread out over 7-8 months and are not as dangerous to providers.

There is much information and misinformation we really dont know what to think. When talking about the spreadability the cdc reported 4 million new flu cases in one week this season. Also supposedly 95% of the covid-19 cases are mild with no hospital visits. So if you reduce all these numbers ny 95% what does that leave. 

[vicupstate]

We had 650k deaths in 1918-19 when the population of the US was a small fraction of what it is now.

[apaladin]

Fauci’s prediction is less than the “expert” in in the UK that originally predicted 500,000 deaths there but has since revised it to under 20k and says the virus is only slightly worse than the flu. Again who you gonna believe. 

[vicupstate]

8 minutes ago, apaladin said:

Fauci’s prediction is less than the “expert” in in the UK that originally predicted 500,000 deaths there but has since revised it to under 20k and says the virus is only slightly worse than the flu. Again who you gonna believe. 

He has NOT revised his estimate at all.  He ran multiple models based on different scenarios.  The 500k estimate was based on doing nothing at all to stop or mitigate  it. 

[NewlyUpstate]

44 minutes ago, vicupstate said:

He has NOT revised his estimate at all.  He ran multiple models based on different scenarios.  The 500k estimate was based on doing nothing at all to stop or mitigate  it. 

Lol you just know so many of the "deniers" are going to go on and on about how it wasn't "that bad" without mentioning the drastic global shut down after this is all done. 

[apaladin]

i think it is pretty obvious that if and when this ends we are going to be in a depression like none of us fortunately have ever seen. So many small and even large businesses will not survive and the job loss will be huge. I have tried to support local restaurants by ordering take out but I can tell you from my experience many are not going to last long. I went to a very popular restaurant on Pelham Saturday at 6:30 and they had 2 orders ahead of mine. The other night I went to a popular Mexican restaurant and was the only person there. What is going to happen when a lot of restaurants start closing and everyone is forced to eat at home. Will there be a run on food? Will there be a TP type fiasco with food? People can’t live on unemployment, believe me I’ve been there recently. The most you can draw in SC is $326 a week. The government cannot keep everyone up. Yes, most live paycheck to paycheck. People that do have a little savings will see it go away quickly. This is going to be devastating financially to most if this goes past April if it’s not already. The virus is bad but the ramifications could/will be far worse. This is my biggest fear now. 

[StrangeCock]

On 3/28/2020 at 11:42 AM, gman430 said:

Wake me up when this virus causes as many deaths as the flu. Until then, i’m going to the lake. 

  We will easily pass that by the end of April. Probably sooner.

On 3/28/2020 at 9:06 AM, gman430 said:

They wanted to stay closed but decided to reopen them after the AG came out with his statement yesterday. However, other beaches are still staying closed which could lead to a lawsuit by the state.  More info here: https://www.postandcourier.com/health/covid19/some-sc-cities-lift-coronavirus-restrictions-when-faced-with-possible/article_96274a2e-7086-11ea-9974-cbf22b1b3a30.html

I've ever seen a leader more aggressively determined to murder his own constituents.

[Exile]

10 hours ago, NewlyUpstate said:

Lol you just know so many of the "deniers" are going to go on and on about how it wasn't "that bad" without mentioning the drastic global shut down after this is all done. 

 

OK, just FTR, why the ad hominem? That's a fallacy, in case you're not aware. As was the genetic fallacy in your earlier post. It really does undermine your credibility, except with those predisposed to think in the same manner--i.e., ill of others who disagree with them (apparently).

The fact is, no matter what the outcome is, neither you nor I will have any clue about the effectiveness of the shutdown because the alternative course wasn't taken. There's no comparative data. Only hypotheses.

However, I agree with you this far: anyone who makes the kind of appeal that you mention is in fact making a baseless appeal. But conversely, anyone who says "see how effective the shutdown was" is making an equally baseless appeal, in both cases because there's no way to distinguish correlation from causation (another fallacy).

[bikeoid]

5 hours ago, apaladin said:

i think it is pretty obvious that if and when this ends we are going to be in a depression like none of us fortunately have ever seen. So many small and even large businesses will not survive and the job loss will be huge. 

These are good points - we can predict the rate and impact from the virus from experience and modeling.   The modeling changes based on the success of our unprecedented social isolation and hygiene exercises.

 But as you note, the impacts of economic shutdown have a very real consequence - there will be people that die because of a shutdown.    We have no previous experience or models to use as a comparison to make an informed decision whether it is better to stay isolated or that we need to get back to work to avoid an even worse outcome.   I hope  research can come up with solutions to apply well before the arrival of a vaccine.

[gvegascple]

1 hour ago, Exile said:

 

OK, just FTR, why the ad hominem? That's a fallacy, in case you're not aware. As was the genetic fallacy in your earlier post. It really does undermine your credibility, except with those predisposed to think in the same manner--i.e., ill of others who disagree with them (apparently).

The fact is, no matter what the outcome is, neither you nor I will have any clue about the effectiveness of the shutdown because the alternative course wasn't taken. There's no comparative data. Only hypotheses.

However, I agree with you this far: anyone who makes the kind of appeal that you mention is in fact making a baseless appeal. But conversely, anyone who says "see how effective the shutdown was" is making an equally baseless appeal, in both cases because there's no way to distinguish correlation from causation (another fallacy).

I love a good debate that invokes argument fallacy principles.  While I may not agree with some of the points that you make, I can appreciate your tactics.   I find that my arguments go down the ad hominem path when frustrated or triggered.  I see many go there when they run out of arguments, many seem to have  a list of political talking points to parrot and when those are exhausted, they go to one of the fallacies.  Some however, come right out of the gate with them (false equivalence, strawman, slippery slope, ad hominem, name calling, etc).   Attacking your source is a legitimate response if they are antivax and have a demonstrable bias or agenda though.  Not that they might not get something right every once in a while but generally, if the argument is sound, a more reliable source can be found.

[apaladin]

Now Dr. Debbie Brix has come out with a best case scenario of 100-200k U.S. deaths. Currently we have about 2,500. Long way to go. The economy is in deep doo-doo.

[vicupstate]

^^ We were at 1,000 deaths on Friday. 

[gvegascple]

I am starting to see the June 1st date popping up more as a possible date for things to start their long trek back to normal.   two more months of things getting worse and peaking before we are over the hump.  I have seen articles on truckers average age and health putting them and supply lines at risk.  That TP might be a long way off and more items might become hard or impossible to get if that happens.  I noticed some items back on the shelves when I was looking for items I was unable to get before, but not cleaners or paper products.  Produce and meats, pasta, sauce,  and some canned goods were back.  Ice cream was cleaned out, and dishwasher and clothes detergent were almost gone too.  

[gman]

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/local/greenville/downtown/2020/03/30/coronavirus-greenville-stay-home-require-6-feet-distance-close-nonessential-business/5089580002/

[gman]

My pillow guy doing an info commercial during the daily briefing. What in the world is going on?