RVA growth 1950 to today

[Child2021]

Data Reports | Chesterfield County, VA

Data Reports for number of housing units approved for chesterfield for the next 10 years. 

[wrldcoupe4]

GRP shared an interesting stat on social media. Since 2020, nearly half of all population growth for Virginia is in the Richmond region. That translates to 3.1%  estimated growth. By comparison to closest regions:

Cville: 2.5%

Nova: 1.2%

Hampton Roads: 0.2%

[rjp212]

New Kent County was 10th in the nation for the highest percentage growth last year.

Other 2023 Estimates:

Richmond City:  229, 247 (I still think this is low but puts us within 1700 of Norfolk)

Chesterfield County: 383,873 (nearly 20k since 2020!)

Henrico County: 334,760 (down roughly 200 since 2020)

Hanover: 114,148

Goochland: 27,197

Powhatan: 32,105

Charles City County:  6,610

Petersburg:  33,309 (Growth seems to have flatlined which is a good thing after years of decline)

Hopewell: 22,752

Colonial Heights: 18,393

 

 

 

Edited March 18 by rjp212

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, rjp212 said:

New Kent County was 10th in the nation for the highest percentage growth last year.

Other 2023 Estimates:

Richmond City:  229, 247 (I still think this is low but puts us within 1700 of Norfolk)

Chesterfield County: 383,873 (nearly 20k since 2020!)

Henrico County: 334,760 (down roughly 200 since 2020)

Hanover: 114,148

Goochland: 27,197

Powhatan: 32,105

Charles City: 29,239

Petersburg:  33,309 (Growth seems to have flatlined which is a good thing after years of decline)

Hopewell: 22,752

Colonial Heights: 18,393

 

 

 

The two of us posted these at about the same time on two different threads.

https://forum.urbanplanet.org/topic/20234-richmond-off-topic-postings/?do=findComment&comment=1914664

 

We're 1,683 residents behind Norfolk - and if 2023's trends hold -- or (hopefully) increase directionally -- in 2024, we'll surge past them this year - the first time that the River City will have a larger population than the Mermaid City since the 1950s. Even with all of that, we still trail Chesapeake by a considerable margin, and they picked up 1,500 or so residents in 2023 and are really surging. They're somewhat of a surprise - kinda the "dark horse" that slipped through along the rail while everyone's attention was on the bigger "name" horses (or cities, in this case).

ALSO - I 100% agree, @rjp212 that RVA's numbers are low. I've maintained that the census tallies were at least a good 7,000-plus short in 2020 due to all the problems even taking the census. IF in fact that's the case, our "real" number should actually be checking in somewhere north of 237K, not just under 230K.

We'll see if there's a "true-up" in the 2030 census. If I were a betting man, I'd hedge my bet that there will be.

 

Edited March 14 by I miss RVA

[Rooster]

29 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

The two of us posted these at about the same time on two different threads.

https://forum.urbanplanet.org/topic/20234-richmond-off-topic-postings/?do=findComment&comment=1914664

 

We're 1,683 residents behind Norfolk - and if 2023's trends hold -- or (hopefully) increase directionally -- in 2024, we'll surge past them this year - the first time that the River City will have a larger population than the Mermaid City since the 1950s. Even with all of that, we still trail Chesapeake by a considerable margin, and they picked up 1,500 or so residents in 2023 and are really surging. They're somewhat of a surprise - kinda the "dark horse" that slipped through along the rail while everyone's attention was on the bigger "name" horses (or cities, in this case).

ALSO - I 100% agree, @rjp212 that RVA's numbers are low. I've maintained that the census tallies were at least a good 7,000-plus short in 2020 due to all the problems even taking the census. IF in fact that's the case, our "real" number should actually be checking in somewhere north of 237K, not just under 230K.

We'll see if there's a "true-up" in the 2030 census. If I were a betting man, I'd hedge my bet that there will be.

 

lol - as for Richmond's numbers being low, Im in the city and never got around to filling out those census forms in 2000

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, Rooster said:

lol - as for Richmond's numbers being low, Im in the city and never got around to filling out those census forms in 2000

You mean 2020, right?

All things considered, methinks we were all a little - shall we say - "busy" - just trying to stay alive in 2020 to fool with filling out census forms. I'm sure there were a TON of misses all across the country.

And if you happen to be married, have a family, etc., - then it's more than one person left off the tally. I know one household doesn't make THAT much of a difference, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that the 2020 tally for Richmond city was off by at least 7,000. Most estimates had us coming into 2020 on the high side of 233K -- and I was thinking that something like 234K or 235K wasn't out of the realm of possibility - not the 226K that was officially published. 

Edited March 15 by I miss RVA

[KJHburg]

I was looking at the metro numbers today with these estimates and Richmond MSA gained 11,494 people .85% growth vs VA Beach Norfolk Chesapeake Hampton etc grew only 1779 people at .09%.  

Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Totals: 2020-2023 (census.gov)

you can download the numbers here it is an Excel spreadsheet.

and here is the press release from today

More Counties Saw Population Gains in 2023 (census.gov)

[I miss RVA]

Wow - using the metro total of 11,494 and the state total of 36,599, metro RVA accounted for 31.4% of the Commonwealth's 2023 growth. THAT, my friends, is pretty darn impressive.

[Child2021]

I very well think that Weldon Cooper's forecast could be in jeopardy in some counties around the area, especially Chesterfield & New Kent.  There's also a good chance that the estimates could be off a bit, last some cities witnessed during the 2020 collection of census results. 

 

Henrico’s Vithoulkas: Census population estimates are wrong - The Henrico Citizen

[eandslee]

13 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

I very well think that Weldon Cooper's forecast could be in jeopardy in some counties around the area, especially Chesterfield & New Kent.  There's also a good chance that the estimates could be off a bit, last some cities witnessed during the 2020 collection of census results. 

 

Henrico’s Vithoulkas: Census population estimates are wrong - The Henrico Citizen

Yeah that 207 figure seemed ridiculously low for one of the fastest growing counties with respect to home building and business relocations, etc.  Glad John Vitoulkas came out to refute the data. I’d like to see what updated numbers they come back with, but if Vitoulkas’s claim is true that Henrico gained 5,100 new residents (combined with Chesterfield’s growth at 5,500 in the past year), that almost 11,000 new residents just in those two counties alone in just 12 months!  With theses additional people in the metro area, I think of the additional demand for flights at RIC, additional traffic on the roads, etc. which will further validate the need for the Pulse and its expansion into Henrico and Chesterfield!  Hope this growth continues (even accelerate).  If it does, we’ll continue to see more construction projects in the area - the kind we like to see get built from us on this forum!

[plain]

On 3/14/2024 at 5:34 PM, rjp212 said:

New Kent County was 10th in the nation for the highest percentage growth last year.

Other 2023 Estimates:

Richmond City:  229, 247 (I still think this is low but puts us within 1700 of Norfolk)

Chesterfield County: 383,873 (nearly 20k since 2020!)

Henrico County: 334,760 (down roughly 200 since 2020)

Hanover: 114,148

Goochland: 27,197

Powhatan: 32,105

Charles City: 29,239

Petersburg:  33,309 (Growth seems to have flatlined which is a good thing after years of decline)

Hopewell: 22,752

Colonial Heights: 18,393

 

 

 

I don't know if this is a typo or they messed up somewhere or something, but Charles City County absolutely does NOT have anywhere close to that population. 

[ancientcarpenter]

On 3/16/2024 at 11:47 PM, plain said:

I don't know if this is a typo or they messed up somewhere or something, but Charles City County absolutely does NOT have anywhere close to that population. 

I'm also confused by 29k but also VERY confused that google says only 26 people like there too, down from peak 213 population in 2015:

 

[rjp212]

That's a typo on my end.  Charles City County is estimated at 6,610.  @ancientcarpenter the 26 is an estimate for the "town" of Charles City, not the County.

[Child2021]

I am kind of of concerned about the "natural rate" being so low at a measly 1,800k births minus deaths, and this is not just for the city but for the region as a whole.  

[KJHburg]

Saw this yesterday.  The VA larger cities have really down but not Richmond.    This is with the 2023 estimates released this week. 

[Child2021]

Richmond needs to build more houses and apartments, that's what might be holding back the city at this point. 

[I miss RVA]

9 minutes ago, Child2021 said:

Richmond needs to build more houses and apartments, that's what might be holding back the city at this point. 

It's part of the problem. I do think the recent and current boom in residential construction in the city will result in a larger net increase in the city's population in forthcoming mid-decade estimates. Keep in mind that while considered "official" the Census Bureau estimates are not the only data points that are examined, and there are other estimates that place the city's population more in the range of 233K to 234K. Recall the school of thought that there was a HUGE census undercount in 2020 because of the pandemic and other issues related to the administration at that time. I've been maintaining for the past four years that across the board, cities will see significant "true-ups" in their 2030 census totals.

[Child2021]

Chesterfield County is extending its lead as the largest locality in Greater Richmond after adding more residents the past four years than the rest of the region combined.

Between April 2020 and July 2023, the county increased by 18,565 residents, the highest total not only in the region but also every other city and county in Virginia, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The next-highest total increase belongs to Loudoun County in Northern Virginia, which rose by 13,642 people.

According to Casey, Chesterfield has grown more than 1,000 businesses in the last year, which has contributed to more people living in the county.

 

Not surprisingly, Chesterfield's size is reflected in its student population as well. The region's largest school division includes more than 64,000 students.

 

To better host all of those students, the county adopted the FY2025-FY2029 Capital Improvement Plan, which includes a mix of 12 new, rebuilt and expanded schools, plus one gym expansion.

 

With more than 423 square miles of land, county officials said there is enough space for additional school, housing and retail projects.

Chesterfield leads Virginia in population growth, per Census (richmond.com)

[I miss RVA]

3 hours ago, Child2021 said:

Chesterfield County is extending its lead as the largest locality in Greater Richmond after adding more residents the past four years than the rest of the region combined.

Between April 2020 and July 2023, the county increased by 18,565 residents, the highest total not only in the region but also every other city and county in Virginia, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The next-highest total increase belongs to Loudoun County in Northern Virginia, which rose by 13,642 people.

According to Casey, Chesterfield has grown more than 1,000 businesses in the last year, which has contributed to more people living in the county.

 

Not surprisingly, Chesterfield's size is reflected in its student population as well. The region's largest school division includes more than 64,000 students.

 

To better host all of those students, the county adopted the FY2025-FY2029 Capital Improvement Plan, which includes a mix of 12 new, rebuilt and expanded schools, plus one gym expansion.

 

With more than 423 square miles of land, county officials said there is enough space for additional school, housing and retail projects.

Chesterfield leads Virginia in population growth, per Census (richmond.com)

If Chesterfield maintains this pace of growth, it will top 400,000 by 2026 or 2027. VERY impressive!