RVA growth 1950 to today

[flaneur]

For all the urban nerds into population figures and the growth or decline of our metropolitan areas, here's an older article that has an interesting table showing populations of all the top metros in 1950 (when OMB first defined metro areas) in comparison to 2010. OMB has since changed its definition from metro to MSA (e.g., Forth Worth now listed with Dallas), but it still largely reflects our main metropolitan areas with regional economies centered around a core central city. Fascinating to see that in 1950 metro RVA at 328,000 was almost half the size of metro Atlanta, almost twice the size of metro Charlotte, Raleigh, and Austin, and on par with metro Nashville. We had a period from around 1970 to 2000 where we got bypassed, but good to see we are now back on the upswing. I think our historic lack of working together as a region (so many what ifs had the Richmond and Henrico proposed merger of 1961 passed), our failure to land the Piedmont Airlines hub (went to Charlotte), the intense racial legacies here and how we chose to handle integration (see annexation battles and massive resistance), and the deregulation of interstate banking (not our fault and NC happened to have a loophole and readiness to pick up banks from other states), among other issues, really contributed to the stagnant decades.  But I think we finally have momentum and a positive future ahead. Fascinating to see how other cities fared over the last half century plus: Birmingham (same as Atlanta in 1950 and now smaller than RVA); Cleveland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh (almost unchanged since 1950 when they were top 14 metros); the significant fall of Youngstown and Wheeling from the top 50 metros list; the rise of places such as Las Vegas (less than 50,000 in the whole metro in 1950); and so on.  If we can work more as a region, really acknowledge structural racism and work to tackle racially concentrated poverty, add transit options beyond the car as well as high speed rail to DC, and build on the authentic and unique architecture, art, food, drink, river, etc. elements that give the region soul and character, then I think we will see RVA make some large metropolitan growth in the decades ahead. 

http://www.newgeography.com/content/003821-metropolitan-dispersion-1950-2012

Edited August 3, 2018 by flaneur

[Icetera]

I love this kind of data!

Edited August 3, 2018 by Icetera

[flaneur]

I know. It's fascinating to see the dynamism of our metros and then look into the underlying factors such as the economy, politics, and so on to try to understand what accounts for growth or decline, and most importantly, why and how some regions continue to thrive for long, sustained periods.

[Icetera]

10 minutes ago, flaneur said:

I know. It's fascinating to see the dynamism of our metros and then look into the underlying factors such as the economy, politics, and so on to try to understand what accounts for growth or decline, and most importantly, why and how some regions continue to thrive for long, sustained periods.

Amusingly, I just realized I already have this article bookmarked

[eandslee]

I think it’s amazing how well positioned Richmond was to become  the south’s/mid-atlantic’s largest city and then....what happened?!  Most of what happened is mentioned in the first post above, it’s just crazy to think that Richmond was just one or two decisions away from becoming a major US city.  Interesting.  Not sure Richmond will ever become one of the biggest in the US, but it can still become quite significant.  I’m excited to watch it happen!  We’re moving in the right direction. 

Edited August 4, 2018 by eandslee

[wrldcoupe4]

Virginia’s banking laws (at the time), Dillon rule, independent city concept, and annexation moratorium hurt all of Virginia’s cities and in turn its metro areas. Too much general assembly micro-management. 

[Brent114]

I don't really see how Richmond or Virginia really missed out on much.  Other cities and states grew bigger but they  also lag Virginia in education, income and health outcomes.  

[flaneur]

Everything in life involves trade-offs and there are so many variables and factors involved, as well as ways to measure and interpret, success and outcomes. I agree that bigger isn't always better. In this case (and not talking about states), I find the dynamism of cities/metros fascinating. In the 1970s so many had written off both Seattle (see Boeing's downsizing and "will the last person leaving Seattle please turn out the lights?" billboards) and NYC, and today they are economic juggernauts, albeit with some serious cons to all this growth too such as displacement, housing affordability, traffic, etc.  With greater RVA, I think we had some interesting moments and opportunities that could have played out very differently (and that works both ways pro and con). However, I do think that the failed merger with Henrico in 1961 is largely a net negative for the region from the perspective that we duplicate services  (infrastructure, schools, utilities, etc.) and we fall farther down the food chain in terms of federal and state funding as well as legislative clout at all levels of government. Had the consolidation happened, Richmond would have a population of approximately 560,000 today and cover a geography of about 300 square miles (Charlotte is 305 square miles and Memphis 317 for comparison). That would put us at 31 or 32 in the largest US cities list by population and make us the largest city in Virginia (VA Beach has 450,000 in 244 square miles), and would not only affect funding, but also likely perceptions too from a host of sectors. I also think our not securing a hub airport likely caused many missed business opportunities, and thus jobs and a more robust economy. Of course missing out on some of the likely growth might also mean that we ended up not destroying as much of our historic architecture and we maintained an overall better quality of life. A merger may also have hindered the growth of African-American political power. Again, trade-offs. Some people are fine with RVA as is and may never want it to change. Others hope we'll hit some likely unfeasible major city level. And others want something in between. But it's all interesting nonetheless. Fun stuff. Hopefully we have a positive future as a region and grow in a way that considers the concerns of all our residents while positioning the region as a place people want to continue to live, work, and visit.

Edited August 6, 2018 by flaneur

[Shakman]

Whenever an opportunity passes, it means there is something better coming.  

[drayrichmond]

Well put Flaneur.

Anybody think a merger with Henrico could ever happen in the future?

[blopp1234]

39 minutes ago, drayrichmond said:

Well put Flaneur.

Anybody think a merger with Henrico could ever happen in the future?

I don’t think it could ever happen, when Henrico was smaller, it could have worked in the 60s, but they and the suburban residents would never want to join with the city as they associate it with poor schools and services that could hurt their housing values.

[drayrichmond]

3 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

I don’t think it could ever happen, when Henrico was smaller, it could have worked in the 60s, but they and the suburban residents would never want to join with the city as they associate it with poor schools and services that could hurt their housing values.

Ah good call, it's obvious now that you say it, but yeah it would probably affect property values

[rjp212]

New Population estimates were released today for 2018.   Seems we grew just shy of 2,000 people between 2017-2018.  I feel they are under counting, but I guess we won't know until 2020.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

[rjp212]

Also, seems we are the 12th fastest growing out of 133 counties and cities in Virginia.

http://www.nbc12.com/2019/04/18/data-shows-richmond-growing-faster-than-state-nation/

[RiverYuppy]

Another thing to keep in mind is this is net population change.  In neighborhoods in Northside and Manchester a lot of new housing is simply rehabbing of old rundown housing.  My house for example was built as a single family home in 1924, eventually turned into a duplex, then turned back into a single family home. I rent out two rooms, but on net me moving into that house probably ended up in a net loss of population for RVA.

That can't last forever though.  Eventually there is going to be demand for new units of housing. You can already start to see it as more apartments are being planned for Chamberlayne and the ones being built on Brook.

 

[Downtowner]

http://www.nbc12.com/2019/04/22/richmonds-population-growing-faster-than-state-nation/

Wow I had no idea we’ve added almost 100,000 people since 2010 98,000 to be exact that’s crazy good. Very good news for metro rva. Hopefully the city total population will continue to climb as well. We are at the 1.3 million threshold now which is very cool to see happen.


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[rjp212]

Saw this on Reddit and I'm skeptical about these numbers.   But the 2019 numbers show that Richmond LOST 78 residents, while Henrico gained 2,006 and Chesterfield gained 4,403. 

https://demographics.coopercenter.org/virginia-population-estimates/

[marinog711]

I was shocked to see that as well... hopefully that is not the case 

We just had a baby so there is a  +1 !!!

30 minutes ago, rjp212 said:

Saw this on Reddit and I'm skeptical about these numbers.   But the 2019 numbers show that Richmond LOST 78 residents, while Henrico gained 2,006 and Chesterfield gained 4,403. 

https://demographics.coopercenter.org/virginia-population-estimates/

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by marinog711

[Icetera]

I moved back over the line (I can see it from my window), sorry

[Icetera]

1 hour ago, rjp212 said:

Saw this on Reddit and I'm skeptical about these numbers.   But the 2019 numbers show that Richmond LOST 78 residents, while Henrico gained 2,006 and Chesterfield gained 4,403. 

https://demographics.coopercenter.org/virginia-population-estimates/

Nearly every city on that list shows a drop.  That right there is suspicious.

[vaceltic]

Weldon Cooper was flat out wrong about Richmond population projections in 2010. It predicted a net loss by 2020. We have EXCEEDED even their 2040 estimates from back in 2010 by 10,000+ people.

Dont believe everything you read.

Edited January 31, 2020 by vaceltic

[rjp212]

8 hours ago, vaceltic said:

Weldon Cooper was flat out wrong about Richmond population projections in 2010. It predicted a net loss by 2020. We have EXCEEDED even their 2040 estimates from back in 2010 by 10,000+ people.

Dont believe everything you read.

Hence why we raised skepticism about the numbers to open discussion. 

[marinog711]

I’m not taking any chances... I’m just going to keep having babies and doing my part!!

[Shakman]

In order to my part, I better start donating my sperm to a Richmond sperm bank.  Just be forewarned, Richmond may have an explosion in population of witty, smart ass kids.

Edited January 31, 2020 by Shakman

[rjp212]

Estimates from World Population Review has us being just behind Norfolk. They estimate the census will say we are just over 237,000 people and Norfolk is about 241,000.  

source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/