Diamond Area / Hermitage Rd Corridor / Ownby District

[Flood Zone]

On 4/22/2023 at 11:01 PM, I miss RVA said:

I'm honestly surprised the Rays haven't relocated to Tampa proper - maybe building a ballpark near Raymond James Stadium.

The terms of the Rays' lease at the Trop site are tough. It's a 30-year lease ('98 through '27), and its original terms did not even permit negotiations with a locality other than Pinellas County.

Back on topic, Mayor Stoney gave an interview last week where he said lots of stuff is going on behind the scenes/about to be revealed (your mileage may vary), and he does not foresee the Squirrels leaving. I guess we should point that out, too.

[plain]

The Novel progress:




 

Edited April 24, 2023 by plain

[I miss RVA]

31 minutes ago, plain said:

The Novel progress:




 

Holy moly!! It's REALLY coming along nicely! Thanks SO much for taking and posting these gems!

I do believe some silver RVA/UP hardware will be yours for the taking by this coming weekend. 

[Downtowner]

22 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

It's not the same. Not even close. WAY too much money to be made by the league (and, by extension, to line the pockets of all the owners) with the NFL actually having a franchise based in London. NFL Europe failed for VERY simple reason: it ain't the real thing. When the NFL pulled the plug on the league in 2007, it reported annual losses of $30 million per season. The owners nearly kiboshed it in 2003, and the league fell one vote shy of the necessary nine votes to jettison it.

Let's face it - absolutely no one cares about an entire "sub-league" based overseas. But an actual NFL team playing out of Western Europe's largest market? Given the profit-centric nature of professional sports in general and the NFL in particular, that's a no-brainer.

My friend, the NFL wants London in the league, and it's going to happen at some point. The potential for revenue is simply too great. They've been moving in this direction for a while now, and it's just a matter of time before the league takes the Nestea Plunge and either relocates a flailing franchise to London, or awards them an expansion team. I'm thinking relocation would be preferable - as the league is essentially maxed out at 32 teams from a playability standpoint. Anything larger than a 32-team league makes no sense at all.

Happens or not the worst players on a team in London or wherever in Europe will have to be paid a lot more to make it worth it. No way would players want to go play in Europe fly back and forth on every Sunday. If we’re a punter or kicked it would take  a lot for me to go play over there. If I was drafted to London I would demand a trade immediately. I hate that for the players. I’m sorry but Id say absolutely not as a player.  I need to ask my uncle and my dads cousin who is the father of Heath miller and my uncle is Mike Compton who was a guard for the lions and won a Super Bowl with the patriots it was the first of super bowls when nobody knew who Tom Brady was. Reason I’m a lions fan is my uncle Mike Compton drafted in their round in the 1993 draft. Heath gave me my dad my cousin and my other uncle tickets to go watch him play in the continental tire bowl in 2003 against u of Pitt when’re Larry Fitzgerald was playing in that game, 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Downtowner said:

 my uncle is Mike Compton who was a guard for the lions and won a Super Bowl with the patriots it was the first of super bowls when nobody knew who Tom Brady was. Reason I’m a lions fan is my uncle Mike Compton drafted in their round in the 1993 draft. Heath gave me my dad my cousin and my other uncle tickets to go watch him play in the continental tire bowl in 2003 against u of Pitt when’re Larry Fitzgerald was playing in that game, 

Nice! 

[eandslee]

Well, this article explains a lot.  Turns out that the new baseball stadium project was indeed stalled and nothing was moving forward. Now, a way forward has been determined and it involves a delay in getting a baseball stadium open and ready for baseball. The new projected opening date will not be until 2026!  Apparently, the economy/interest rates were the driving force behind the delays.  Read more here:

https://www.wric.com/top-stories/richmond-building-new-baseball-stadium/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR0NjsKYOcL0RZuiwu1GFrRrthdEW3xNUUZnxorLfTl6b75YMvPc2FzjgH4

RBS also has a story on this:

https://richmondbizsense.com/2023/04/25/final-terms-reached-for-diamond-district-but-extra-innings-needed-for-new-stadium/

Edited April 25, 2023 by eandslee

[Flood Zone]

MLB will just squeeze out a few more million in exchange for saying “Fine.”

[eandslee]

You’re probably right.  

[BigBobbyG]

I hope the increased TIF and other changes don’t cause the city council to get cold feet on this. Imo the changes are relatively small (other than the unfortunate delay). 
 

I’m sure that the MLB is going to be frosty in their response as well given how much we have delayed, but I think even a mild confirmation from them that they would work with the city on this would go a long way towards getting this passed and started. 

[eandslee]

The one other big change I do not like is the fact that they are decreasing the stadium capacity down to just 9,000. 

[BigBobbyG]

5 minutes ago, eandslee said:

The one other big change I do not like is the fact that they are decreasing the stadium capacity down to just 9,000. 

Yeah I wasn’t happy to read that either. I’m sure it won’t make it look all that different and I know that’s still in line with the size of other modern minor league stadiums but it is disappointing. 

Edited April 25, 2023 by BigBobbyG

[wrldcoupe4]

Last season, in the awful Diamond, the Squirrels averaged 6,160 per game, best in AA and 15th best in the minors. You’d think that number will go up with a brand new facility. Maybe they can add the capacity at a later date. 

Edited April 25, 2023 by wrldcoupe4

[Downtowner]

4 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Last season, in the awful Diamond, the Squirrels averaged 6,160 per game.  You’d think that number will go up with a brand new facility. Maybe they can add the capacity at a later date. 

I’m hoping you’re right. Need 10,000 seats minimum for triple A to come back. 

[eandslee]

23 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

I’m hoping you’re right. Need 10,000 seats minimum for triple A to come back. 

If that’s the case, and if the stadium cannot be expanded, we lock ourselves into just having AA baseball in Richmond. That would be unfortunate. 

[Flood Zone]

1 hour ago, BigBobbyG said:

I’m sure that the MLB is going to be frosty in their response as well given how much we have delayed, but I think even a mild confirmation from them that they would work with the city on this would go a long way towards getting this passed and started. 

"Frosty" is a good prediction, but where else would this team go? Unlike the R-Braves, it's very unlikely the Squirrels have a bird in hard/another market just ready to go with a ballpark. Almost no matter what we're still the fastest bet for this team to get a new ballpark - in a very large market for Double-A that has clearly bought into what the Squirrels are selling.

22 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Last season, in the awful Diamond, the Squirrels averaged 6,160 per game, best in AA and 15th best in the minors. You’d think that number will go up with a brand new facility. Maybe they can add the capacity at a later date. 

Maybe so - also, we don't know whether that figure includes SRO/outfield berm seating, right?

16 minutes ago, Downtowner said:

’m hoping you’re right. Need 10,000 seats minimum for triple A to come back. 

Not necessarily. The most recent Triple-A stadium to come online, in Worcester, seats 9500. The trend has been smaller capacity. I agree that 9000 would put Richmond in the bottom half of Triple-A capacity, however.

[123fakestreet]

1 hour ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Last season, in the awful Diamond, the Squirrels averaged 6,160 per game, best in AA and 15th best in the minors. You’d think that number will go up with a brand new facility. Maybe they can add the capacity at a later date. 

Yep, I'm glad to see it downsized some. No sense in building a diamond that's 20% empty even in it's most well attended games.  I would hope they design it in a way another 1500 seats could be easily added somewhere at a later time if they decide they need it.

[I miss RVA]

49 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

Yep, I'm glad to see it downsized some. No sense in building a diamond that's 20% empty even in it's most well attended games.  I would hope they design it in a way another 1500 seats could be easily added somewhere at a later time if they decide they need it.

Hopefully they will design it such that adding 1,500 or so seats won't be a big stretch.

[Flood Zone]

Go to the drawing on Richmond Bizsense, look at the grass berm in RF, and imagine some seats with a concessions concourse there. And there you go.

(Whether the team would want to add seating/reduce scarcity is an interesting question.)

[I miss RVA]

Wow - I'm trying to wrap my head around the fact that interest rates have had THIS much of an impact on the financing for this project. Looking at the ballpark on a per-seat basis (understanding that overall cost involves infrastructure and other things that are not simply limited to seating capacity - but using capacity vs cost as a metric to try to calculate "bang for the buck" - the per-seat cost went from $8,000 (capacity of 10,000 at a cost of $80 million) to $10,000 per seat (capacity of 9,000 at a cost of $90 million). That's mind boggling to me.

What's more - they're really expanding the TIF - and now are including tax revenue generated by Crescent's Novel Scott's Addition, the proposed TRP apartment building on Ellen Road AND the proposed apartment building on the site of the Quality Inn - not to mention ALLLLL the new development to the east of the Diamond District in the burgeoning Hermitage/Overbrook/Ownby corridors. Thank God for all of the development happening on either side of the Diamond District! Of course, for those projects in the pipeline but not yet underway, the city better hope and pray there are no delays to their construction.

And even with agreements reached NOW - in Q2 of '23 - the forecast is that the first shovels won't turn any dirt until early 2024. Wow...

[Brent114]

The inflation woes are hogwash, IMO.  Even in the best of times inflation is at 2%.  The timeline for this project is what? 15-20 years?  That’s 30-40% inflation even in the best of times.  It seems like developers are using inflation as an excuse to wring more money out of the customer.   I know I’m over simplifying it. I work in construction, I know that things are more expensive.  But I also know that prices have moderated and that interest rates are trending down. 
 

This is by far the least interesting development for me in the entire metro, so I’m extra sour on the jockeying for more money.    These developments are always a flop, ugly and devoid of life*,  even when full of people.   But go ahead and get it one already.  Everything in Richmond can’t be about me and this will bring joy to suburbanites:) 
 

*the ballpark itself will be cheerful, they always are 

[wrldcoupe4]

Cost increases are slowing but are still edging higher

Equity requirements are higher while there is less equity being deployed (lots of cash on the sidelines)

Debt is much more expensive than it was when they underwrote initially, and banks are more leery about lending on CRE due to existing exposures

Combined, they make large project harder to do.

Not sure that's hogwash, just reality. If nothing changed at all in the project structure between a year ago and now, I'd be really suspect.

I think you are probably yearning for something more organic here, which this will never be. The city wants this to be a big, one fell swoop kind of lift. But, the density, investment, and ballpark will be really welcome and it will be a much better gateway to the city.

 

[I miss RVA]

33 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Cost increases are slowing but are still edging higher

Equity requirements are higher while there is less equity being deployed (lots of cash on the sidelines)

Debt is much more expensive than it was when they underwrote initially, and banks are more leery about lending on CRE due to existing exposures

Combined, they make large project harder to do.

Not sure that's hogwash, just reality. If nothing changed at all in the project structure between a year ago and now, I'd be really suspect.

I think you are probably yearning for something more organic here, which this will never be. The city wants this to be a big, one fell swoop kind of lift. But, the density, investment, and ballpark will be really welcome and it will be a much better gateway to the city.

 

Thanks, Coupe. As a laymen, much of these things are well beyond my limited paygrade, but the explanations and clarity that you and @upzoningisgood provide really help this complex science make more sense. Very much appreciated.

Two questions, the first one related to your first four points (and particularly the first one): going outside the realm of the specific Diamond District project - do you think the slowing of the cost increases are part of what is prompting at least a few of the developers to suddenly green-light their projects? (I'm thinking particularly of Capital Square and the developer of the Outlier - both of which appear to be moving forward.) Do you have a feel for whether or not the pipeline dam may (finally) be cracking just a bit and more developments that are on hold might actually begin ramping up and getting underway in the near future?

The second one related to point 5: I agree - it's reasonable to imagine that something HAS changed in the project structure. Without actually seeing details or renderings, hard to speculate - but what would you think - aside from the ballpark - might have changed? Perhaps some of the buildings might be truncated? We never really saw anything "firm" up front as it is - so it might be hard to really measure this.

FINALLY - re: point 6 (density, investment and ballpark will be welcome- plus better city gateway) !!! 

[Downtowner]

4 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Thanks, Coupe. As a laymen, much of these things are well beyond my limited paygrade, but the explanations and clarity that you and @upzoningisgood provide really help this complex science make more sense. Very much appreciated.

Two questions, the first one related to your first four points (and particularly the first one): going outside the realm of the specific Diamond District project - do you think the slowing of the cost increases are part of what is prompting at least a few of the developers to suddenly green-light their projects? (I'm thinking particularly of Capital Square and the developer of the Outlier - both of which appear to be moving forward.) Do you have a feel for whether or not the pipeline dam may (finally) be cracking just a bit and more developments that are on hold might actually begin ramping up and getting underway in the near future?

The second one related to point 5: I agree - it's reasonable to imagine that something HAS changed in the project structure. Without actually seeing details or renderings, hard to speculate - but what would you think - aside from the ballpark - might have changed? Perhaps some of the buildings might be truncated? We never really saw anything "firm" up front as it is - so it might be hard to really measure this.

FINALLY - re: point 6 (density, investment and ballpark will be welcome- plus better city gateway) !!! 

Also as someone who has done new construction electrical from th very beginning. Labor is another big cost. Companies are having to give employees more because it’s getting harder and harder to find people within the trades. I can’t tell you how many people I have met who have to travel all over just to work on a project because it’s so hard to find local employees now. I’ve met so many people who get a hotel here and stay for a while but go home on the weekend. Some from North Carolina some from western part of Virginia places like Lexington waynesboro all over the state I have worked with various groups of people. It’s just the nature of the business we work in. It’s really hard to find good help in my trade electrical. I’ve noticed turnover rate is getting really high in Richmond for the trades. Some companies demand way more than they can chew and they end up cutting ties with some people who can do the work and do it well but they are so new the let go because they want them to work like a robot. Then you have the people who say I never see my family or i don’t get paid enough or the wait period for benefits is too long. That’s three of the driving factors for skilled tradesmen. I am in a really great situation in Winchester the guy even asked me how much can I pay you for me to hire you I told me number and he was like done like yesterday. People are hurting for help but some hire and then hand unrealistic expectations in a utopia and then end up let down because they expect you to work like a robot and bow down to a company. I took my time and looked for the right companies to work for from reviews and word of mouth. I hope one day people realize no Everyone needs to go to college or the most prestigious university to study poetry just to end up working at Walmart or target. Their are trades that pay good money but people look at us like we are trash. Yes some are but a lot are good people who make really good money. Until we start having teachers start encouraging skilled trades skilled trade labor will always cost a company a premium. It’s like the military people say I don’t want to die in war but guess what I’d rather die in honor knowing I did all I could to help defend us. People just don’t want to put in a honest hard days work. It’s like people who pay someone to do every last little thing around their house because they don’t want to put in the hard work.

[I miss RVA]

More reporting on the ballpark/Diamond District - this time related specifically to the ballpark and the Squirrels. Man - not sure what the disconnect between the city and the ballclub are - but apparently DiBella was in the dark about the city making an announcement on Monday night that the timeframe for the opening of a new facility was being pushed back by a year. Sounds like MLB IS willing to work with everyone - PROVIDED - there is documentation proving funding/financing in place, a ballpark design AND a construction time-table - NONE OF WHICH CURRENTLY HAVE BEEN MADE PUBLIC IF, IN FACT, THEY EXIST!

I get that the developers and the city have had to make adjustments due to changes in the economic situation - but that the three primary "proofs" that MLB is requiring in order for an extension to be put in place apparently aren't yet available is very troubling. Not sure who this falls upon - the developer, the city or both?

From yesterday's Richmond Times-Dispatch:

https://richmond.com/sports/flying-squirrels/per-letter-from-mlb-it-wants-more-evidence-that-richmond-will-be-building-ballpark/article_aeeea224-e369-11ed-92c4-33ebef89e9c2.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Edited April 26, 2023 by I miss RVA

[BigBobbyG]

I don't like that DiBella has been kept in the dark but I could see this happening if the city and the developers have been renegotiating the deal given the interest rates and just reached an agreement that they felt they had to announce as soon as possible. I may be being too forgiving here of both the city and developer though. Hopefully, the land sale is expedited and with that we get the finalized plans and timeline. I'm going to send an email to my council member (and all of the other ones to be honest) asking them to expedite this process as much as they are able to. Who knows how much it will help but here is hoping that it does some good!