OPINION: Does COVID-19 Mark the Top of the Orlando Building Boom?

[popsiclebrandon]

Just read this and I guess never sleep again because its going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

[gibby]

I vote for Coffee House.

[HankStrong]

56 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

I'm retired so I pretty much stay home all the time anyway,  

Ergo, no big lifestyle change for me other than that I might start doing my grocery shopping late at night, even after midnight, in order to avoid  close proximity to people. 

One of the advantages of being a Walmart shopper I guess. 

FYI, some Walmarts are closing at night now instead of staying open.

[JFW657]

Just now, HankStrong said:

FYI, some Walmarts are closing at night now instead of staying open.

I was kind of expecting to hear that.

[spenser1058]

Just now, JFW657 said:

I was kind of expecting to hear that.

I’m not sure it matters. When I order online to pickup at Target they text me back a few seconds later saying, “oops, we’re out of that” and last night the Eola Publix looked like one of those old Soviet Union grocery store pics with empty shelves.

Normally, I’d assume this would pass as they ramp up for the demand surge but if the folks in the supply chain can’t report to work for fear of being exposed to the virus this could get interesting.

[JFW657]

43 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

I’m not sure it matters. When I order online to pickup at Target they text me back a few seconds later saying, “oops, we’re out of that” and last night the Eola Publix looked like one of those old Soviet Union grocery store pics with empty shelves.

Normally, I’d assume this would pass as they ramp up for the demand surge but if the folks in the supply chain can’t report to work for fear of being exposed to the virus this could get interesting.

We might all be relying on community food banks before long.

Pre-assembled boxes of you-get-what-you-get items based on what's available.

It's past time for the grocery stores to begin implementing limits on certain items.

All items if it gets that far.

[Jvest55]

The timing is quite poor with 2 supermarket chains closing down nationwide right before everyone "needs" food and supplies.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Jvest55

[JFW657]

2 hours ago, Jvest55 said:

The timing is quite poor with 2 supermarket chains closing down nationwide right before everyone "needs" food and supplies.

I wonder if Lucky's and Earth Fare would've delayed closing if they'd been able to foresee the current situation. 

[JFW657]

Looks like yet more people out of work.

No more cash toll collections on the local expressways until the bug is dead.

If you don't have SunPass they'll do the pay by plate thing and you'll get a bill in the mail.

I would imagine they'll waive the usual extra administrative fees. 

[aent]

14 hours ago, W7edwin said:

The fact republicans and libertarian politicians are suddenly clamoring for UBIs is telling me something. .. we're not bouncing back anytime soon 

I haven't heard of them clamoring for UBI, just a one time stimulus check (and that from republicans, not libertarians). Any citation of any Republicans who want a UBI now?

[sethM]

6 hours ago, aent said:

I haven't heard of them clamoring for UBI, just a one time stimulus check (and that from republicans, not libertarians). Any citation of any Republicans who want a UBI now?

Everything I’ve seen from Republicans is “temporary UBI.” 

[codypet]

9 hours ago, JFW657 said:

Looks like yet more people out of work.

No more cash toll collections on the local expressways until the bug is dead.

If you don't have SunPass they'll do the pay by plate thing and you'll get a bill in the mail.

I would imagine they'll waive the usual extra administrative fees. 

Welp looks like we just went from testing to full bore implementation.

[spenser1058]

Better yet, just get your very own KNIGHTpass and Charge On!

https://www.cfxway.com/e-pass/college-e-pass/

[JFW657]

[Jvest55]

I'd love to see the stats for Orlando, it's gotta be way worse.

In just three days this week, Ohio received nearly 78,000 claims for unemployment compensation

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/local/coronavirus-crisis-sparks-500-increase-ohio-unemployment-claims/1jalUcMSyP2dVnMM6g7NKO/

[spenser1058]

Here’s one look from the hotel industry:

https://twitter.com/rt_dailey/status/1240663135553499142?s=21

 

[Jernigan]

On the topic - when does a boom technically end?  A completely stop?   
 

Assuming Society and others don’t stop mid construction, I could see more projects continuing to go up even if at a slower pace.   “Meds and Ed’s” man.   Two hospital districts with UCF in between.

[dcluley98]

Jobs will be stopping mid-construction. Question is whether it is just temporary or projects fail. The main answer to that relies in lending markets, not labor markets. 

I also have a feeling that demand for high dollar rents in the core will be declining with recent events. Unemployment, both temporary and permanent is beginning to occur, and most companies will be reducing capital outlays to labor. This causes a reduction in the liquidity of markets, and further gives excuses for companies to   reduce labor costs going forward, which puts less money in the hands of consumers and will reduce demand for goods and services deemed non-essential. (The old "you're just lucky you still have a job" trope that the companies like to trot out every time there is a disruption in the markets). 

The only solace (IMHO, of course) is that this occured during a controversial election cycle wherein some forward-thinking candidates have pushed for healthcare reform and UBI for more stability in the system, and the timing of this crisis lines up very well for adoption of some of these policies that could potentially make life for laborers much better in the future.  

Edited March 21, 2020 by dcluley98

[Jvest55]

On 3/21/2020 at 1:30 AM, Jernigan said:

On the topic - when does a boom technically end?  A completely stop?   

I would argue a boom ends when important economic metrics turn bearish.

One would need to look at the stock market, employment rates, vacancy rates, lending and credit markets for example. Orlando has been booming because people have been moving to smaller cities from larger cities. I am not sure if people who are on the brink of losing their job, or have already lost one, will take a gamble and move to our city beautiful right now. With a cash crunch going on with essentially all businesses, nobody will agree to pay such expensive leases in our newly built buildings, and I don't see regular people splurging on luxury rentals with amenities that can't even be used. We are just a couple weeks into this... 

There's an eye-opening thread on Reddit where people talk about the situation they are in. Lots of just regular folk in hard times.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/flgaml/people_who_lost_their_job_due_to_this_crisis_what/

 

[orange87]

One positive for me, because of the economic craziness I was able to refinance my mortgage rate from 3.65% to 2.75% which is just insane.

[codypet]

56 minutes ago, orange87 said:

One positive for me, because of the economic craziness I was able to refinance my mortgage rate from 3.65% to 2.75% which is just insane.

Holy crap!  What bank was this?  I'm about to get the ball rolling on refi to replace mine at my 4.38%

[orange87]

4 minutes ago, codypet said:

Holy crap!  What bank was this?  I'm about to get the ball rolling on refi to replace mine at my 4.38%

Homebridge Financial. The market is so crazy right now that the rates are fluctuating by the day by a lot. I know someone who works at that bank and told him to give me a call when the rate drops in the 2s so he can lock it in.

Edited March 23, 2020 by orange87

[Jvest55]

15 or 30 year. Makes a big difference. 

[orange87]

5 hours ago, Jvest55 said:

15 or 30 year. Makes a big difference. 

30 years. If I did 15 years it probably would have been under 2%.

[dcluley98]

2.75% for 30 years is crazy good.