The Coronavirus thread

[elrodvt]

I listened to the white house briefing today. For the first time it seemed like the WH and the CDC were on the same page which is great progress.

[urbanlover568]

The US already has a doctor shortage.

 

100 family doctors have coronavirus in Bergamo, Italy (population 120K)

[elrodvt]

18 minutes ago, gman430 said:

Why not just quarantine the most vulnerable people and let everybody else live their lives normally? And at least Congress is getting along: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/mcconnell-says-senate-wont-pass-coronavirus-bill-without-bold-new-steps.html

Maybe you should call and offer your help?

[gman430]

2 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

Maybe you should call and offer your help?

No thanks. The government has already screwed this up. It’s too late now.

[davidclt]

5 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

For comparison, Italy which has much more strict lockdowns, their daily infection rate is continuing to rise with the increased lockdowns. 

I think it's because they're diagnosing more cases which were infected prior to the lockdowns. National quarantine is only a week old and I think we'll continue to see an increase for at least a few more weeks.

[videtur quam contuor]

Annual flu incidence and deaths are at this CDC site. Mortality rate is 0.1-0.2%

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Lancet (The top British medical science publication) estimates mortality of ~5% for Covid-19) Others report 3-4% moratlity. Whatever it is it is far, far higher than annual influenza.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

If the same number are infected with Covid-19 as are the annual influenza in past years (see citation above) this death rate (say, 2%) equals 2% of 30,000,000=600,000.

SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND deaths

This is the math that is hard for people to comprehend.

Edited March 17, 2020 by tarhoosier

[urbanlover568]

6 minutes ago, gman430 said:

No thanks. The government has already screwed this up. It’s too late now.

Wow.

[elrodvt]

I believe the other point is to flatten the curve to below what our hospitals can manage. Even if the loss of life ends up roughly the same it is much better to stretch it out and not have a breakdown of the health system.

Personally, I'll just buy some of that silver stuff Jim Bakker is hawking on late night. ;-)

[urbanlover568]

UK increased their daily infection county by 20% today.

[elrodvt]

I'm sure if brexit was complete they would have 0. ;-)

[urbanlover568]

Italian publication ANSA says Bergamo is "collapsing" (I believe they mean the health care system) and there are no more intensive care beds

Also says two Italian postal service workers in Bergamo have died from coronavirus

https://www.ansa.it/canale_saluteebenessere/notizie/sanita/2020/03/16/coronavirus-gallera-ieri-quasi-zero-posti-in-terapia-intensiva_985c7acc-6150-45b2-af54-aa7ab4a309e9.html

[gman430]

6 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

I'm sure if brexit was complete they would have 0. ;-)

Agreed. This virus is clearly some government test or experiment done by China to see if we are prepared for a pandemic or not.

Edited March 17, 2020 by gman430

[urbanlover568]

Just now, gman430 said:

Agreed. This virus is clearly some government test or experiment done by China to see if we are prepared for a pandemic or not.

[gman430]

6 minutes ago, urbanlover568 said:

 I knew you’d understand. And at least we all get free money from it that technically isn’t free: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/government-response-updates-coronavirus-task-force-briefs-15/story?id=69640056

Edited March 17, 2020 by gman430

[videtur quam contuor]

While you are home you can shave your beard.    (for now)

It is an important vector of infectious droplets. In the 1870's to 1880's medical science understood the concept of contagion and the role of microscopic bacteria and the spread of disease through contact and personal space. Then we knew that tuberculosis, a terrible killer of that period, was spread by close contact and sputum and sharing food utensils and so on. This spawned the "no spitting on sidewalks" laws and many others. Presidents, and other leaders were encouraged to show adherence to this knowledge and go beardless. B. Harrison was the last bearded president partly because of this.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_with_facial_hair

"Beards and mustaches fell out of favor due to health reasons, as described on the PBS website pertaining to a documentary on tuberculosis: "Most men at the turn of the [twentieth] century featured stylish beards or mustaches, but showing off a smooth face became a new trend once public health officials maintained that men could transmit dangerous infectious particles through the scruff of their facial hair. An editorial in a 1903 Harper's Weekly stated, "Now that consumption is no longer consumption, but tuberculosis, and is not hereditary but infectious…the theory of science is that the beard is infected with the germs of tuberculosis." "

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/plague-know/ 

[urbanlover568]

NYC Mayor: "New Yorkers should be prepared for the possibility of a shelter-in-place order"

Says wants decision to be made in next 48 hours

[wilmore]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

I stand by my statement.
 

Killing the economy off one bar and restaurant at a time. Keep up the great work Cooper. Hope McMaster doesn’t issue this nonsense order. 

do you think somehow if restaurants were open, they would get anywhere near the crowds necessary to sustain themselves? They would not. 

[gman430]

9 minutes ago, wilmore said:

do you think somehow if restaurants were open, they would get anywhere near the crowds necessary to sustain themselves? They would not. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/16/coronavirus-social-distancing-why-people-wont-avoid-each-other/5065228002/

Bars and restaurants should be able to decide for themselves whether to close or not without silly government intervention.

Edited March 17, 2020 by gman430

[JRNYP2C]

1 hour ago, tarhoosier said:

While you are home you can shave your beard.    (for now)

It is an important vector of infectious droplets. In the 1870's to 1880's medical science understood the concept of contagion and the role of microscopic bacteria and the spread of disease through contact and personal space. Then we knew that tuberculosis, a terrible killer of that period, was spread by close contact and sputum and sharing food utensils and so on. This spawned the "no spitting on sidewalks" laws and many others. Presidents, and other leaders were encouraged to show adherence to this knowledge and go beardless. B. Harrison was the last bearded president partly because of this.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_with_facial_hair

"Beards and mustaches fell out of favor due to health reasons, as described on the PBS website pertaining to a documentary on tuberculosis: "Most men at the turn of the [twentieth] century featured stylish beards or mustaches, but showing off a smooth face became a new trend once public health officials maintained that men could transmit dangerous infectious particles through the scruff of their facial hair. An editorial in a 1903 Harper's Weekly stated, "Now that consumption is no longer consumption, but tuberculosis, and is not hereditary but infectious…the theory of science is that the beard is infected with the germs of tuberculosis." "

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/plague-know/ 

I"m going to hold out on keeping mine as long as I can.  Luckily, it will grow back if i NEED to shave it off.

[Dale]

2 hours ago, elrodvt said:

I'm sure if brexit was complete they would have 0. ;-)

Probably.

[southslider]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/16/coronavirus-social-distancing-why-people-wont-avoid-each-other/5065228002/

Bars and restaurants should be able to decide for themselves whether to close or not without silly government intervention.

Ideally, sure. But starting this on the evening of St Patrick's Day goes to show how necessary it is to intervene sooner than later.

[elrodvt]

4 hours ago, gman430 said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/16/coronavirus-social-distancing-why-people-wont-avoid-each-other/5065228002/

Bars and restaurants should be able to decide for themselves whether to close or not without silly government intervention.

And whether to wash their hands right? Lol.

Political divide somehow results in schism on belief of an issue: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-much-of-america-takes-drastic-action-some-republicans-remain-skeptical-of-the-severity-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/2020/03/17/f8b199c8-6786-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html

Bizarre. I would still like to see this data normalized by rural vs urban. 

This is a good read on the meaning of the numbers we see. Especially wrt to "flattening the curve".

https://thecorrespondent.com/352/deciphering-the-pandemic-a-guide-to-understanding-the-coronavirus-numbers/46555890304-c23a82af

Edited March 17, 2020 by elrodvt

[15895]

4 hours ago, gman430 said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/16/coronavirus-social-distancing-why-people-wont-avoid-each-other/5065228002/

Bars and restaurants should be able to decide for themselves whether to close or not without silly government intervention.

I think if we had silly government intervention earlier, instead of “its just the flu, American exceptionalism” - we would not be in such a dire economic situation. 
 

also, I think if we didn’t have silly government regulations on the banks that people want to roll back - holy cow, this would be 100x nastier. 
 

could you imagine if we didn’t have the stress test and regulations on the bank? Yeeeesh 

[davidclt]

This is a very interesting analysis of hospitals' abilities by region to deal with the influx of COVID-19 patients. It uses IP address geolocation to provide an an analysis of the area it thinks you're in.

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals

The analysis is sobering.

Edited March 18, 2020 by davidclt

[gman430]

Watching CNN is hilarious right now. LOL. They’re freaking out because people aren’t sheltering in place in San Francisco. I say GOOD for the people going out and living their normal lives. Stop letting the Trump hating media brainwash you. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by gman430