Dominion Resources: New High-rise Building Planned for Downtown

[asies]

14 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Really good analysis, @Flood Zone. So then that leads to the question: why does it seem to impact Richmond MUCH more significantly than it does like the really high-growth cities like Nashville, RDU-CH, Austin, etc.? Am guessing FAMILIES are moving into those other cities as well as young professional singletons? Something is fueling demand in those other cities that just doesn't seem to be in play in Richmond. Take jobs out of the equation. I can't help shake the feeling that even if all things (like jobs) were equal, the "demand" in the city still wouldn't be what it is even in the suburban counties, much less the other high-growth markets.

Dunno... it's a head scratcher.

Nashville, Raliegh, Charlotte, and Austin are huge in area and include many traditional suburban neighborhoods within city limits that Richmond doesn't have.  Richmond is still growing, I wouldn't call almost 3,000 people in two years that were in a pandemic stagnate growth, it just isn't explosive growth. Family size definitefly impacts things. In the cities previously listed a growing family can move into a larger home and better school catachment area while still staying in the city, that is much more difficult to do in Richmond. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by asies

[I miss RVA]

41 minutes ago, asies said:

Nashville, Raliegh, Charlotte, and Austin are huge in area and include many traditional suburban neighborhoods within city limits that Richmond doesn't have.  Richmond is still growing, I wouldn't call almost 3,000 people in two years that were in a pandemic stagnate growth, it just isn't explosive growth. Family size definitefly impacts things. In the cities previously listed a growing family can move into a larger home and better school catachment area while still staying in the city, that is much more difficult to do in Richmond. 

That makes a huge difference, to be sure. Richmond being land locked - and the independent city paradigm that's been in place since 1871 has really held us back.

I'd view growth of 3,000 people in two years incremental at best. Nothing more. True - it might not qualify as stagnant - but in all honesty, it's the bottom end of incremental growth. It barely moves the needle - particularly when our chief competitors are experiencing - admittedly - explosive growth.

The land-area issue really does make a huge difference, no question. Ditto the city as count seat of larger county which was the case in Virginia until 1871 - though in Richmond's case were that in play today it would be interesting because Manchester - which merged with Richmond - was the county seat for Chesterfield whereas Richmond was the county seat for Henrico. Curious if, under that scenario, the city could serve as the county seat for BOTH counties? Obviously just hypothetical speculation - but a fun one to think about nonetheless.

Edited November 29, 2023 by I miss RVA

[BigBobbyG]

5 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

That makes a huge difference, to be sure. Richmond being land locked - and the independent city paradigm that's been in place since 1871 has really held us back.

I'd view growth of 3,000 people in two years incremental at best. Nothing more. True - it might not qualify as stagnant - but in all honesty, it's the bottom end of incremental growth. It barely moves the needle - particularly when our chief competitors are experiencing - admittedly - explosive growth.

The land-area issue really does make a huge difference, no question. Ditto the city as count seat of larger county which was the case in Virginia until 1871 - though in Richmond's case were that in play today it would be interesting because Manchester - which merged with Richmond - was the county seat for Chesterfield whereas Richmond was the county seat for Henrico. Curious if, under that scenario, the city could serve as the county seat for BOTH counties? Obviously just hypothetical speculation - but a fun one to think about nonetheless.

I wonder how our growth numbers compare when you add in Chesterfield and Henrico into the equation? From the outside perspective people see them as "Richmond", well at least as much as something like the cypress area is considered "Houston".

That being said, I'm sure the actual city parts of the Nashville, Raleigh, Austin, etc.  numbers have seen more than 3000 people in pop. growth, I hope we can boost the numbers of the actual city soon!

At the end of the day though I long for annexation powers back. Preferably in the form of combining Richmond, Henrico, and  Chesterfield into something like Harris County is with Houston (though not with that sprawl and car-centric culture on steroids please)

[Flood Zone]

24 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

'd view growth of 3,000 people in two years incremental at best. Nothing more. True - it might not qualify as stagnant - but in all honesty, it's the bottom end of incremental growth. It barely moves the needle - particularly when our chief competitors are experiencing - admittedly - explosive growth.

If you take Wikipedia at its word, Austin grew by a bit under 3,000 people between 2020 and 2021. This from a city with three time's the population of Richmond. For what that's worth (maybe nothing).

I can't speak to Austin or Nashville, in particular, but what has grown Sun Belt areas has been the availability of cheap land. I recall visiting a good friend and his (now-ex-) wife in 2006. They were looking to buy a house just outside Ft. Worth. I remember being struck that new builds out there were like half the cost that you'd see in the Richmond area. With Richmond specifically, you're looking at a significantly higher property tax rate. We all-but bought in Richmond -- we're very close to the line - but don't pay Richmond taxes.

At any rate, it's a side issue, but I don't see Austin or Nashville as competitors in a meaningful sense. Nashville is a major league city. Austin is for all intents and purposes. The last time we were really on a level with Austin was two or three decades ago. What's done is done. I'll agree we're competitors with RDU in a more significant sense; almost certainly more than the other two.

[I miss RVA]

56 minutes ago, BigBobbyG said:

At the end of the day though I long for annexation powers back. Preferably in the form of combining Richmond, Henrico, and  Chesterfield into something like Harris County is with Houston (though not with that sprawl and car-centric culture on steroids please)

Much as it would be awesome of we could do something akin to Houston and Harris County or Nashville and Davidson County - I can't ever see that happening, not just because the county residents would lose their collective scheitze, but because Houston and Nashville are inherently "part" of their "host" counties because they serve as the county seat in both situations. (The same situation here in Chicago, which is the county seat of Cook County).

The independent-city paradigm under which Virginia has operated since 1871 basically takes that off the table. Mind you, there are instances in Virginia where a city/county merger has happened and worked, namely Virginia Beach and Princess Anne County. But now - in 2023 - particularly in metro Richmond - the economic, societal, even political differences between city and county are, by and large, disparate enough that ANY hope of some kind of merger between the city and one of the big suburban counties is really non-existent. 

As for annexation: given how the mid-1970s moratorium came about in the wake of the city's 1970 annexation of 23 sq miles of Chesterfield (and 47K residents), that's something that likely will never - EVER - changed.  Without delving into the details and history (which has been discussed elsewhere in our community) the moratorium was prompted by post-annexation Voting Rights Act lawsuits in the early '70s that were upheld by the SCOTUS, forcing the General Assembly to impose a moratorium on communities above a certain size (such as Richmond and Norfolk) forbidding them from annexing surrounding jurisdictions. This moratorium was later expanded as a "blanket" state-wide moratorium on all communities with EXTREMELY and I do mean EXTREMELY limited exceptions.

I forget when the G.A. last "renewed" the moratorium. I believe it has to be "renewed" legislatively every "x" number of years, but I think (without taking a ton of time to look all this stuff up) it was extended within the last 10 years. So... it ain't goin' anywhere anytime soon.

Edited November 29, 2023 by I miss RVA

[BigBobbyG]

25 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Much as it would be awesome of we could do something akin to Houston and Harris County or Nashville and Davidson County - I can't ever see that happening, not just because the county residents would lose their collective scheitze, but because Houston and Nashville are inherently "part" of their "host" counties because they serve as the county seat in both situations. (The same situation here in Chicago, which is the county seat of Cook County).

The independent-city paradigm under which Virginia has operated since 1871 basically takes that off the table. Mind you, there are instances in Virginia where a city/county merger has happened and worked, namely Virginia Beach and Princess Anne County. But now - in 2023 - particularly in metro Richmond - the economic, societal, even political differences between city and county are, by and large, disparate enough that ANY hope of some kind of merger between the city and one of the big suburban counties is really non-existent. 

As for annexation: given how the mid-1970s moratorium came about in the wake of the city's 1970 annexation of 23 sq miles of Chesterfield (and 47K residents), that's something that likely will never - EVER - changed.  Without delving into the details and history (which has been discussed elsewhere in our community) the moratorium was prompted by post-annexation Voting Rights Act lawsuits in the early '70s that were upheld by the SCOTUS, forcing the General Assembly to impose a moratorium on communities above a certain size (such as Richmond and Norfolk) forbidding them from annexing surrounding jurisdictions. This moratorium was later expanded as a "blanket" state-wide moratorium on all communities with EXTREMELY and I do mean EXTREMELY limited exceptions.

I forget when the G.A. last "renewed" the moratorium. I believe it has to be "renewed" legislatively every "x" number of years, but I think (without taking a ton of time to look all this stuff up) it was extended within the last 10 years. So... it ain't goin' anywhere anytime soon.

Appreciate all of the history on this! I hear you, I know it’s a pipe dream but I really do bemoan our independent city system and wish we could figure a way around it. Like you said though, it ain’t going to happen so we have to make the best of our situation as it is. 

[I miss RVA]

5 minutes ago, BigBobbyG said:

Appreciate all of the history on this! I hear you, I know it’s a pipe dream but I really do bemoan our independent city system and wish we could figure a way around it. Like you said though, it ain’t going to happen so we have to make the best of our situation as it is. 

Believe it or not, I lived through (and vividly remember) the annexation in 1970,* the post-annexation legal battles, law suits, the SCOTUS ruling and the G.A. imposing the moratorium. The City was ordered to suspend city council elections for 1972, '74 and '76 while the lawsuits were adjudicated and what is now the current ward system for City Council was formulated, approved and implemented. A special off-year election was held in 1977 to constitute a new city council before "regular" biennial council elections resumed in 1978.

* - a vivid memory that I have of the annexation is this: the house that my parents bought and that we moved into when I was not quite 2 years old was in Chesterfield when we moved there in mid-1964. Five and a half years later, it was in the city beginning 01 January 1970. Ironically, as I recall, my parents celebrated it and were happy to be in the city (as opposed to the county).

[ancientcarpenter]

21 hours ago, Brent114 said:

 It’s a part of that pesky situation where buildings are popping up everywhere while the population numbers barely move. 

I'm sorry, am I in the Richmond forum or Martinsville?! 

RVA population is growing at a rapid pace - mayor's numbers were 8.8 people per day moving to RVA when he spoke back in 2020/21. 

https://www.grpva.com/research-data/demographics/

edit: doing the hard numbers, looks like 2010 to 2020 it was 7.8 people per day moving to RVA. Moving forward, project 2020 to 2030 is 6.8 per day.

Am I missing something?

Edited November 30, 2023 by ancientcarpenter

[asies]

1 hour ago, ancientcarpenter said:

I'm sorry, am I in the Richmond forum or Martinsville?! 

RVA population is growing at a rapid pace - mayor's numbers were 8.8 people per day moving to RVA when he spoke back in 2020/21. 

https://www.grpva.com/research-data/demographics/

edit: doing the hard numbers, looks like 2010 to 2020 it was 7.8 people per day moving to RVA. Moving forward, project 2020 to 2030 is 6.8 per day.

Am I missing something?

I'd also add that while 3,000 in two years is nothing to get excited about, most cities between 2020 and 2022 (including many midsize cities) experienced population loss or zero growth.  The 2023 population estimates that will come out Spring 2024 will give a clearer picuture of  how Richmond is growing.

[ancientcarpenter]

28 minutes ago, asies said:

I'd also add that while 3,000 in two years is nothing to get excited about, most cities between 2020 and 2022 (including many midsize cities) experienced population loss or zero growth.  The 2023 population estimates that will come out Spring 2024 will give a clearer picuture of  how Richmond is growing.

It may be possible the others are referring to 2021 numbers? With google population counter, I'm seeing a drop from 2019 231k to 226k in 2020 and then stabilized in 2021 at 226k.

Does anyone know what happened between 2019 and 2020 in RVA? I understand pandemic threw everyone a curve ball but I was under the impression even more people were moving here when pandemic started and at a faster rate...

 

US Census numbers have us "estimated" to be 229k in 2022 so we are "recovering" from the 2020 drop. That brings us full circle back to what I originally had in my latest post (see picture) that RVA is gaining around 8 people a day.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/richmondcityvirginia/PST045222

Quote

Moving forward, project 2020 to 2030 is 6.8 per day.

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by ancientcarpenter

[Icetera]

3 hours ago, ancientcarpenter said:

It may be possible the others are referring to 2021 numbers? With google population counter, I'm seeing a drop from 2019 231k to 226k in 2020 and then stabilized in 2021 at 226k.

Does anyone know what happened between 2019 and 2020 in RVA? I understand pandemic threw everyone a curve ball but I was under the impression even more people were moving here when pandemic started and at a faster rate...

 

US Census numbers have us "estimated" to be 229k in 2022 so we are "recovering" from the 2020 drop. That brings us full circle back to what I originally had in my latest post (see picture) that RVA is gaining around 8 people a day.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/richmondcityvirginia/PST045222

 

 

 

Not really a drop.  2019 used population estimates up to that point and then 2020 data comes from the, arguably inaccurate, 2020 Census Report.

[ancientcarpenter]

23 minutes ago, Icetera said:

Not really a drop.  2019 used population estimates up to that point and then 2020 data comes from the, arguably inaccurate, 2020 Census Report.

Ahh yes, due to covid and "possible" political maneuvering those numbers really are borderline made up. Thanks for reminding us. 

[I miss RVA]

8 hours ago, Icetera said:

Not really a drop.  2019 used population estimates up to that point and then 2020 data comes from the, arguably inaccurate, 2020 Census Report.

Agreed. It's reasonable to suggest that the 2020 census was - unfortunately - rife with significant undercounts for a variety of reasons. There were any number of cities whose officials complained that their population figures weren't accurate - all undercounted.

[ancientcarpenter]

So, am I missing anything or is "RVA population is stagnating" talk not accurate? Very confused as I've heard nothing but growth...

[I miss RVA]

2 hours ago, ancientcarpenter said:

So, am I missing anything or is "RVA population is stagnating" talk not accurate? Very confused as I've heard nothing but growth...

I think for some (many?) of us it's a matter of perception. Indeed, incremental growth is still growth. But for me, when I see incremental growth, what stands out is the "incremental" part and not so much the "growth" - particularly when we're NOT keeping up with our chief rivals who - by and large - have been experiencing "explosive" growth over the last how-ever-many decades - and it's long-since been discussed on these many sub-forums in our community that "market size" (and RVA's relative lack thereof) is definitely something that typically holds RVA back in terms of certain kinds of developments, etc.

This is all pertinent to RVA's city population growth, metro population growth, the airport's growth in passenger volume, etc. I think it boils down to a matter of perception vs expectation/desired outcome.

Edited December 1, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Flood Zone]

56 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

RVA's city population growth, metro population growth

You said the magic words there -- metro population growth. RVA's population growth, in the city, is affected by variables that don't lend an apples-to-apples comparison to other cities. In looking at metro area, we're gaining population at a very respectable rate. Look at comparable MSAs like Memphis, Louisville, SLC, Birmingham -- our growth betters theirs. We're not Austin, but, really, who is? We're not Raleigh-Durham, but their growth is exceptional, not the norm. We're better than the norm. Bright-side view, I know....

[I miss RVA]

Indeed -- we're not Austin. Who is? RDU-CH. They're like Austin - only they're about 10 to 20 years behind the Texas capital.

Like you said re: metro RVA's growth - bright-side view. And i agree with you, inasmuch as we're (at least for now) the pace-setter in the Commonwealth. I guess I'm (unfortunately) the classic "glass half-empty" viewer - because when I see (even if it's only a few) other cities/metros enjoying "explosive" growth while we're enjoying "decent/okay/respectable (pick your adjective)" growth -- and while the city itself is experiencing "incremental" growth - what stands out to me is the "incremental" part - and the fact we keep falling farther and farther and farther and farther and farther and farther and farther and farther behind -- particularly as it relates to the demonstrated fact (as has been discussed on here) that MARKET SIZE is a HUGE metric in the construction/CRE industry. (Yes, Virginia, SIZE MATTERS!)

I recall reading in the past year (I forget where this was published) how during a less-than-favorable economic climate, particularly like what has happened in the last few years with higher inflation, huge spikes in construction costs, progressively (over time) elevated interest rates, how institutional developers and institutional lenders tend to "fall back" on the "tried-and-true position" of sticking to projects/developments in LARGER, better established markets (read: MARKET SIZE MATTERS) when it comes to significant investments because larger markets inherently offer that magic elixir of GREATER DEMAND. While not naming Richmond specifically, the article made no bones about the fact that "mid-sized" markets (and the size generally "fit" RVA's description) tend to get shut out in favor of bigger markets in this scenario. So developments that even in tougher economies still pencil in places like Austin, RDU-CH, Nashville, etc. are less likely to pencil (outside of damn-near perfect economic conditions) in markets like RVA simply because those other markets are LARGER - and they are getting larger FASTER than we are growing, not only kiboshing any chance we might have to close the gap (even a little bit) but they're pulling farther and farther away.

And again - it's been long-since established on here, RVA's limited market size HURTS us in ways it does NOT hurt the higher-growth - LARGER - markets like Austin, RDU-CH, CLT (city/metro, not airport), Nashville, among others.

Hence - that's why I'm ALWAYS banging the drum kvetching about our "incremental" growth as a "glass half empty" scenario that - good as it might be - is difficult for me to celebrate because the fruit it bears is - unfortunately - minimal. Yeah - it bears fruit - but how do you compare a small field of blueberries with a huge orchard of apples?

That's my weirdness - I realize. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by I miss RVA

[Child2021]

I'm not really interested in Richmond growing at a abnormally high rate.  We already have severe shortages within the municipal govt, and can barely get someone to answer 911 sometimes. Growth just  for growth sakes isn't the proper way to grow, too much growth could drive away key things that defines a city. I think we should aim for sustainable growth rate of about 1% per year, since then it would give time to local governments to address the growth so that the quality of life here doesn't plummet.  

[eandslee]

8 hours ago, Child2021 said:

I'm not really interested in Richmond growing at an abnormally high rate.  We already have severe shortages within the municipal govt, and can barely get someone to answer 911 sometimes. Growth just  for growth sakes isn't the proper way to grow, too much growth could drive away key things that defines a city. I think we should aim for sustainable growth rate of about 1% per year, since then it would give time to local governments to address the growth so that the quality of life here doesn't plummet.  

If the local City government weren’t inept, growth at faster rates wouldn’t be a problem to keep up with!  Frustrating!

[Brent114]

39 minutes ago, eandslee said:

If the local City government weren’t inept, growth at faster rates wouldn’t be a problem to keep up with!  Frustrating!

I’m pretty sure all municipalities are underfunded and understaffed at the moment.   911 isn’t understaffed because some city worker forgot to check a box on a form.  It’s fun to claim that the city is  inept but city government is pretty average and better than a lot of higher profile cities.  

[eandslee]

1 hour ago, Brent114 said:

I’m pretty sure all municipalities are underfunded and understaffed at the moment.   911 isn’t understaffed because some city worker forgot to check a box on a form.  It’s fun to claim that the city is  inept but city government is pretty average and better than a lot of higher profile cities.  

It's not just funding - although the City gets a good share of the residents' money through relatively taxes.  It's what they do with that money - how it is managed.  Furthermore, the elected officials don't know how to run tap water, much-less run a City of 250K people!  The quality of City leadership is just bad.  I also think that priorities need to change.  The City needs business-minded leadership that is bullish on making changes to allow the City to grow and accommodate that growth as it happens.  Right now, the City just trips over itself.  It's a shame.

[123fakestreet]

11 hours ago, Child2021 said:

I'm not really interested in Richmond growing at a abnormally high rate.  We already have severe shortages within the municipal govt, and can barely get someone to answer 911 sometimes. Growth just  for growth sakes isn't the proper way to grow, too much growth could drive away key things that defines a city. I think we should aim for sustainable growth rate of about 1% per year, since then it would give time to local governments to address the growth so that the quality of life here doesn't plummet.  

The quality of life in this city has greatly increased as the growth has increased.  The best thing for those broken systems is growth.

The city isn't the county where roads and pipes and infrastructure need to be added for additional growth, all those things already exist.  The growth is filling in abandoned buildings and vacant lots and providing much needed tax revenue which is exactly what the city needs (and pretty much the only solution) to fix the broken systems.

Edited December 2, 2023 by 123fakestreet

[ancientcarpenter]

On 12/2/2023 at 12:29 AM, Child2021 said:

I'm not really interested in Richmond growing at a abnormally high rate.  We already have severe shortages within the municipal govt, and can barely get someone to answer 911 sometimes. Growth just  for growth sakes isn't the proper way to grow, too much growth could drive away key things that defines a city. I think we should aim for sustainable growth rate of about 1% per year, since then it would give time to local governments to address the growth so that the quality of life here doesn't plummet.  

Agreed. Tall buildings and boutique shops are cool to see but when I can't afford my own home in my own neighborhood anymore (and today I can't) then what's the point? I don't want RVA to become an upper middle class playground that hires artists to "graffiti art" the walls of buildings to make it look "cool" *cough shortpump cough* . And I bought my house less than a decade ago!

Edited December 4, 2023 by ancientcarpenter