Davidson West: Bellevue, Bordeaux, Green Hills, MetroCenter, Nations, N Nashville

[markhollin]

Thrive Homes (3 stores, 84 condos) update.   More excavation.  Markings placed.

Looking NW from intersection of California Ave. and 57th Ave. North:
 

[markhollin]

Silo Studio (rehab of 65,000 sq. ft. warehouse/factory for office space) update.

Looking NW from intersection of Centennial Blvd. and California Ave:

Looking east from Centennial Blvd. at 51st Ave. North:

 

Looking SE from 51st Ave. North, 1/2 block north of Centennial Blvd:




Looking south from intersection of 51st Ave. North and CSX tracks:

[markhollin]

Various townhome projects along Oceola Ave., South of Burgess Ave:

 

[markhollin]

Silo West Apts. (3 stories, 169 units) update. Exterior complete.

Looking NE from intersection of 54th Ave. North and CSX tracks:

 

Looking NW from CSX tracks, 1/2 block east of 54th Ave. North:

Looking east from northern end of complex:

[markhollin]

2AVES Townhomes (2 & 3 stories, 58 units) update. Some units now complete and open.

Looking SW from intersection of James Ave. and Vernon Ave:

Looking south from James Ave., 1/2 block west of Vernon Ave:

Looking NW from Vernon Ave., 1/2 block south of James Ave:

[markhollin]

Silo Bend Homes (49 two & three story houses) update.  About 50% erected.

Looking NW from intersection of 54th Ave.North and CSX tracks:

Looking south from inside the complex:

[markhollin]

The Rows at the Annex (2 & 3 story townhomes, 102 units) update. All buildings topped out.

Looking SW from James Ave., 1/2 block west of Vernon Ave:

 

[markhollin]

Faith Family Clinic (2 stories, 12,000 sq. ft.) update. Courtesy of REI Concrete.

 

[GregH]

Anyone know what's up at 3220-ish Charlotte? Looked like there was digging going on today. Development map just says "ST JOSEPH PROPERTIES"

[smeagolsfree]

I think it will be homes but not 100 % sure.

[markhollin]

Demoss Townhomes (3 stories, 20 units?) update:  First section nearly complete.

Looking NE from Demoss Rd., 1 block west of Oceola Ave:

Looking SE from Demoss Rd., 1/2 block south of Maudina Ave:

[markhollin]

Bringle's Smoking Oasis will be the name of the new BBQ restaurant at 4901 Centennial Blvd. (triangular lot at 49th Ave. North and Louisiana Ave.) will be the new restaurant developed by Carey Bringle of Peg Leg Porker.  It will incorporate the existing 2 story structure. “We’re going to keep the look and the feel of that old gas station,” Bringle said. “It’ll have a big yard area with a lot of outdoor space. We’re going to be surrounded by about 750 apartments and also commercial space across the street from us."  Plans are for a September opening. 

More at NBJ here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2020/02/27/exclusive-peg-leg-porker-owner-reveals-details-for.html?iana=hpmvp_nsh_news_headline

This screen shot from Smeagosfree's excellent development map show the site highlighted in teal at the center of the frame:
 

[markhollin]

The .4 acre triangular lot at 2315 Felicia St. (just a block north of Charlotte Ave.) has been bought by Richard Bacon of Cottage Partners.  There's a 1 story masonry building on the site that potentially could be redeveloped.  His plans will be announced over the next year.  The previous owner bought the same site 10 years ago for just $20,000.

Bacon has also redeveloped The 1865 (a tobacco barn built in 1865) into new condos, where all 45 units have been sold.

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/development/article/21118949/north-nashville-parcel-sells-for-12m

 

[markhollin]

Staybridge Hotel (4 stories, 163 rooms) update.  Cladding and brick work underway.

Looking SE from intersection of Charlotte Ave. and 22nd Ave. North:

Looking SW from intersection of Charlotte Ave. and 21st Ave. North:

 

Looking NW from 21st Ave. North, 1/2 block north of Murphy Ave:


 

Looking NE from 22nd Ave. North, 1/2 block north of Murphy Ave:

[AsianintheNations]

With this being a Census year, I wanted to look into something that’s been on my mind for awhile – I recall that some time ago, @smeagolsfree remarked that despite the increased density of housing, that the population (and therefore density) of neighborhoods like the Nations wasn’t actually increasing. I didn’t believe this at the time, but now I’ve finally found the numbers that show that he was not only right, but that the population has been actually decreasing, which is in agreement with the population of the city growing relatively slowly over the last few years despite appearances. Before my rambling discussion, here are the numbers I’ve found for Nashville’s Census Tract 133 (area 1.1 mi^2), which covers the Nations with the exception of the land north of Centennial Blvd (i.e. Silo Bend), which is grouped with John C Tune.

                                  Pop           Housing units
2000                       4540       1859
2010                       4004       1848
2018 est.              3575       1921
The 2000 and 2010 data were downloaded directly from the census website, while 2018 is from Census Reporter.

I don’t think that the numbers for 2018 are correct (see below for what I think the population really is), but let’s assume for a moment that these numbers are accurate. The factors that I think contribute the most to the decrease would be the following:
(1) More people lived in each of the old houses compared to the occupancy of the houses replacing them. Even the houses that aren’t being torn down are undergoing renovations, and for rentals, the new tenants are less densely packed in than the older ones. Some old rental houses seemed to hold 5-7 person families, and many have left, probably due to being priced out, replaced by 1-2 people.
(2) A certain proportion of the tall skinnies do not contribute to population, either because they are short-term rentals or because they have not yet been completed/sold. The former still adds practical population, but won’t be counted as residents. I count these below.
(3) Many of the old houses were occupied by older folks, and they are passing away at a certain rate. There have been estate sales popping up here and there, but I don’t think this is a large number compared to the above two reasons.
(4) The 2010 flood, with houses being replaced by England Park.

I do think that the 2020 census should show higher population and housing unit count compared to the posted 2018 estimate. I counted 806 tall skinnies on the latest satellite images, so at a 2:1 ratio that would be 403 net new housing units, 99% of which have been completed since 2010 – so 1921 total units is quite suspect (which is confusing because presumably the housing unit estimates are based on building permits, which ought to be pretty accurate). There are also the ~158 units between West Mill and Treaty Oaks that are completed and occupied. Silo Bend, Thrive Homes, the Lifestyle Communities building, and the 49^th and Tennessee Homes that are all underway won’t be a factor as they are either not yet built or outside of the census tract, but will add another 1000 units to the neighborhood in the next decade. Importantly, these 158 and 1000 replace industrial/commercial land, so they did not displace anyone.

To calculate the estimated housing unit and population change from 2010 to 2020:

                                                                Housing Units    People/unit          Total
2010 Baseline:                                    1848                       2.2                         4004
Lost units due to tall skinnies:     -403                      -2.44                      -984
Lost units due to 2010 flood:         -60*                    -2.44                      -146
New tall skinnies:                                 806                       1.75**                  1408
West Mill / Treaty Oaks:                  158                       1.5                            237
==================================================
2020 Estimate:                                   2349                       1.9                          4519

* Based on old vs new satellite imagery on Google Earth Pro. There were also a few houses lost when the I-40 & Briley interchange was redesigned in the late 2000s that I included in this.

** To arrive at this number: I know many of my neighbors and by far the most common household composition is a young married couple. I have also observed that the fertility rate is high as would be expected in this demographic, and probably a good 10% of these households have had a new family member arrive since moving in, which would be since 2010 (we’ve got 3 in the 14 new homes on my block). I believe that this cancels out roughly the 10% of houses that are only occupied by one person rather than a couple or roommates. A certain proportion of houses are short-term rentals. There are ~20 listed on AirBnB; there are also other websites like Turnkey, so let’s say that 50 of them are short-term rentals. 52 houses are still on sale per Zillow and therefore empty. So this is 806 – 102 = 704, x 2 gives 1408 new occupants for a net occupancy of 1.75 overall.

I’m not sure how well my estimate will fly against a pretty contradictory 2018 estimate (I’m eager to find out), but even my own calculations, which are probably on the higher side, don’t have the population exceeding the 2000 count. That said, the added population from the newest, denser developments will certainly have the potential to change the landscape drastically. And it remains to be seen what young parents will decide to do when their children reach school age. Lots of uncertainties but interesting to think about! Sorry for the wall of text and numbers. I promise my next post will be photos - I have a couple because things have been really moving around here lately.

Edited March 8, 2020 by AsianintheNations

[markhollin]

Connect @ City Heights (5 stories, 176 condos, 37,000 sq. ft. office/retail space) update.  Starting to move dirt.

Looking SE from Clifton Ave., 1/2 block east of 26th Ave. North:

Looking south from Clifton Ave., 1/2 block east of 26th Ave. North:

[smeagolsfree]

17 hours ago, AsianintheNations said:

With this being a Census year, I wanted to look into something that’s been on my mind for awhile – I recall that some time ago, @smeagolsfree remarked that despite the increased density of housing, that the population (and therefore density) of neighborhoods like the Nations wasn’t actually increasing. I didn’t believe this at the time, but now I’ve finally found the numbers that show that he was not only right, but that the population has been actually decreasing, which is in agreement with the population of the city growing relatively slowly over the last few years despite appearances. Before my rambling discussion, here are the numbers I’ve found for Nashville’s Census Tract 133 (area 1.1 mi^2), which covers the Nations with the exception of the land north of Centennial Blvd (i.e. Silo Bend), which is grouped with John C Tune.

                                  Pop           Housing units
2000                       4540       1859
2010                       4004       1848
2018 est.              3575       1921
The 2000 and 2010 data were downloaded directly from the census website, while 2018 is from Census Reporter.

I don’t think that the numbers for 2018 are correct (see below for what I think the population really is), but let’s assume for a moment that these numbers are accurate. The factors that I think contribute the most to the decrease would be the following:
(1) More people lived in each of the old houses compared to the occupancy of the houses replacing them. Even the houses that aren’t being torn down are undergoing renovations, and for rentals, the new tenants are less densely packed in than the older ones. Some old rental houses seemed to hold 5-7 person families, and many have left, probably due to being priced out, replaced by 1-2 people.
(2) A certain proportion of the tall skinnies do not contribute to population, either because they are short-term rentals or because they have not yet been completed/sold. The former still adds practical population, but won’t be counted as residents. I count these below.
(3) Many of the old houses were occupied by older folks, and they are passing away at a certain rate. There have been estate sales popping up here and there, but I don’t think this is a large number compared to the above two reasons.
(4) The 2010 flood, with houses being replaced by England Park.

I do think that the 2020 census should show higher population and housing unit count compared to the posted 2018 estimate. I counted 806 tall skinnies on the latest satellite images, so at a 2:1 ratio that would be 403 net new housing units, 99% of which have been completed since 2010 – so 1921 total units is quite suspect (which is confusing because presumably the housing unit estimates are based on building permits, which ought to be pretty accurate). There are also the ~158 units between West Mill and Treaty Oaks that are completed and occupied. Silo Bend, Thrive Homes, the Lifestyle Communities building, and the 49^th and Tennessee Homes that are all underway won’t be a factor as they are either not yet built or outside of the census tract, but will add another 1000 units to the neighborhood in the next decade. Importantly, these 158 and 1000 replace industrial/commercial land, so they did not displace anyone.

To calculate the estimated housing unit and population change from 2010 to 2020:

                                                                Housing Units    People/unit          Total
2010 Baseline:                                    1848                       2.2                         4004
Lost units due to tall skinnies:     -403                      -2.44                      -984
Lost units due to 2010 flood:         -60*                    -2.44                      -146
New tall skinnies:                                 806                       1.75**                  1408
West Mill / Treaty Oaks:                  158                       1.5                            237
==================================================
2020 Estimate:                                   2349                       1.9                          4519

* Based on old vs new satellite imagery on Google Earth Pro. There were also a few houses lost when the I-40 & Briley interchange was redesigned in the late 2000s that I included in this.

** To arrive at this number: I know many of my neighbors and by far the most common household composition is a young married couple. I have also observed that the fertility rate is high as would be expected in this demographic, and probably a good 10% of these households have had a new family member arrive since moving in, which would be since 2010 (we’ve got 3 in the 14 new homes on my block). I believe that this cancels out roughly the 10% of houses that are only occupied by one person rather than a couple or roommates. A certain proportion of houses are short-term rentals. There are ~20 listed on AirBnB; there are also other websites like Turnkey, so let’s say that 50 of them are short-term rentals. 52 houses are still on sale per Zillow and therefore empty. So this is 806 – 102 = 704, x 2 gives 1408 new occupants for a net occupancy of 1.75 overall.

I’m not sure how well my estimate will fly against a pretty contradictory 2018 estimate (I’m eager to find out), but even my own calculations, which are probably on the higher side, don’t have the population exceeding the 2000 count. That said, the added population from the newest, denser developments will certainly have the potential to change the landscape drastically. And it remains to be seen what young parents will decide to do when their children reach school age. Lots of uncertainties but interesting to think about! Sorry for the wall of text and numbers. I promise my next post will be photos - I have a couple because things have been really moving around here lately.

Wow, thanks for the numbers crunching Justin. My assumptions were pretty much based on my gut instinct and what I was seeing. I am glad in one way I was correct but in the general sense of things sad to see it.

I do think your accessment is correct about growing families which will have an impact that Metro seems to have overlooked and that is schools. They will have a shortage of classrooms as time goes on and these families grow. We will see what happens with this.

[MLBrumby]

I expect the population of Davidson County to come in at around 720K in this census. Just sayin'.  Seems like things were trending dramatically (and accelerating) upward during the first 2/3 of this decade, then came to a drastic slowdown just when the building (and economy) seemed to take off, and I'm not limiting that to downtown. There are so many residential units (single and multiple) where there used to be very little. Lots of vacant land in the whole area north and west of downtown were fields and/or parking lots and now apartments. Just look at Long Blvd... and streets a block away from Charlotte... just south of Gulch, along 12th Avenue, where a lot of apartment buildings replaced churches and small commercial buildings. Heck, just look at what the Gulch replaced... NOTHING! And just looking at the pics above, houses where there were vacant lots and/or single houses sitting where there are now 2 or 3.  I do believe Nashville's leadership needs to stress to her citizens that filling in the Census forms is extremely important. I wouldn't be surprised if 4-8% don't do it because they don't like 'big government' to know anything about them. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by MLBrumby

[Vrtigo]

On 3/8/2020 at 12:04 PM, smeagolsfree said:

I do think your accessment is correct about growing families which will have an impact that Metro seems to have overlooked and that is schools. They will have a shortage of classrooms as time goes on and these families grow. We will see what happens with this.

Not sure whether I agree with this or not... Your rationale makes sense if they stay where they are, but the majority of young families I know who live in the core are fleeing Metro for the 'burbs and their vastly superior school systems as their kids come of age.

[AsianintheNations]

1 hour ago, Vrtigo said:

the majority of young families I know who live in the core are fleeing Metro for the 'burbs and their vastly superior school systems as their kids come of age.

Yeah, that was what I was alluding to indirectly when I said, "And it remains to be seen what young parents will decide to do when their children reach school age." The ones who are staying seem to by and large send their kids to private school if they can afford it; the rest move south and southwest. I don't think overcrowding of metro public schools would really be the issue down the line, but rather that nothing will change in terms of the quality of the public schools because very few newcomer families are willing to individually decide to send their children to the closest public school (I'm referring to young professionals that represent the gentrifying population, not meaning this pejoratively - I'm one myself).  The elementary school in The Nations (Cockrill) has way below average marks compared to the state, and the state as a whole isn't exactly killing it ... but that is what happens when only the disadvantaged children in a neighborhood attend a school, and there unfortunately is not the force or urgency for improvement that in this society comes with bands of well-to-do and highly-educated parents. Parents can't be faulted for wanting the best schools for their kids, but the local public schools would benefit the most from the newcomers en masse deciding to all sending their children to the closest public school, and that would likely lift those who come from disadvantaged backgrounds as well (at least until students start getting segregated into different tiers of classes all over again). That and improved revenue streams that capitalize on the increase in the value of the land and houses literally across from the schools, but I think this is a secondary issue.

As it stands, even those families whose newborn children who are a stone's throw away from the schools here are already thinking about exit strategies once their kid turns 5. If such a pattern continues, this neighborhood will become a revolving door of a nursery, in essence, where people move to retain an urban connection to the city while still "settling down" and having a yard and a garage, make a baby or two, then give up and move to Brentwood or Franklin after five years. There have been plenty of articles written about "childless cities" and the fact that we millennials are turning out to be like salmon, returning to their suburban roots to raise their children despite growing up protesting that concept, but I have yet to see a plausible solution. Around the world, there are plenty of cities where children of all walks of life grow up, but they didn't have the same patterns of white flight/suburbanization and subsequent city revitalization and repopulation that's happened in the U.S., so it's hard to see a bridge from here to there.

Edited March 10, 2020 by AsianintheNations

[markhollin]

The 4.25 acre site at 649 Vernon Ave.  has been purchased by Elmington Capital Group for $2.6 million.   Rumors are that a 40 unit townhome development is being planned.

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/development/article/21120898/charlotte-park-site-sells-for-26m

 

[MLBrumby]

  That's over 1500 living units coming on line this year!  I haven't been to that area in probably a decade. I'm sure I wouldn't recognize anything. 

[MLBrumby]

Couple of questions... anyone here know if those houses are well built? In light of the tornado, I can just imagine those wooden exterior walls collapse under a EF2... much less than what blew through last week. What do Metro codes require? Anything specific to the force of a tornado? And please nobody reply that a tornado will wipe out anything in its path (I've been in two in my life and respect their immense power with awe,) but are these as solid as the concrete and masonry buildings? 

Also, are those chemical storage tanks still in use and for the foreseeable future. Do they increase the risk to the people living nearby?  

[Andrew_3289]

14 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Couple of questions... anyone here know if those houses are well built? In light of the tornado, I can just imagine those wooden exterior walls collapse under a EF2... much less than what blew through last week. What do Metro codes require? Anything specific to the force of a tornado? And please nobody reply that a tornado will wipe out anything in its path (I've been in two in my life and respect their immense power with awe,) but are these as solid as the concrete and masonry buildings? 

Also, are those chemical storage tanks still in use and for the foreseeable future. Do they increase the risk to the people living nearby?  

I've lived in my new build for almost 6 years in the Nations and the only issue ive had with the home is a leak an HVAC coil. Been happy with the quality of the build and haven't heard any horror stories about friends home's either. The biggest issues i'm aware of is infrastructure, i know several people who have had to add sub pumps under their homes because rain water pours down streets so bad and collects in some areas. The city always has at least 2 or three roads tore up to upgrade sewer flow and run off water but the pace at which the neighborhood is growing, its almost impossible to keep up. 

No homes to my knowledge were effected by the tornado which it's path was 1 mile from the neighborhood. 

Im not  a fan of the tanks, and i think they are an eye soar but i do not think the company has any plans for moving. There was an effort to try and get them painted with murals just to make them a little better but im not sure where that project is now. Will they keep people from moving to the neighborhood? My humble opinion, the demographic of people moving to that area are mostly young renters who value location and proximity to the city's core. When you look at prices and how far your dollar goes, the nations is still a reasonable place to rent an apartment. 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Andrew_3289

[GregH]

https://www.wsmv.com/news/neither-state-nor-nashville-have-adopted-recommended-wind-speed-standards/article_fbd3275c-6254-11ea-8c28-bbe362808a01.html

 

Quote

The International Code Council, which recommends standards for construction across the country, relies on experts to determine what kinds of wind speeds our homes at a risk of experiencing.

News4 Investigates first reported last year that in 2018, they deemed Tennessee homes should be built to withstand winds of 110 miles per hour, but the state fire marshal had only adopted their standards from 2009, which require homes to withstands speeds of 90 miles per hour.

The state fire marshal is still considering that stricter standard, as is Nashville.

 

Bill Herbert, director of metro codes and building safety, said they follow the direction of the state when it comes to building codes.