Charlotte-Douglas Airport (CLT) Expansion

[Miesian Corners]

http://www.travelandleisure.com/worlds-best-cruises-2014-winners-list#international-airports

 

CLT ranked the fourth best domestic airport by Travel and Leisure readers in its "Best of" poll for 2014.  

[Lloyds5]

http://www.travelandleisure.com/worlds-best-cruises-2014-winners-list#international-airports

 

CLT ranked the fourth best domestic airport by Travel and Leisure readers in its "Best of" poll for 2014.  

And our ranking will improve as the airport moves forward with the capital improvment program now underway

[ChessieCat]

AA takes delivery of its first 787 next month.  I believe they're supposed to fly Asia from DFW and LAX.  For the first six months or so, however, they will fly domestic while crews learn and kinks are worked out.  I have no idea if Paris will go year round.  I think probably not, although the route does have the shortest hiatus of all CLT's seasonal flying.  

 

Switching gears, I saw some flooring samples being tested last week on C Concourse.  Thank God that terrible carpeting at CLT will (hopefully) be replaced with solid surface flooring in 2015!  Also, currently new baggage to ticketing escalators, as well as new moving sidewalks on A Concourse are being installed.  

 

OwnsGermany on youtube is the top spotter of 787's at KPAE so we'll likely see AA's first 788 test flight vid in the near future.

[Dale]

That is crazy. Every time I'm out there it's like a war zone and is almost completely inaccessible.

[CLTProductions]

Inn other good airport news. http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2014/08/08/clt-traffic-up-2-6-for-first-half-of-the-year.html

 

Headline: "CLT traffic up 2.6% for first half of the year"

[ChessieCat]

CLT built a nicely landscaped island at the Airport Overlook.  Couldn't they have fixed the darned potholes at the entrance first?!!!

Edited August 11, 2014 by ChessieCat

[allthingsplanes]

Seriously...

 

On topic, I've been looking for any other info about the new entrance road (the portion of Little Rock Rd. being put through).  Anyone know where I can find that?

[southslider]

The entrance road is scheduled to open by Thanksgiving.

[15895]

Merging with American would 100% make CLT a never for Africa. American has been rumored to launch MIami-Africa routes for years.

I'll admit, even myself I was shocked when Rome, Madrid, and Dublin were announced. South America seemed logical to me. If US had the aircraft, I believe they would've launched Santiago, Chile no doubt.

I personally expect our South American flights and European flights to disappear though (excluding frankfurt, Munich, London, Madrid and maybe Paris) a net plus in daily flights (to the Midwest)

US has only 2 viable options now for long haul international flights. Combined here will be 7 options (Chicago, NYC, Miami, LA, Dallas, and Philadelphia and Charlotte). No doubt we will be above and beyond the 2nd largest American hub though

If anyone is going to get to say "I told you so" it's me, Mr. "Doom and Gloom"

I also thought & posted that despite losing our international flights, we could actually increase in passenger numbers & flights by growing in Midwestern cities like Oklahoma City & Des Moines that American was strong in.

I think route speculation is on topic if people don't go off topic about other airports. And it appears so far I'm going to be 100% on the money. Including the Munich flight with Lufthansa showing no signs of discontinuing it so far. I always figured Rome & Dublin will get cut a year or so after the initial obvious longhaul flights were cut.

Edited August 14, 2014 by AirNostrumMAD

[cltbwimob]

If anyone is going to get to say "I told you so" it's me, Mr. "Doom and Gloom"

I also thought & posted that despite losing our international flights, we could actually increase in passenger numbers & flights by growing in Midwestern cities like Oklahoma City & Des Moines that American was strong in.

I think route speculation is on topic if people don't go off topic about other airports. And it appears so far I'm going to be 100% on the money. Including the Munich flight with Lufthansa showing no signs of discontinuing it so far. I always figured Rome & Dublin will get cut a year or so after the initial obvious longhaul flights were cut.

I am going to disagree with you on Dublin. My reasoning is that CLT's O&D to Dublin is actually fairly similar to DFW's O&D to Dublin. Why does that matter? Because Aer Lingus is supposedly looking at serving DFW from Dublin. Aer Lingus would have to fly this route with an A330. I suspect that if Aer Lingus thinks they can do it, AA should be able to maintain the route from Charlotte especially with the combined advantages of connections and the fact that the route can be flown with a 757. But who knows these days? Edited August 14, 2014 by cltbwimob

[Lloyds5]

Aer Lingus is also looking at Mia and PHL, it does not mean they will launch anyone of them- so your comparison and thought process is incorrect   

[cltbwimob]

Aer Lingus is also looking at Mia and PHL, it does not mean they will launch anyone of them- so your comparison and thought process is incorrect

I did not know Aer Lingus was looking at MIA an PHL as well. I don't quite understand how that negates my argument. I was merely arguing given that O&D numbers to Dublin from both CLT and DFW are very similar, and given that the flight from Charlotte requires less resources (757 vs A330), and that AA has more connection opportunities, if Aer lingus sees opportunity in Dallas, then CLT should, from an economics standpoint, be able to maintain it's flight to Dublin. I did also caveat my statement, as my argument was merely based on an ostensible similarity between the two markets. As I said in my previous post, "who knows these days"?

Slightly off topic, but if I may inquire, what is the etymology of your screen name? Is it perchance based on something British?

Edited August 14, 2014 by cltbwimob

[Lloyds5]

I work in commercial Insurance and in fact worked at Lloyds of London for several years insuring commercial airline fleets- hence the name. My point was that an airline can look at a number of cities but does not mean they will actually start service for example: Aer Lingus is looking at; PHL, Mia and DFW and its being reported that Iberia is looking at PHL but studying a route and actually launching it are two different things so arguing that DFW is similar to CLT really has no bearing. Since there is no service between DFW and DUB you cant compare O&D because typically when there is no Non Stop O&D numbers  tend to be low and are stimulated when non stop service is initiated. For example CLT-GIG(RIO) had 3 passengers a day before service was initiated and that number grew 4 fold to like 8  passengers a day within two years of service being launched. That's why I don't think you can compare a market with Non Stop service and one without....  

[cltbwimob]

I work in commercial Insurance and in fact worked at Lloyds of London for several years insuring commercial airline fleets- hence the name. My point was that an airline can look at a number of cities but does not mean they will actually start service for example: Aer Lingus is looking at; PHL, Mia and DFW and its being reported that Iberia is looking at PHL but studying a route and actually launching it are two different things so arguing that DFW is similar to CLT really has no bearing. Since there is no service between DFW and DUB you cant compare O&D because typically when there is no Non Stop O&D numbers tend to be low and are stimulated when non stop service is initiated. For example CLT-GIG(RIO) had 3 passengers a day before service was initiated and that number grew 4 fold to like 8 passengers a day within two years of service being launched. That's why I don't think you can compare a market with Non Stop service and one without....

The numbers to which I am referring come from a Brookings Institute study released in late 2012 which cites 2011 figures. I am sure you are aware that CLT-DUB started in 2011 and only flew approximately four months that year; it was hardly a mature route at that time. In essence, I am comparing a market with no nonstop service to a market, which, at the time, had nonstop service for a total of four months. The "nonstop effect" likely has little bearing given that the numbers referenced are annualized and that the flight only flew 1/3 of the year that year. Hence, the comparison between the DFW local market and the Charlotte market, based on Brookings numbers, is very much a fair comparison.

I am aware that studying a route and starting a route are two entirely different things. Perhaps framing the argument in light of a rhetorical question or two will help make my point. Assuming the similarities between the two markets are accurately portrayed by the Brookings numbers, how could Aer Lingus possibly think DFW would even have a shot, if, as you predict, CLT-DUB is a failure, especially given that the CLT-DUB route is shorter, requires an aircraft with 100-150 less seats, requires substantially less fuel, has much better connection opportunities, and that CLT's landing fees are lower on a per passenger basis than DFW's? Based on the given framework, why would they even bother putting the effort into market analysis if an "underperforming" flight that will presumably fail is already there to serve as a guide? Based on your cursory analysis of the CLT-DUB route and the prediction of its ultimate failure, for Aer Lingus to even analyze the DFW market would just be an exercise in futility.

Edited August 15, 2014 by cltbwimob

[kickazzz2000]

The numbers to which I am referring come from a Brookings Institute study released in late 2012 which cites 2011 figures. I am sure you are aware that CLT-DUB started in 2011 and only flew approximately four months that year; it was hardly a mature route at that time. In essence, I am comparing a market with no nonstop service to a market, which, at the time, had nonstop service for a total of four months. The "nonstop effect" likely has little bearing given that the numbers referenced are annualized and that the flight only flew 1/3 of the year that year. Hence, the comparison between the DFW local market and the Charlotte market, based on Brookings numbers, is very much a fair comparison.

I am aware that studying a route and starting a route are two entirely different things. Perhaps framing the argument in light of a rhetorical question or two will help make my point. Assuming the similarities between the two markets are accurately portrayed by the Brookings numbers, how could Aer Lingus possibly think DFW would even have a shot, if, as you predict, CLT-DUB is a failure, especially given that the CLT-DUB route is shorter, requires an aircraft with 100-150 less seats, requires substantially less fuel, has much better connection opportunities, and that CLT's landing fees are lower on a per passenger basis than DFW's? Based on the given framework, why would they even bother putting the effort into market analysis if an "underperforming" flight that will presumably fail is already there to serve as a guide? Based on your cursory analysis of the CLT-DUB route and the prediction of its ultimate failure, for Aer Lingus to even analyze the DFW market would just be an exercise in futility.

Well, he also thinks 3 to 8 is a four-fold change.  so...

[Lloyds5]

Kickazz  thanks for your eloquently worded response to my obvious typo, you certainly are a class act. back to Cltbwimob's argument, I don't think airlines look at other routes to other cities i.e looking at CLT- Dub as a guide to how DFW might perform,they might look at how Phl-Dub performed if they are considering PHL but less likely to different cities. Too many variables that are different, airlines have different costs including labor, Aircraft cost, fuel at origin or destination, landing fees, potential cargo contracts, etc. I would also argue DFW has better connectivity than CLT to the Midwest and west. The problem I see with CLT-Dub is the same I see with CLT-FCO. These routes are served from 3 or 4 hubs in the case of FCO and AA will have to rationalize which cities will keep their flights(phl is the only one that offers year round service to DUB  and FCO- 2015 will see a 23 day suspension of Rome due to aircraft painting and MCE seating adjustments but with such a short suspension is still effectively year round ). I think CLT is competing with ORD and JFK for these seasonal flights and in spite of higher operating costs and less connectivity at ORD and JFK they have multiples the O&D CLT has that's why I believe CLT will be the loser in the international consolidation that is happening at US/AA. Same as happened with the Brazil flights, DFW and MIA clearly have much better O&D in spite of higher operating costs and in the case of MIA much less connectivity- therefore Brazil flying will be consolidated at those Airports. Remember US Airways relied on CLT as the seasonal reliever for flights to Europe after PHL. They used Charlotte to route cheap connections but now with US/AA's new operating costs much of that flying will be rendered obsolete. Also, the JV with British Airways allows for connections to secondary cities in Europe that can be routed over LHR and the revenue is shared- that's why US/AA/BA are adding the second CLT-LHR flight. I agree with AirNostruMad that CLT will be drawn down to :LhR, Fra and Mad, but I don't see CDG continuing and MUC's viability I think is questionable at best. Flying to the islands will be much less impacted

Edited August 15, 2014 by Lloyds5

[cltbwimob]

^^^A couple of points if I may:

1. Airlines absolutely look to other city pairs when evaluating routes. In fact, this was the impetus for Aer Lingus to consider DFW in the first place.

2. DFW may have better connections than CLT for AA to the west, however the argument is a red herring considering that Aer Lingus does not partner with AA. Aer Lingus has zero opportunity to leverage AA's connectivity to the west.

3. JFK has so much O&D and so little connectivity that I think it's safe to assume the effect of JFK on CLT is completely negligible. ORD admittedly has a lot of connectivity, but there is not a great deal of overlap between markets, meaning the connections are complimentary, not competitive. Furthermore, AA has competition for Dublin passengers in both JFK and ORD but especially in JFK. Flights from PHL and CLT to Dublin existed in the legacy US Airways system. They existed as complimentary services prior to the merger and should continue to do so.

4. MUC-CLT is profitable according to Lufthansa. Furthermore, according to an article I recently read regarding this particular flight, approximately 25% of the demand is driven by CLT O&D and 50% of the demand is driven by connections fon the Europe (Lufthansa) side. In other words, 75% of the demand for this flight comes from Lufthansa, not connections from US Airways. Finally, given the powers that be in Lufthansa say that this flight could exist on corporate business alone, I doubt it's going anywhere. But once again, who knows? The ability of airline executives to double-speak is surpassed only by that of politicians.

5. Finally, while I am at it, I must quibble with your prediction a couple of weeks ago of the disappearance of the CLT-MEX route. That route is the fourth largest international market from CLT based on local O&D. Larger than even CLT-FRA. I think it's safe.

Edited August 15, 2014 by cltbwimob

[southslider]

On keeping Charlotte low-cost and competitive, I think the Observer reported that Dallas has a tax cap, or the airlines are basically reimbursed for taxes. Should we be worried that North Carolina's cap for airlines expires at the end of this year? Or that Mecklenburg is seeking to further increase taxes?

[Miesian Corners]

On keeping Charlotte low-cost and competitive, I think the Observer reported that Dallas has a tax cap, or the airlines are basically reimbursed for taxes. Should we be worried that North Carolina's cap for airlines expires at the end of this year? Or that Mecklenburg is seeking to further increase taxes?

I bet DFW does have a cap, but I don't know for sure.  Regardless, it angers me that AA Group has made this a big deal.  It's an approximate $500K-- annual cost for a company that makes billions--a cost that will benefit an entire community where it does a great deal of business.  Sad, one would hope they'd want the best for the children of their 9K Charlotte-based employees--I guess not.

[Miesian Corners]

New A/B connector is coming along at a fairly quick pace.  The new addition will include new moving sidewalks between TSA check point A and Concourse B, two new restaurants, office space, and ultimately, the square footage needed for the new $25 million in-line checked baggage system and TSA baggage screening.  Anticipated opening for public space is Thanksgiving.

[Lloyds5]

CltBob I am going to disagree or comment on the following points:

 

Aer Lingus was part of one world and pulled out in 2007 because of a low cost model they were following at that time, they still work closely and code share with many of the one world partners in fact IAG's chairman (British Airways and Iberia Holding Company) Chairman Willy Walsh is the ex CEO of Aer Lingus. I don't find it at all coincidental that Aer Lingus is looking at potentially flying to: PHL, MIA and DFW- all One World Hubs, I think its because they will partner with AA to feed those flights if they actually launch.

 

CLT-Dub was never  complimentary with PHL-Dub, CLT was simply a reliever for a very successful year round service out of PHL ,if  it was complimentary why not a longer flying season or year round service.

 

I cant comment on CLT- MUC profitability as I am not privy to that data, my thoughts come from thinking how is Lufthansa going to fill a 250 seat aircraft year round with diminished connectivity on the CLT side due to US's Star Exit

 

CLT-MEX has a load factor of 67% year round LF well below average(that's a fact), and with MIA and DFW supporting multiple flights daily to MEX, I see the same effect as with Brazil, why support a poor performer when you can route the traffic over multiple hubs with heavy O&D to MEX. the only difference here is we are not talking using two wide bodies daily but a single A319.

 

Again, AA is not going to operate seasonal flights to 3 or 4 Hubs CLT, ORD and JFK, most PHL services are year round or PHL is the only seasonal gateway as in the case of Athens, Venice, etc. Your argument that since JFK is all O&D and its effect is negligible is incorrect, AA will look at yield and determine the most profitable place from which to fly the aircraft and its the O&D that is CLT's weakest spot and that produces the poorest yields . This is evidenced by a recent article in the Charlotte Observer where an AA executive was quoted as saying that CLT has the lowest revenue per passenger of all the east coast hubs for AA and they include; JFK,PHL, DCA and MIA. Couple that with the  increased costs of the new AA and it does not bode well for CLT and international. I am also going to state that I think some of CLT's domestic operation will be rendered unprofitable in the future and the CLT Hub will settle in at around 500 flights a day when US/AA are fully integrated several years from now. Further, there will be no need for 5 or 6 flights a day to SFO and LAX but maybe 3 per day when many SE passengers can be routed over DFW, etc. We are going to disagree on this and I will get beaten for saying it but that's how I see it.

[HopHead]

 

 

New A/B connector is coming along at a fairly quick pace.  The new addition will include new moving sidewalks between TSA check point A and Concourse B, two new restaurants, office space, and ultimately, the square footage needed for the new $25 million in-line checked baggage system and TSA baggage screening.  Anticipated opening for public space is Thanksgiving.

 

 

Good to see the A/B connector is coming along so fast... Don't frequent that area of the airport too much but will have to check it out in a few weeks when I'm there.

[Lloyds5]

MC, I don't know if Dallas has a cap or not but I think AA is posturing with CLT and will use the tax hike as a reason to cut service. I have been wondering if adding CLT-LIS, BRU, MAD and MAN was a political ploy to lead local leaders in North Carolina to support the merger even though USAir knew these flights would not work. Now that the merger is approved and consummated I can see them using the opposite logic and saying these routes are not profitable and they have eroded other transatlantic yields therefore we are pulling down much of the international flying from CLT. I just find it odd that all of a sudden the rhetoric has turned negative around CLT i.e Tax Hike, Hub with the lowest revenue per passenger on the east coast blah, blah, blah, and I find it rather disingenuous. Am I the only one seeing it this way? 

[Rufus]

As an outsider to the various topics of this conversation, what is more important in the overall health of an airport -- international service or domestic service.  IMO, our international service is great, and will still be great if some of the routes are cut, but I don't see them as that important for Charlotte in comparison to connecting with a crap load of domestic locations.  If we are in agreement that the yields in international service are quite low, that still doesn't seem to be anything more than a drop in the bucket in terms of passenger #s and economic impact.  The number of connecting passengers will still be higher than those with O/D.  To me, international service is all vanity.  Let's hit the major international points like London, Frankfurt, and Paris and continue to be a major domestic connection point.

 

Am I right in this thinking or am I missing something?

[clt29301]

Lloyd, help me a little, are you now suggesting that AA is going to cut Charlotte's hub by using the tax excuse? And, I have asked before but you constantly use one metric as a basis for cutting service, O&D. Using one metric to base decisions is a terrible business plan, AA could raise the O&D factor by reducing prices. Atlanta has a low O&D factor, there is more to life than one metric. AA will not be a success by cutting their flights especially leaving the fast growing southeastern market to Delta. How would this merger be a success by leaving a fast growing region with a large population to Delta while building up a slow growth market like Phil? you may respond by saying this is not what you are saying which is part of the point, your posts are slanted towards trashing Charlotte without substantiative facts, not sure what you think. Working at Loyds is nice but it does not make me believe someone who is posting newspaper materials as reference.

In the short term, Charlotte should retain London, Frankfurt, Munich and Paris. Longer term, especially with planes like the 787, other European markets are more viable.