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Richmond International Airport


eandslee

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40 minutes ago, eandslee said:

RIC’s July statistics just got posted. It’s really good, but not good enough to beat ORF in July. ORF had about 466K passengers. Flight cancellations plagued RIC last month.  Here’s the raw data: 

 

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I do believe we're still well ahead of ORF in YTD totals - they only beat us by 1,500 passengers in June - and 26K in July - and both months were plagued by weather-related cancellations that somehow impacted Richmond but not Hampton Roads.

The REALLY GOOD NEWS however is: if we maintain our current pace in year-over-year volume increase 2023 vs 2022 - we're still on track to break 5 million passengers. Right now, rough estimate says we're on pace to just eek over the finish line at 5,007,660 if we can keep up this 19.23% rate of increase for the rest of this year. And hopefully our August numbers will be MUCH better (were there any major weather-related flight cancellations at RIC this month?) - and we can retake our normal position above ORF.

C'mon Richmond - LET'S MAKE THIS HAPPEN!!! Every additional passenger passing through RIC gets us one passenger closer to...

44 GATES!!!

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56 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

RIC again (hoping for MCO and TPA to return, plus maybe Nashville to be added).

YES! Another person wants MCO and TPA back! I'm a broken record at this point by how many times I keep saying we need those routes back (especially if the jetBlue Spirit Merger goes through).

Denver is gonna be awesome to have back next week. I think PDEW numbers support DAL for Southwest and Nashville as well... hopefully soon we get Southwest to expand out of here.

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21 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

YES! Another person wants MCO and TPA back! I'm a broken record at this point by how many times I keep saying we need those routes back (especially if the jetBlue Spirit Merger goes through).

Denver is gonna be awesome to have back next week. I think PDEW numbers support DAL for Southwest and Nashville as well... hopefully soon we get Southwest to expand out of here.

If we could get MCO, TPA, DFW and BNA with Southwest - wow - that would make quite a difference.

Wonder how routes competing with Breeze would impact Breeze's use of RIC as an unofficial but defacto "mini hub"?

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1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

If we could get MCO, TPA, DFW and BNA with Southwest - wow - that would make quite a difference.

Wonder how routes competing with Breeze would impact Breeze's use of RIC as an unofficial but defacto "mini hub"?

If southwest added flights from Richmond to Dallas, they would fly to Dallas Love field, not DFW as Dallas Love is one of their largest hubs. 
 

As far as how they could compete with Breeze, the only route I could see southwest interested in that Breeze flies would be to Tampa, as both have focus cities at that airport. Who knows if that route will even come back as I’d think southwest would add Orlando prior to Tampa, but honestly who knows.

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38 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

If southwest added flights from Richmond to Dallas, they would fly to Dallas Love field, not DFW as Dallas Love is one of their largest hubs. 
 

As far as how they could compete with Breeze, the only route I could see southwest interested in that Breeze flies would be to Tampa, as both have focus cities at that airport. Who knows if that route will even come back as I’d think southwest would add Orlando prior to Tampa, but honestly who knows.

Ahh - good ol' Love Field - man, that airport's been around FOREVER!! Thanks for the clarification on that one, @blopp1234:tw_thumbsup:

Okay - only Tampa would be in play between Southwest and Breeze.

That said, we'll certainly take Orlando from Southwest for now. While I'd certainly welcome the competition to/from Tampa, I worry about cannibalizing destinations - and we've got a VERY good thing going with Breeze at this point. Mind you - I'd LOVE it if Southwest would make a serious push to hook RIC up to a robust number of destinations. Do I take it, though, that Southwest acts like the other legacy carriers in that they'll connect RIC to a hub but not necessarily do what Breeze is doing and do direct city-to-city routes?

So Southwest to Denver comes back Sept. 5th. What's the frequency?

Based on the potential volume stats - Dallas, Nashville, Tampa and Orlando are our best bets for new service from Southwest? As Southwest get their pilot shortage situation sorted out, is there real potential that they'll ramp up service to/from RIC - particularly given the great success Breeze is having here?

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19 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Ahh - good ol' Love Field - man, that airport's been around FOREVER!! Thanks for the clarification on that one, @blopp1234:tw_thumbsup:

Okay - only Tampa would be in play between Southwest and Breeze.

That said, we'll certainly take Orlando from Southwest for now. While I'd certainly welcome the competition to/from Tampa, I worry about cannibalizing destinations - and we've got a VERY good thing going with Breeze at this point. Mind you - I'd LOVE it if Southwest would make a serious push to hook RIC up to a robust number of destinations. Do I take it, though, that Southwest acts like the other legacy carriers in that they'll connect RIC to a hub but not necessarily do what Breeze is doing and do direct city-to-city routes?

So Southwest to Denver comes back Sept. 5th. What's the frequency?

Based on the potential volume stats - Dallas, Nashville, Tampa and Orlando are our best bets for new service from Southwest? As Southwest get their pilot shortage situation sorted out, is there real potential that they'll ramp up service to/from RIC - particularly given the great success Breeze is having here?

Southwest to Denver will fly 1x per day. This is on top of United’s 2x daily flights to Denver, for a total of 3x daily flights from RIC to Denver.

 

As far as other destinations southwest could add out of Richmond, Houston Hobby airport and St Louis come to mind as semi long shots, as moderate Origin and destination passenger numbers could be supplemented via passengers connecting to both of those airport pleathers of southwest flights. Only time will tell though!

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40 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

Southwest to Denver will fly 1x per day. This is on top of United’s 2x daily flights to Denver, for a total of 3x daily flights from RIC to Denver.

 

As far as other destinations southwest could add out of Richmond, Houston Hobby airport and St Louis come to mind as semi long shots, as moderate Origin and destination passenger numbers could be supplemented via passengers connecting to both of those airport pleathers of southwest flights. Only time will tell though!

Wow - if Southwest was ready, willing and able to step up to the plate, they could have a rather impressive roster of destinations to/from RIC then.

Lessee:  Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Nashville, St. Louis, Denver - maybe Tampa, though that's Breeze's for now - but still. So potentially six or seven direct destinations via Southwest. THAT would be a HUGE win for RIC and RVA if that came to pass - and I think adding those direct destinations would likely be enough to kick us up and over the 5 million mark at the rate we're going.

Questions:

1.) If RIC cracks the 5 million barrier either this year or in 2024 - what effect will that have on attracting additional service here, either via more direct routes, more frequent flights or additional airlines such as Frontier and Alaska Air to come here? (And all of this is not even counting what might happen next year when the international gate is operational and we start getting international flights again.)

2.) Even if 2023 falls just short of 5 million (say in the 4.8 to 4.9 million range - which, barring anything unforeseen, I think should be a slam dunk) - what effect will that have going into 2024? (same as above - more frequent flights, more destinations, more airlines...)

Edited by I miss RVA
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Some slight new NEWS on a NEW ROUTE!
I was doing some looking, and apparently I'm the first one to see (BEFORE ISHRION), that RIC - TPA will have SPIRIT AIRLINES start nonstop routes there this winter, competing with Breeze!

Appears to start November 15th, operating at 4x weekly (Mon, Wed, Fri, Sat).

image.thumb.png.3ace5c75a9c86990807f2e22842aac6d.png

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43 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

Some slight new NEWS on a NEW ROUTE!
I was doing some looking, and apparently I'm the first one to see (BEFORE ISHRION), that RIC - TPA will have SPIRIT AIRLINES start nonstop routes there this winter, competing with Breeze!

Appears to start November 15th, operating at 4x weekly (Mon, Wed, Fri, Sat).

image.thumb.png.3ace5c75a9c86990807f2e22842aac6d.png

Great find! Really didn’t see this coming.

 

Should be interesting to see how Breeze responds as this route has been a cash cow for Breeze with aircraft consistently over 80% full while operating daily.

Edited by blopp1234
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So I was just thinking about it: RIC is getting two new direct routes - RIC to DEN on Southwest, daily, beginning next month, and RIC-TPA on Spirit, 4 x per week, beginning mid-November. That additional service should help bump our passenger numbers up just a tad - always a good thing. Now, if remember serves, Southwest and Spirit at this time have the most limited service to/from RIC, yes?

That said: we were talking the other day about potential future routes for Southwest to/from RIC: Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Nashville, St. Louis, - maybe Tampa. (TPA would be interesting IF it ever came to pass because that would mean three carriers serving this route - Breeze, Southwest, Spirit - wow!) 

So what about Spirit? What are potential direct destinations to/from RIC that Spirit could pick up and add to the Richmond portfolio?

Again, unless I'm way off, seems like Southwest and Spirit are the two carriers that have the greatest potential to significantly expand RIC service. Circling back to a previous point/question: the "origin-destination" model that Breeze is making ridiculously successful with RIC - is this something other airlines might start gravitating to? Say, particularly Spirit or Southwest? Or is RIC forever stuck in the "service to major hubs" paradigm for the legacy carriers?

ALSO - what about Allegiant? The MSP route is their only RIC service at this time, correct? And isn't that seasonal? Is there potential that Allegiant could perhaps expand some of their RIC offerings?

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7 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

So I was just thinking about it: RIC is getting two new direct routes - RIC to DEN on Southwest, daily, beginning next month, and RIC-TPA on Spirit, 4 x per week, beginning mid-November. That additional service should help bump our passenger numbers up just a tad - always a good thing. Now, if remember serves, Southwest and Spirit at this time have the most limited service to/from RIC, yes?

That said: we were talking the other day about potential future routes for Southwest to/from RIC: Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Nashville, St. Louis, - maybe Tampa. (TPA would be interesting IF it ever came to pass because that would mean three carriers serving this route - Breeze, Southwest, Spirit - wow!) 

So what about Spirit? What are potential direct destinations to/from RIC that Spirit could pick up and add to the Richmond portfolio?

Again, unless I'm way off, seems like Southwest and Spirit are the two carriers that have the greatest potential to significantly expand RIC service. Circling back to a previous point/question: the "origin-destination" model that Breeze is making ridiculously successful with RIC - is this something other airlines might start gravitating to? Say, particularly Spirit or Southwest? Or is RIC forever stuck in the "service to major hubs" paradigm for the legacy carriers?

ALSO - what about Allegiant? The MSP route is their only RIC service at this time, correct? And isn't that seasonal? Is there potential that Allegiant could perhaps expand some of their RIC offerings?

News from Ishrion, I guessed I missed this, but Spirit will also start RIC-RSW  nonstop. This also completes with Breeze.

 

So we have RIC-TPA & RIC-RSW as new routes from Breeze now. I think a theme we'll see down the road, is spirit trying to limit Breeze's growth out of here.

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2 hours ago, Niccckk said:

News from Ishrion, I guessed I missed this, but Spirit will also start RIC-RSW  nonstop. This also completes with Breeze.

 

So we have RIC-TPA & RIC-RSW as new routes from Breeze now. I think a theme we'll see down the road, is spirit trying to limit Breeze's growth out of here.

Wow! Didn’t expect that. Apparently ORF also got both TPA and RSW at the same frequencies as RIC. 
 

TPA: 4x per week

RSW: 3x per week

 

Seems Spirit is launching a full fledged attack on Breeze at RIC and CHS. Should be interesting to see how Breeze responds as they are priced similarly. Hopefully both routes can sustain both, but who knows.

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7 hours ago, blopp1234 said:

Wow! Didn’t expect that. Apparently ORF also got both TPA and RSW at the same frequencies as RIC. 
 

TPA: 4x per week

RSW: 3x per week

 

Seems Spirit is launching a full fledged attack on Breeze at RIC and CHS. Should be interesting to see how Breeze responds as they are priced similarly. Hopefully both routes can sustain both, but who knows.

Wow... while I'm certainly glad that Spirit is (FINALLY) increasing their presence at RIC - I worry about route cannibalization and the impact it might have on Breeze. RIC has a REALLY GOOD THING going with Breeze using it as an unnamed, unofficial "mini-hub" - and I've been hoping they (Breeze) will either add a few more of the Breeze routes that RIC doesn't have (that the focus city airports have) or increase flight frequencies on existing routes - or preferably, do BOTH. Again, glad to see Spirit finally starting to put both feet into the water here - I just hope the RIC market can sustain both airlines.

Okay - airline/airport gurus (and, @blopp1234, @Niccckkand @eandslee that means you!) -- what do you see as a potential strategy that could help Breeze yet allow for Spirit to significantly ramp up service here? Do Breeze-throughs help? Would adding the "missing" routes to the Breeze-RIC portfolio help? Does Spirit REALLY have the moxy (and, more importantly, the money!) to try to mirror Breeze and match them route-for-route?

Looking at the new Florida service - Spirit will be flying to TPA 4x per week - and RSW 3x per week. What's Breeze's frequency at this time?

Realizing I'm just a layman - but I'd much prefer Spirit connect RIC with currently unserved markets in their portfolio for which Richmond has at least a promising DPEW figure and could make work (particularly if Spirit is the only carrier connecting RIC to those destinations). Ditto Southwest. I'd really like to see them add different direct routes to/from RIC - but I worry that they're not looking at us as an option for "origin-and-destination" service the way Breeze does. I SOOO wish RIC could get out of the paradigm of simply being a "feeder" to hubs for the legacy carriers.

Either @Niccckkor @blopp1234-- not all that long ago, didn't one (or both) of you mention that the airline industry overall actually IS moving in that direction and slowly (even if only incrementally) moving away from the hub-spoke model - and that this shift ultimately will benefit airports like RIC? ALSO - does Breeze's success in direct flights to destinations (such as LAX, LAS, PHO, among others) that the legacy airlines were averse to establishing into/out of RIC open the door for the other airlines to follow suit and actually take more of a chance on those kinds of direct flights to primary markets that, until just a year or two ago, were a non-starter for RIC? I can't help but wonder if we could see something like an Alaska Air test out an RIC-SEA route in the next year or two.

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2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

Do Breeze-throughs help? Would adding the "missing" routes to the Breeze-RIC portfolio help? Does Spirit REALLY have the moxy (and, more importantly, the money!) to try to mirror Breeze and match them route-for-route?

Spirit's route network is far superior to Breeze's so anyone who wants to connect to other airports, it is easier with Spirit. Although this likely does not apply to Fort Myers or Tampa as these are both pretty leisure destinations out of Richmond.

 

2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

What's Breeze's frequency at this time?

Spirit matched Breeze's flight days and frequencies for Fort Myers, and I believe Breeze is doing Tampa 4-6x weekly now, with Spirit doing it 4x weekly.

Tampa has just enough passenger demand out of here to support two airlines flying this route, so I think it's a win win for us consumers, since we get 2 different flight options to Tampa, plus decreased prices due to competition on the route. Fort Myers, on the other hand, only can really be sustainable for one airline to fly it, so I think we'll definitely see Breeze & Spirit fight out on that one to see who wins... and based on Las Vegas, I think Spirit might take over again, however I could be wrong. 

2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

- does Breeze's success in direct flights to destinations (such as LAX, LAS, PHO, among others) that the legacy airlines were averse to establishing into/out of RIC open the door for the other airlines to follow suit and actually take more of a chance on those kinds of direct flights to primary markets that, until just a year or two ago, were a non-starter for RIC?

One hundred percent. Breeze is taking the risk here, and they are showing that there is true passenger demand for these flights. I think once (if) these flights get upgraded frequencies to 5-7x weekly, I think we'll see the legacy carriers chime in and maybe hop on those routes, since at that point Breeze would be starting to chip into their markets more prominently. I've said this a lot, but I won't be surprised if down the road we see United hop on with SFO, or American/Southwest adding Phoenix. This is a few years down the road, but I think it is definitely feasible for that to happen.

 

2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

I can't help but wonder if we could see something like an Alaska Air test out an RIC-SEA route in the next year or two.

I think it is just a matter of time before we get Seattle. PDEW numbers support the route, and if I remember, the airport commission wants Alaska Air to serve that route, which would be amazing to see!

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1 hour ago, Niccckk said:

Spirit's route network is far superior to Breeze's so anyone who wants to connect to other airports, it is easier with Spirit. Although this likely does not apply to Fort Myers or Tampa as these are both pretty leisure destinations out of Richmond.

 

Spirit matched Breeze's flight days and frequencies for Fort Myers, and I believe Breeze is doing Tampa 4-6x weekly now, with Spirit doing it 4x weekly.

Tampa has just enough passenger demand out of here to support two airlines flying this route, so I think it's a win win for us consumers, since we get 2 different flight options to Tampa, plus decreased prices due to competition on the route. Fort Myers, on the other hand, only can really be sustainable for one airline to fly it, so I think we'll definitely see Breeze & Spirit fight out on that one to see who wins... and based on Las Vegas, I think Spirit might take over again, however I could be wrong. 

One hundred percent. Breeze is taking the risk here, and they are showing that there is true passenger demand for these flights. I think once (if) these flights get upgraded frequencies to 5-7x weekly, I think we'll see the legacy carriers chime in and maybe hop on those routes, since at that point Breeze would be starting to chip into their markets more prominently. I've said this a lot, but I won't be surprised if down the road we see United hop on with SFO, or American/Southwest adding Phoenix. This is a few years down the road, but I think it is definitely feasible for that to happen.

 

I think it is just a matter of time before we get Seattle. PDEW numbers support the route, and if I remember, the airport commission wants Alaska Air to serve that route, which would be amazing to see!

Thanks, @Niccckkfor the good information! A few follow up questions:

1.) Spirit's network is superior to Breeze's: Wondering how RIC parlays that into increased service? So by adding the two FL destinations, Spirit will have how many routes out of RIC? Three? (LAS, TPA and Ft. Myers)?  Or are they flying elsewhere out of Richmond? What's the over-under on them doing some origin-destination routes out of RIC rather than just funneling us through one of their hubs or focus cities? I'm really hoping we see airlines such as Spirit and Southwest bring NEW routes to RIC, rather than just taking us to a hub for connect-ups to other cities that really should have direct service to/from Richmond.

2.) Tampa/passenger volume: Good to know - and I'm glad that route can support two competing airlines without getting cannibalized. That's one of the biggest things that worries me about Spirit making a move now on some of Breeze's routes - that instead of RIC getting MORE service, we end up with cannibalized service that could be a net loss. Not suggesting by any means that less is more - if anything, I'm advocating for more is more! I hope the economics of it bears that out!

3.) It would be fantastic for United jump into the fray with SFO and either American or Southwest add Phoenix. Again, not wanting them to make a run at Breeze, since Breeze is obviously VERY good for RIC.  I get the feeling though that at least United and American (if not also Southwest) are still uber-entrenched in the hub-and-spoke paradigm and getting them to sign on for origin-destination routes out of RIC is going to require a huge leap of faith. Hoping I'm wrong on this one.

4.) It would be fantastic to see Alaska Air come in with SEA. Boy would that be great! I hope and pray the airport commission REALLY puts on the full-court press to land them.

5.) Speaking of landing: Allegiant is doing the seasonal MSP route, yes? Any hopes that they might expand service out of RIC to any other destinations?

6.) What are the chances Frontier could show up with a new route or two that none of the other carriers currently fly out of Richmond?

We've gotta crack through the 5 million barrier and get out of the "small airport" and into the "midsize airport" category. We're going to get crazy close this year, even if we fall short, we're going to be on the doorstep of it. Getting more air service, flight frequencies, etc., will no question put us over the top. Plus - more/better air service makes RVA a more attractive target for businesses looking to relo or open an HQ2 or an ops center or a regional office. It's a chicken and egg thing - the bigger the RVA market, the more demand there is for better air service. And the better air service, the more quickly and more robustly the RVA market will grow with the airport being a big asset to businesses.

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24 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Spirit will have how many routes out of RIC? Three? (LAS, TPA and Ft. Myers)?

They'll have five routes out of here now: LAS, TPA, RSW, MCO, & FLL. The big "connection" destination is Las Vegas since Spirit serves a decent amount of west coast destinations. The Florida routes, connection wise, are a big connector for Caribbean destinations, so I can see a lot more people taking Spirit with a connecting in TPA or RSW to a Caribbean destination or Mexico.

24 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

Speaking of landing: Allegiant is doing the seasonal MSP route, yes? Any hopes that they might expand service out of RIC to any other destinations?

Sun Country is doing the MSP route competing with Delta. To be honest I can't really see them expanding elsewhere out of here besides that route, since that is their biggest hub.

24 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

What are the chances Frontier could show up with a new route or two that none of the other carriers currently fly out of Richmond?

Best route bets with Frontier would be MCO or DEN, both already have service by multiple airlines out of here. Not saying they will never come here, but for the time being, probably unlikely.

Edited by Niccckk
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4 hours ago, Niccckk said:

They'll have five routes out of here now: LAS, TPA, RSW, MCO, & FLL. The big "connection" destination is Las Vegas since Spirit serves a decent amount of west coast destinations. The Florida routes, connection wise, are a big connector for Caribbean destinations, so I can see a lot more people taking Spirit with a connecting in TPA or RSW to a Caribbean destination or Mexico.

Sun Country is doing the MSP route competing with Delta. To be honest I can't really see them expanding elsewhere out of here besides that route, since that is their biggest hub.

Best route bets with Frontier would be MCO or DEN, both already have service by multiple airlines out of here. Not saying they will never come here, but for the time being, probably unlikely.

Ahhh - Sun Country. Right. Loved how they inaugurated service with those cute cupcakes!  Looked up their city-to-city list - wow - looks like almost EVERYTHING goes out of MSP.  Man...

Also looked at Frontier's service map - looks like there's quite a bit of activity out of Cincinnati - perhaps that would be an opportunity instead of Denver or Orlando? Would Phoenix or Miami be too much of a stretch?

Some of these airlines also do a lot of Mexico and Caribbean destinations, no? When the international gate reopens, I wonder who might have the best opportunity to pick up service there? I'm still hoping and praying that Air Canada will come with a direct flight to Toronto.

 

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Love the media coverage on this!  50% off base fares on every flight out of RIC is a stunning deal!!  Book your flights today - expires after tomorrow 7 Sep.   Who is taking advantage of this deal?

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/richmond/planning-a-trip-book-now-and-get-50-off-base-fares-for-all-breeze-flights-out-of-richmond/

Edited by eandslee
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19 minutes ago, eandslee said:

Love the media coverage on this!  50% off base fares on every flight out of RIC is a stunning deal!!  Book your flights today - expires after tomorrow 7 Sep.   Who is taking advantage of this deal?

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/richmond/planning-a-trip-book-now-and-get-50-off-base-fares-for-all-breeze-flights-out-of-richmond/

THIS is EXACTLY the kind of pub we need to drive up numbers!! FAN-FREAKIN'-TASTIC!!

Now - a question: the report says that Breeze serves nine destinations non-stop out of RIC - I thought it was more than that - like 11 or 12 or something? Only slightly behind the focus cities. Maybe I'm dreaming that?

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2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

THIS is EXACTLY the kind of pub we need to drive up numbers!! FAN-FREAKIN'-TASTIC!!

Now - a question: the report says that Breeze serves nine destinations non-stop out of RIC - I thought it was more than that - like 11 or 12 or something? Only slightly behind the focus cities. Maybe I'm dreaming that?

Well, Breeze is also counting Provo, UT as a 10th destination currently offered (it’s a Breeze-Thru route through SFO).  Looks like seasonal routes (such as routes to Cincinnati, OH) have ended.

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