Richmond International Airport

[ancientcarpenter]

21 hours ago, eandslee said:

Love the media coverage on this!  50% off base fares on every flight out of RIC is a stunning deal!!  Book your flights today - expires after tomorrow 7 Sep.   Who is taking advantage of this deal?

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/richmond/planning-a-trip-book-now-and-get-50-off-base-fares-for-all-breeze-flights-out-of-richmond/

50% off Breeze flights? Pshh, I don't really need to save $20.

All jokes aside, great deal. Lucky us to have RVA airport and Breeze.

[I miss RVA]

19 hours ago, eandslee said:

Well, Breeze is also counting Provo, UT as a 10th destination currently offered (it’s a Breeze-Thru route through SFO).  Looks like seasonal routes (such as routes to Cincinnati, OH) have ended.

A follow-up:  I wonder if there's enough demand for Breeze to move the Cincinnati route off the seasonal roster and make it permanent? As we've been discussing in the last couple of weeks, there are SO many destinations that could be added to RIC's roster of direct-flight service, particularly by Spirit and Southwest. Would love it if Breeze could keep the Queen City on as a full-time destination - even if it's only 2 or 3 times per week, just to keep that connection there.

Obviously, 2022 and even more so, 2023 saw exceptional growth in RIC's roster of direct destinations - and the airport continues to set monthly passenger volume records, exceeding last year's figures by close to 20%. If we continue at this pace, we'll get close to 5 million - a figure I feel certain that if we don't break it this  year, we WILL break it next year. 

THAT SAID: asking our airport gurus (and yes, @blopp1234, @Niccckkand @eandsleethat means YOU!!) - do you think 2024 will see as much growth in terms of 1.) new routes/direct destinations, 2.) flight frequencies and 3.) passenger volume? We know that the new leadership at the airport commission is pedal-to-the-metal to get more and more AND MORE service - and they have been doing yeoman's work just in the last couple of years alone. Is it realistic to expect that 2024 will see continued growth along the lines of 2022 and 2023? (Even if not at the explosive pace of nearly 20% growth...)

I was reading an article a few days ago about how Nashville's airport more than doubled its passenger volume in less than a decade - going from something like 8 million in 2010 to 18 million just before the pandemic hit. Does RIC (and for that matter, the RVA market) have what it takes to do something similar - that is to say - go from 4 million to perhaps 10 million in the span of a decade? What would it take for RIC to pull off something like this? And yes, I realize that Nashville doesn't have the constraints - as in competition from three other significant airports within 100 miles that RIC has - and that it would be a HUGE mountain for RIC to climb to add 6 million passengers in 10 years - but could we pull it off?  And again, what would it take to make it happen, particularly given the constraints RIC has with all the regional competition?

Edited September 7, 2023 by I miss RVA

[wrldcoupe4]

Nashville exploded during that time frame. Its MSA added about 400,000 residents during that decade. It also is a major tourist destination.

[I miss RVA]

26 minutes ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Nashville exploded during that time frame. Its MSA added about 400,000 residents during that decade. It also is a major tourist destination.

The tourist destination component with Music City, etc., is huge, no question. Metropolitan Nashville added 287,000 residents between 2010 and 2020.

Edited September 7, 2023 by I miss RVA

[blopp1234]

21 minutes ago, I miss RVA said:

A follow-up:  I wonder if there's enough demand for Breeze to move the Cincinnati route off the seasonal roster and make it permanent? As we've been discussing in the last couple of weeks, there are SO many destinations that could be added to RIC's roster of direct-flight service, particularly by Spirit and Southwest. Would love it if Breeze could keep the Queen City on as a full-time destination - even if it's only 2 or 3 times per week, just to keep that connection there.

Obviously, 2022 and even more so, 2023 saw exceptional growth in RIC's roster of direct destinations - and the airport continues to set monthly passenger volume records, exceeding last year's figures by close to 20%. If we continue at this pace, we'll get close to 5 million - a figure I feel certain that if we don't break it this  year, we WILL break it next year. 

THAT SAID: asking our airport gurus (and yes, @blopp1234, @Niccckkand @eandsleethat means YOU!!) - do you think 2024 will see as much growth in terms of 1.) new routes/direct destinations, 2.) flight frequencies and 3.) passenger volume? We know that the new leadership at the airport commission is pedal-to-the-metal to get more and more AND MORE service - and they have been doing yeoman's work just in the last couple of years alone. Is it realistic to expect that 2024 will see continued growth along the lines of 2022 and 2023? (Even if not at the explosive pace of nearly 20% growth...)

I was reading an article a few days ago about how Nashville's airport more than doubled its passenger volume in less than a decade - going from something like 8 million in 2010 to 18 million just before the pandemic hit. Does RIC (and for that matter, the RVA market) have what it takes to do something similar - that is to say - go from 4 million to perhaps 10 million in the span of a decade? What would it take for RIC to pull off something like this? And yes, I realize that Nashville doesn't have the constraints - as in competition from three other significant airports within 100 miles that RIC has - and that it would be a HUGE mountain for RIC to climb to add 6 million passengers in 10 years - but could we pull it off?  And again, what would it take to make it happen, particularly given the constraints RIC has with all the regional competition?

1. As of right now I don’t think there is enough demand for year round service. While RIC used to have multiple daily flights to Cincinnati, that was primarily due to CVG being a hub for Delta, which it no longer is, taking away all the people that took those flights to connect through Cincinnati. As RIC keeps growing, maybe we could see year round service within the next 15 years, but I don’t see anything year round in the near future. Now I do think Breeze could renew this service next summer as planes seemed to average over 2/3 full.

 

2. As far as new routes in 2024, my guesses would be they would come from Breeze, Southwest and Spirit. From Breeze, I could see returning the seasonal routes for next summer, as well as maybe adding Portland, Maine and Columbus, Ohio at 2x per week seasonally for next summer, however it’s tough to tell because Breeze could add cities that aren’t currently on their route map by next summer. For Southwest, I would think a 1x daily flight to Nashville and Orlando could happen if southwest has their pilot shortage figured out. Long shots from southwest would be Dallas Love, Houston Hobby, Las Vegas, St Louis and Tampa. As far as Spirit, I could see them adding Cancun seasonally, however, I think their optimism on adding new routes could be affected by whether their proposed merger with JetBlue goes through.

 

I do think increasing frequencies of routes and upguaging flights is more probable than some of the routes listed above. I would love to see American increase DFW to 4x per day and Miami to 2x per day. Delta I could see adding a second daily MSP flight next summer, however that’s probably all we will get from them. I’d love for United to completely upguage all Denver flights from the A319 to the A320, add a second daily Houston flight, upguage Chicago to fully mainline aircraft and upguage Newark to using E175s instead of smaller regional jets. I don’t see any changes from JetBlue as they try to figure out their merger with Spirit and Allegiant is to unpredictable to know what they could or couldn’t add. As much as I’d love them to come to RIC, I don’t see Alaska entering RIC within the next 2 years unless they get an incentive package tbh.

 

I do think passenger numbers will continue to climb at RIC and if we don’t break 5 million passengers this year, it will definitely happen next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if at this rate we hit 6 million by 2030. These passenger numbers will continue increasing as the RVA metro continues to grow. My best guess (and again this is speculative) is that we will hear news of concourse B being expanded and the security checkpoint consolidation within the next few years.

 

3. As far as RIC hitting 10 million passengers within the next 10 years, I don’t see it happening unless Richmond becomes the fastest growing metro area in the country. I think hitting  7 million by 2033 is a more attainable goal, especially if the metro area keeps growing like it is. 

[I miss RVA]

19 minutes ago, blopp1234 said:

1. As of right now I don’t think there is enough demand for year round service. While RIC used to have multiple daily flights to Cincinnati, that was primarily due to CVG being a hub for Delta, which it no longer is, taking away all the people that took those flights to connect through Cincinnati. As RIC keeps growing, maybe we could see year round service within the next 15 years, but I don’t see anything year round in the near future. Now I do think Breeze could renew this service next summer as planes seemed to average over 2/3 full.

 

2. As far as new routes in 2024, my guesses would be they would come from Breeze, Southwest and Spirit. From Breeze, I could see returning the seasonal routes for next summer, as well as maybe adding Portland, Maine and Columbus, Ohio at 2x per week seasonally for next summer, however it’s tough to tell because Breeze could add cities that aren’t currently on their route map by next summer. For Southwest, I would think a 1x daily flight to Nashville and Orlando could happen if southwest has their pilot shortage figured out. Long shots from southwest would be Dallas Love, Houston Hobby, Las Vegas, St Louis and Tampa. As far as Spirit, I could see them adding Cancun seasonally, however, I think their optimism on adding new routes could be affected by whether their proposed merger with JetBlue goes through.

 

I do think increasing frequencies of routes and upguaging flights is more probable than some of the routes listed above. I would love to see American increase DFW to 4x per day and Miami to 2x per day. Delta I could see adding a second daily MSP flight next summer, however that’s probably all we will get from them. I’d love for United to completely upguage all Denver flights from the A319 to the A320, add a second daily Houston flight, upguage Chicago to fully mainline aircraft and upguage Newark to using E175s instead of smaller regional jets. I don’t see any changes from JetBlue as they try to figure out their merger with Spirit and Allegiant is to unpredictable to know what they could or couldn’t add. As much as I’d love them to come to RIC, I don’t see Alaska entering RIC within the next 2 years unless they get an incentive package tbh.

 

I do think passenger numbers will continue to climb at RIC and if we don’t break 5 million passengers this year, it will definitely happen next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if at this rate we hit 6 million by 2030. These passenger numbers will continue increasing as the RVA metro continues to grow. My best guess (and again this is speculative) is that we will hear news of concourse B being expanded and the security checkpoint consolidation within the next few years.

 

3. As far as RIC hitting 10 million passengers within the next 10 years, I don’t see it happening unless Richmond becomes the fastest growing metro area in the country. I think hitting  7 million by 2033 is a more attainable goal, especially if the metro area keeps growing like it is. 

Thanks, @blopp1234-- really good and insightful analysis. Sparks a few follow ups:

By the time all is said and done for 2023 - RIC likely will have added between 800K to 900K passengers this year - and 700K above our previous annual record four years ago. Do I take it that you expect the amount of growth at RIC to slow SO dramatically that if we hit 5 million either this year or next, that we couldn't hit 6 million by, say, 2026, and 7 million by 2028 or 2029? After all, we didn't expect 2022 and 2023 see SUCH a dramatic increase in destinations, flight frequencies and passenger volume, especially coming out of the pandemic. What's stopping us from maintaining -- minimally -- double-digit growth in 2024, 2025 and beyond?

Definitely agreed that an announcement about Concourse B expansion might very well be in the offing in the next couple of years. The master plan was forecasting at least working toward expanding both concourses by 2023. At the rate we're going - what's the chance that at least Concourse B might be expanded with the additional gates fully operational by 2030?

Agreed - upgrading to larger aircraft on specific routes - and of course, boosting flight frequencies, will go a long way toward many of these goals. Hoping and praying we see plenty of both.

Alaska Air - the incentive package would have to come from RIC? Who provides the incentive? If somehow the airport pulled off getting them, what's the over/under that, say, an RIC-SEA route would be successful?

Maybe I'm being too Pollyannish, but I can't help but think that we received a TON of positive surprises in both 2022 and 2023 - and that 2024 could very well hold just as much good news, and that RIC's dramatic and quite explosive volume growth HAS to be catching more than one eye in the airline industry.

[Niccckk]

On 9/7/2023 at 11:32 AM, blopp1234 said:

I do think increasing frequencies of routes and upguaging flights is more probable than some of the routes listed above. I would love to see American increase DFW to 4x per day and Miami to 2x per day. Delta I could see adding a second daily MSP flight next summer, however that’s probably all we will get from them. I’d love for United to completely upguage all Denver flights from the A319 to the A320, add a second daily Houston flight, upguage Chicago to fully mainline aircraft and upguage Newark to using E175s instead of smaller regional jets. I don’t see any changes from JetBlue as they try to figure out their merger with Spirit and Allegiant is to unpredictable to know what they could or couldn’t add. As much as I’d love them to come to RIC, I don’t see Alaska entering RIC within the next 2 years unless they get an incentive package tbh.

^^^ This is huge and I agree. As much as I love having new destinations, it will be really nice to see increased frequencies and upgraded aircraft on the routes you mentioned (especially the United ones).

As much as I love Delta's dominance on ATL, I think with the amount of flights they have there (what, are we at 6-7x daily?), I think that there has to be Delta customers that connect there to other of their hub cities like Orlando, Salt Lake, etc, and I think they could be successful competing with the likes of jetBlue & Spirit on the MCO route.
I am very optimistic next year for "international" flights, assuming the customs facility is done. Flights to Cancun, like mentioned above, are definitely a possibility with Spirit or jetBlue (or any other budget carrier), and it would be nice to see Air Canada come back and give us Toronto again (even if it's just Air Canada express). But honestly we just gotta wait and see 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, Niccckk said:

^^^ This is huge and I agree. As much as I love having new destinations, it will be really nice to see increased frequencies and upgraded aircraft on the routes you mentioned (especially the United ones).

As much as I love Delta's dominance on ATL, I think with the amount of flights they have there (what, are we at 6-7x daily?), I think that there has to be Delta customers that connect there to other of their hub cities like Orlando, Salt Lake, etc, and I think they could be successful competing with the likes of jetBlue & Spirit on the MCO route.
I am very optimistic next year for "international" flights, assuming the customs facility is done. Flights to Cancun, like mentioned above, are definitely a possibility with Spirit or jetBlue (or any other budget carrier), and it would be nice to see Air Canada come back and give us Toronto again (even if it's just Air Canada express). But honestly we just gotta wait and see 

How close is the airport to opening the customs facility?  I keep thinking I remember that it was originally scheduled to be ready this past summer. Either way - I'm also hoping that Air Canada rolls in with Toronto service. If they do, what's realistic in terms of amount of service? Hopefully more than just once or twice per week. It should be interesting to see what the budget carriers do regarding international flights to Mexico or the Caribbean. 

Also - very much hoping the carriers boost the size of aircraft serving RIC. Not like I'm expecting something big like an A380 to show up - but it would be nice if all carriers would flying "full-size" aircraft and not regional jets.

Indeed, more flights, bigger aircraft, new service, all should help keep RIC's numbers on a solidly upward trajectory.

QUESTION: While it's probably unrealistic to expect that 2024 will see the same LEVEL of year-over-year increase over this year as 2023 has to this point over 2022 (meaning 19% and 20% Y-over-Y) given that we were still recovering volume post-pandemic. However, I'm pretty convinced that the explosive route/destination growth the airport enjoyed in 2022 and 2023 (due in no small part because of Breeze) really has been driving the record-breaking numbers. What's the most realistic expectation in terms of a percentage increase in 2024 over this year? Is another double-digit growth year realistic?

[Niccckk]

I noticed last night when I was picking up family from the airport, they were flying Southwest, and the plane parked at A5... in the A concourse? There was already another Southwest plane at B9 (which is their main gate), but I thought Southwest had two gates to themselves in the B concourse? It was odd seeing a Southwest plane in the A concourse. 

Is there any spreadsheet or something where we can see what gates are allocated to what airlines? Would be very interesting!

[eandslee]

6 hours ago, Niccckk said:

I noticed last night when I was picking up family from the airport, they were flying Southwest, and the plane parked at A5... in the A concourse? There was already another Southwest plane at B9 (which is their main gate), but I thought Southwest had two gates to themselves in the B concourse? It was odd seeing a Southwest plane in the A concourse. 

Is there any spreadsheet or something where we can see what gates are allocated to what airlines? Would be very interesting!

Probably just overflow space in Concourse A. With Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver as destinations, there might have been a time when both Southwest Concourse B gates were being used at the time. Just a guess.  

[Niccckk]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Probably just overflow space in Concourse A. With Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver as destinations, there might have been a time when both Southwest Concourse B gates were being used at the time. Just a guess.  

Yeah, that is probably what it is.. I'm just curious to what happened to Southwest's other gate in Concourse B? Perhaps when they dropped Tampa & Orlando they had to drop a gate as well? Because I know for sure they used to have two gates.

[Merrittk92]

So August’s numbers should be released tomorrow. Anyone care to take a guess what they are? 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Merrittk92

[eandslee]

28 minutes ago, Merrittk92 said:

So August’s numbers should be released tomorrow. Anyone care to take a guess what they are? 

Hopefully, they show more than 448.6K which is what ORF released for their August numbers. My fingers are crossed. 

[eandslee]

I know many of you are waiting to see the August Statistics for RIC that are supposed to be released today.  I messaged the airport after I didn’t see a new stat sheet for August and it appears that there is a web issue preventing the upload of the stat sheet for August right now. However, I did get a ballpark figure of “more than 420,000” passengers for August. While decent, ORF had a hair north of 446,000.  I gotta say I’m a bit heartbroken over that figure. 
 

@flack4ric says that ORF’s passenger numbers will likely fall after the summer beach traffic dies down.  I’m hoping he’s right. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by eandslee

[eandslee]

The stat sheet was finally able to be uploaded onto the website. Here it is:

 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

The stat sheet was finally able to be uploaded onto the website. Here it is:

 

Unfortunately, we've slipped slightly and are off the 5 million passenger volume pace for 2023 but we'll get close. We should reach roughly 4.9 million for the year with a strong finish which sets us up to break 5 million in 2024.

Without seeing ORF's YTD totals, and going on what I remember having seen prior to the summer travel season, I believe RIC is still in the lead for 2023. For June-July-August, RIC finished a total of about 53K behind ORF for the three-month period. Heading into the summer season, RIC had a lead (if I remember correctly) of more than 100K built up over Q1 and Q2. We'll need to finish strong to maintain the lead - and I'm sure it will be something akin to a "photo-finish" with one airport edging out the other "by a nose" so to speak. Perhaps this is where Richmond's edge as a business destination will ultimately top Norfolk's clear edge in leisure destination.

Edited September 26, 2023 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

Found this on one of our own’s X feed.  An exciting development!  Anyone up for a trip to Seattle?  I flew through Seattle just last week - beautiful area of the country!  I’ll post a closer screenshot of the table contents too:

 

[wrldcoupe4]

That’s great news!

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Found this on one of our own’s X feed.  An exciting development!  Anyone up for a trip to Seattle?  I flew through Seattle just last week - beautiful area of the country!  I’ll post a closer screenshot of the table contents too:

 

The earthquake you just felt was my 276-lb tuchus falling out of my chair.

Oh... My... God... 

So we got the grant to get us some baked Alaska. WOW!

Okay - with the grant money in place, what are the next steps needed to make this come to pass? It's right here in the project description that Alaska Airlines provided a letter in support of the SEA-RIC route. What all needs to happen now?

Lordy - this is HUGE, fellas. HUGE!  I can't help but believe that if this route comes to pass in 2024, this plus whatever else new might be on the horizon for us should get us over the 5 million barrier next year. Finally! Man - this all needs... NEEDS... to happen.

Edited September 29, 2023 by I miss RVA

[eandslee]

1 hour ago, I miss RVA said:

The earthquake you just felt was my 276-lb tuchus falling out of my chair.

Oh... My... God... 

So we got the grant to get us some baked Alaska. WOW!

Okay - with the grant money in place, what are the next steps needed to make this come to pass? It's right here in the project description that Alaska Airlines provided a letter in support of the SEA-RIC route. What all needs to happen now?

Lordy - this is HUGE, fellas. HUGE!  I can't help but believe that if this route comes to pass in 2024, this plus whatever else new might be on the horizon for us should get us over the 5 million barrier next year. Finally! Man - this all needs... NEEDS... to happen.

I’m assuming that all that has to happen is that Alaska Airlines needs to take $1M “bait,” sign the agreement paperwork, make sure they have the resources (aircraft, pilots, gate space at RIC and SEA, etc.) for the route that it meets the route frequency required (daily? 4x weekly?), and then ensure they can build the route (with associated frequency) into their schedule.  Seems over simplified…and again, I’m just guessing based on what I do know (which is virtually nothing LOL!).  The letter of support from the airline seems like it should be a quick-starter, but again, just assuming - it could mean nothing at all.  
 

Perhaps someone else with the requisite knowledge can enlighten us. @flack4ric?  Anyone else in the know?

Edited September 29, 2023 by eandslee

[eandslee]

Here is a horribly written RTD article on RIC winning the $1M SCASD grant for nonstop flights between RIC and SEA.  “Los Vegas?”  Really?  And the stats the RTD quoted were not even our best monthly stats this year!  Geez… the article is quite embarrassing actually, but here it is in all its inaccurate “glory:”

https://richmond.com/news/local/business/richmond-airport-nonstop-seattle-west-coast-alaska/article_fab64f16-620f-11ee-aa19-9f56e5e9f500.html?utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1Xtjo8OJzd0H85LKh69RxnBeEhe10P4wkLIuZ2c6GDxyNuMZTIuntKB9o_aem_AZN6tVf2eKDW18eIl_OABMbC8aj_9u6NxYolRmdce40bHoepm0ucxYcqRkAsWcSFeC4&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

Edited October 3, 2023 by eandslee

[Niccckk]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Here is a horribly written RTD article on RIC winning the $1M SCASD grant for nonstop flights between RIC and SEA.  “Los Vegas?”  Really?  And the stats the RTD quoted were not even our best monthly stats this year!  Geez… the article is quite embarrassing actually, but here it is in all its inaccurate “glory:”

https://richmond.com/news/local/business/richmond-airport-nonstop-seattle-west-coast-alaska/article_fab64f16-620f-11ee-aa19-9f56e5e9f500.html?utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1Xtjo8OJzd0H85LKh69RxnBeEhe10P4wkLIuZ2c6GDxyNuMZTIuntKB9o_aem_AZN6tVf2eKDW18eIl_OABMbC8aj_9u6NxYolRmdce40bHoepm0ucxYcqRkAsWcSFeC4&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

Haha! I saw a similar article too, also had some mistakes... "50k passengers daily?!?!?"

https://mcclellan.house.gov/media/press-releases/mcclellan-announces-usdot-grant-funding-richmond-international-airport

Edited October 3, 2023 by Niccckk

[eandslee]

39 minutes ago, Niccckk said:

Haha! I saw a similar article too, also had some mistakes... "50k passengers daily?!?!?"

https://mcclellan.house.gov/media/press-releases/mcclellan-announces-usdot-grant-funding-richmond-international-airport

Yeah, I wish RIC served 50,000 passengers a day!  Ha, more like 12 - 13K a day.  Why can’t journalist get the facts straight?  It’s very frustrating!

[I miss RVA]

3 hours ago, eandslee said:

Here is a horribly written RTD article on RIC winning the $1M SCASD grant for nonstop flights between RIC and SEA.  “Los Vegas?”  Really?  And the stats the RTD quoted were not even our best monthly stats this year!  Geez… the article is quite embarrassing actually, but here it is in all its inaccurate “glory:”

https://richmond.com/news/local/business/richmond-airport-nonstop-seattle-west-coast-alaska/article_fab64f16-620f-11ee-aa19-9f56e5e9f500.html?utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1Xtjo8OJzd0H85LKh69RxnBeEhe10P4wkLIuZ2c6GDxyNuMZTIuntKB9o_aem_AZN6tVf2eKDW18eIl_OABMbC8aj_9u6NxYolRmdce40bHoepm0ucxYcqRkAsWcSFeC4&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

Los Vegas... is that like Las Angeles? 

[I miss RVA]

1 hour ago, eandslee said:

Yeah, I wish RIC served 50,000 passengers a day!  Ha, more like 12 - 13K a day.  Why can’t journalist get the facts straight?  It’s very frustrating!

50K passengers a day would give RIC 1.5M per MONTH - which would put us at 18M annually - which is just a little less than BNA (20M annually). Wow... wouldn't it be nice!