Who is going to buy all the Condos, (Part II)

[Blue_Devil]

48 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Charlotte is extremely gun shy after the spectacular failure of 3 condo towers prior to 2007.  That includes the Vue which converted to apartments midway through the sales process leaving a couple of people still owning units there and the rest is a apartment tower.  the unbelievable 50 story condo tower proposed at Epicenter where hundreds of people lost thousands of dollars in deposits   3rd tower problem was Pete Verna's condo tower where the Skye was and many people lost money there too.  Ultimately that is the only one ever completed to some condos and the hotel.    So only a few boutique small mid rise condos buildings have been built in Myers Park, Eastover and in the Lake Norman area.    I agree there is a market for a small number and I think our best bet is a hotel like a W with a few W Residences condos on the top floors.  

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/epicentre-condo-developer-files-for-bankruptcy/275-374986845

https://www.condo.com/building/The-Vue-Charlotte-NC-28202-92925132  old webpage for the Vue condos for sale

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/condo-developer-says-hes-bankrupt/275-374954427

so pin this post this why this market is  very uneasy with big condo towers taking deposits for buildings never built or never sold as condos. 

 

another way to get some condos is convert some or part of the apartment towers uptown into condos and slowly convert an apartment tower to condos.  

Meanwhile in Durham high rise 27 story condo and apartment tower rises right now.  

They need to di more Durham mixed use. 20-30 condos, and 200 apartments in a tower, and a office or hotel component. We need more ownership 

[SydneyCarton]

I had Durham in mind.  It’s a fraction of the size of Charlotte, and yet, they build lots of condos there that are very successful.  I think that Atlanta is building high rise condos too.

[KJHburg]

1 hour ago, Blue_Devil said:

They need to di more Durham mixed use. 20-30 condos, and 200 apartments in a tower, and a office or hotel component. We need more ownership 

fully agree I wish someone would do a mixed condo apartment tower like in Durham.  Even a condo hotel type tower like in Nashville they have the Four Seasons Hotel and Residences.  I prefer all to own eventually from the lowest price points to highest as real estate is one of the surest paths to wealth over time in this country.  That is why land trusts are good ideas and we have one in Charlotte.  https://www.westsideclt.org/

[go_vertical]

I was really wanting One Charlotte to actually work since that was a beautiful and sleek tower, but that one was doomed from the start with its outrageously exorbitant prices.

[videtur quam contuor]

The MLS has a public site which many of you know. 

https://www.carolinahome.com/CRRA.Home/search

Go to map search and use filters for the type of home, price and so on. I used condominium first then later townhome.  The number available in the 400k$-800k$ is disappointing. Very few people are interested in a home anywhere inside 485 so limiting the choice by location makes the options even smaller. Unclear how many of those identified are under contract or otherwise unavailable. I live in a condo community and in the past 14 months three have sold and all to the first person and within 24 hours. If anyone here is in the condo market actively today I am interested in your experience.

[KJHburg]

Condo news!  No photos but I drove by this site the other day and it is under construction.  An actual condo building of moderate priced condos in the University area.  

https://www.prosperitycharlotte.com/

[KJHburg]

Whose going to rent all these apartments edition:

Charlotte  is #11 highest nationwide in apartments underway.  However this will start slowing next year as larger tower apartment projects get delayed due to costs and interest rates.  

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/apartment-building-construction-record-high

[Crucial_Infra]

11 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Whose going to rent all these apartments edition:

Charlotte  is #11 highest nationwide in apartments underway.  However this will start slowing next year as larger tower apartment projects get delayed due to costs and interest rates.  

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/apartment-building-construction-record-high

My goodness, those Austin numbers are off the charts per capita. Also, Raleigh-Cary MSA crushing it as well as it’s just 1.4 million.  After Austin and Raleigh, Charlotte and Nashville are probably next in per capita growth. Overall, great numbers for North Carolina. 

Edited September 11, 2023 by Crucial_Infra

[KJHburg]

Actual condo building being built along I-485 in the university area.   You can walk to various stores including a newer Publix.  from $300K. 

Prosperity | Luxury Condominiums in Charlotte, NC (prosperitycharlotte.com)

 

[KJHburg]

who is going to rent  all these apartments edition:

Charlotte as of right now is holding up better than its peer cities in vacancy and rental rates.  However we have proportional by a lot the most apartments under construction if you look at our market size.  Charlotte's rental rate will soften even more and vacancy will increase.   All markets are seeing asking rents decrease! 

I looked at Atlanta, Nashville and Raleigh Cary metro (only) and Charlotte.   This is all metro figures of course.  Notice NC markets have the lowest asking rents in this comparison.  Check out the report to sell the major metros.  

Absorption of New Apartments                                  

Q2 2023  Q3 2023                                                       

2295       2198     Charlotte

2413       2278   Nashville 

1374    1528   Raleigh

1811      2830  Atlanta 

Vacancy Rates   Q2 and Q3 2023

9.9       9.9       Charlotte

10,6    11.5   Nashville

9.6   10.4   Raleigh

9.9    11.0   Atlanta 

Asking Rents Q2 and Q3 2023  in $

1599   1566 Charlotte

1669  1639  Nashville

1583  1551  Raleigh

1653   1618  Atlanta 

Total inventory in units per market

203,593  Charlotte

151,815 Nashville

115,782  Raleigh

478,174  Atlanta 

Under construction units as of 3Q 2023

30,937   Charlotte

19,949  Nashville

14,900 Raleigh

32,569  Atlanta

U.S. Multifamily MarketBeat | United States | Cushman & Wakefield (cushmanwakefield.com)   full report

conclusion  vacancies will continue to rise in all 4 cities and rents will fall in all above.   Construction will slow in all markets from the last few years.  

 

 

[Hushpuppy321]

That’s a lot of units under construction in Charlotte and Raleigh proper.  What kind of Yearly Job Growth most you have to sustain that?  Doesn’t the Triangle have stronger long term Job Growth forecasts than Charlotte 

[KJHburg]

7 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

That’s a lot of units under construction in Charlotte and Raleigh proper.  What kind of Yearly Job Growth most you have to sustain that?  Doesn’t the Triangle have stronger long term Job Growth forecasts than Charlotte 

Raleigh Durham is growing faster than the Charlotte metro area but in saying that their units under construction will be slowing as their vacancy rates are slightly higher than ours and rising still.  

[Hushpuppy321]

12 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Raleigh Durham is growing faster than the Charlotte metro area but in saying that their units under construction will be slowing as their vacancy rates are slightly higher than ours and rising still.  

I can believe that because when I lived there in the Triangle Metro, I believe a much higher share of folks were buying SFH’s and Townhomes, so not as many apartments being leased.  It used to feel like developable land was endless in Johnston and Wake Counties.