2030 Transit Plan

[monsoon]

You know that it is absolutely, 100% impossible to give a precisely accurate price tag on a long-term construction project. ....

[Neo]

Not really and we are not talking about 100%. CATS had to only get it 90% right. I am an engineer and know it can be done as I have been involved on projects that have taken years to finish.

Have those projects been associated with hurricane devestation, unprecendented growth outside of the US which is taking an unheard of amount of resources (i.e. China), etc? Some projects are MUCH easier to manage than others, depending on the industry. In my line of work I deal with a large budget for IT infrastructure for a medium sized corporation, when I start a project I have to give a fairly exact figure of what the end result will end up costing, but in my line of work the variables do not vary as much as in something such as the construction industry.

I will also note that just yesterday I was reading where the Cabarrus County jail has jumped from $57M to $116M in just TWO short years which is more than double. CATS is not alone in this but that of course gives no excuse for those overruns that could have been avoided. Perhaps we would all have a better plan if a private company would come in and run a transportation system, at least then if it didn't meet our expectations we can't say we paid for it and demand more.

[ChiefJoJo]

FWIW, I was in a meeting with FTA staff in reviewing CATS recently and on almost every count, FTA gave them very high marks. Included in those were very positive comments on the 2030 Plan... FTA feels it is well-designed and will serve the citizens of the county very well. One staff person noted that he personally felt that ~8% cost overun on a nearly half billion transit project was understandable given the recent worldwide economic climate.

Also, CATS was up-front on the weakness of the system currently, that it does not address cross-town trips very well, but they noted that with the Eastland, South Park and Rosa Parks TCs, they will be adjusting and adding routes to serve that need.

[Andyc545]

It seems that despite not having anything official in regards to the tax repeal yet, CAT's has been progressive in preparing for the next portions of the line, whichever that may be (NE, N, Streetcar). They have just closed the hiring process of "Open Engineers" for construction and consulting of the future lines. I'm glad to see CATs continuing to be progressive in decision making for the future, wasting no time, not waiting for the votes. Of course if the tax is repealed, then this will all fall apart and people will be loosing their jobs (as far as engineers on the future lines).

[monsoon]

..... Of course if the tax is repealed, then this will all fall apart and people will be loosing their jobs (as far as engineers on the future lines).

[uptownliving]

One more time, please show us where this has been decided by the city.

The repeal of the transit tax simply means the county will not be collecting the money to pay for CATS anymore and that responsibility will fall back onto the heads of the Charlotte city council who may very well decide to continue to pay for the system out of the general funds.

Yes, I would be very interested to see where this has been decided.

[monsoon]

...... If this was to be put solely on the Charlotte Property Tax payer it would require a 40% hike in the tax rate. No City Councilman in their right mind is going to raise taxes 40% in one year so that we can maintain our current transit service levels.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if the 1/2 Cent Sales tax is voted down then CATS will be laying off employees. The question is how many.

[Raintree21]

Of course if the tax is repealed, then this will all fall apart and people will be loosing their jobs (as far as engineers on the future lines).

[monsoon]

I don't think this has been brought up. IF the transit tax is repealed county wide, what are the chances of CATS saying forget about the North Line (for now) and instead concentrating on the NE line, which it seems everyone agrees will have much higher ridership. Add to that the streetcar and the high population and "poorer" areas are all served.

[voyager12]

The most logical extension of service in my opinion is up to UNCC. You are right that internal politics will derail all future plans, pun intended if the tax is voted down. There is a cogent description of the value of light rail in this month's Uptown Magazine. There needs to be further illuminating of the issues instead of scare tactics being used by both sides of the debate.

[Andyc545]

According to the CBJ, one of the responding proposals for Smith at the LMS, I noticed, was to launch trasit service between LMS and the new uptown NASCAR Hall-of-Fame. Specifically, it mentions bus service shuttles initially and then possibility of rail, which I'm assuming is the extention of the NE Line, which we here on UP had speculated on previously.

I also agree, the NE Line to UNCC, etc. makes most sence. Not only for ridership numbers, but for all of the destinations on this line that it would serve- UNCC (college commuters), NoDa, All of the bars between UNCC and uptown (cheap alternative to taxi) (Saying this knowing a transit cooridor shouldn't be computed with ackowledgement of bars and transporting drunk ppl, but does showcase a safety solution), IKEA (i know most would drive, but I feel that may be a destination for a lot to just go look and maybe buy some small accessories), plus would (hopefully) receieve additional funding being a high ridership line and including a stop on a public campus that is state funded. Still love the streetcar concept and think that would benefit well next.

[Spartan]

The most logical extension of service in my opinion is up to UNCC. You are right that internal politics will derail all future plans, pun intended if the tax is voted down. There is a cogent description of the value of light rail in this month's Uptown Magazine. There needs to be further illuminating of the issues instead of scare tactics being used by both sides of the debate.

[Andyc545]

Its logical from the context of what exists today (the South Corridor), but the infrastructure and ROW is already in place for the North line, they just have to build stations and parking, etc. They haven't even decided on the exact alignment on the NE line yet.

[monsoon]

Then when the second wave for the N Line gets built, they will have to add the 2nd track and more improvements, etc. ....

[clt_gator]

^ Does the opposite validate a smarter proposal? Of course not, the anti-transit folks aren't going to change their minds because there is a better plan as they will not have bothered to analyze it or even opened their mind to it. Other than perhaps a small group of 5 - 10 % who are more concerned about making a statement than disputing the need for transit.

[monsoon]

..... I'm sure there are valid reasons to oppose the tax as the model for funding transit, but I don't believe that most "Repeal" folks care about that. It's purely about making a statement against a guy (McCrory) they can't beat at the polls.

[clt_gator]

Well if you agree there are reasons to repeal the tax, then getting even with the people who don't want it for other reasons seems a bit irrelevant to me.

[monsoon]

Well I don't believe it is anti-McCroy at all. Lets keep in mind there has developed a significant resistance to the 2030 plan outside the city where these people could care less about McCroy (if they even know his name) but still have to pay the tax. The entire Iredell county commission walked away from this plan and I doubt it had anything to do with keeping McCroy out of office.

The fact of the matter is the transit tax, as implement and being parceled out, does little to solve any traffic, air pollution, or development issues facing this region even though it is being painted that way. I've laid out the reasons why and if you would like to discuss anything that I have posted please feel free do to so.

[Andyc545]

The fact of the matter is the transit tax, as implement and being parceled out, does little to solve any traffic, air pollution, or development issues facing this region even though it is being painted that way. I've laid out the reasons why and if you would like to discuss anything that I have posted please feel free do to so.

[Charlotte_native]

I received the following email today from the Vote Against Repeal Campaign.

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"25, 2007

As Chairman of the Vote Against Repeal campaign, I feel it is important to set the record straight concerning claims made by our opposition. The Vote Against Repeal campaign has made every effort to run a clean, ethical, and legal campaign. To say otherwise is a personal affront to my integrity which has been proven over six years of dedicated service on Charlotte's City Council.

TRAFFIC CONGESTION

Traffic congestion will most likely never be better than it is today and we have never said differently. Without a viable transit system, which includes buses, light rail, commuter rail, and bus rapid transit, current and future commuters will be relegated to driving their cars. Without transit options, Mecklenburg County's dramatic population growth will result in worsening traffic congestion. This is a fact which has been realized in many other communities. Cities like Houston and Seattle have witnessed the slowing growth in traffic congestion due in part to improved transit investments.

PROPERTY TAXES

The Vote Against Repeal campaign has never said property taxes will be raised in 2007 as claimed by our opposition. We have said that, if over $65 million a year from the transit system budget is eliminated as a result of repeal efforts, funding sources and service level reductions must be identified to support ongoing bus and light rail operations as well as debt service payments. The property tax in each city and town is the only major revenue source available to fund transit programs.

FEDERAL FUNDING

Contrary to recent statements, a relationship clearly exists between federal funding and the sales tax levied in support of transit. Federal funds are matched by local sales tax revenue at a 2:1 ratio for the building of transit capital projects. The sales tax has already been matched by over $200 million in federal funds for bus and light rail improvements since 1998. Without the sales tax, we will not be eligible for future federal transit funds. Repealing the sales tax eliminates the required local matching funds needed to bring millions of federal transit dollars, our tax dollars, back to Mecklenburg County.

AIR QUALITY

Air quality in Mecklenburg County has reached a level that is critically close to missing federal standards. We face a serious risk of losing federal funding for future highway road projects, as Atlanta did in the late 1990's for the very same reason. Mass transit's air quality benefits, acknowledged and approved by federal environmental agencies, are a vital component in the complicated computer modeling program used to determine future air quality.

I hope my comments will help dispel any confusion regarding the intent of the Vote Against Repeal campaign. Consequences exist for every action taken. Repealing the sales tax that supports mass transit will have real and enduring consequences that should not be ignored for political convenience. The voters were correct in their 1998 decision to support transit and I urge you join us in Voting Against Repeal to Keep Mecklenburg Moving.

Pat Mumford

Chairman, Vote Against Repeal Campaign"

[ChiefJoJo]

I have read that Charlotte's new system costs double than what was initially planned. Honestly, the line is planned nicely, but I don't think ridership is really going to be there. They are predicting 9,100 daily for its first year and 18,500 for the second year. I think it may be less than that. Also, having those low ridership numbers won't help Charlotte at all at getting more federal funding for light rail lines. BRT seems like the way to go for those other lines.

[monsoon]

That is what I meant to say. 18,500 in 2025 looks real bad. An underestimate (hopefully) perhaps?

[atlrvr]

I can't remember....does that 18,500 include anticipated new development created by TOD, or did that have to be excluded for the federal modeling purpose? If it was not included, then it would be safe to assume ridership would be much higher (assuming CATS model is accurate) Regardless, almost all cities have exceed ridership projections, (whereas almost all BRT have failed to meet projections) so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that number.

My personal feeling is that ridership will fall short of the 8,000 during the first year of ridership, but will exceed 25,000 by 2025.

[BobbyRobert]

I can't remember....does that 18,500 include anticipated new development created by TOD, or did that have to be excluded for the federal modeling purpose?

[monsoon]

AFIK the FTA does _not_ allow anticipated development to be included in the travel demand models.