CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[Matthew.Brendan]

5 hours ago, Desert Power said:

Something about proposing a station so close to golf courses really irks me.  What a waste of space...

By waste of space I’m sure you mean the golf course...

[Desert Power]

1 hour ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

By waste of space I’m sure you mean the golf course...

Yes

[SgtCampsalot]

8 hours ago, Desert Power said:

Something about proposing a station so close to golf courses really irks me.  What a waste of space...

What are the odds that golf course would be redeveloped... I feel like in Balantyne that would be akin to exhuming a grave yard for a casino.

[go_vertical]

I doubt anything is going to happen with that course until a majority of the surface lots across Johnston are turned into office. 

[kermit]

^ when the revolution comes... golf courses will be the first thing to go...

Somewhat more seriously, Politico has a very good article on Seattle’s embrace of transit and how a true multimodal approach (including streetcars, bikes and removing parking minimums) has allowed them to effectively manage the congestion portion of their massive population growth (its faster than Charlotte).  It is worthy of note that underground LRT routes are responsible for part of the success of transit — higher LRT speeds make bus funnels to outlying LRT stations more attractive to commuters (I am looking at you N Tryon)

Quote

Seattle hasn’t banished cars, nor does it want to. Rather, it is finally achieving a balanced multimodal system, remaking itself from a city built for cars into one built for all the ways people get around. 

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/23/seattle-car-free-transportation-what-works-226935

Seattle certainly has some distinct advantages for this type of mode shift (geographic constraints, greater wealth, a long history of ferry use etc.) one of the recurring threads in the article was that the city had ‘waited too long’ for a transit build out and congestion had reached catastrophic levels. Charlotte needs to be expanding transit yesterday to avoid that same fate.

Edited May 26, 2019 by kermit

[nakers2]

I wanna know who greenlighted this. 

[SgtCampsalot]

5 hours ago, nakers2 said:

I wanna know who greenlighted this. 

I don't think they did that right...

[Matthew.Brendan]

Can’t even use meme’s appropriately. At least they are trying?

 

[SgtCampsalot]

6 hours ago, nakers2 said:

I wanna know who greenlighted this. 

I fixed their meme w a couple alternatives

[kermit]

This may be more appropriate for the learning from other places thread but...

1) Atlanta is about to spend $11 BILLION on widening the north side of 285 (for toll lanes). GDOT tried to make it look like it was actually $4.6 billion by not mentioning federal funds. Imagine what transit $11 billion would purchase: https://threadatl.tumblr.com/post/185208935846/according-to-the-ajc-a-member-of-the-doraville

2) The WSJ discusses the multi-billion cost of rebuilding urban interstates that have reached the end of their 50 year lifespan. The Belk is nearly 33 years old and the Brookshire is almost 40. Its time to be planning for the end of their lifetimes. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-interstate-is-crumbling-try-fixing-the-section-used-by-200-000-vehicles-a-day-11559056024

3) There was a Dutch transit strike today. In response Amsterdam closer their main tunnel to cars and opened it up to bikes only:

 

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by kermit

[davidclt]

On 5/27/2019 at 3:12 PM, nakers2 said:

I wanna know who greenlighted this.

Probably the same team that gives us these gems. How hard is it to say Lynx Blue Line trains are delayed because (Pick one or more: not enough rolling stock, stupid people got their car stuck on tracks, we've mandated safety rules which slow the trains down, there's wildlife on the tracks, the tracks have expanded in the heat slowing down our times north and south of the center city, we don't have enough money to run the system we've built, we just don't care, etc.)? I guess this is why I'm not in social media for a living . . . Really, why can't updates be informative and timely. Mechanical issue isn't informative, it's a smoke screen.

Edited May 29, 2019 by davidclt
Fixed formatting.

[Matthew.Brendan]

I've never used Twitter but I swear to god I might start just to harass CATS.

[kermit]

About that Silver Line tunnel:

Madrid is about to build a regional rail tunnel under their center city. 10.5km for 760 million euro -- $845 million usd for 6.5 miles (roughly the distance from Brier Creek to the airport property). This price includes four stations.

At this per mile price a tunnel from Independence / 277 to Morehead / 77 would cost $260 million -- this is only about 30% more than we spend on at-grade track. There is nothing about Spain that makes it particularly easy to tunnel there, nor are their construction industry wages particularly low. They are just really good at it.

Why aren't we as smart as them?

https://www.metro-report.com/news/suburban-commuter/single-view/view/new-cross-city-line-in-EUR5bn-madrid-suburban-plan.html

 

[CLT>]

37 minutes ago, kermit said:

About that Silver Line tunnel:

 Madrid is about to build a regional rail tunnel under their center city. 10.5km for 760 million euro -- $845 million usd for 6.5 miles (roughly the distance from Brier Creek to the airport property). This price includes four stations.

 At this per mile price a tunnel from Independence / 277 to Morehead / 77 would cost $260 million -- this is only about 30% more than we spend on at-grade track. There is nothing about Spain that makes it particularly easy to tunnel there, nor are their construction industry wages particularly low. They are just really good at it.

 Why aren't we as smart as them?

 https://www.metro-report.com/news/suburban-commuter/single-view/view/new-cross-city-line-in-EUR5bn-madrid-suburban-plan.html

  

We have the highest tunneling costs in the world. If you really want indigestion look at the CPM of the Second Avenue Subway project in NYC, versus longer and much more complicated projects anywhere in the world. It makes you sick.

Sadly a mix of inept contractors, odd regulations, restrictive union contracts rules (in some parts of the US), and utter inability to cost and manage infrastructure projects.

If we figure out how to tunnel we can build 3x as much transportation infrastructure in this country, and no The Boring Company is not the answer, they make tiny tunnels for cars, and so far have only done that on paper.

[nakers2]

50 minutes ago, CLT> said:

We have the highest tunneling costs in the world. If you really want indigestion look at the CPM of the Second Avenue Subway project in NYC, versus longer and much more complicated projects anywhere in the world. It makes you sick.

Sadly a mix of inept contractors, odd regulations, restrictive union contracts rules (in some parts of the US), and utter inability to cost and manage infrastructure projects.

If we figure out how to tunnel we can build 3x as much transportation infrastructure in this country, and no The Boring Company is not the answer, they make tiny tunnels for cars, and so far have only done that on paper.

It's funny you mention that because I saw a video from them on Youtube today, and apparently they HAVE actually built a working prototype. But I agree, not an end all solution. 

[ertley]

59 minutes ago, CLT> said:

If we figure out how to tunnel we can build 3x as much transportation infrastructure in this country...

...and Charlotte shouldn't be making all of its infrastructure plans based on current technology and pricing. There should be long term plans formulated  now that don't simply focus on more light and commuter rail.

The (relatively) short term plan for the Silver Line makes sense because it's practicable, in terms of most of the real estate and roadways where it's planned, and commuter rail is obviously a next step--let's say, mid term--but I think long term planning should start seriously considering an actual underground subway line. Even if it's going to 50 years in the future, the time to start envisioning where such a thing is now; didn't discussion of light rail in Charlotte start 30 years ago? Time flies, CATS!

I think the obvious solution to the challenges Charlotte's (forgive me for stereotyping) pear-shaped , bougie, NIMBY core presents for infrastructure development is tunneling--and it's not like tunneling is some crazy impractical fantasy I've dreamed up. Perhaps a spur to South Park could be built in the next few decades, but I think starting to plan for a tear-shaped line--reminiscent of DC's red line--that travels from uptown and with its vertex at South Park would hopefully eventually address the challenges of getting all of Charlotte relatively good access to mass transit.

My fantasy subway line would stop at Dilworth, Montford (which I still think of as just the Park Road Shopping Center), South Park, Strawberry Hill at Providence/Sardis, Cotswold, Novant Presbyterian/East Elizabeth and "Midtown" (a moniker I hate because I think Atlanta has a lock on it). If you start planning for it, you can make sure ensuing development over the next few decades provides for it--i.e. locations for future stations are set aside, etc.

[Scribe]

3 hours ago, CLT> said:

If we figure out how to tunnel we can build 3x as much transportation infrastructure in this country, and no The Boring Company is not the answer, they make tiny tunnels for cars, and so far have only done that on paper.

This is not popular here because Elon offended many faith militant of the Church of Urbanism... but The Boring Company's stated goal is to drastically lower the cost of boring tunnels.... which is the greatest obstacle to tunneling in US right now.

They have a 1.14 mile test tunnel that they are testing out now   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boring_Test_Tunnel and stuff like

They got a signed contract to build a Las Vegas tunnel -- probably 1.5 to 2 mile double bore tunnel - https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/18252302/boring-company-las-vegas-dig-plans-2021

They are in environmental assessment stage for a 35 mile tunnel between DC and Baltimore. https://www.dcbaltimoreloop.com/ 

2 hours ago, nakers2 said:

It's funny you mention that because I saw a video from them on Youtube today, and apparently they HAVE actually built a working prototype. But I agree, not an end all solution.

If they improve tunneling speed by a factor of 10 and reduce cost by the same wouldn't it be worth having that experiment??

[orulz]

There may be something salvageable from the Boring Company but what they have proposed and built so far is not workable.

-in order to achieve claimed passenger throughput using their 16 person pods, they will need crazy tight headways, like 1 per second. The vehicles are just too small and flat out not attainable at speeds like 127mph.
-allowing single-occupancy cars in the tunnel, which is literally *the core* of the company's vision, wrecks throughput even further.
-they have not demonstrated or even produced renderings of stations or termini that can handle anywhere near those passenger/vehicle numbers

However, the tunnels aren't as small as some have said. They are the same diameter as the London deep tunnel lines. Link the pods together into rubber tired metro trains with open gangways, then you have the beginning of something. Still have to solve the station problem, but it would be really easy to design and build something cheaper and less grandiose than is the common practice in today's US transit industry.

[Matthew.Brendan]

Something salvageable? The Boring Company is literally in its infancy. It's tech that will grow and evolve over the coming decades. You are somehow dismissing it outright as something that has already failed and will never go anywhere? Ok.

[jthomas]

18 minutes ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

Something salvageable? The Boring Company is literally in its infancy. It's tech that will grow and evolve over the coming decades. You are somehow dismissing it outright as something that has already failed and will never go anywhere? Ok.

What tech have they actually developed towards the end of doing tunnels faster and cheaper? Don't get me wrong - I would love for them or somebody to be successful, because the ability to tunnel at a reasonable cost would be transformative in this country. But so far, they have a small diameter tunnel, some fantasy renderings, and a bunch of hot air. If anyone other than Elon Musk were doing this, would anyone be impressed by what they have done? I admit that I am biased because I have a distaste for the guy, but  just because he's had success in the past (in other fields) does not mean that every idea and utterance of his is some brilliant insight that no one else can see. 

[pgsinger]

The Boring Company is simply trying to spur R&D where there has been no R&D in 50+ years and capitalize on it.  It is not primarily a tech a company.  They are using very basic concepts to increase efficiency and reduce costs.  Some of this is no possible due to technology (autonomous vehicles, continuous structural support installation, electric boring machines, etc.).  It is completely un-sexy which is why the name is so perfect.  They have no intention of building a two lane (same direction or two direction) tunnel because of the cost implications.  Think about this small fact that no one seemed to realize until TBC.  The formula for the volume of a cylinder is V=(pie)r(squared)h (I do not know how to get the appropriate symbols in this text box).  A two lane 28 feet wide 100 feet long tunnel has ~61,575 cubic feet of volume.  A one lane 14 feet wide 100 feet long tunnel has ~15,394 cubic feet of volume.  That is 4x the volume, which is likely 3-4x the cost.  So why build one tunnel with 4x the volume when two tunnels totaling half the volume are sufficient? 

It is exceptionally basic ideas like this that The Boring Company is trying to exploit to lower costs of tunneling.  And yes, in typical Musk fashion, their existing goals are probably more aspirational than attainable.  To have 4k cars pass through one tunnel every hour would require more than one car launched per second.  

Edited May 30, 2019 by pgsinger

[Scribe]

2 hours ago, jthomas said:

What tech have they actually developed towards the end of doing tunnels faster and cheaper? Don't get me wrong - I would love for them or somebody to be successful, because the ability to tunnel at a reasonable cost would be transformative in this country.

 

1 hour ago, pgsinger said:

The Boring Company is simply trying to spur R&D where there has been no R&D in 50+ years and capitalize on it. 

It is really no different then what he is doing with SpaceX. He tried to buy a rocket from the Ruskies, they spat in his face (well really in his direction).  But on the flight back he put together a cost of materials and came to a number of how much raw materials goes into a rocket. It was something ridiculously low (compared to the going rate for rockets) so he said, all other cost is in HOW you do it, and there is a lot of room for improvement. (source: Ashlee Vance --  Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future)

Then he announced his "nutty" idea of landing rockets vertically... Ruskies literally laughed it off to the media... they are not laughing now. One of my favorite moments is watching a SpaceX rocket launch at Cape Canaveral and ~8 minutes later land a few miles south of the launch pad.

All of that while offering some of the best launch rates the west has seen ever!

If Boring Company can do half of what SpaceX did for launch cost and re-usablity, I think the venture would be a HUGE positive for all tunnel related industry.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Scribe

[Scribe]

2 hours ago, pgsinger said:

And yes, in typical Musk fashion, their existing goals are probably more aspirational than attainable.

I am curious though, while Musk always creates new aspirational goals for the media to go crazy over, can you point to which goals has he not met from 2008? 2010? 2012? 2014?

yes many of them took longer to achieve, but what timescales are we looking at. We still use 50+ year old boring methodology. If Musk's venture takes 1 year longer to perfect the TBM or even 2 years longer, compared to the 50+ years of doing diddly squat...

Oh and when SpaceX started they started with a Falcon 1 rocket that could only launch 600 kg!

Fast forward to today, on May 23rd, Falcon 9 launched 60 satellites for Starlink at ~16800 kg -- in a single launch (on a booster that was flying its 3rd time/mission)
Falcon Heavy can launch 64,000 kg to orbit.

All that, because they started with Falcon 1 that could only launch 600 kg. (and only succeeded to reach proper orbit on 4th attempt -- that is 3 failures in a row before the successful launch!)

If the Boring Company can get good at 14' diameter tunnels, who is going to stop them from starting on a larger diameter tunnel?

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Scribe

[orulz]

I am curious though, while Musk always creates new aspirational goals for the media to go crazy over, can you point to which goals has he not met from 2008? 2010? 2012? 2014?
yes many of them took longer to achieve, but what timescales are we looking at. We still use 50+ year old boring methodology. If Musk's venture takes 1 year longer to perfect the TBM or even 2 years longer, compared to the 50+ years of doing diddly squat...
Oh and when SpaceX started they started with a Falcon 1 rocket that could only launch 600 kg!
Fast forward to today, on May 23rd, Falcon 9 launched 60 satellites for Starlink at ~16800 kg -- in a single launch (on a booster that was flying its 3rd time/mission)
Falcon Heavy can launch 64,000 kg to orbit.
All that, because they started with Falcon 1 that could only launch 600 kg. (and only succeeded to reach proper orbit on 4th attempt -- that is 3 failures in a row before the successful launch!)
If the Boring Company can get good at 14' diameter tunnels, who is going to stop them from starting on a larger diameter tunnel?
 

14' diameter tunnels would be perfectly adequate for legitimate high capacity transit. Current rolling stock might not fit, and the 8-16 person pods proposed so far aren't big enough, but it is perfectly conceivable to develop larger (articulated/coupled?) vehicles that would fix that problem.

However, the tunnel-ground interface (namely, elevators, stairs, and ramps) is a problem they have not proposed a scalable solution for yet. A single elevator is very expensive to build and yet many are required to meet claimed headways. The renderings of off-line stations they showed for the Chicago airport Express project looked enormous, complicated, and expensive.

The fix for that is obvious, to have on-line stations with platforms like conventional subways. Let people on foot do the vertical circulation. Now, even conventional subway stations cost money, but with less political interference and a proper eye towards cost control when it comes to design and construction, it would not be hard to do it a great deal cheaper than standard US practice these days.

But especially, it is the focus on "car elevator from your garage to the parking lot" nonsense that makes me highly leery of this enterprise. They are trying to solve the problem of traffic without any reduction in car use. That seems to be at the very core of their mission, in fact. They seem to think they can make tunneling so fast and inexpensive that it is essentially "too cheap to meter;" meaning they will not only be able to catch up to and meet all current unmet demand, but also stay ahead of induced demand, while still catering to single-occupancy 5000 pound steel boxes for every traveler.

Pure hogwash.

If they (1) succeed at the technological advances that they have proposed, which I will admit may be possible, and (2) lose the cars, which I do not think is likely under the direction of Elon Musk, then yes, some of the technological advances may be there to *salvage* into something that actually scales.

[Scribe]

14 minutes ago, orulz said:

If they (1) succeed at the technological advances that they have proposed, which I will admit may be possible, and (2) lose the cars, which I do not think is likely under the direction of Elon Musk, then yes, some of the technological advances may be there to *salvage* into something that actually scales.

Again, I think you missed my last sentence of a post above... (included below) if The Boring Company (TBC) succeeds to reduce costs of making tunnels by a factor of 10 (or hopefully more), at that point it does not matter if TBC disappears, as long as the rest of industry can mimic and improve upon the boring speed of TBC. And really will not matter if the TBC approach to the vehicles that go inside turns out to be the thing that was wrong about the design.

2 hours ago, Scribe said:

If Boring Company can do half of what SpaceX did for launch cost and re-usablity, I think the venture would be a HUGE positive for all tunnel related industry.

There is real engineering time being put into this field for the first time in a long time.  I wonder when's the last time this industry has seen this much attention (even if some of it is hype).

So, I am eager to see the first few projects move forward, if only to get enough attention (light) on the subject of tunneling, and some of the drama wrt Elon Musk could possibly shake some of the complacency off the established boring "expert" companies to innovate or at least keep up.