Learning from Other Places

[tozmervo]

1 hour ago, Cadi40 said:

I used to live in Parkland, just north of Miami off the Sawgrass expressway and 441. I speak to many Floridians that decided to move to Charlotte. 99.9% of them I speak to do not regret the decision they made, but what they do tell me is they know Charlotte’s going to sprawl out like Miami did, give it 10-25 years. 

Potentially even worse. At least Miami has geographic limitations to its sprawl. 

[asthasr]

I think Charlotte is already sprawled out like Miami. Fort Mill and Concord can both reasonably called "suburbs" of Charlotte, and are 35 miles apart. Similarly, from Lowell to Monroe is about 37 miles. It's not uniformly distributed within that "box," of course, but we've certainly got our share of sprawl. What I think is more interesting is that Charlotte's inner core is really intensifying. Hopefully that will help slow (or, say it quietly, reverse) the sprawl eventually.

[Dale]

I keep reading about the death of suburbs. I ain’t seeing it.

[Cadi40]

I think Charlotte is reaching its limits of sprawl, It’s either they have no choice but to build up or go to nearby counties. 

[asthasr]

27 minutes ago, Dale said:

I keep reading about the death of suburbs. I ain’t seeing it.

You're right, suburbs are still growing. However, suburbs have a real saturation point that can only be extended by building more highway lanes. I think the appetite for that is diminishing (as we see with our own I-77 debacle) and will reduce the ability to expand along with it. There are also changes in urban planning which will have interesting effects; for example, Minneapolis just banned single-family zoning.

[Third Strike]

The inner suburbs seem to be decaying in most cities, except for the most wealthiest parts, like south Charlotte. Whereas the outer suburbs continue to grow and expand. You can see this in many neighborhoods that are located in east, west, and north Charlotte. 

23 minutes ago, asthasr said:

You're right, suburbs are still growing. However, suburbs have a real saturation point that can only be extended by building more highway lanes. I think the appetite for that is diminishing (as we see with our own I-77 debacle) and will reduce the ability to expand along with it. There are also changes in urban planning which will have interesting effects; for example, Minneapolis just banned single-family zoning.

Does Charlotte have the legal ability to do the same here?

[tozmervo]

4 minutes ago, Third Strike said:

The inner suburbs seem to be decaying in most cities, except for the most wealthiest parts, like south Charlotte. Whereas the outer suburbs continue to grow and expand. You can see this in many neighborhoods that are located in east, west, and north Charlotte. 

Does Charlotte have the legal ability to do the same here?

Only until NCGA bans it's ability to. And then it would obviously only affect the city limits.

[Dale]

Right on the continuing growth of outer suburbs. My former occupation had me searching for new neighborhoods. Increasingly, that had me driving 30, 45 minutes or more. People are congregating farther and farther out and with more and more retail and service to keep them there.

[kermit]

4 hours ago, Dale said:

Well, none of the top-tier US cities are a good place to actually live for the vast majority of the population.

"nobody goes there anymore, its too crowded"

[Dale]

2 minutes ago, kermit said:

"nobody goes there anymore, its too crowded"

Thankfully, when I came to a fork in the road ... I took it.

Landed in still affordable Charlotte.

[kermit]

22 hours ago, Third Strike said:

The inner suburbs seem to be decaying in most cities, except for the most wealthiest parts, like south Charlotte. Whereas the outer suburbs continue to grow and expand. You can see this in many neighborhoods that are located in east, west, and north Charlotte. 

Does Charlotte have the legal ability to do the same here?

Its probably just a definitional issue but the above does not describe my observations.

When I think of inner suburbs I think of areas like Dilworth, Wesley Heights and out three (ish) miles from the center (e.g. Montford). I have found these neighborhoods seeing lots of investment and resurgence in most of the places I visit (and we are seeing this happen locally in places as unlikely as Lockwood and Tryon Hills). While there isn't a ton of population growth in these hoods (duplexes and 4 unit apartment blocks are being replaced w big SFH), incomes and housing prices are rapidly climbing. We have also spilled a good number of bits discussing the emergence of in town retail (e.g. Atherton) as it follows the money.

The places I think of as middle ring suburbs are out 3-6 miles from the city center. These neighborhoods were (mostly) built in the 70s so the housing stock is obsolete (think low-ceilings and one bathroom) and difficult to renovate cost-effectively (e.g. slab construction)  -- this is where I see the most dramatic decay (e.g. the Eastland / Farm Pond / Albemarle).  Given the distance to amenities and crappy transit access I don't see much potential for these neighborhoods to improve in the near term although the Kilborne and Shamrock area suggest that some spots of resurgence are possible in growing cities.

The burbs that are around the beltway of most US cities are generally considered to be the outer burbs from an urban-evolution perspective.  Most of this housing was built around the mid 1980s (although Charlotte is an outlier due to the lateness of 485). Since this housing (and adjacent retail) is now approaching 40 years old it is all beginning to see the effects of age. As entire neighborhoods hit the same point in their maintenance cycles  (new roofs, paint, siding and HVAC are needed) we are beginning to see the modern equivalent of white flight ("affluent evacuation"?) in these areas. Housing values in most of these hoods is generally flat to declining. The decay of these areas has been delayed in Charlotte thanks to our growth but we can see it setting in already in the  University, Reedy Creek and Albemarle rd areas. 

Most urban economists would say that there are two things that will drive the continued decline of outer burbs (in addition to maintenance cycles). The first is the decline of brick and mortar retail -- likely to create large pockets of commercial decay which are likely to trigger decline in surrounding residential areas.  The second force is demographic, as boomers downsize and/or die someone will need to buy those houses. While a significant portion of Millennials will want a big suburban house there will be portions of the generation who continue to prefer urban living or who simply cant afford a house (or its maintenance) or kids or a spouse (thanks student loans). It seems unlikely that there will be enough Millennial buyers to consume all of the suburban SFH in the outer burbs. If there is even a small shortage of buyers prices will decline dramatically -- nobody wants to buy a house in a neighborhood that is loosing value, no matter how cheap it is.

The exurbs (out beyond 12ish miles from downtown) have plenty of new housing, but congestion is killing them. As they get further from job clusters (in terms of travel time) their growth will slow. If the number of jobs in suburban business districts like Ballantyne increases then these exurbs can remain viable, but the recent trend of professional jobs gravitating towards city centers (Honeywell, Lending Tree, Deloitte, Amazon, etc.) while lower-skill jobs (Red Ventures et. al) sprawling outwards will pressure incomes and RE values here. In addition, the exurbs will face the same demographic pressures of the outer burbs.

Sorry this became a rant. I see increasing density on the horizon and I am investing in that. Many others (often the folks who already have significant investments in the burbs) see more sprawl on the horizon. Disagreement is good -- until you start to think about carbon footprints.

Edited December 28, 2018 by kermit

[SgtCampsalot]

33 minutes ago, kermit said:

The second force is demographic, as boomers downsize and die someone will need to buy those houses. While a significant portion of millennials will want a big suburban house there will be huge segments of that generation who will continue to prefer urban living or who cant afford a house or maintenance or kids or a spouse (thanks student loans). It seems unlikely that there will be enough Millennial buyers to consume all of the suburban SFH in the outer burbs (there is a huge oversupply of this stuff). When buyers don't show prices will decline dramatically -- nobody wants to buy a house in a neighborhood that is loosing value, no matter how cheap it is.

I loved the rant because I am constantly driving around Charlotte thinking about which suburbs will do what. The thing that is needed to save many suburbs is allowing semi-dense, multi-unit housing by-right, thus decreasing the amount of owner-occupied SFHs, giving a more diversified dynamic to the RE ownership in the burbs.

If your subdivision can't sustain enough young buyers to maintain general value, then converting a chunk of those SFH lots into du-tri-quad-plexes could continue bringing money to the area that might have otherwise gone elsewhere, allowing properties to be maintained, values to be sustained. Another important thing to remember is that not everyone should own a home. With renting also comes some freedom, and being segregated to apartment complexes is not the best thing for everyone.

The next step ideally will need to be to create more mini-retail, corner-store style, mixed-use buildings on the edges of those subdivisions on the main roads (apartments over shops, or otherwise). After enough years/decades, each suburban area will benefit from becoming semi-self-sufficient in a pseudo village-like manner. But I'd say there's more fear prohibiting that from happening than anything else.

Edited December 28, 2018 by SgtCampsalot

[elrodvt]

25 minutes ago, SgtCampsalot said:

I loved the rant because I am constantly driving around Charlotte thinking about which suburbs will do what. The thing that is needed to save many suburbs is allowing semi-dense, multi-unit housing by-right, thus decreasing the amount of owner-occupied SFHs, giving a more diversified dynamic to the RE ownership in the burbs.

If your subdivision can't sustain enough young buyers to maintain general value, then converting a chunk of those SFH lots into du-tri-quad-plexes could continue bringing money to the area that might have otherwise gone elsewhere, allowing properties to be maintained, values to be sustained. Another important thing to remember is that not everyone should own a home. With renting also comes some freedom, and being segregated to apartment complexes is not the best thing for everyone.

The next step ideally will need to be to create more mini-retail, corner-store style, mixed-use buildings on the edges of those subdivisions on the main roads (apartments over shops, or otherwise). After enough years/decades, each suburban area will benefit from becoming semi-self-sufficient in a pseudo village-like manner. But I'd say there's more fear prohibiting that from happening than anything else.

What's your take on Park Crossing? It seems to be doing very well with people modernizing as needed. 

[SgtCampsalot]

7 hours ago, elrodvt said:

What's your take on Park Crossing? It seems to be doing very well with people modernizing as needed. 

I think you took me to mean having subdivision-only amenities? I've known a few folks who live in Park Crossing and been there a lot. It's gorgeous, of course, and a lot of fun, but IMO it is only creating an island of isolation for families with means. If it's not something that can be used by anyone in the adjacent community, then I do not see it as sustainable (in the literal sense). 

When I say "village-like" I mean more in the sense of having actual publically accessible businesses on the edges of any given subdivision. Like put a NoDa/Elizabeth style retail/mixed-use next to SFH neighborhoods. It of course gets tricky when any given neighborhood only has one or two entrances, but the point is to make "nodes" a thing again.

[asthasr]

3 hours ago, SgtCampsalot said:

When I say "village-like" I mean more in the sense of having actual publically accessible businesses on the edges of any given subdivision.

We have some truly massive subdivisions that seem like they should be able to support at least a convenience store and a small cafe, even if it's in the direct middle of the subdivision. It's truly amazing how devoid of interest these places are.

[tozmervo]

13 hours ago, kermit said:

The exurbs (out beyond 12ish miles from downtown) have plenty of new housing, but congestion is killing them quickly. As they get further from job clusters (in terms of travel time) their growth will slow. If the number of jobs in suburban business districts like Ballantyne increases then these exurbs can remain viable, but the recent trend of professional jobs gravitating towards city centers (Honeywell, Lending Tree, Deloitte, Amazon, etc.) while lower-skill jobs (Red Ventures et. al) sprawling outwards will pressure incomes and RE values here. In addition, the exurbs will face the same demographic pressures of the outer burbs.

Good rant, but I don't think congestion ever kills exurbs. If it did, a lot of sun belt cities would look very different. People have shown time after time that they will live with extraordinary commutes and congestion to live where they live.

[KJHburg]

8 minutes ago, tozmervo said:

Good rant, but I don't think congestion ever kills exurbs. If it did, a lot of sun belt cities would look very different. People have shown time after time that they will live with extraordinary commutes and congestion to live where they live.

One thing I think people forget is that people are not all coming uptown to work.  Many Waxhaw residents work in south Charlotte particularly Ballantyne.  Not a long commute.  Many Concord and Kannapolis residents work in University area with its thousands upon thousands of jobs.  again not a long commute.   Many SC commuters work in south Charlotte and Arrowood area that includes thousands of jobs.   Airport employees live all over but have odd times.  Many Lake area residents work in the northern towns or in Mooresville.  

[asthasr]

1 hour ago, tozmervo said:

Good rant, but I don't think congestion ever kills exurbs.

It doesn't kill them, but it exerts an invisible pressure on their development (and on the economy of the entire region). The reason that a highway fills up again after spending $150 million widening it is simply because a little of the pressure is released and exurbs further away can be developed.

A common new urbanist mantra is that "traffic is good," but I disagree with that. Traffic comes in two types: engaged and passive. Engaged traffic, where there's a possibility that someone will stop and interact with the space through which they're passing, is economically beneficial. Passive traffic, where people are sitting for hours on the freeway and absolutely will not interact with any businesses in the region, is pure drain. I think that this is the reason Atlanta (for example) has plateaued "lower" than might have been expected from its boom times in the 1990s. I think that Charlotte has taken some lessons from that; I hope it's enough to avoid the same fate.

[elrodvt]

9 hours ago, SgtCampsalot said:

I think you took me to mean having subdivision-only amenities? I've known a few folks who live in Park Crossing and been there a lot. It's gorgeous, of course, and a lot of fun, but IMO it is only creating an island of isolation for families with means. If it's not something that can be used by anyone in the adjacent community, then I do not see it as sustainable (in the literal sense). 

When I say "village-like" I mean more in the sense of having actual publically accessible businesses on the edges of any given subdivision. Like put a NoDa/Elizabeth style retail/mixed-use next to SFH neighborhoods. It of course gets tricky when any given neighborhood only has one or two entrances, but the point is to make "nodes" a thing again.

Makes sense to me . Having some walkable amenities around the edge would sure be nice. They couldn't even figure out how to connect to the trail though.

[southslider]

Where is Park Crossing?  Park Rd and what cross street?

[urbanlover568]

On 12/27/2018 at 11:02 AM, Third Strike said:

The inner suburbs seem to be decaying in most cities, except for the most wealthiest parts, like south Charlotte. Whereas the outer suburbs continue to grow and expand. You can see this in many neighborhoods that are located in east, west, and north Charlotte. 

Does Charlotte have the legal ability to do the same here?

Gentrification is pushing lower income families to the suburbs. With the new tax laws in effect, home or condo ownership is looking less attractive now to individuals. It's going to resemble the second world in the near future. Rising costs, lower incentives and higher income inequality are pushing many to rent. Home ownership will be for those who can afford it and keep their home aesthetically pleasing.  Apartment owners/investors know this and the market also, which is why rents rise higher and higher even during the recession.  The days of white picket fenced homes for most are gone. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by mpretori

[elrodvt]

8 hours ago, southslider said:

Where is Park Crossing?  Park Rd and what cross street?

Cross street is park crossing road.

[ffjjjj]

Just wanted to say how impressive Charlotte is. Here for two nights for the Belk Bowl (UVA ‘72). Saw the Hornets last night at the Spectrum and the game today at BOA Stadium. Your city is incredible! And growing rapidly it appears!  You are very fortunate to be a part of it all happening!

[ffjjjj]

I’d also like to add that I’ve visited practically every major city downtown in the USA and I’d place Charlotte in the top 1%, now that I’ve seen it for the first time in over 20 years. Your uptown is much nicer than any section of Atlanta by the way. Downtown Atlanta, Midtown, Buckhead- none compares to your uptown as far as walkability and diversity and availability of amenities of all types. Congrats. 

[southslider]

3 hours ago, elrodvt said:

Cross street is park crossing road.

Had to look it up. Appears to be a generic subdivision.