kwl

I think we'll see a wave of closures in 2019-2020 as the Craft Brew Alliance released some absolutely jarring numbers for 2018. 3 out of the top-5 breweries saw sales declines in 2018 (New Belgium -11%, Boston Beer (Sam Adams) -7%, and Yuengling -2%). Goose Island -7% and Shock Top -23%. Some silver linings in Michigan breweries with Bell's growing 3% and Founders growing 21%. It's important to note that these numbers reflect production and not actual sales volumes. And Founders did forecast 650k barrels at the beginning of 2018 only to ship ~563k with capacity of 1 million in the current brewhouse in GR. Demand will soften substantially as the drinking culture in the US is going through substantial changes with the introduction of alcoholic seltzers, hard sodas, canned cocktails, etc. Craft brewers will undoubtably struggle in understanding how to segment that market (although Perrin and New Holland are taking note with respective seltzers and canned cocktails). This shouldn't be a real surprise to anyone. Having been a patron of Founders for the past 7-8 years, Monday nights used to be wall to wall people. Outside of times where there is a band, the place feels tremendously empty.

While I agree that Amway is in a period of transformation, judging the new cars parked around RDV means things are probably okay. China's economy is slowing dramatically (along with changes consumption behaviors) and they're being challenged to find their next growth market (which I am assuming will be India, Nigeria, or Philippines). But, the company did post 2018 top-line growth for the first time in like a decade I believe. Even if there wasn't liquid capital to build, many in this town could easily finance it at basically 0% interest. How does it work if we indeed publicly fund the hotel? Is that something the community has to vote on?

Sounds more like outsourced project management and not a "consultant." Although I feel like munis love to throw that word around to just about anyone they bring on in a 1099. At this point, I can't help but feel they're dragging their feet in hopes someone will commit to funding it privately. Quite a bit of local generational wealth has shifted in the past year and that could be tying things up?

Hancock is such a half baked...err...fried concept. There are better places to get fried chicken in town without having to drop $36 on a lunch.

Starting rates at this point look to be $264 (Weekday) and $246 (Weekend)....Yikes! Are downtown rooms really in that short of supply? I paid $195 to stay in the AC in Manhattan during Christmas season.

So it looks as if there will be restaurant space in the Theater building...Wondering if that could be the flagship? What's even more surprising is that the amenities don't seem to be included in the sq. footage....Like the rooftop deck, gym, locker room, etc. Maybe they're anticipating some office space being included in the tower?

If I were to guess, this looks like a logic error on behalf of the website calculating sq. footage off of the 8 spaces available section. I believe what they're trying to market is multiple different configurations of space that are mutually exclusive. Such as if a prospective tenant wants floors 2-7 = 90k sq. ft OR floors 4-5-6-7 = 60k sq. ft. Further observations: 1) Rendering appears to be six stories, so perhaps Floor 1 is below ground? 2) Shows available date as 04/01/2020. Perhaps just a plug or are they building this on spec?

Malamiah mentions "moving to Studio Park" in their Facebook post. If so, another strategic loss for the Downtown Market.

Consumed with the thought that we'll see major movement on a downtown Stadium in the next 2-3 years based on the following observations: 1) 5/3 is a logistical, if not safety, nightmare on game days getting off the interstate. Without substantial investment in routing the offramp/onramps, that location could never be successful. 2) There are a flurry of affiliation deals expiring in the next 3 years (2020 & 2022) and we'll see some movement of teams both from location and team affiliation standpoints. This will force prospective bidders to get competitive with amenities. 3) 5/3rd ballpark is amongst the oldest stadiums in the league that does not have historical purposes. 4) Erie SeaDogs (Tigers AA affiliate) finished in the bottom of their respective league on attendance. (205,000). 5) White Caps finished 2nd in attendance in their league (386,609), second to only Dayton. 6) If measured by attendance, the Whitecaps have higher annual attendance than 4 teams at the Triple-A level (International League). While we're not ready to be promoted to the big leagues, this should say that the area is ready for a more marketable team.

If I'm bearish on the thought of getting a Lucky Strike/Punch Bowl Social/<Buzz Bowling Concept du jour> it's only because Loeks seems keen on doing all entertainment under the Celebration moniker. I can't help but think the Studio C Listening Room concept is tremendously half baked as it's poised to compete with Founders, Stache, and H.O.M.E. for both talent and attendees. I'm not sure how successful the latter two are outside of filling excess capacity on off-nights. I'm sure others will disagree, which is fine, but let us all celebrate one of the first major retail developments to not have a craft beer bar or brewery attached to it (yet).

Just a little fun this afternoon.

Luna is still open I believe.

Could be related to the movement of Warner Norcross and Judd? Who still occupy the building, correct? I can't imagine major site work being completed until the building is vacated.

Lucky's?

Is Tapestry Square finalized and approved? Or is everything still conceptual at this point. I'm a little confused as to what is finalized vs. what is proposed. Is the co-op going in the Tapestry Square building (that has been rendered) or in the hypothetical building on the corner of Wealthy & Division.

One can only wonder if they've got a building up their sleeves for the parking garage parcel? Also, cue John Wick?

I'm traveling maybe 20-25 times a year for business and while I started out using Lyft/Uber (since it's cheaper than parking in the garage for a 4 day trip), I've really cut back over the past year and a half. Here is what is driving that decision: -Most business travelers are going to be flying either early in the AM or later in the evening. 90% of my flights are leaving on the 5:30-6:30AM Delta flights as I'm trying to be at my destination by mid-morning at the latest. -On the return flights, I'm typically leaving the destination in the hours between 2:00PM-5:30PM. 90% of the time (unfortunately) this puts me in GR around 9:00PM-11:30PM. West Coast flights are even worse. I've had to leave Denver 3 times this year before 6:00AM and it will put me in GR around 5:00PM (if I'm not on the United direct). -With TSA-Pre, I typically aim to be at GRR around 10-15 minutes before boarding (so roughly an hour before departure time). This cuts is close usually, but have never had issues. Once left downtown 40 minutes before departure (so start of boarding) and still made the flight about 3 minutes before boarding door close. Many people are much more conservative though and aim to be to the airport an hour before boarding (1:40 before departure). For a ~6:00AM flight, this is arriving at the airport as early as 4:00AM. -Assuming a departure from downtown, an Uber/Lyft takes about 20-25 minutes to get to GRR. That would mean hailing service as early as 3:30AM sometimes. I've never had success with getting a ride this early. Keep in mind that would mean a car would be outside your door step and in GR, I've had cars come from as far as Grandville before. Which, in and of itself would add another 20-30 minutes of waiting meaning that you'd need to hail at 3:00AM. -The same goes for flights arriving later in the night. At 11:30PM arrival times, I've hailed Ubers only to be assigned a driver that is downtown. This, of course, takes 20-30 minutes for them to arrive and at that time of night I am not really interested in burning more time. This means I'll usually try to hail the second the wheels hit the runway. All things aside, it's just not very reliable for people on similar schedules (which I would imagine would be a large number of people traveling for work). Hopefully this means the garage will remain quite full (it's very hard to find parking as is) for some time to come.

Look at the favorable tailwinds in Florida though. No state income tax, demand for wealthy Americans to retire in warmer climates, steady supply of unskilled labor provided by immigration/migration, relatively recessionary proof service industries, etc. I'm also guessing we'll see a collapse in Miami property values much sooner before sea level rise actually threatens properties. From what I understand, bridges in Miami are built very low and are already hampering yacht access into some of the inland waterways. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ . Also, insurance companies have to be getting a little antsy at insuring 30 year loans...

I'm a little confused. Has building A effectively been cancelled? This was the Franklin Partners building?

Interestingly, Hyatt has a very limited presence in Michigan (for being an Illinois brand). Hyatt Place is the only brand in Michigan (we do not have a Regency, House, Hyatt, etc. in the state). I do agree with you though. It seems Hyatt Place, AC, and Home2 will satisfy the younger, hipper millennial hotel options. The article doesn't mention much about a Spa, so I would gander that probably rules out higher end brands such as Intercontinental, Conrad, etc. Although intended room number probably eliminates a large number of brands such as W, Aloft, etc. One out of left field guess would be an EDITION. It's more of a luxe property, but Marriott has hinted that they'd like to get a portfolio of about 100 of them. JW Marriott Grand Rapids was the first JW in the midwest, which may make the organization comfortable to take a gamble. I would argue that if AHC & George Aquino are heavily involved that they'll want to make a splash.

I don't think we'll ever get an IKEA. They've really made progress with e-commerce and most products you can now have shipped to your house/office. Also, I'd see somewhere like Okemos getting one before we do...only to satisfy the MSU college demand.

Agree with everything except these two statements. I have a hunch that GRFC and 5/3rd ballpark end in marriage to some capacity including significant investment in expansion of the facilities. Second, while I wish for a Whole Foods dearly, I feel like Amazon will block expansion of retail facilities and we'll instead see something like Amazon now offering us access to same-day/next-day deliver of WF and it's serviced out of Lansing or Chicago. I'm not saying it's good or bad, but can't help to feel we're in a post-craft beer phase. Tourism related to craft beer will be on the decline.

I'm sure I'll love it too, but can't help to feel that ArtPrize has lost is voice. Obviously we're not competitive with Art Basel or SXSW. My biggest gripe is that there was a failure to add anything truly transformative over the years. Art, was for the most part, 90% the same. We needed more music, film, performance, etc. that could offer something truly unique on a year-to-year basis.

Final Bonus 2019 pessimistic prediction: Grand Rapids will temporarily struggle with identity in a post-Art Prize & post-Craft Beer environment. I predict three primary events that will drive this: -Founders will announce a significant brewery expansion in a major coastal city which will depress Grand Rapid's reputation as a craft beer destination. -Studio C will compete with the theater at UICA and ultimately force Kendall to make some difficult decisions with remaining at The Gallery. Ultimately, I think they move indie films back into 41 Sheldon and exhibitions are absorbed into the existing campus. -Project 1 will be ambitious, but fail to capture the momentum that ArtPrize had. It will bring great art to town, but will alienate a significant amount of attendees/patrons that enjoyed the kitschy crap that popped up every year.

My 10 layman's predictions for the coming year. Split between optimism and pessimism. 1) Studio C will finally force downtown retail to turn a corner. This will lead to something new and exiting in at least one of the major downtown vacancies (38 Commerce, 20 Fulton, Morton, etc.). 2) We won't see movement on the DeVos Convention Center Hotel. I think CAA will stall to see what occupancy is like after a bevy of hotels come online (Curio, AC Hotel, Hyatt Place, Residence Inn, Embassy Suites, etc.) 3) We'll finally see movement at 201 Market, but it will differ in scope from the original proposal. 4) Gordon's or Bridge Street Market will be forced to reinvent themselves as neither really fills a true downtown grocery need. 5) We'll see a flurry of development in Monroe North area with manufacturing moving out and residential/retail/restaurants coming in. This will stretch from 196 up to the Creston district. 6) A major, historical downtown restaurant will shutter or reinvent itself (Leo's, Gardella's, Sanchez, Bistro, Charley's Crab, etc.). 7) Downtown USPS will finally move to coincide with Amazon warehouse opening and the weird bi-partisan tailwinds at play. DeVos will obviously be involved in some capacity. 8) Fragmentation of downtown parking payments will not improve. Motu will continue to frustrate. 9) We'll see major corporate QSR players begin to invest in downtown. Think Chipotle, Five Guys, etc. 10) Finally, this may be optimistic to some and pessimistic to others, we'll see the entrance of a scooter rental company (Bird or Lime).