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What does a depression even mean vs. a recession? Longer duration? Farther fall?

Crap, I definitely placed my order too late yesterday. Oh well, I guess it's just money... @A2., you have knack for these things. I remember that you pre-called 08 quite accurately, hence the reason why I'm taking your comments so seriously. I'm maintaining my 401K and Roth IRA positions for now since I'm 30+ years from retirement, but liquidated everything else.

My cousin works for BofA and forwarded the below message from an analyst who attended a Goldman Sachs update call. The main takeaway is that this is a temporary issue and not systemic. @A2., I assume you think this is BS - where's the disconnect? Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in.The key economic takeaways were:50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.

@A2., I put in trade orders tonight...will they trade at open tomorrow morning? Just curious as to the timing mechanics of how it works. Hoping I wasn't too late to catch today's up.

@A2., what website do you use to monitor futures? Curious to see how things are looking for tomorrow.

I think we should take a similar approach to how we structured the car company bailouts. We need the airlines and can't afford to let them fail. It will ultimately be worse for consumers if we do let them fail since there will be zero competition if only a couple survive. We should provide them with loans and have them repay with interest over time as they are able. It is a win for the businesses, employees, consumers, and government.

@A2., we have about 30 minutes before markets close. I haven't made any moves yet...where do you see things heading tomorrow?

@A2., do you see markets rebounding somewhat tomorrow before additional drops during the week?

@A2., where do you suggest we put our money?

@A2. , seems like the depression you're forecasting is due to something way deeper than Coronavirus. For us simpletons out there, what's the short version of why you're predicting such a drastic fall-off?

Really? You think it will be that bad? Even in 08 the Dow lost about 45% of its value. Dropping to 8,000 would be over a 70% drop! Seems pretty insane.

@A2., where do you think the Dow Jones bottoms out? I'm calling 18,000, but I will admit that I pulled that number out of my ass.

Bummer, but it's a smart decision for his health. I hope he stays close to the franchise in the form of either a coaching role or office position. Best of luck, LUUUUUUUUUKKKE!

I'm trying to convince my company to buy an apartment complex in Charlotte, but they are so hot on Austin and Orlando right now, it's hard to push them in the right direction. So, a few questions for the UP crew: 1. What would you say are the best arguments for buying in Charlotte? 2. Do you think Charlotte is currently being overbuilt with apartment right now? 3. If we were to buy in Charlotte, I think we'd want to buy in an up and coming but not yet fully discovered area. What parts of Charlotte would qualify? I'm thinking the South End ship may have sailed at this point since I think it might be too expensive for us. We would probably target a value-add project. Thanks everyone!

I think the Deloitte Tower is the perfect size and design for a gateway building to uptown. I don't think we need something overly huge on that corner, and the cantilever aspect acts almost as a threshold into uptown. I'm very pro.

To me, it looks like they still have one more floor of apartments to go. So, I think the parking will be flush with the apartment roofline per the rendering. Maybe I'm missing something here.

Agreed, central tunnel is not necessary. CenturyLink Field doesn't have the central tunnel for the Sounders, so not quite sure why they'd need it here. Also, those names are generally atrocious. Charlotte FC is the clear (yet most boring) choice of those bunch, but I'd like to see more creativity. That's why I'm such a big proponent of Queen City Rangers of Charlotte FC, or QCR Charlotte FC, abbreviated as QCR. Oi oi oi!

My wife and I are taking my parents out on Christmas Eve for dinner and we're trying to decide on a restaurant. We're looking for something pretty high-end - Italian, steaks/seafood, or upscale Southern food would fit the bill. We want it to be a pretty special experience. Does anyone have suggestions? Thanks in advance!

My vote would be Queen City Rangers of Charlotte FC. I know its a mouthful, but could be shortened to QCR (akin to Queens Park Rangers, or QPR, a team based in London), and Rangers FC is the Protestant team based in Glasgow (Celtic being the Catholic team based in Glasgow) which would pay homage to many of our early settlers (Scots-Irish Presbyterians). Or, Queen Charlotte Rangers FC. Something along those lines. Logo would be a shield including the X flag of Scotland but with Panther blue instead of navy blue, and the logo would also include the palmetto emblem of SC and components of the NC flag as well. Also included would be the Charlotte crown. Colors would be Panther blue as the primary color, white and black and equal secondary colors, and red and gray as tertiary colors.

I am from Charlotte, moved to Seattle in 2010. My wife's family is from the Seattle area, and I imagine I'll always be here. My parents still live in Charlotte, my sister lives in Wilson, but my wife is a homebody. Any sizable home (3,000+ SF) in even a halfway decent part of the Seattle area that won't be longer than a 1 hour commute to downtown is $1 MM +. The same house in Charlotte is under $500K. I would love to move back to Charlotte, and even if I earned what the cost of living calculators show would be the decreased salary I'd earn, I'd still have more money in my pocket at the end of the day, even when considering the income tax. So, unless you're earning 7 figures, NC is a way better place to be from a net earnings (and affordability) standpoint.

@A2., just curious, but do you think the impending crash will be largely tied to stocks, real estate, or both? OR something different? Also, how much longer do you think we have before the proverbial sh!t hits the fan?

I'm surprised that they're demolishing the shopping center on Providence in front of Rea "We Bulldozed The" Farms Village. That shopping center can't be more than 20 years old, probably newer. Seems like another tenant could have occupied the space. What are they replacing that plot with?

This is such a great project - I can't believe the power lines weren't buried as part of the work. When is burying lines going to become a standard requirement with new development in Charlotte? Seems crazy.

I'm holding out for MLS over MLB. Way more entertaining sport and has a much brighter future.

Queen City Rangers of Carolina.