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Next large Georgia city


ATLman1

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It is a stretch but in fact you can say that about any of Georgias mid-sized cities.

Savannah, Augusta or Macon will become "Birmingham-sized" before Columbus does if you factor in current growth rates. BUT that wont happen for maybe another 50 years...not 25.

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It is a stretch but in fact you can say that about any of Georgias mid-sized cities.

Savannah, Augusta or Macon will become "Birmingham-sized" before Columbus does if you factor in current growth rates. BUT that wont happen for maybe another 50 years...not 25.

Again, the operative term in your comment is "current growth rates." Whether they remain the same or not is the $64k question. There is POTENTIAL for a Columbus boomlet based on BRAC, whitewater, AFLAC and (more attenuated) Kia. Whether that boomlet is realized and can be sustained is anyone's guess.

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While I think all of the second-tier cities in Ga have a decent chance at becoming " Birmingham-Size", I have to say that Columbus and Macon have the best chance because of their proximity to Atlanta. Overspill from the Atlanta Metro is going to head the way of one of these cities but which one is yet to be seen (maybe both). Currently Atlanta is sort of prohibiting other cities from reaching their full potential by pretty much overshadowing them, but when Atlanta maxes out then there will be extremley significant growth in other parts of GA starting with the two closes metros (Macon and Columbus). Though I am a strong avocate for Macon, being from the area, I can't deny that Columbus has a lot gowing for it with the coporate presence it currently has.

*Also i find it interesting that all of the major metros in GA have the help of an out of state county except Macon. I wonder how this will affect the Macon/Warner robins/Fort Valley MSA as far as growth in the future.

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It is a stretch but in fact you can say that about any of Georgias mid-sized cities.

Savannah, Augusta or Macon will become "Birmingham-sized" before Columbus does if you factor in current growth rates. BUT that wont happen for maybe another 50 years...not 25.

The growth rate of Columbus will be much higher over the next 5 years than all of those cities.

While I think all of the second-tier cities in Ga have a decent chance at becoming " Birmingham-Size", I have to say that Columbus and Macon have the best chance because of their proximity to Atlanta. Overspill from the Atlanta Metro is going to head the way of one of these cities but which one is yet to be seen (maybe both). Currently Atlanta is sort of prohibiting other cities from reaching their full potential by pretty much overshadowing them, but when Atlanta maxes out then there will be extremley significant growth in other parts of GA starting with the two closes metros (Macon and Columbus).

I totally agree!

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I already consider anything north of the Fall Line part of Atlanta. It may not currently be a realistic viewpoint, but in a matter of years, Macon Augusta and Columbus will be satellite Atlanta cities as well as Greenville, Chattanooga and perhaps Birmingham. I would say that the next large city in GA will come from the southern half because only those cities/towns are the ones that actually have to rely exclusively on themselves for a sustaining and growing economy. Atlanta is so huge now that all the cities/towns above the fall line have to give at least a substantial amount of credit for their growth to the South's mega city, Atlanta.

Savannah, while starting to get back on track, has not really grown much over the last several years, just has mainly reinvented itself over and over. Im not sure anyone knows if the latest reinvention will be the one that helps Savannah finally grow, but of course Savannah is facing critical water issues of saltwater intrusion into the Floridan Aquifer that are not going to resolve anytime soon. I am not very familiar with Albany, GA other than every year the Georgia Trends magazine says pretty much the same thing about the community's downtown revitalization efforts which implies that not a lot is going on over there. Valdosta is growing, and I would guess that it could grow to twice its current size but will stop at that.

My best guesses for South Ga's and eventually Ga's nextt large cities are actually two smaller cities that have amazing potential and are already beginnning to earn their spots on the map with explosive growth and smart planning initiatives. Those candidates are Statesboro and Brunswick.

Statesboro, as everyone knows is host for a major school (Georgia Southern University - and three other colleges) that has just been rewarded Research/Doctoral University status by the Carnegie Foundation - the highest status a university can achieve. GSU is now ranked with UGA, GT, Ga State, and Emory. The private sector is developing enough housing for the anticipated enrollment of 25,000 by 2010. But aside from that, Statesboro is also host to the East Georgia Regional Medical Center which has been ranked as one of the top 100 hospitals in the nation and has drawn a large medical community to the city. Statesboro's industrial parks host major tenants such as a 3million sf Walmart Distribution Center. The municipal airport now receives charter service from a midsize airline. Statesboro is also known nationally for its recreation department that is considered to be the best in the Southeast. Its first greenway was just completed and over 300 miles of greenways are currently in the planning stages. Several new convention centers are in construction and the city offers nearly 1000 hotel rooms. Real Estate is booming - there are currently over 3000 apartment bedrooms under construction and several 400+ home subdivisions underway outside the city limits. The Economy of Statesboro is very diversified even in light of the $500+ million GSU impacts the region annually. It is also in close proximity to Fort Stewart, while just far enough away for military persons to live outside of the base's influence.

I would guess Brunswick also because of its already grounded economy and its domination of the undeveloped coastal areas. Georgia's coast is one of the last pieces of shoreline that is not yet on its way to becoming an overdeveloped California or Florida. Of course, although government officials are trying to form a grip on the region before explosive coastal development occurs with Georgia's Coastal Development Plan, the development is already starting to take place. Brunswick is poised to be the central city to that future development with its already established port presence.

While these candidate are still small cities, their growth spurts are beginning to take shape on the Georgia map and I feel these two cities have the most potential to become the next large Georgia cities that will have little Atlanta influence. And while these cities are small, I believe their growth spurts will last a very long time, rapidly advancing status levels quicker than many cities have in the past. The development in these two area will occur and already have begun - its only a matter of time before the rest of Georgia acknowledges. Statesboro and Brunswick have the foundations to become the next large cities of tomorrow's generation.

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I agree...Brunswick definately has a bright future. After all, The Georgia coast is the safest of the East coast states in hurricanes since it sits further west than anywhere else in the East coast and storms usually hit Florida or the Carolinas before they do Georgia (although it is not immune). It is almost (weather-wise) the closest you can get to overall mild yearly temps outside of Florida with very minimal frost and no snow in the winter, (Is pretty green year-round) and has one of the most beautiful coastlines anywhere!

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I already consider anything north of the Fall Line part of Atlanta. It may not currently be a realistic viewpoint, but in a matter of years, Macon Augusta and Columbus will be satellite Atlanta cities as well as Greenville, Chattanooga and perhaps Birmingham. I would say that the next large city in GA will come from the southern half because only those cities/towns are the ones that actually have to rely exclusively on themselves for a sustaining and growing economy. Atlanta is so huge now that all the cities/towns above the fall line have to give at least a substantial amount of credit for their growth to the South's mega city, Atlanta.

Savannah, while starting to get back on track, has not really grown much over the last several years, just has mainly reinvented itself over and over. Im not sure anyone knows if the latest reinvention will be the one that helps Savannah finally grow, but of course Savannah is facing critical water issues of saltwater intrusion into the Floridan Aquifer that are not going to resolve anytime soon. I am not very familiar with Albany, GA other than every year the Georgia Trends magazine says pretty much the same thing about the community's downtown revitalization efforts which implies that not a lot is going on over there. Valdosta is growing, and I would guess that it could grow to twice its current size but will stop at that.

My best guesses for South Ga's and eventually Ga's nextt large cities are actually two smaller cities that have amazing potential and are already beginnning to earn their spots on the map with explosive growth and smart planning initiatives. Those candidates are Statesboro and Brunswick.

I disagree. The only city that can credit its economic boost to Atlanta is probably Macon. I know plenty of people who moved to Macon because they worked in Atlanta. I can't say the same things for the other cities. Augusta is a full two hours away from Atlanta and doesn't rely on it anymore than Brunswick does. If anything it will rely on it a lot less with a lot of the retail developments going on. I know people occassionally travel to Atlanta for upscale shopping but that's about it. And I'm sure that ALL cities in Georgia, SC, and Alabama travel to Atlanta for that same reason. As a matter of fact, studies have stated the opposite. Augusta received little to no economic impact whenever special events such as the Olympics came to Atlanta.

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^ I completely agree... Though it would be nice to rely on Atlanta as a crutch for attracting new growth, Augusta isn't in the position to make that happen... If the city is to grow significantly, it will have to be on its own merits (or possibly with the help of Columbia moreso than Atlanta).

The time has finally come for Macon to feel some of Atlanta's growth, and it won't be much longer before Columbus and Athens get some spillover as well, but Augusta and Savannah are on their own.

I think I've stated this earlier in the topic, but I'm with the folks that say that the coastal areas will be the next big thing in GA. The surrounding coasts in SC and FL are booming. GA's coastal areas can only hold off the development for so long...

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Athens has already been getting a lot of spillover from Atlanta. While I stick to my original opinion, I will say that Augusta is probably the least affected from Atlanta's economy than Columbus and Macon due to the lack of development along I-20 in east GA, but I still think that in the future Augusta will be a satellite city to Atlanta. The I-20 corridor will have to develop eventually - its the last undeveloped Atlanta interstate just behind I-85 north.

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Athens has already been getting a lot of spillover from Atlanta. While I stick to my original opinion, I will say that Augusta is probably the least affected from Atlanta's economy than Columbus and Macon due to the lack of development along I-20 in east GA, but I still think that in the future Augusta will be a satellite city to Atlanta. The I-20 corridor will have to develop eventually - its the last undeveloped Atlanta interstate just behind I-85 north.

I see what you're saying but I really have to disagree (at least at it applies to Augusta and especially Greenville). Augusta is 145 miles from Atlanta. I don't know of another big city in America that has satellite cities 145 miles away, not even Los Angeles (which last time I checked was what, 3 times the size of metro Atlanta). There is absolutely nothing between Atlanta and Augusta except for those pyramids in Eatonton and Lake Oconee. Greenville is in its own metro of over 1 million people so I don't foresee it becoming a satellite to any city.

Like what everyone has said, Augusta and Columbia have more of a relationship. Atlanta is our big city and people go there a lot for various stuff. But on any given day there is a constant flow of people from Augusta to Columbia and vice versa (be it for work, visiting friends, whatever.) From my doorstep to downtown Columbia is only 55 minutes.

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Great topic.....

If I had to name a city that will blossom, I would be torn between Columbus and Brunswick. As many have already listed, Brunswick is in a position. It's almost equidistant between Savannah and Jacksonville. It has a low cost of living and housing prices have not increase to out of hand levels. It also have a major interstate access via I-95.

Now, if I had $500 million dollars of cash on hand for condo development, I would put my money on Columbus. Columbus' proximity to Atlanta is a definite plus. Columbus could definitely become Atlanta's "Fort Worth." The reason why I'm so bullish on Columbus is multifold. One, it has the largest corporate presence outside of Metro Atlanta. If I was a politican in Columbus or Muscogee County, I would definitely use this as a sales pitch. Smaller companies who may not want (or can afford to) move to Atlanta could always settle in Columbus. Hartsfield-Jackson International can get you to almost anywhere in the world...the only other options are Miami, Dallas or Houston in the south.

Columbus has so many pluses that they are too numerous to list.

Another thing Columbus could use to it's benefit is the fact that it's on the Chattahoochee. Columbus has done a great job in reclaiming it's riverside. With continued focus on quality development, Columbus can market itself wonderfully. Another plus is it's location to Calloway Gardens and Warm Springs. What gems and so close to Columbus. Columbus really needs to play up it's proximity to Atlanta while it maintains it's own indentity. While Columbus is not a whole lot closer to Atlanta than Augusta is I feel that because of the amazing development that is taking place on I-85 south, it makes more sense to focus on Columbus than Augusta. Columbus is also only 88 miles from Montgomery and 35 miles from Auburn.

Maybe eventually there will be a GRTA Express Bus from Columbus to downtown with stops in between. Newnan can become a major hub in the process. There is just so much potential. Columbus has a decent public transportation system already in place. They can definitely build on it and make it a showcase for Georgia. BRT service to Columbus' suburbs would be a great start.

I could go on and on about the increase in population and the strong economy there but I will stop here. I guess it's already apparent that I am partial to Columbus from a developmental point of view. Savannah has my historic heart. :wub: I wish all the other cities the best. Before I go, I would like to give honorable mention to Macon. If we ever get a legislature and governor who are pro commuter rail, Macon stands a great chance of exploding. They will be the first major city to be connected to Atlanta....other than Athens. This along with their I-75 access will bode well for them.

So there you have my sentiments....Columbus, Brunswick followed closely by Macon.

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Well, by the year 2025, over 40% of America's population will live in the South. Thats a lot of people in one region so I predict Atlanta will be the South's New York with many large cities around it, but also feeding from it. I consider that every city in New England thrives from New Yorks economy. I think that will be the same for Atlanta when the 40% move here. We are talking about the future in this topic, not current status. In the future, Atlanta will dominate the South's economy and every city in the region. And yes, there is currently nothing between Atlanta and Augusta right now meaning that the I-20 corrider is the last undeveloped Atlanta interstate. Its only a matter of time until the corridor develops as the prime untouched real estate that it is. Its kind of amazing how from everyside of Atlanta, you feel like you are entering the city nearly a hundred miles before you do, but on the east side, you dont even realize Atlanta exists until youre in it.

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Well, by the year 2025, over 40% of America's population will live in the South. Thats a lot of people in one region so I predict Atlanta will be the South's New York with many large cities around it, but also feeding from it. I consider that every city in New England thrives from New Yorks economy. I think that will be the same for Atlanta when the 40% move here. We are talking about the future in this topic, not current status. In the future, Atlanta will dominate the South's economy and every city in the region. And yes, there is currently nothing between Atlanta and Augusta right now meaning that the I-20 corrider is the last undeveloped Atlanta interstate. Its only a matter of time until the corridor develops as the prime untouched real estate that it is. Its kind of amazing how from everyside of Atlanta, you feel like you are entering the city nearly a hundred miles before you do, but on the east side, you dont even realize Atlanta exists until youre in it.

Despite New York City's presence it still is not the only major city in New York. Buffalo and Albany happen to be pretty well known and established cities in their own right. Also I doubt by 2025 that you will see that much development where it will look like Augusta is part of Atlanta. Again they are too far apart. And besides I think you will see the trend of building up rather than out. More and more condo developments are underway for both cities.

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Well, by the year 2025, over 40% of America's population will live in the South. Thats a lot of people in one region so I predict Atlanta will be the South's New York with many large cities around it, but also feeding from it. I consider that every city in New England thrives from New Yorks economy. I think that will be the same for Atlanta when the 40% move here. We are talking about the future in this topic, not current status. In the future, Atlanta will dominate the South's economy and every city in the region. And yes, there is currently nothing between Atlanta and Augusta right now meaning that the I-20 corrider is the last undeveloped Atlanta interstate. Its only a matter of time until the corridor develops as the prime untouched real estate that it is. Its kind of amazing how from everyside of Atlanta, you feel like you are entering the city nearly a hundred miles before you do, but on the east side, you dont even realize Atlanta exists until youre in it.

Not neccesarily. There is LOTS of sprawl type development along Interstate 20 in Covington and Conyers, like 25-30 miles to the east of Atlanta.

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Great topic.....

If I had to name a city that will blossom, I would be torn between Columbus and Brunswick. As many have already listed, Brunswick is in a position. It's almost equidistant between Savannah and Jacksonville. It has a low cost of living and housing prices have not increase to out of hand levels. It also have a major interstate access via I-95.

Now, if I had $500 million dollars of cash on hand for condo development, I would put my money on Columbus. Columbus' proximity to Atlanta is a definite plus. Columbus could definitely become Atlanta's "Fort Worth." The reason why I'm so bullish on Columbus is multifold. One, it has the largest corporate presence outside of Metro Atlanta. If I was a politican in Columbus or Muscogee County, I would definitely use this as a sales pitch. Smaller companies who may not want (or can afford to) move to Atlanta could always settle in Columbus. Hartsfield-Jackson International can get you to almost anywhere in the world...the only other options are Miami, Dallas or Houston in the south.

Columbus has so many pluses that they are too numerous to list.

Another thing Columbus could use to it's benefit is the fact that it's on the Chattahoochee. Columbus has done a great job in reclaiming it's riverside. With continued focus on quality development, Columbus can market itself wonderfully. Another plus is it's location to Calloway Gardens and Warm Springs. What gems and so close to Columbus. Columbus really needs to play up it's proximity to Atlanta while it maintains it's own indentity. While Columbus is not a whole lot closer to Atlanta than Augusta is I feel that because of the amazing development that is taking place on I-85 south, it makes more sense to focus on Columbus than Augusta. Columbus is also only 88 miles from Montgomery and 35 miles from Auburn.

Maybe eventually there will be a GRTA Express Bus from Columbus to downtown with stops in between. Newnan can become a major hub in the process. There is just so much potential. Columbus has a decent public transportation system already in place. They can definitely build on it and make it a showcase for Georgia. BRT service to Columbus' suburbs would be a great start.

I could go on and on about the increase in population and the strong economy there but I will stop here. I guess it's already apparent that I am partial to Columbus from a developmental point of view. Savannah has my historic heart. :wub: I wish all the other cities the best. Before I go, I would like to give honorable mention to Macon. If we ever get a legislature and governor who are pro commuter rail, Macon stands a great chance of exploding. They will be the first major city to be connected to Atlanta....other than Athens. This along with their I-75 access will bode well for them.

So there you have my sentiments....Columbus, Brunswick followed closely by Macon.

I totally agree. Columbus does need to use its proximity to Atlanta. Its only 85 miles to Hartsfield. Its only 70-75 minutes to Hartfield. I can get to Duluth in a little over an hour and a half (as long as traffic is good haha).

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I would prefer to see more growing up than out in Augusta and Atlanta. I new on UrbanPlanet btw. I was wondering what the term CSA means. I know what MSA is. Also, reading a few pages back I noticed some people arguing about MSA and census authority. I would like to say on that topic that communities who are designated as MSA, many are designated because they want to have that classification (in addition to meeting the criteria). There are some MSA-type locations that are not listed as such because they do not want the attention. This means that some communities near larger communities may not agree to be part of the classification which is why MSA and Trade Area are usually so different, and why the MSA not always paints an accurate picture of the Trade Area. So while the Census figures are somewhat authoritative (unless an area is changing rapidly), it is good to note that areas in a Trade Area may not be classified as part of an official MSA.

I do know that Statesboro could have its own MSA, but the community leaders do not want it to have such classification. The elderly officials running Statesboro want it to stay as small as possible and did not approve a classification when it became eligible. I think Savannah's problem is its crime, but the surrounding communities are growing like Pooler as well as the rest of the county. Savannah will stay lower in the rankings since the other established communities will not want to consolidate with Savannah, but the county population is much larger than Richmond and Muscogee counties. I think its 238k just off the top of my head - I could be wrong.

And I personally bring a new member to the table, Statesboro. Many citizens here want to see the growth and the economic development and many others do not. Its a city split in two and acheiving quality growth here is quite difficult. The main advantage we have though is the quality of life we are building. The old people who dont want it to grow are spending all the SPLOST money are rediculously nice facilities, parks, schools, and greenways. Many things that few 3rd Tier cities have. Those things are attracting more people in droves. Im glad their doing it, but they have to be stupid due to how counterproductive their efforts are. I know what Statesboro is and I know what it isnt, and Im not going to try to boast it as something its not. And I love this place, its my home. But I have seen a big town transition into a small city, the small state college become a large research university, the tiny local hospital become a top100 medical center, and small overgrown grassy parks become 100's of acres of award-winning recreation facilities. What impresses me even more is all of the huge investments locals are making to lay the foundation for greater days. Reading magazines like Georgia Trend helps me realize how many cities wish they would have made such investments when they had the opportunity.

Im enjoying myself on here so far and I hope I learn a lot from everyone and maybe someone will learn something from me.

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Welcome to the Planet! I traveled to Statesboro for the first time about a year ago, and it looks like a place with much potential. God knows it was a breath of fresh air after having travelled through Allendale County, SC and Screven County. :) I think one of its drawbacks is proximity to a major interstate, however.

A CSA has a commuter rate of 15, meaning at least 15% of a county's population must travel into an MSA county (either the core county or an outlying county), while an MSA has a commuter rate of 25.

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Thanks Krazeeboi, thats very interesting. A CSA for Statesboro would be huge since some employees come as far as 80 miles away (which is kinda stupid for any sized city if you ask me). We have a lot of commuters from the area counties, mainly because its such a remote desert outside of Statesboro or Savannah.

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To expand on krazeeboi's definition

MSA - Must have a city or urbanized area of at least 50,000 and a total population of at least 100,000.

CSA - Combined Statistical Areas are formed when nearby MSA's or micropolitan areas have a certain level of connectivity (at least 15%).

micropolitan areas have a city or urbanized area of at least 10,000 and but less than 50,000

I don't think the Statesboro area meets the criteria to be classifed as an MSA but it probably is an independent micropolitan area.

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Statesboro

Top Ten Employers

Georgia Southern University - 1825

Bulloch County Board of Education - 1350

Briggs & Stratton - 1,050

East Georgia Regional Medical Center - 750

Wal-Mart Super-Center - 610

Wal-Mart Distribution Center - 602

Viracon - 427

Bulloch County - 348

City of Statesboro - 245

The Sack Company - 200

I know what an MSA is; I'm an economic development student myself - but thanks. I know that MSA possibility came before the city leaders a few years ago, but they didn't want to bring attention to Statesboro's growing economy. They want to keep Statesboro small (and I don't know how they get elected because everyone I know wants it to grow). I know that if Statesboro needed to have 50,000 (which as an urban area, it already does), it would simply need to make a few annexations, but not very large ones.

2004 Official Statistics

Population 24,604 - density 1,950/sqmi

This data excludes non-Bulloch, non-residential students. In other words, the Georgia Southern University students who do not live on campus and are not native of Bulloch County are not counted in the 24,604 figure, although they do reside in Statesboro for 9-12 months each year. To find Statesboro's seasonal population as it fluctuates with Georgia Southern's enrollment, we need to subtract the Bulloch County students and the students living on campus from this figure, which will be Statesboro's population without Georgia Southern, then simply add the enrollment of Georgia Southern for each semester (or season).

2004 Actual Statistics

Season Population Density (pop./mi.2)

Fall - 36,340 - 2,880.00

Spring - 36,040 - 2,855.78

Summer - 27,840 - 2,206.02

As anyone can see, Statesboro is a very dense community in any season and its city limits are drawn very tight - 12.62 mi.2

City Population Area (mi.2)

Valdosta - 43,724 - 30.27

Rome - 34,980 - 29.84

LaGrange - 25,998 - 29.55

Gainesville - 25,758 - 29.1

Brunswick - 15,600 - 25.19

When comparing the 12.62 mi.2 area of Statesboro with the area of cities with similar census populations, Statesboro's city limits cover much less area. This fact can give you an idea of how easily Statesboro could annex several thousand additional residents (many of whom already have city service options) into the municipality quite easily. So I'm pretty certain that while Statesboro's urban-core is not completely enclosed in the city limits, at least the urban-core can satisfy the 50,000 requirement.

As for the 100,000 total requirement, Statesboro's regional trade area encompasses 300,000, but it does overlap parts of Savannah's regional trade area too. Four of the counties between Statesboro and Savannah do business in both cities while Statesboro and Savannah both share employees as well. Statesboro and Savannah both employ a significant number of commuters from each other. I suppose if Statesboro was officially recognized as an MSA, Statesboro, Savannah and Hinesville could form a CSA. Statesboro's trade area is larger simply because Savannah is a coastal city with no trade area on its east side (ocean). Statesboro also gets a fair share of commuters from Liberty County as well, while many military personel choose to make a home in Statesboro because of its withdrawn location from the base. The fringes of Statesboro's trade area also do business in the CSRA and in the micropolitan municipality of Dublin, GA.

If those are the governing rules though, 50,000 and 100,000, I question how Brunswick, GA meets the 50,000 criteria, since it can only muster up 15,600 people in over 25 mi.2 of its city limits. That's quite a scattered population with low density - Just a thought to consider.

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It should. I think it's MSA population mainly comes from the islands, and from the other counties since Glynn's population is just 71,357. It just surprised me when I learned about Brunswick's scattered population since historically, Brunswick has always been a large town/small city.

Statesboro didnt start really growing until the final half of the 20th century although its over 200 years old. It had a small growth in the 70's and really began growing in the mid-80's. Its been exploding since the late 90's (which I would say is when it began transitioning from a large town to a small city), and more recent acceleration since 2003.

Can two MSA's ever overlap or split counties in between two MSA's? The reason I ask is because the northern parts of Effingham and Bryan counties conduct most of their business in Statesboro while the southern portions do business in Savannah. This is especially true for Bryan County because Fort Stewert separates the northern part from the southern part making the two areas somewhat inaccessible from one another, especially at night, when the base requires a night-pass to use the highways.

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