Next large Georgia city

[socaguy]

PJA, i thought the estimates for 2004 were 515,000?

And Augustas metro population is really confined within a close circle around the city. It doesnt have lots of far-flung, 30 mile away cities that contribute to its metro population. The only thing of any size a distance from Augusta is Aiken...and its only 12 miles from Downtown Augusta...and built up in between.

[gah]

PJA, i thought the estimates for 2004 were 515,000?

And Augustas metro population is really confined within a close circle around the city. It doesnt have lots of far-flung, 30 mile away cities that contribute to its metro population. The only thing of any size a distance from Augusta is Aiken...and its only 12 miles from Downtown Augusta...and built up in between.

What Augusta DOES have is the benefit of two large SC COUNTIES included in its metro area -- which has the effect of artificially increasing its population. Aiken County is 1073 square miles -- larger than the state of Rhode Island! Edgefield County is 502 square miles.

By way of comparison, Russell County AL, which is part of metro Columbus, is 634 square miles. Lee County AL --which is directly across the state line from Columbus but, unlike Aiken and Edgefield, is NOT included in its metro count -- is 609 square miles.

Thus, Augusta may not have far flung cities that contribute to its population, but it clearly does have far flung counties which do. Folks in the outer reaches of Aiken and Edgefield probably have little or no connection with Augusta but are nevertheless included in its population count.

All things considered, far flung cities is probably a better combination/synergy in the long run, ie, Greenville/Spartanburg, DC/Baltimore, Miami/Ft Lauderdale, etc

[gah]

By my calculations, the Augusta metro area is spread out over ~ 3278 sq miles. Columbus metro is only ~ 1928 sq miles (not counting Lee County).

[Damon]

Let's not forget about Savannah. It's currently CSA population which includes Hinesville/Ft. Stewart is 364,914 (2000 Census). But, if its bordering South Carolina counties were added Beaufort(Hilton Head) and Jasper, the population would be 506, 529 - greater than Augusta/Aiken (499,684) and Columbus/phenix City (420,965). I do not understand why out of these 3 cities that border another state: Augusta, Columbus and Savannah. Only Savannah does not have the bordering state included in their metro area figures. Hilton Head an Savannah have a very close relationship; probably more so than Augusta & Aiken. Savannah really should be right up there with Augusta in the conversation about the 2nd largest metro area in the state.

[ATLman1]

By my calculations, the Augusta metro area is spread out over ~ 3278 sq miles. Columbus metro is only ~ 1928 sq miles (not counting Lee County).

Thats cool information. Sounds like Columbus is a lot more dense than Augusta. With Columbus growing as fast as it is (30,000+ from Fort Benning coming, Kia's growth right up the road, and if Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) ever becomes part of our metro), Columbus will be unbelievable. Auburn/Opelika will probably be apart of Columbus's metro after the Fort Benning expansion ends. Also, with Kia's massive growth in Harris and Troup County (LaGrange), I see Columbus taking Troup County away from Atlanta's MSA and it becoming apart of Columbus's MSA. It crazy to think that LaGrange, which is only 30 miles from Columbus, is in Atlanta's MSA and not Columbus's!!!

[krazeeboi]

Let's not forget about Savannah. It's currently CSA population which includes Hinesville/Ft. Stewart is 364,914 (2000 Census). But, if its bordering South Carolina counties were added Beaufort(Hilton Head) and Jasper, the population would be 506, 529 - greater than Augusta/Aiken (499,684) and Columbus/phenix City (420,965). I do not understand why out of these 3 cities that border another state: Augusta, Columbus and Savannah. Only Savannah does not have the bordering state included in their metro area figures. Hilton Head an Savannah have a very close relationship; probably more so than Augusta & Aiken. Savannah really should be right up there with Augusta in the conversation about the 2nd largest metro area in the state.

Welcome to the forum.

There is enough economic activity generated in the Beaufort/Hilton Head area so that the residents of Beaufort and Jasper counties don't have to commute to Chatham County for employment, which is what MSA/CSA statistics are based on. The Beaufort/Hilton Head micropolitan area is actually a relatively wealthy area.

[gah]

Let's not forget about Savannah. It's currently CSA population which includes Hinesville/Ft. Stewart is 364,914 (2000 Census). But, if its bordering South Carolina counties were added Beaufort(Hilton Head) and Jasper, the population would be 506, 529 - greater than Augusta/Aiken (499,684) and Columbus/phenix City (420,965). I do not understand why out of these 3 cities that border another state: Augusta, Columbus and Savannah. Only Savannah does not have the bordering state included in their metro area figures. Hilton Head an Savannah have a very close relationship; probably more so than Augusta & Aiken. Savannah really should be right up there with Augusta in the conversation about the 2nd largest metro area in the state.

The "correct" answer is that those SC counties (and Lee County, in the case of Columbus) do not meet the definition created by the Census Bureau to qualify as part of metro. Think that it has to do with % of residents who travel to core county for work -- or something like that. I would think that with development of Hutichinson Island, the SC counties will soon be included (as will Lee County when BRAC kicks in). At that point, it will be a 3-way race for 2d city. Poor Macon is in reverse -- by losing Houston County/Warner Robins, its population is dropping. The Macon experience, coupled with the exclusion of out-of-state counties for Savannah and Columbus and the inclusion of such counties for Augusta, shows just how much arbitrary criteria can warp the true picture of a metro area.

[socaguy]

Thats cool information. Sounds like Columbus is a lot more dense than Augusta. With Columbus growing as fast as it is (30,000+ from Fort Benning coming, Kia's growth right up the road, and if Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) ever becomes part of our metro), Columbus will be unbelievable. Auburn/Opelika will probably be apart of Columbus's metro after the Fort Benning expansion ends. Also, with Kia's massive growth in Harris and Troup County (LaGrange), I see Columbus taking Troup County away from Atlanta's MSA and it becoming apart of Columbus's MSA. It crazy to think that LaGrange, which is only 30 miles from Columbus, is in Atlanta's MSA and not Columbus's!!!

I doubt that very seriously. Ive been to Columbus several times and in all honestly it cant really compare to Augusta.

[gah]

I doubt that very seriously. Ive been to Columbus several times and in all honestly it cant really compare to Augusta.

Well, I been to Augusta several times and I can assure you that Columbus really does NOT want to compare to it! We prefer honest politicians and local businesses (AFLAC, Synovus) to carpetbagging outsiders with no vested interest in the city.

[socaguy]

carpetbagging outsiders? LOL! I agree with you there about the politicians though...very corrupt in Augusta. They can never agree on anything. You have to understand that 2 of metro Augustas counties contribute hardly anything to its metro population...although in the future Im sure they will, as Mcormick county South Carolina seems to be geared to be the next Columbia county. Muscogee county does look to be a little more dense than Richmond county...but most of the southern portion of Richmond county is either woodland, swamp or unihabited parts of Fort Gordon. The same is true for Aiken county. Most of the population of that gargantuan county lives within 10-12 miles of DT Augusta. The Northern half of Aiken county is very sparse. And then you have Columbia county, which is the most dense county of any in EITHER metro....and growing faster than any county in either metro (although Aiken county may give Columbia county a run for its money in the near future, as housing permits in it outpaced C. County last year.

[krazeeboi]

The "correct" answer is that those SC counties (and Lee County, in the case of Columbus) do not meet the definition created by the Census Bureau to qualify as part of metro. Think that it has to do with % of residents who travel to core county for work -- or something like that. I would think that with development of Hutichinson Island, the SC counties will soon be included.

It's also very much a possibility that Beaufort/Hilton Head will become its own MSA first and eventually become connected with Savannah by way of CSA status. MSA requires at least 25% of a county commuting to a core county, while CSA status only requires 15%.

[socaguy]

OK, I did a little research, and even if Troup county Georgia and Lee County Alabama were added to Columbus' metro...it would still fall short of Augustas metro by about 60,000 people...but would be very close in actual size (sq. miles) of Augustas metro. Add a boom of 30,000 people coming to Fort Benning and Kias additional couple thousand and its still smaller, (and dont forget Augustas metro area is growing nicely too.)

[gah]

There is really no need to be totally fixated on size of population. It is merely a function of where political lines are drawn -- ie, whether counties are large or small in size. There can (or should) be little disagreement that Augusta, Columbus, Savannah and Macon are all pretty close in population if we discount arbitrary county lines.

Probably a better yardstick is quality of life. In that regard, having locally owned businesses (as opposed to carpetbaggers) helps -- as evidenced by the corporate commitment of AFLAC, Synovus, Bill Heard, WC Bradley, etc to the redevelopment of Columbus. Also having (relatively) honest politicians is better than having a bunch of crooks who make a city into a laughingstock.

Having a good quality of life leads to a population (regardless of size) who is willing to vote to contribute to civic improvements -- new library, arena, symphony hall, etc -- rather than one which is unwilling to trust its government and, thus, vote against proposed improvements.

The topic is the NEXT large Georgia city. Certainly reasonable minds can differ over which city tha will be.

Tho, based on recent history, a strong case can be made for Columbus -- as well as for Augusta, Savannah, and Macon -- or even Rome or Valdosta. The good news for GEORGIANS is that there are so many viable candidates for the next large GREAT city.

[PJA]

What Augusta DOES have is the benefit of two large SC COUNTIES included in its metro area -- which has the effect of artificially increasing its population. Aiken County is 1073 square miles -- larger than the state of Rhode Island! Edgefield County is 502 square miles.

By way of comparison, Russell County AL, which is part of metro Columbus, is 634 square miles. Lee County AL --which is directly across the state line from Columbus but, unlike Aiken and Edgefield, is NOT included in its metro count -- is 609 square miles.

Thus, Augusta may not have far flung cities that contribute to its population, but it clearly does have far flung counties which do. Folks in the outer reaches of Aiken and Edgefield probably have little or no connection with Augusta but are nevertheless included in its population count.

All things considered, far flung cities is probably a better combination/synergy in the long run, ie, Greenville/Spartanburg, DC/Baltimore, Miami/Ft Lauderdale, etc

That's not true, Aiken Co. and Edgefield Co. are right next to Augusta. IN fact Aiken Co. is right across the river from the city of Augusta. It's all like one big city except a river seperates No. Augusta from Augusta. Most of the population is all in the center of the Augusta MSA with only a few thousand that live in the rural parts. Plus Edgefield Co. hardly contributes any population to the Augusta MSA.

[ATLman1]

Here are some quick facts from the Census Bureau from 2000. It's old I know.

Columbus: people per square mile - 859.7

land area (sq. miles) - 216

Augusta: people per square mile - 646

land area (sq. miles) - 302

[gah]

That's not true, Aiken Co. and Edgefield Co. are right next to Augusta. IN fact Aiken Co. is right across the river from the city of Augusta. It's all like one big city except a river seperates No. Augusta from Augusta. Most of the population is all in the center of the Augusta MSA with only a few thousand that live in the rural parts. Plus Edgefield Co. hardly contributes any population to the Augusta MSA.

Of course its true! Noone disputes that Aiken and Edgefield are "right next to Augusta" (as is Lee AL with Columbus). The point is that Aiken is a huge county -- and its far-flung inhabitants (including those half-way to Columbia) are included in Augusta'a population. Who could dispute that a county the size of a state must include far-flung inhabitants!

Counting ALL of Aiken County (including the "rural parts") is really no different than counting the far-flung inhabitants of the cities of Auburn-Opelika at ~ 25 miles (or even LaGrange at ~ 40 miles) in Columbus's. Obviously most of the population in ALL MSA' s live in the center -- in or near the core counties -- so that's a mere truism making Augusta no different than any other city in the US. Likewise, Marion County hardly contributes to Columbus' popoluation but nevertheless is included in its SMA -- and I do not dispute that Marion County is far-flung!

[PJA]

Of course its true! Noone disputes that Aiken and Edgefield are "right next to Augusta" (as is Lee AL with Columbus). The point is that Aiken is a huge county -- and its far-flung inhabitants (including those half-way to Columbia) are included in Augusta'a population. Who could dispute that a county the size of a state must include far-flung inhabitants!

Counting ALL of Aiken County (including the "rural parts") is really no different than counting the far-flung inhabitants of the cities of Auburn-Opelika at ~ 25 miles (or even LaGrange at ~ 40 miles) in Columbus's. Obviously most of the population in ALL MSA' s live in the center -- in or near the core counties -- so that's a mere truism making Augusta no different than any other city in the US. Likewise, Marion County hardly contributes to Columbus' popoluation but nevertheless is included in its SMA -- and I do not dispute that Marion County is far-flung!

If you counted Auburn/Opelika then that wouldn't be true. All of the Columbus's MSA would not be in the core if you included them. They don't even seem like a suburb of Columbus. But all of the towns that are included in the Augusta MSA definitely seem like part of Augusta. You can drive from Augusta to Aiken and there are businesses and suburban life between not rurual life where it seems like you've left one city and entered another. It just so happens that Augusta spills over into those counties.

[krazeeboi]

For what it's worth, here are UA figures from 2000:

Augusta: ~335,500

Columbus: ~242,000

I think that's a much better indicator of true size than MSA.

[ATLman1]

If you counted Auburn/Opelika then that wouldn't be true. All of the Columbus's MSA would not be in the core if you included them. They don't even seem like a suburb of Columbus. But all of the towns that are included in the Augusta MSA definitely seem like part of Augusta. You can drive from Augusta to Aiken and there are businesses and suburban life between not rurual life where it seems like you've left one city and entered another. It just so happens that Augusta spills over into those counties.

There is plenty of suburban life between Columbus and Auburn/Opelika. It is just not that evident from U.S. 280. Smiths Station, which is located off of U.S. 280, is a bedroom community of nearly 30,000 residents. There are neighborhoods everywhere. Also, many people have lake homes along Lake Harding and Lake Oliver that is off of U.S. 280. It is one of the fastest growing areas in the Columbus metro region. As Phenix City grows toward Opelika and Opelika towards Phenix City, more and more businesses will locate in the area. Its only 20 miles to Opelika from Phenix City. Auburn/Opelika is very much connected with Columbus. They get the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, all of our news stations, etc. Many people commute to Columbus to work for major companies like AFLAC, Synovus, TSYS, Carmike Cinemas, WC Bradley, etc. It is no different than someone commuting from Duluth to Atlanta to work. It is all one huge region. Kia's expansion will only bring the areas closure together. Also, once the tens of thousands of people with Fort Bennings $3 billion expansion are here, I believe Auburn/Opelika will finally be apart of Columbus's MSA.

[gah]

If you counted Auburn/Opelika then that wouldn't be true. All of the Columbus's MSA would not be in the core if you included them. They don't even seem like a suburb of Columbus. But all of the towns that are included in the Augusta MSA definitely seem like part of Augusta. You can drive from Augusta to Aiken and there are businesses and suburban life between not rurual life where it seems like you've left one city and entered another. It just so happens that Augusta spills over into those counties.

But MSA population is NOT based on towns -- but on counties. Waynesboro is probably as far from DT Augusta as Auburn-Opelika are from DT Columbus. Surely, the drive beween the two must include SOME stretches of rural life? Columbus "spills over" into Lee County via Smiths, just like Augusta spills over into Burke at the perimeters. You can drive from Columbus to PC to Smiths -- and there are businesses and evidence of suburban life aplenty. Yet Smiths is not included in Columbus' core population and Lee County is not included in its SMA.

It may "seem like" all the towns included in Augusta's SMA are a part of it -- but, since statistics are based on counties -- proctically all SMA's necessarily include towns which are separate from the core. The only difference between Waynesboro-Augusta and Columbus/Opelika-Auburn is that Lee County, if included in Columbus' SMA, would make a greater contribution than the present nclusion of Burke County does in Augusta's count. However, that is simply a difference in magnitude, not in kind.

It is true that Auburn-Opelika dont seem like suburbs of Columbus. But the Research Triangle Cities in N Carolina -- to give but one example -- probably dont consider themselves to be suburbs of one another either -- but independent, inter-related communities. Yet noone would deny that they are tied together culturally and economically. That is true with Columbus and Auburn-Opelika -- and becoming more so as the

cities all are expanding and growing closer together physically. Tho admittedly there are still some stretches of rural area between -- thank God that sprawl has not totally devoured the landscape (sorry about Columbia County)!

The truth of the matter is Columbus and Augusta may have very different growth models Columbus appears to be following the Triad Cities model -- partnering with nearby cities to develop a regional quality of life -- rather than the centralized-sprawl model Augusta has seemingly adopted. Augusta may be the only dominant city surrounded by a sea of suburbs. But I think Columbus aspires to be a dominant city in a region which includes smaller but distinctive cities with their own unique character.

[gah]

For what it's worth, here are UA figures from 2000:

Augusta: ~335,500

Columbus: ~242,000

I think that's a much better indicator of true size than MSA.

I would tend to agree -- but I'm not exactly sure what Urbanized Area (UA) means.

I do note, however, that the figures show a much greater disparity between SMA population and UA population for Augusta (515,000- 335,500) than for Columbus (280,000-242,000). That shows, I think, the distorting effect that basing SMA population on counties (which are of varying size) can have.

Also the chart may prove yet another point. Notice that Auburn is listed separately at 60,000. Apparently it is not included in the Columbus UA total because the ~ 20-25 miles between them is not totally urbanized. However, when -- sooner rather than later -- that short stretch DOES become completely urbanized (whatever that means), then the Columbus/Auburn-Opelika UA total will be > 300,000. Thereby, putting Augusta and Columbus even closer to parity. No other listed city -- neither Savannah or Macon -- comes close.

Unless I am mistaken, there are no separate UA's similarly situated in close proximity to Augusta which can dramaticallly increase its UA population. (But Savannah does have Hinesville). So, in terms of the NEXT large Georgia city (as opposed to the current one) then UA may point to Columbus -- since I dont think that the Augusta UA will connect with Columbia or any other surrounding UA at any point soon. The Augusta and Columbia SMA's may adjoin but

the possibility of the entire stretch between Augusta and Columbia (or any other surrounding city not already in its SMA) becoming urbanized is remote at best. Certainly, the possibility of that happening is no greater than that the significantly shorter stretch (~40 miles) of interstate I-185 between Columbus and LaGrange and the even shorter stretch of I-85 between LaGrange and Auburn-Opelika will become totally urbanized and lead to a Columbus/Auburn-Opelika/LaGrange UA.

[socaguy]

gah, I may be wrong and might have to look this one up but I think the city of Aiken has its own UA, even though the 2 cities are pretty much connected.

[gah]

gah, I may be wrong and might have to look this one up but I think the city of Aiken has its own UA, even though the 2 cities are pretty much connected.

I did not see Aiken listed separately in the 2000 chart -- which I based my discussion on. Therefore, I assumed that the UA figure for Augusta already included Aiken. I am either wong or UA designations have changed since 2000.

[Topher1]

I did not see Aiken listed in the 2000 chart -- which I based my discussion on. Therefore, I assumed that the UA figure for Augusta already included Aiken. I am either wong or UA desinations have changed since 2000.

The city of Aiken IS included in Augusta's UA number. It is narrowly connected by the string of mill towns between the two cities. The SC portion of Augusta's UA is something like ~80,000 (can't remember off the top of my head)...

I've been on a cruise for the past week and haven't logged on during that time, so I'll try to respond to several of the discussion topics individually...

Regarding the enormity of Aiken Co geographically, here's another way to illustrate how FEW people live outside of the small urban/suburban core of the county... It's a list of the county's high schools.

AAAA: Aiken, South Aiken, N. Augusta

AAA: Midland Valley

AA: Silver Bluff

A: Ridge Spring-Monetta, Wagener-Salley

The largest 4 (1000-1700 students) are easily contained in the small urbanized area. Silver Bluff (~800-1000 kids) serves Beech Island (right across from DT augusta) as well as some rural areas, so it's borderline urbanized. The only high schools in the county that are truly rural are RS-M and W-S, which combine for around ~750-800 kids... So yes, it's true that the county is enormous and many rural areas are included in the MSA stat, but the rural areas really contain an almost statistically insignificant number of people... There are NO decent sized urban centers in the far-flung reaches of the county. Batesburg-Leesville is a semi-substantial, far-flung community that associates with Augusta, but it's just across county lines in Lexington Co., so it's included in Columbia's stats.

Also keep in mind that the majority of the 310 square mile Savannah River Site cuts into Aiken County's enormous land mass. Only ~10% of SRS is used for production, the rest is protected enviromental study land and timber land. If we really want to get picky (this is a bit of a stretch), we could say that Barnwell and Aiken Co. are inextricably linked because both depend so heavily on SRS (Barnwell moreso than Aiken), so Barnwell Co. could be considered part of the region too.

[Topher1]

Here's some brand-spankin' new stats from the census dept. I went ahead and compiled the numbers myself so feel free to double-check my work. Information gathered from these sources...

2005 MSA county designations:

http://www.census.gov/population/estimates...neral/List4.txt

July 2005 county population ESTIMATES:

http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2005-01.html

Augusta MSA

2005	   2004		2000

520,332	516,338	 499,649


% gain between 2000-2005: 4.1395%

% gain between 2004-2005: 0.7735%


Columbus MSA

2005	   2004		2000

284,299	284,413	 281,924


% gain between 2000-2005: 0.0084%

% gain between 2004-2005: -0.0004%


Savannah MSA

2005	   2004		2000

313,874	310,327	 293,299


% gain between 2000-2005: 7.0150%

% gain between 2004-2005: 1.1430%

Macon's gain was insignificant, but neighboring Warner Robbins continues to explode. Percentage-wise, Savannah is the clear winner, but it has a lot of ground to gain before catching Augusta.

It truly is an exciting time in Columbus with all of the new economic investment, but it will be a while before I am convinced that a region that has stagnated for so many years can keep up this pace of investment. Hell, Augusta has been considered in a "recession" for like 20 years now, yet the region still continues to ADD a healthy 4000 people a year. If the region ever breaks out of the "recession" that could mean big things. It could come from the hydrogen research at USC and SRS, or one of many other huge plans at SRS, or the distinct possibilty of Augusta being named as the only nationally-recognized cancer research center in Georgia, or resort communities at Lake Thurmond, or new nuclear reactors in Waynesboro, etc...

Note: As stated earlier in the thread, I don't mean to be an Augusta booster, because I DON'T think the city is poised to become a major national power. I think each city has had, and will continue to have moments of excitement at times, but until any one city steps up and demonstrates that it can support continuous, strong growth over a long period of time, then I think it is IMPOSSIBLE to state which city, if any, will be a large, national player. The battle for #2 city will undoubtedly heat up, but in the long run, that's all we're fighting for... number 2... It's unlikely that our cities will ever be considered anything except "other cities in Georgia..."