Topher1

Thanks for the update SCGuy. I still check the Chronicle online every morning before work up here in NY, but just don't find a lot of time to post/comment on here. I'm looking forward to seeing all the changes (especially the completed I-520) when I'm home for the holidays!

Exactly. This survey isn't necessarily saying that the top-20 markets are "strong," just that they're the most recession-proof. In the case of Upstate NY, it's simply because there really isn't much room for housing prices to go down; they're already incredibly cheap. In a report released earlier this year, the dying Upstate NY city I live in now (Binghamton) was listed as the 2nd strongest housing market in the country (something like a 9% year-to-year increase in home prices while the rest of the country was tanking)... This of course doesn't mean that Binghamton is making some sort of rebound, just that the market was way undervalued and still is... Similar story in the other metros; you can get some amazing homes in awesome neighborhoods in Rochester for a steal; good luck finding a job there though...

Found this picture of the U/C N. Augusta municipal building on northaugustastar.com. This thing is going to have great street presence. The image is apparently a few weeks old, but this is the first time I've seen the full shape of the structure. Image from northaugustastar.com

Awesome. I'm really excited about this project, and the elevation looks nice, though I can't quite figure out what angle it's showing. I'd really love to see this create some retail/restaurant spaces fronting the Commons. The Commons is a perfect spot for cafes or coffee shops, especially with the free wi-fi...

^ I know Ft. Gordon deploys soldiers to Iraq, I just don't know if it's a significant portion of the workforce. I think the primary function of the base is the Signal Corps, which is involved in communications and communications training... So it's much less combat intensive than Ft. Benning. Also, it's a significantly smaller portion of the local economy than Benning... From wikipedia, Ft. Gordon employs up to 30,000 people, whereas Benning employs up to 100,000. So I suppose that it's not only a smaller base, but one with smaller troop fluctuations. Therefore the impact is far less... However, I know nothing about the structure of the military, so anyone please chime in if I'm completely wrong about this. For Augustans, Ft. Gordon is really something that we know is there, but that doesn't really factor in to our daily lives very much (except when there's concerns of it closing)... I imagine Ft. Benning is a much more relevant component to Columbus residents...

Those are released around July 1 every year (usually a few days early). We've still got a few months to wait...

An interesting observation (for those interested in Augusta): The census bureau made fairly significant changes to the Augusta population estimates. Previous estimate releases had the Richmond Co. population dipping down to around 194,000 in 2005 and 2006. However, with the release this year (197,342) they went back and revised the rest of the estimates to reflect a much smaller drop-off. The revised estimates have the lowest population as 196,904 in 2005. However, this didn't reflect a magical increase in metro population. The bureau simply grabbed those additional people from the estimates in Columbia and Aiken Counties... Columbia Co's 2006 estimate dropped by about 1200 and Aiken Co's dropped by about 1600... Not a huge deal, but a bit of nice news for a county that appeared to be hemorrhaging people to the burbs.

2007 County Census estimates were released today. To get the full tables, go to census.gov and follow the link for "Releases." The news release is there, and it contains links to the data. The calculations were done by me, so feel free to correct any mistakes. Also, I didn't do Atlanta because I didn't feel like compiling a list of 487 counties (or however many there are in Atlanta now) One other note, the estimates for 2006 have been slightly updated from the ones released a year ago, so the 2006 numbers may not look completely familiar. Observations: Savannah still is owning all other tier 2's in consistent growth, both in Chatham and the surrounding counties. Also, After a great year in 2006, Columbus' estimates for this year are down a lot... Is this due to troop deployments? In Macon and Augusta, the core counties are holding fairly steady, with suburban growth in Warner Robbins, Columbia County, and Aiken County propping up the growth. 2007 Census Estimates: Augusta MSA: 528,519 Columbus MSA: 287,756 Columbus/Aub-Ope/Tusk CSA 435,608 Macon MSA: 229,846 Macon/Warner Rob./Ft. Val. CSA 386,534 Savannah MSA 329,329 Savannah/Hines-Ft. Stew. CSA 401,132 2006-2007 Numeric Change: Augusta MSA: + 5,911 Columbus MSA: - 7,592 Columbus/Aub-Ope/Tusk CSA - 5,330 Macon MSA: + 820 Macon/Warner Rob./Ft. Val. CSA + 4,246 Savannah MSA + 7,839 Savannah/Hines-Ft. Stew. CSA + 7,975 2006-2007 Percent Change: Augusta MSA: + 1.13% Columbus MSA: - 2.61% Columbus/Aub-Ope/Tusk CSA - 1.21% Macon MSA: + 0.36% Macon/Warner Rob./Ft. Val. CSA + 1.11% Savannah MSA + 2.44% Savannah/Hines-Ft. Stew. CSA + 2.03% 2000-2007 Numeric Change: Augusta MSA: + 28,866 Columbus MSA: + 623 Columbus/Aub-Ope/Tusk CSA + 13,859 Macon MSA: + 7,445 Macon/Warner Rob./Ft. Val. CSA + 29,039 Savannah MSA + 35,651 Savannah/Hines-Ft. Stew. CSA + 35,656 2000-2007 Percent Change: Augusta MSA: + 5.78% Columbus MSA: + 0.02% Columbus/Aub-Ope/Tusk CSA + 3.29% Macon MSA: + 3.35% Macon/Warner Rob./Ft. Val. CSA + 8.12% Savannah MSA + 12.14% Savannah/Hines-Ft. Stew. CSA + 9.76%

I'm too lazy to extract/host the renderings from the pdf on www.trans4mation.org, but according to those renderings, the ramp for 408 W to I-4 W will remain the same in this first phase of construction. Also, the ramp from I-4 E to 408 E will also stay the way it is for now. They're calling this phase the "interim" interchange, which likely means it'll stay this way for a while before final construction is implemented. The final design is stacked, with the additional ramps soaring above the current construction. In fact, it's a lot more compact design than the current interchange, freeing up a decent amount of land... Go to trans4mation.org, hover over "I-4 Improvements," then "Plans and Designs", and click on "Ultimate Trans4mation" to see the final design (or someone less lazy can post it)...

Sunset Place in Miami has an AMC and only garage parking. They do validate parking there (reduces it to $1). The theatre gets tremendous business, although the Falls (surface parking) and the Grove (pay garage) are relatively nearby.

^ The hotel at the Florida Mall (according to original poster at SSP). EDIT: DOh, beat me to it.

It's about even between Greenwood and Augusta commuting. However, McCormick, like Lincoln Co across the lake, is seeing a trickle of lakefront development in it's extreme southern portions that is clearly geared to the Augusta area... If that accelerates (and I think it will, being so close to Columbia Co, GA), only then will it become a part of the Augusta area. In fact, Fury's Ferry Rd, which is one of the major residential corridors in Columbia Co, leads right into McCormick Co, and it's fully developed up to the border already... A lot of that county is protected forest, so I don't think we have to worry about it becoming overrun...

I think we've discussed this somewhere in the Aug. forum, and I made a list of commuting percentages, but I'm not sure where. Barnwell currently DOES meet commuting criteria, not to mention the fact that 1/3 of SRS is in Barnwell. McCormick is close to meeting commuting criteria, and with such a small county, 1 new subdivision near the GA border cut put them over. Lincoln Co, GA has a major percentage of Augusta commuters (like 30% of workforce) and is a very likely addition as people move north of Columbia Co to the lake. HOWEVER, I'm assuming neither of these counties meet the % urbanization criteria, as they are almost exclusively rural. A few GA counties have ties, but they're not significant. So my conclusion is that the only realistic new metro Augusta counties are Barnwell, Lincoln, and McCormick, for a whopping addition of ~41,000 mostly rural residents. Small unforeseen shifts could push rural GA places like Warren, Jefferson, and others, but there are no LARGE counties on the brink of becoming part of the MSA.

Not happening anytime soon. Northeast Aiken and Southwest Lexington are about as sparsely populated as it gets in SC (I know very well because I lived in NE Aiken Co for 18 years). There's a vast void between the two urban areas that isn't growing rapidly. The majority of Aiken's growth is south (towards SRS) and west (towards Augusta). Lexington Co is rapidly growing, but it's still mostly focused towards Columbia. Although there are several thousand commuters from Aiken Co into metro Columbia (and vise-versa), it's a far cry from the numbers needed for a CSA... I do think I would be cool to have a large regional identity along this part of the I-20 corridor, the same way upstate SC identifies with each other along I-85. Increased cooperation between Columbia and Augusta could only benefit both areas, specifically SRS + USC...

I've tried to stay out of the fight, so I'll just add a bit of non-inflammatory opinion. I recently drove from Orlando to Atlanta, and obviously went through Macon. I took 75 through on the way up and 475 on the way down. Anyone from Augusta who thinks our highways (including new construction) are more "impressive" are wrong. Macon's highway infrastructure is much larger AND there are HUGE new projects going on. I'll also add that Savannah has a larger, more comprehensive highway network than Augusta, including the 520 expansion. However, did I think this made Macon feel any more "big-city?"... Not at all. It's no coincidence that the larger, busier highway, and the major interchange improvements are benefiting I-475, the highway which bypasses Macon's core. The city has a LOT more thru-traffic. Wide highways and impressive interchanges mean NOTHING about the size of the city in many cases. The 2 new flyovers at the ends of I-520 aren't going to suddenly make Augusta appear more "big city," simply because the surroundings don't reflect that (mid-density suburban at the GA end and low-density suburban at the SC end). If highway size were of ANY consideration, I'd have to conclude that metro Tifton on I-75 or the megalopolis of Woodbine on I-95 were larger cities than Augusta, since they lie on long stretches on 6-lane highway apart from any major cities, whereas I-20 through the Augusta metro is 4-lane the majority of time.

Don't remember exactly, but the current new city would just barely meet minimum population and population density requirements for chartering a new city adjacent to a current city... I think the number is somewhere around 7000 at a density of 200-250 ppsm. With a completed Trolley Run Station and Sage Creek, the population swells to 15,000, just by adding only those 2 new subdivisions. There will be a LOT of ripe, undeveloped land in the new city, somewhere around 30-35 sq. miles. As a reference, Aiken is less than half that size, and N. Augusta is around 20 sq. miles. In other valley news, there's a push for a new I-20 exit at Vaucluse Rd. using private dollars. This will be close to exit 11, between 11 and 18.

A couple shots of the construction on the N. Augusta municipal center (from northaugusta.net) First, the site in August (posted mainly for the nice backdrop ) This is the update from mid-October. Nothing posted for November yet. The Boudreaux Group has a lot of renderings and siteplans on their site. It looks to be 4 stories of primary space, with the decorative top extending another 2-3 floors or so.

One big issue I see with growth in this area is that (I think) as soon as you cross into Edgefield Co., despite still being in North Augusta city limits, students must now go to Edgefield County Schools (I think this is still the case). With Strom Thurmond HS being at least 35-40 minutes away, this is a huge impediment to families moving in to this part of the city. Edgefield Co. would be wise to build new schools servicing the southern portion of the county. This would infinitely increase the attractiveness of families locating in the county line area. It's already as good of a location as any of Columbia Co, it just needs the schools.

More on N. Augusta growth: I can't find the article, since N.A. Star's website sucks, but last weeks online edition had a nice fluff piece about N.A's growth. The article stated that currently there are more than 8000 housing units approved or under construction in the city limits alone. This is apparently a DOUBLING of current inventory! It also mentioned over 2,000,000 SF of commercial underway/approved. With Aiken's major developments happening just outside the city limits in the future city of G-V-W (Trolley Run), there's a real chance of N.A. overtaking Aiken, despite being almost 10,000 people behind now... The article also mentioned a huge development I'd never heard of... The Springs is apparently a 3700 home development + commercial near highway 25 and the Merovan business park... I don't know where/what Merovan is, but I assume this is also north of I-20, in the area socaguy has mentioned...

I like the New Urban/TND principles a lot. But sticking a TND in the middle of nowhere, far from any significant job base or transit, i.e. Celebration, completely defeats the purpose. Sure, perhaps of few of the residents work in the various suburbanized Celebration office parks and a lot are Disney cast-members, but in general these people are all getting in their cars to go to work and spending a lot more time on the roads than their counterparts in the less-cutesy Baldwin Park... I suppose I'm echoing the other criticizers, but location and accessibility are, IMO, even more important than the interior design of the neighborhood. I find the exterior accessibility of Celebration excessively hostile; far less inviting than even the most generic of subdivisions throughout the east/northeast sides of town that I'm most familiar with. Is it even possible to leave Celebration (and reach any decent destinations) by foot or bicycle? As an aside, in my hometown (Augusta, GA), a TND is under development directly across the river from downtown. It emphasizes pedestrian accessibility, extending the street grid, public access to all desirable locations (specifically the riverfront), and convenient access to jobs and services. That is, IMO, the focus that New Urban communities should try to have. They should be an integral part of the community, not an insular community to themselves. Baldwin Park is the closest example Orlando has, and if the previously rumored Lymmo route ever pans out (or better yet, light rail), then that would be a redevelopment model I'd like to see around Orlando.

Google Maps puts 901 9th St. right at Fenwick. The story from WRDW seems to infer that these townhomes (3 floors) are part of a larger group of development around this block including the new courthouse, the shopping center, and single-family homes. The story also mentions that the Rivermark is still expecting a groundbreaking around the first of the year. http://www.wrdw.com/news/headlines/9160866.html My unfortunate guess (given the current condition of the block and the name 'The Enclave') is that this will be a gated townhome complex rather than an urban, sidewalk-oriented design. I hope to be proven wrong...

Great news! Any idea of a project name or website?

^ The site across from South Meadow's WAS the original site for the proposed Sam's Club, but I thought that was shot down by the commission. Didn't see any activity there when I visited in July other than the Mexican restaurant and the townhomes... Have they started construction on something there?

Unlike Aiken, Edgefield actually vastly exceeds minimum commuting requirements, with 44% of its workforce commuting into the core metro counties. Since Aiken Co receives the largest number of Edgefield commuters, if Aiken hypothetically split, Edgefield would probably go with it.