Update.......Little Rock National Airport.

[Architect]

Not doubting you, but I cannot find any information on this.  SWA's website doesn't show nonstop in November or December.  

Not doubting you, but I cannot find any information on this.  SWA's website doesn't show nonstop in November or December.  

I believe I saw it on airliners.net (major worldwide airline forum), but it may have been a separate article I saw somewhere. My apology…I should have linked the source in the first place.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wayward Memphian]

On 6/14/2021 at 9:47 AM, Arkanzin said:

Not doubting you, but I cannot find any information on this.  SWA's website doesn't show nonstop in November or December.  

It is there. The catch is that it is less than daily and those days aren't set in stone. Mostly seen on off peak days like Sat and Tue where there's fleet slack.

[Wayward Memphian]

MEM and XNA gained Frontier twice weekly to Vegas service starting in Aug. This is still one where LIT has the advantage with Southwest's LAS nonstop.

Allegaint flies MEM/LAS six days a week in the summer as well as LAX.  I figure Southwest to LAS from the neighbor over east is inevitable and likely starting in 2022. 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Arkanzin]

On 6/18/2021 at 11:01 AM, Wayward Memphian said:

It is there. The catch is that it is less than daily and those days aren't set in stone. Mostly seen on off peak days like Sat and Tue where there's fleet slack.

Okay, I found some nonstop flights.  I found one on a Wednesday, one on a Saturday, and one on a Sunday, but this was not every Wednesday, Saturday, or Sunday as there was not a nonstop on the following Wednesday, Saturday, or Sunday.  Weird scheduling for sure. 

[Wayward Memphian]

3 hours ago, Arkanzin said:

Okay, I found some nonstop flights.  I found one on a Wednesday, one on a Saturday, and one on a Sunday, but this was not every Wednesday, Saturday, or Sunday as there was not a nonstop on the following Wednesday, Saturday, or Sunday.  Weird scheduling for sure. 

Like I said, they are throwing a plane on it when there's some slack in the system. This will the case for many Southwest routes as they cope with adding destinations during the pandemic and not having enough metal or humans to return the rest of the network back to pre pandemic frequencies and service. Their CEO has said as much as their focus is now on getting that back. This opens the door for others like Breeze. 

 

Here's an example.  Southwest has flown  MEM/TPA since the day they took over AirTran's Memphis operations. They nixed it during the pandemic. They have brought it back to Sat Only. There's much beotching about this in MEM.  They couldn't restart this daily if wanted to right now.  Their only saving grace is that MEM is in the middle of finishing up their revamp of Concourse B where all carriers will consolidate.  I have to believe that is the only reason Breeze hasn't landed there yet is they are waiting till the new B opens. MEM is very similar to SDF(Louisville). 

[Wayward Memphian]

LIT-MCO is a consistent top 40 unserved route, XNA-MCO is not.

 

Yet today Frontier announced XNA-MCO on Fridays and Mondays starting Nov 1

 

[Wayward Memphian]

 LIT seems to run out of steam for it's Saturday only MIA flight in AA.  They have thrown some incentives at it to bring it back for NOV to 2022 but it has to sell some tickets.  LIT is also concerned that they may lose their DCA flight via AA it's load factor was in the mid 70% range in 2019 and hasn't sufficiently rebounded post 2020 yet. I think it is a bit premature to call it doomed but it isn't doing well even andbin trouble with Covid taken in to account.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/sep/29/dc-lr-air-route-at-risk-of-being-cut/?news-arkansas

Compare to Memphis with it's 3 times daily flights often scheduled with mainline equipment(A319s).

XNA is moving forward with a second concourse with 2023 targeted for construction. Sounds like they are lining this up with the access road timeline.  It'll nearly double the gates to around 25. It has also purchased more land to accommodate an east/west runway in the next 25 years. Their advisor states two runways is all XNA will ever need. 

 

 

[Architect]

31 minutes ago, Wayward Memphian said:

 LIT seems to run out of steam for it's Saturday only MIA flight in AA.  They have thrown some incentives at it to bring it back for NOV to 2022 but it has to sell some tickets.  LIT is also concerned that they may lose their DCA flight via AA it's load factor was in the mid 70% range in 2019 and hasn't sufficiently rebounded post 2020 yet. I think it is a bit premature to call it doomed but it isn't doing well even andbin trouble with Covid taken in to account.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/sep/29/dc-lr-air-route-at-risk-of-being-cut/?news-arkansas

Compare to Memphis with it's 3 times daily flights often scheduled with mainline equipment(A319s).

XNA is moving forward with a second concourse with 2023 targeted for construction. Sounds like they are lining this up with the access road timeline.  It'll nearly double the gates to around 25. It has also purchased more land to accommodate an east/west runway in the next 25 years. Their advisor states two runways is all XNA will ever need. 

 

 

MIA Saturday only flights are primarily geared around the cruise schedules, right?  Seems like it’s a bit premature to be banking on that given lingering COVID.  Regarding DCA, I read that article…still running at 67% vs. target of mid 70’s…not too far off, but LIT often seems to struggle with direct routes versus hubs (NYC for example, has been on again, off again for years).

Regarding future concourse construction, LIT’s master plan calls to replace the concourse in its entirety in the next 10 years, going from 12 gates to 20 I believe.  For XNA to plan 25 is…shall we say…ambitious (to put it nicely).  For example, TUL is almost twice the size of XNA, and they don’t have that many gates.

[Wayward Memphian]

On 10/3/2021 at 12:52 PM, Architect said:

MIA Saturday only flights are primarily geared around the cruise schedules, right?  Seems like it’s a bit premature to be banking on that given lingering COVID.  Regarding DCA, I read that article…still running at 67% vs. target of mid 70’s…not too far off, but LIT often seems to struggle with direct routes versus hubs (NYC for example, has been on again, off again for years).

Regarding future concourse construction, LIT’s master plan calls to replace the concourse in its entirety in the next 10 years, going from 12 gates to 20 I believe.  For XNA to plan 25 is…shall we say…ambitious (to put it nicely).  For example, TUL is almost twice the size of XNA, and they don’t have that many gates.

XNA's advisors had predicted a doubling of passengers along with the population to around 2040-45 right before Covid hit. As posted within this thread, it as within overtaking LIT in a couple of years before Covid.  I think XNA's main thinking is that the new concourse will accommodate larger aircraft and the gates having the space to do it. Frontier is up to 3 destinations and they are flying in 180 seaters. Allegiant, same deal. Breeze has 100 to 115 seats and are getting 130 to 140 seaters starting this month.  More traffic may mean more mainline from the Legacies. These would be the planes that are the last in, overnight at the gate and first to leave.  If and when Southweat comes calling, every plane is at least 150 seats. They'll likely overnight one or two as well. The gates are needed to accommodate all the airlines desired time slots in the morning and at the end of the day. They'll be empty most of the day.

 

Little Rock overnights at least two Southwest planes. Most stations overnights at least two. There's two gates that has to handle 150 passengers minimum if both stat at a gate overnight and most usually do.

 

XNA is already working on apron expansion for extra overnight room.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Architect]

3 hours ago, Wayward Memphian said:

XNA's advisors had predicted a doubling of passengers along with the population to around 2040-45 right before Covid hit. As posted within this thread, it as within overtaking LIT in a couple of years before Covid.  I think XNA's main thinking is that the new concourse will accommodate larger aircraft and the gates having the space to do it. Frontier is up to 3 destinations and they are flying in 180 seaters. Allegiant, same deal. Breeze has 100 to 115 seats and are getting 130 to 140 seaters starting this month.  More traffic may mean more mainline from the Legacies. These would be the planes that are the last in, overnight at the gate and first to leave.  If and when Southweat comes calling, every plane is at least 150 seats. They'll likely overnight one or two as well. The gates are needed to accommodate all the airlines desired time slots in the morning and at the end of the day. They'll be empty most of the day.
 
Little Rock overnights at least two Southwest planes. Most stations overnights at least two. There's two gates that has to handle 150 passengers minimum if both stat at a gate overnight and most usually do.
 
XNA is already working on apron expansion for extra overnight room.

I’m familiar with that report, and it’s statistically a compete aberration from the trend. NWA MSA percentage growth over the past 3 decades is trending down, not up:

1990-2000   325,364   46.2%   
2000-2010   440,121   35.3%   
2010-2020   546,725   24.2%   

To double in the next 20 years is quite nearly preposterous...it didn’t double in the last 20 years (rather it only increased about 70%).   The growth rate would have to tick up to over 40% for each of the next two decades.  I guess technically anything is possible, but literally no past or even current trends indicate that this would be the case.

But back on point related to passenger traffic, clearly NWA will continue to grow and air capacity will grow with it.  It will be interesting to see how quickly it recovers post-pandemic, especially compared to regional players like TUL and LIT.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wayward Memphian]

3 hours ago, Architect said:

I’m familiar with that report, and it’s statistically a compete aberration from the trend. NWA MSA percentage growth over the past 3 decades is trending down, not up:

1990-2000   325,364   46.2%   
2000-2010   440,121   35.3%   
2010-2020   546,725   24.2%   

To double in the next 20 years is quite nearly preposterous...it didn’t double in the last 20 years (rather it only increased about 70%).   The growth rate would have to tick up to over 40% for each of the next two decades.  I guess technically anything is possible, but literally no past or even current trends indicate that this would be the case.

But back on point related to passenger traffic, clearly NWA will continue to grow and air capacity will grow with it.  It will be interesting to see how quickly it recovers post-pandemic, especially compared to regional players like TUL and LIT.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If it grew by 70% over the next 25 years, that's well over 800K speaking in general terms. As a local speaking, it seems to be picking up steam again.  But... the study the airport seems to be using that i was referring to was this:

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2019/dec/15/xna-could-hit-2-8-million-enplanements-/

 

Calculations by Mead & Hunt, an airport development consulting firm, say passengers could surpass 1 million by 2021 and reach 2.88 million by 2040. Projections also say passengers could reach 936,139 by the end of this year.

Federal Aviation Administration forecasts anticipate XNA not breaking 1 million passengers until 2030 and being about 1.3 million by 2040. The FAA data anticipated 799,978 passengers this year, which has already been surpassed.

The Mead & Hunt study used data from this year as a base supplemented with historical growth trends at the airport, Federal Aviation Administration forecast data and socioeconomic data for the region, such as population growth and personal income growth.

Various scenarios were averaged for a growth figure of 4.1%.

If current projections are met, the average annual growth for the past two years will have been about 13.7%, according to the memo. The airport's plan, using 2012 as a base, projected an annual growth rate of 2.4% and a 2015 update projected average growth of 7.9% per year.

"These forecasts are going to be low again because we just can't get it right because you're doing so great," said Ryk Dunkelberg with Mead & Hunt. "These enplanements were done specifically for you all, and they're not going to the FAA." An enplanement is defined as one passenger boarding a commercial aircraft at the airport.

The memo notes current high levels of double-digit growth aren't likely to continue through the next 20 years at XNA, but it is likely passengers will continue to increase at a rate higher than the national average, so airport officials will have to continue scrambling to keep up.

"We think the Mead & Hunt projections seem realistic," said Aaron Burkes, chief executive officer at the airport. "We have obviously spent a great deal of time thinking about enplanement projections since that one variable accounts for such a significant part of our overall funding model."

The Mead & Hunt projections were done "in the best interests of the airport" not for FAA approval, Dunkelberg said. FAA approval of passenger projections as part of a master plan or environmental document is required to be eligible for federal money.

The information in the Mead & Hunt projections will be used by airport officials for internal planning of capital projects. The XNA board wants to trigger improvements based on certain target levels of passengers.

"The years are not important. What's important is when we reach that number of enplanements, and we could do it plus or minus four or five years with our forecast," Dunkelberg said. "What's important is the number of enplanements and then the facilities that are required to accommodate those numbers of enplanements."

Dunkelberg said if the numbers ever vary from actual by 10% or more, the projections should be refigured.

 

 

 

[Wayward Memphian]

Again, I think the drive for more gates is to give whichever airline a gate at whatever time they want it. XNA is not hamperer by flight timing restrictions. So, when an airline sez when can add this, at this time, they'll be a gate open. 

This is a snapshot of the final FAA enplanement figures for 2019.  As I have posted before,  XNA was again averaging  15 to 17% growth for the first 2 months of 2020 before Covid.  XNA was running down LIT fast.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Walls99]

After all this time, the return of non-stop service to New York has arrived. AA announced daily non-stop service to LGA beginning in November. The route will use the E175 aircraft. This will bring AA’s destinations out of LIT to seven! (DFW, ORD, CLT, MIA, DCA, PHX, and LGA) Meanwhile, Delta continues to underserve LIT with only one route! Unthinkable. 
 

http://clintonairport.com/airlines-flights/new-york-city/?fbclid=IwAR0VqhzaqYebgGQtsS4FKLfx-zZb3cQS0imDIg6_T3_JoxftKvSaFDykccQ&fs=e&s=cl

[theman]

13 hours ago, Walls99 said:

After all this time, the return of non-stop service to New York has arrived. AA announced daily non-stop service to LGA beginning in November. The route will use the E175 aircraft. This will bring AA’s destinations out of LIT to seven! (DFW, ORD, CLT, MIA, DCA, PHX, and LGA) Meanwhile, Delta continues to underserve LIT with only one route! Unthinkable. 
 

http://clintonairport.com/airlines-flights/new-york-city/?fbclid=IwAR0VqhzaqYebgGQtsS4FKLfx-zZb3cQS0imDIg6_T3_JoxftKvSaFDykccQ&fs=e&s=cl

Great news and you’re right about Delta. Every other airline serving Little Rock has multiple routes except for Delta. They used to fly to Detroit from Little Rock but I think that ended with the pandemic.  

[Architect]

On 5/27/2022 at 1:43 PM, Walls99 said:

After all this time, the return of non-stop service to New York has arrived. AA announced daily non-stop service to LGA beginning in November. The route will use the E175 aircraft. This will bring AA’s destinations out of LIT to seven! (DFW, ORD, CLT, MIA, DCA, PHX, and LGA) Meanwhile, Delta continues to underserve LIT with only one route! Unthinkable. 
 

http://clintonairport.com/airlines-flights/new-york-city/?fbclid=IwAR0VqhzaqYebgGQtsS4FKLfx-zZb3cQS0imDIg6_T3_JoxftKvSaFDykccQ&fs=e&s=cl

I cannot FATHOM, with the significant passenger load that Delta serves in Little Rock, that they don't diversify their destinations, especially Salt Lake City for connections west.  American is decimating them in this regard.

[Wayward Memphian]

On 6/12/2022 at 2:26 PM, Architect said:

I cannot FATHOM, with the significant passenger load that Delta serves in Little Rock, that they don't diversify their destinations, especially Salt Lake City for connections west.  American is decimating them in this regard.

Let's look at Delta like this.

 

They announced MEM/BOS right before the pandemic. During the pandemic they continued to sell nonstop tickets only to repeatedly push back the start. After over a year of this, they finally stopped selling tickets.  AA moved in and announced MEM/BOS service and it started a couple weeks back. Delta then reannounced MEM/BOS but it would not start till Oct of 22. They sold tickets for months, they cancelled the flight two weeks ago. AA now has the only MEM/BOS flight but not before Delta screwed others yet again.

The lack of flights from LIT and XNA to SLC is mind boggling. They insist on the ATL backtrack to go west.

[skirby]

It has been announced that Spirit is developing a a new crew base in Houston(IAH) for 150 pilots and 300 flight attendants. I wonder if Spirit will begin service to LIT sometimes in the near future?  This would be good for people wanting to take advantage of Spirit's expanding service to Mexico and the Caribbean.

[Architect]

21 hours ago, skirby said:

It has been announced that Spirit is developing a a new crew base in Houston(IAH) for 150 pilots and 300 flight attendants. I wonder if Spirit will begin service to LIT sometimes in the near future?  This would be good for people wanting to take advantage of Spirit's expanding service to Mexico and the Caribbean.

Spirit is pretty sparse in this area of the country...and so is Jet Blue, who just bought them.  If service is added, it will likely be a while.

[MDC26]

On 7/30/2022 at 9:37 AM, Architect said:

Spirit is pretty sparse in this area of the country...and so is Jet Blue, who just bought them.  If service is added, it will likely be a while.

DFW, ATL, Kansas City, New Orleans, Houston, Nashville, and Spirit recently added Memphis. 

[Wayward Memphian]

On 6/14/2021 at 9:56 AM, Architect said:

 

 

I believe I saw it on airliners.net (major worldwide airline forum), but it may have been a separate article I saw somewhere. My apology…I should have linked the source in the first place.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

I believe  it is a SATURDAY Only nonstop. This is the sad world of Southwest Airlines these days.

On 8/1/2022 at 11:34 PM, MDC26 said:

DFW, ATL, Kansas City, New Orleans, Houston, Nashville, and Spirit recently added Memphis. 

I would hold off on believing any Spirit plans at this point as it will take a year for the merger with JetBlue to either get approved or fall apart.

[Walls99]

Looking at the airport Wikipedia article (yes, I do that...don't judge) and noticed many route changes that I had not heard anything about previously. According to Wikipedia, Allegiant has canceled all routes out of LIT except for Orlando-Sanford, although it is being downgraded to seasonal. This means no more flights to Los Angeles, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach, and St. Petersburg-Clearwater. I also noticed that AA will be terminating the seasonal service to MIA in March, just a few months after it begins service to LGA. Can anyone confirm these changes?

[Architect]

4 hours ago, Walls99 said:

Looking at the airport Wikipedia article (yes, I do that...don't judge) and noticed many route changes that I had not heard anything about previously. According to Wikipedia, Allegiant has canceled all routes out of LIT except for Orlando-Sanford, although it is being downgraded to seasonal. This means no more flights to Los Angeles, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach, and St. Petersburg-Clearwater. I also noticed that AA will be terminating the seasonal service to MIA in March, just a few months after it begins service to LGA. Can anyone confirm these changes?

Strange, as the MIA flight was pretty full when we used it earlier this summer.

[theman]

Haven’t all of Allegient’s flights been seasonal except for the Orlando flight? 

[MDC26]

8 hours ago, theman said:

Haven’t all of Allegient’s flights been seasonal except for the Orlando flight? 

Pretty sure that LAX flight has been seasonal

[ndark]

On 9/15/2022 at 1:09 AM, theman said:

Haven’t all of Allegient’s flights been seasonal except for the Orlando flight? 

I took the Clearwater/St. Pete flight last year in October.  I think the others have been seasonal.  I was going to Clearwater again this October but not anymore I suppose.