Update.......Little Rock National Airport.

[Wayward Memphian]

For what it is worth, I meant the populatuon will nearly double, which puts it near Central Arkansas size.

But let's look at the results of the last full year pre covid while Central Ark holds a good sized population advantage still. 

LIT was 95th at 1,086,740  enplanements in 2019. 5.38% growth over 2018

XNA entered the top 100 at 99th with 891,237 enplanements.  17.40% growth over 2019 making it the second largest gain in the country.

That puts the difference between the two at 195,503. So, XNA with it's lack of  the Southwest effect punches well above it's weight. We know that has a lot to do with the Big 3 and the University but that provides a base. 

All things being considered looking at the previous years prior to 2019, XNA looked to overtake LIT in two years time pre covid. That would have meant most likely after 2021 numbers came in. That's all theory now with Covid.

Maybe it is because that NWA is just a bit outside of the drive to major vacation spots window. I point to frequencies of Allegiant's Destin flights as one. 4x weekly in peak summer season at XNA. LIT is still driving range for many.

So thinking is:

If XNA was already at 80% of LIT traffic and growing at 3 times the pace enplanement wise, why wouldn't a near doubling of population nearly double the amount of enplanements. Plus you have other small factors that play into it.  A completed I-49 may mean more traffic from SW Missouri(Joplin) in play especially if Southwest enters the market.  Same goes for Ft. Smith with an access road to the airport. Saves an 1hr than traveling to Tulsa plus, as is the case with Southwest Missouri, tolls as well. And... let's be honest, the demographics of the growth and the per capital income will play a role.

Back to the 3 that haven't got Southwest service yet, Madison, NWA and Knoxville.

Madison Wi and NWA are similar in that they have always been kinda considered out of a catchment of another airport. Madison with Milwaukee and NWA with Tulsa but both are more and more their own market and growing much quicker and with added value of above average per capital income with that growth. Knoxville has the Smoky Mountains and the Pigeon Forge area plus slower but steady growth of the city that is also anchored by a major state university. All three should be added post haste to Southwest's network.

 

 

[Wayward Memphian]

I just wanted to add these numbers as part of discussion in the two months before Covid slammed on the breaks on air travel in 2020 here are XNA's revenue enplanement numbers(non rev excluded) compared the previous year and it was eye-popping. They were continuing at the same rate of growth as before, if not more so, cause these are slower months.

Jan 2019= 54,315 / Jan 2020= 65,193

20% growth year over year

Feb 2019= 56,137 / Feb 2020=64,940

15.6% growth year over year. 

 

Little Rock was up 3.11% in Jan and 3.44% in Feb

LIT only reports total enplanements. That includes non revenue passengers as well so I looked up XNA's total with non revenue to compare. So...

Jan 2020

LIT 79,225

XNA 67306

Feb 2020

LIT 75,625 

XNA 67, 144 

I feel if 2020 had stayed normal, XNA would have been under 100k enplanements of LIT at the end of the year. 

 

At the end of 2020 the difference was 147,333 between the two.  XNA still gained on LIT in 2020 .

Edited March 5, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Architect]

Interesting observations Wayward...no doubt about it.  I guess my point is this:  LIT was also at one time (relatively recently) projected to hit 2 million enplanements annually (4 million total), as it was close to 1.3 million in the late 1990's.  The lesson here is that LOTS of things change and unanticipated factors come into play over that length of time (20 years).  For LIT, those unanticipated changes were mostly tied up in the sunset of the Wright Amendment (impacting traffic through LIT to DAL...which also affected TUL, OKC, etc), as well as MEM losing its hub-status, turning into a more cost-competitive O&D with direct competition with LIT (and MEM is certainly a bigger gorilla in relation to LIT than TUL is to XNA).  Furthermore, XNA is dominated by business travel, whose impact post-COVID is likely to be protracted given a complete rethink in corporate America about the need for face-face meetings.  Conversely, leisure travel is likely to rebound quicker, benefiting LIT.

Regardless, I think an argument could be made that both LIT and XNA punch above their weight compared to respective, similar metros.  Lets hope they both rebound quickly in 2021-2022!

p.s.  SWA's logic about XNA,  MSN (Madison) and TYS (Knoxville) is perplexing...they must know something we don't, and I suspect it has to do with the "cost" (siphoning off traffic from existing markets) outweighing the benefit (net gain in new market passengers) - at least for now.

[Wayward Memphian]

Southwest just added Bellingham WA, Eugene OR and Myrtle Beach to their destination list.

 

Still no Madison,  Knoxville or XNA.  Mind boggling.

[Architect]

On 3/8/2021 at 10:36 AM, Wayward Memphian said:

Southwest just added Bellingham WA, Eugene OR and Myrtle Beach to their destination list.

 

Still no Madison,  Knoxville or XNA.  Mind boggling.

That is mind-boggling.

By the way, Frontier's direct service from LIT to Las Vegas commenced this past Sunday, March 7.

[Arkanzin]

Looking at the "Where We Fly" map on Southwest's website, Knoxville sure looks like a prime location for expansion.  The nearest Southwest airport is Nashville (2 hours 45 minutes away), Atlanta (3 hours 45 minutes), or Greenville (3 hours).  It's not close to any SWA location.  

[Wayward Memphian]

XNA has submitted a grant proposal for 250K to help with low cost service via the Small Community Air Service Development Program. The one airline that submitted a letter in support was Breeze. That is the new start up by Jet Blue founder David Neeleman. 

 

The proposal is 33 pages long and lists many carriers and destinations that is a who's who of Allegiant stations.  Again, it seems to be Breeze is the primary target.  An example though is Sun Country and Minneapolis are both listed. That is easy to connect.

 

I post this as it's got lots of data on fares of serveral regional airports including LIT. 

 

XNA leakage is still near 20% with 10% to Tulsa which is surely mostly Southwest flyers. There around 2% leakage to DFW almost all international travel. Based on 2019 numbers thats nearly 200K in total with 90K to 100K leaking to Tulsa.

 

They got nearly 1 Million from this program in 2012 and wasn't able to use any of it somehow.

 

4th proposal down at this link. 33 page pdf

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2020-0231-0009

Edited March 19, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Architect]

2 hours ago, Wayward Memphian said:

XNA has submitted a grant proposal for 250K to help with low cost service via the Small Community Air Service Development Program. The one airline that submitted a letter in support was Breeze. That is the new start up by Jet Blue founder David Neeleman. 

 

The proposal is 33 pages long and lists many carriers and destinations that is a who's who of Allegiant stations.  Again, it seems to be Breeze is the primary target.  An example though is Sun Country and Minneapolis are both listed. That is easy to connect.

 

I post this as it's got lots of data on fares of serveral regional airports including LIT. 

 

XNA leakage is still near 20% with 10% to Tulsa which is surely mostly Southwest flyers. There around 2% leakage to DFW almost all international travel. Based on 2019 numbers thats nearly 200K in total with 90K to 100K leaking to Tulsa.

 

They got nearly 1 Million from this program in 2012 and wasn't able to use any of it somehow.

 

4th proposal down at this link. 33 page pdf

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2020-0231-0009

Admittedly, I didn't study this at length, but at a quick glance, it doesn't seem like XNA is THAT much more expensive than the other regional airports...like $40 more than LIT and $50 more than TUL (for a one-way fare).  I guess that can add up, but still...

[Wayward Memphian]

56 minutes ago, Architect said:

Admittedly, I didn't study this at length, but at a quick glance, it doesn't seem like XNA is THAT much more expensive than the other regional airports...like $40 more than LIT and $50 more than TUL (for a one-way fare).  I guess that can add up, but still...

It comes down to where they are truly flying to out of Tulsa to. Admittedly connecting via Southwest wasn't that cheap pre covid outside of the carry and check bags being free perks but directs to Vegas, Denver and Phoenix can be had on the cheap without baggage nickle and diming. Frontier connection timings are blanking horrible, that is basically a Den only flight for most.

The leakage has shrunk but it is still there in spite of a two hr drive plus fuel cost, tolls and parking. For a single person, that doesn't warrant it but for a family of 4... well now.

 

The fine print of the XNA service has it being announced in June/July, starting as early as Sept and no later than Dec with post launch marketing Dec onward. Odd timing for for a Florida route unless it was to MCO and The Mouse.  Fall Break and Winter break vacations. 

 

There are rumors that Breeze is looking at Lakeland but that isn't on the XNA list and neither is Orlando. Tampa and St Pete are.

Edited March 19, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Architect]

1 hour ago, Wayward Memphian said:

It comes down to where they are truly flying to out of Tulsa to. Admittedly connecting via Southwest wasn't that cheap pre covid outside of the carry and check bags being free perks but directs to Vegas, Denver and Phoenix can be had on the cheap without baggage nickle and diming. Frontier connection timings are blanking horrible, that is basically a Den only flight for most.

The leakage has shrunk but it is still there in spite of a two hr drive plus fuel cost, tolls and parking. For a single person, that doesn't warrant it but for a family of 4... well now.

 

The fine print of the XNA service has it being announced in June/July, starting as early as Sept and no later than Dec with post launch marketing Dec onward. Odd timing for for a Florida route unless it was to MCO and The Mouse.  Fall Break and Winter break vacations. 

 

There are rumors that Breeze is looking at Lakeland but that isn't on the XNA list and neither is Orlando. Tampa and St Pete are.

What is "Breeze"?  Never heard of it...

[Wayward Memphian]

7 hours ago, Architect said:

What is "Breeze"?  Never heard of it...

Breeze is the name of a new airline by David Neeleman, founder of Jet Blue and Azul( Brazil) and recently involves with TAP( Portugal).  He has private backing and has claimed in no hurry to go public. He has 60 A220-300s( former Bombardier C-Series) on order. They are fantastic planes with a 2x3 configuration. Delta also flys them(just not to Arkansas yet). They blow 737s, A319 and A320s away from a passenger and performance perspective. He does get his first till Oct and 1 a month there after. But to get going, he is leasing former Azul and Air Canada E-190s and E-195s that seat 100 to 115 passengers. The Air Canada birds were replaced with the A220s.  The lease rates are reportedly insanely cheap.  He and a former Allegiant route guru that's part of the team claim they have 500 routes that they can literally create demand for that have current PDEWs from 5 to 10. He claims there's giant viods directly connecting mid sized airports due to the consolidation in the industry. This will start out a 2x and 3x weekly frequencies much like other LCCs. He is claiming most everything will be done via app. He has a history success and is highly regarded in the industry and the employees of Jet Blue loved him and miss him.

 

Sez he needs 50 passengers to cover operational costs. Like I said, they'll hold at least 100 and the A220s will hold 130 to 140.

Here's an article.

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/breeze-david-neeleman-airline-dot-approval-start/

 

 

Here's review of what might be the closest layout out there for his A220s

 

https://onemileatatime.com/jetblue-a220/

Edited March 20, 2021 by Wayward Memphian

[Architect]

I'm not sure what Boeing's biggest blunder of the past 20 years has been...redesigning a 60 year old airframe and pitching it as a modern aircraft (737 Max), or fighting with Bombardier when they should have bought them...and now Airbus has ended up with a fantastic airplane in the A220 for pennies on the dollar.  HUGE strategic blunder.

[MDC26]

On 3/19/2021 at 8:29 AM, Wayward Memphian said:

XNA has submitted a grant proposal for 250K to help with low cost service via the Small Community Air Service Development Program. The one airline that submitted a letter in support was Breeze. That is the new start up by Jet Blue founder David Neeleman. 

 

The proposal is 33 pages long and lists many carriers and destinations that is a who's who of Allegiant stations.  Again, it seems to be Breeze is the primary target.  An example though is Sun Country and Minneapolis are both listed. That is easy to connect.

 

I post this as it's got lots of data on fares of serveral regional airports including LIT. 

 

XNA leakage is still near 20% with 10% to Tulsa which is surely mostly Southwest flyers. There around 2% leakage to DFW almost all international travel. Based on 2019 numbers thats nearly 200K in total with 90K to 100K leaking to Tulsa.

 

They got nearly 1 Million from this program in 2012 and wasn't able to use any of it somehow.

 

4th proposal down at this link. 33 page pdf

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2020-0231-0009

I recently talked to someone while in Disney that was from Bentonville.  They drove to KC to fly from there.  I'm sure there's some leakage to there as well as Little Rock.  Sometimes it not always about price, but rather times and dates.  

[Wayward Memphian]

19 hours ago, MDC26 said:

I recently talked to someone while in Disney that was from Bentonville.  They drove to KC to fly from there.  I'm sure there's some leakage to there as well as Little Rock.  Sometimes it not always about price, but rather times and dates.  

That sounds like a classic case of Southwest.

Likely $200 or lower R/T fare for a direct with zero connecting with kids and no luggage fees for carry on or check in which is usually a lot on a Disney trip especially families of 4 or more.

 

Could have been Spirit or Frontier as well. I guarantee the price was bottom dollar MCI has three aisles into MCO and Allegiant into Sanford. MCO is big.

 

 

 

[Wayward Memphian]

I have learned at some point in 2019 Memphis and Spirit was very close to a deal that would have seen them at over 20 flights a day. I would assume that they would have stationed planes there and have some limited connections. Something delayed it and then Covid happened.

Memphis should open their new B concourse and have all airlines consolidated to it by May. 

[Wayward Memphian]

LIT nor MEM made the first batch of Breeze flights. But... XNA did. Thur/Fri/Sun/Mon flights to New Orleans, Tampa and San Antonio. Some insanely cheap fares to be had right now. 

Cranky Flyer has a good break down on their cost structure but the Nicer package is an insanely good value.

[Architect]

LIT nor MEM made the first batch of Breeze flights. But... XNA did. Thur/Fri/Sun/Mon flights to New Orleans, Tampa and San Antonio. Some insanely cheap fares to be had right now. 
Cranky Flyer has a good break down on their cost structure but the Nicer package is an insanely good value.

Interesting. I suspect that decision had a lot to do with not going head-to-head with Southwest in LIT and MEM.


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[Wayward Memphian]

1 hour ago, Architect said:

Interesting. I suspect that decision had a lot to do with not going head-to-head with Southwest in LIT and MEM.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nope. They went to Louisville and Tulsa and OKC as well. TPA, SAT and MSY are big Southwest airports as well. They have plenty of birds coming. These first routes at 2hrs and under are gambling flown on E-190s and E-195s from Azul and Air Canada. He has 80 A223s on order with the first due in Oct. The leases rates for the Embraers are insanely low. 

There's more cities on the way.  

[Architect]

Nope. They went to Louisville and Tulsa and OKC as well. TPA, SAT and MSY are big Southwest airports as well. They have plenty of birds coming. These first routes at 2hrs and under are gambling flown on E-190s and E-195s from Azul and Air Canada. He has 80 A223s on order with the first due in Oct. The leases rates for the Embraers are insanely low. 
There's more cities on the way.  

True, there’s no way they could avoid SWA in every market. MEM and LIT are curious omissions, though I suspect - as you mention - expansion will happen quickly.

What’s your opinion on why they were skipped? There may be some other markets that were surprisingly overlooked as well. I’m sure equipment limitations are part of the equation.


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[Wayward Memphian]

11 minutes ago, Architect said:

True, there’s no way they could avoid SWA in every market. MEM and LIT are curious omissions, though I suspect - as you mention - expansion will happen quickly.

What’s your opinion on why they were skipped? There may be some other markets that were surprisingly overlooked as well. I’m sure equipment limitations are part of the equation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Routing issues and size. 

 

Memphis lowered their landing fees and rental fees today. 

 

I suspect you'll see the A223s in places like Memphis. It screams west coast routing. Allegiant is flying MEM-LAX/LAS 6 days a week a bunch these days. In fact theycarw flying MEM/LAX daily at this point for most of Dec 2021. 

[Wayward Memphian]

Allegiant hasn't taken kindly to Breeze at XNA

 

Adding PIE quickly  to answer XNA/TPA and adding FLL in the fall to head off additional Breeze route announcements at a time it starts receiving their new A223s.

 

Hopefully LIT gets in on this.

 

I got to say, the Breeze "Nicer" bundle is a great value. 

 

 

[Architect]

Allegiant hasn't taken kindly to Breeze at XNA
 
Adding PIE quickly  to answer XNA/TPA and adding FLL in the fall to head off additional Breeze route announcements at a time it starts receiving their new A223s.
 
Hopefully LIT gets in on this.
 
I got to say, the Breeze "Nicer" bundle is a great value. 
 
 

Honestly, I’d be a bit concerned about added competition for SWA. I want SWA to thrive, and in smaller markets like LIT (and XNA potentially), having Breeze doesn’t seem like a good thing if you’re wanting to make sure it’s a successful station for SWA. Of course if your only concern as a passenger is low price and high route options, more competition is better.


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[Architect]

Southwest announced that LIT-PHX is returning in November.

[Arkanzin]

On 6/11/2021 at 5:40 PM, Architect said:

Southwest announced that LIT-PHX is returning in November.

Hallelujah!  Been waiting for this!  

[Arkanzin]

On 6/11/2021 at 5:40 PM, Architect said:

Southwest announced that LIT-PHX is returning in November.

Not doubting you, but I cannot find any information on this.  SWA's website doesn't show nonstop in November or December.  

Edited June 14, 2021 by Arkanzin