Which of these smaller Southern metros will hit 1 million first?

[krazeeboi]

OK, since just about every nook and cranny of Florida is experiencing significant growth, I didn't include any of the Florida metros. Also, El Paso has a bi-national metro area population of at least a million, so that takes care of that. And while I'm not sure if there are official numbers on the number of Katrina evacuees that relocated to Baton Rouge, it was the first escape option, so I'm removing it from the revised list as well. So take your pick among the new choices. I used metro areas roughly between 500K-1M; I excluded the metros that were originally 1M+ but later broken up by the Census Bureau (e.g., Greenville, Spartanburg, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, etc.).

[NCB]

And while I'm not sure if there are official numbers on the number of Katrina evacuees that relocated to Baton Rouge, it was the first escape option, so I'm removing it from the revised list as well.

There aren't any official numbers, but the population of metro Baton Rouge is estimated to be somewhere around 900,000 right now, with over 300,000 in the city.

[DruidCity]

I voted Tulsa, because if I recall correctly, it already has a larger population than

most or all of the other choices.

[jmanhsv]

From that list, I would say Tulsa, with Columbia and Knoxville a close second and third.

By the way, I can name at least 4 cities from that list that Huntsville will probably beat to a million (A local planner last year predicted that the Huntsvile area will have 1,106,665 residents by 2030).

[swake]

The Tulsa CSA is something like 930,000 (2004 estimate), it's the largest city in the nation under a million right now, and the city alone thinks there are 30,000 to 50,000 illegals in the city of Tulsa that aren't counted much less the entire metro so Tulsa is just barely under a million today, give it a couple of years, literally, and Tulsa will be over.

[Spartan]

Well, then Tulsa will most likely be first from that list. Outside of that, I think Charleston will hit it first. Its coastal location gives it a distinct advantage over the others.

[krazeeboi]

The Tulsa CSA is something like 930,000 (2004 estimate), it's the largest city in the nation under a million right now, and the city alone thinks there are 30,000 to 50,000 illegals in the city of Tulsa that aren't counted much less the entire metro so Tulsa is just barely under a million today, give it a couple of years, literally, and Tulsa will be over.

The Tulsa CSA for 2005 was estimated at 936,864 and the 2004 MSA estimate was 881,815. Because Tulsa is closer to the one million mark than the other metros, at first I wasn't going to list it. But the metro area hasn't been growing as fast as some of the others on this list, so it may be possible that another metro area could catch up with it and pass it, so I listed it. Also, it may be possible that the metro area could get split.

[nashvol85]

If Knoxville's metro could expand and include fast-growing Sevier county (already in the CSA), then it would really help Knoxville's cause. The CSA is already in the 825,000 plus range, and the county is growing at a decent rate. Unfortunately the rest of the area around it has slowed a lot from development except for around lakes and recreation areas.

[swake]

The Tulsa CSA for 2005 was estimated at 936,864 and the 2004 MSA estimate was 881,815. Because Tulsa is closer to the one million mark than the other metros, at first I wasn't going to list it. But the metro area hasn't been growing as fast as some of the others on this list, so it may be possible that another metro area could catch up with it and pass it, so I listed it. Also, it may be possible that the metro area could get split.

Split? How? The only other "large" city in the metro is Broken Arrow at around 100,000 people or just over, but it's mostly in Tulsa county and is surrounded directly by Tulsa on two sides.

Bartlesville could be taken out of the CSA, but it is just as likely (or more likely really) that Muskogee will be added to the Tulsa CSA, which by itself would put Tulsa over a million. Muskogee is struggling with jobs growth and becomes more and more dependant on Tulsa/Broken Arrow for jobs (the booming burb of Broken Arrow lies between Tulsa and Muskogee) while the nothern section of metro Tulsa booms in towns like Owasso and Claremore and growth moves closer and closer to Bartlesville. Bartlesville itself is booming, growing faster over the last year or two than it has in 30 or 40 years with Conoco-Phillips moving much of it's operations to the town from Houston.

And while Tulsa's growth was lagging early this decade with the hightech/telecom/aerospace meltdowns The metro is growing at a good rate again. Almost all the growth from 2000 to 2004 was in 2003 to 2004 and the last year and a half have been even better with unemployment between 4% and 4.5% due to strong growth in energy, tech and now aerospace. Tulsa had a bad three years, but that's over. And the influx of hispanic immigrants over the last five years is nothing short of stunning. there are now two or three hispanic dominated areas in the city of Tulsa when five or six years ago there weren't any.

Tulsa's CSA is probably over a million now, it's MSA will probably hit the mark in the next 5 to 10 years.

[Spartan]

Columbia's CSA is 716,665.

[Charleston native]

Voted for my hometown (again). The coast of SC is expected to gain the largest with more people wanting to live near the coast. Chas is the central, most well-known city on the coast as well as the largest. It also has alot of buzz surrounding it...much like the boom towns of Charlotte, Raleigh, and Atlanta had when they started booming.

[Aporkalypse]

Tulsa, because it's so close already.

[krazeeboi]

From looking at stats here, it shows that Tulsa has had the lowest growth rate of all metros listed from 2000-2005 and from 2004-2005, while Knoxville, Columbia, and Charleston have had the highest growth rates in both periods. Will they be enough to overtake Tulsa if current trends hold? Don't have time to do the math, but it would appear that Knoxville and Columbia would be the most likely candidates.

[monsoon]

So is this a question of city size, MSA or CSA size?

[krazeeboi]

I'm prone to go with MSA size here, since all cities listed here don't have a CSA.

[Mith242]

From looking at stats here, it shows that Tulsa has had the lowest growth rate of all metros listed from 2000-2005 and from 2004-2005, while Knoxville, Columbia, and Charleston have had the highest growth rates in both periods. Will they be enough to overtake Tulsa if current trends hold? Don't have time to do the math, but it would appear that Knoxville and Columbia would be the most likely candidates.

I'd agree on the slower growth in Tulsa. I've heard a lot about how the economy is in the duldroms there. Not sure if it will keep it from hitting it first out of the list though.

[codyg1985]

From that list, I would say Tulsa, with Columbia and Knoxville a close second and third.

By the way, I can name at least 4 cities from that list that Huntsville will probably beat to a million (A local planner last year predicted that the Huntsvile area will have 1,106,665 residents by 2030).

That will happen if Huntsville MSA adds some more counties (Lincoln, Jackson, Marshall), Huntsville MSA and Decatur MSA officially become one MSA, and/or the growth accelerates as a result of the BRAC jobs coming to the Rocket City.

[jmanhsv]

^Exactly. And its very likely that all of these things will happen in the next 15 years.