Could Cecil Field reopen as a Navy Air Station?

[jeafl]

I know what an MSA is any MSA always has more population than any single city within them.

But, if the number of people you have to sell tickets to goes up (an MSA versus a city within the MSA), the percentage of those people who buy tickets will go down.

If x > y and you sell z tickets, then [(z/x) x 100] > [(z/y) x 100].

Have you ever heard of MSA's??  Jacksonville now has the third smallest MSA of any city in the NFL (after Green Bay and Buffalo).  And Green Bay and Buffalo both have other large metros nearby (Milwaukee and Rochester respectively).  Your analysis is really all wet.  Using the MSA population numbers, Jacksonville is one of the highest per capita supporters of their NFL team.

EDIT:  I didnt see Captain's response which is similar to mine before I posted, but the flaws in jeafl's logic are indeed Obvious.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[jeafl]

Also, having a winning record does not grant a team to the playoffs.  You just proved once again on just how little you understand NFL policy.  Please refrain from further discourse on this subject matter as you can only worsen your already deteriorating image.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Am I right in thinking that whether or not a team goes to the playoffs is determined by their combination of winning games and points scored within the games? If so, it only means that the Jaguars' margin of victory is smaller than their margin of defeat. The Jaguars score less often than the other teams do. So, like I have been saying, the Jaguars are not a good team.

[jeafl]

Personally, I dont care either way about football, but I understand the economics of it. Even though it may look bad on the surface, Jaguars are doing realy well as team in terms of Local Support. We really are doing very well as a football city. All you have to do is Look at the numbers...

But mroe than that, look at the numbers with respect to every other NFL team...

Whether or not they move will not hinge on that aspect  i dont think . Furthermore, loosing the Jags will be a serious blow to Jax. I may not be a big Football person, but I understand the importance of keeping them here. and will support them when I can.. 

Anyway, jsut wanted to throw in my two cents

Josh

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't care about football either, and I likewise understand the economics behind the team:

How good would the local support be if you took away the taxpayer funded stadium and the corporate purchase of season tickets that stuck with the team to begin with? And what happens when you factor in things like Jacksonville's poor drainage, under-stocked and under-staffed public libraries, a courthouse that cannot be built because we cannot afford it, and everything else the money that is used to build and maintain the stadium could be otherwise used for?

[Viper]

You simply don't get it.

Tax base has nothing to do with attendence. Are you trying to tell us that citizens in OP can't go to the game because they didn't help pay for it?

What about those that moved in after the stadium was built?

Why do you think blackouts extend for 75 miles?

Playoffs are filled by the top team in each division plus a few wildcard slots.

I won't get into the complicated process of determinig wildcards since you can't grasp the basics here.

By your logic, what's the deal with state named teams like Tennessee? The NY Jets and NY Giants don't even play in the state of NY. The New England Patriots don't play in Boston.

[bobliocatt]

....and the Dolphins don't play in Miami. Their stadium is right on the Miami-Dade/Broward County line and halfway between Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

[Viper]

jeafl, please let the now incredibly off topic conversation go unless you wish to create a new thread in its regards. However, I thin we've proven beyond doubt the Jaguars are more financially successful and an overall better team than your opinons lead you to believe.

As for Cecil. Any figures on the economic impact it will have versus what the commerce center brings in?

[jeafl]

You simply don't get it.

Tax base has nothing to do with attendence.  Are you trying to tell us that citizens in OP can't go to the game because they didn't help pay for it?

No, I am saying that the people of Jacksonville have to pay for the Jaguars whether they want to or not because their tax money is used to subsidize the team. Why is it that you cannot understand such a simple fact?

Playoffs are filled by the top team in each division plus a few wildcard slots.

I won't get into the complicated process of determinig wildcards since you can't grasp the basics here.

Like I said, whether or not a team goes to the playoffs depends on how many games they win and by how well they play overall. If the Jaguars do not go to the playoffs for a season, it means they were not among the best teams for that season. And since the Jaguars have been in the playoffs only 4 times it means they have been a less than stellar team 60% of the time. They are a failed team.

By your logic, what's the deal with state named teams like Tennessee?  The NY Jets and NY Giants don't even play in the state of NY.  The New England Patriots don't play in Boston.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then try selling tickets to the entire state. The more people you have to sell tickets to, the lower the percentage of people who actually buys tickets will be. Again, this is simple arithmetic and it looks likes your grasp of arithmetic is as good as your grasp of spelling.

[jeafl]

jeafl, please let the now incredibly off topic conversation go unless you wish to create a new thread in its regards.  However, I thin we've proven beyond doubt the Jaguars are more financially successful and an overall better team than your opinons lead you to believe.

As for Cecil.  Any figures on the economic impact it will have versus what the commerce center brings in?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You seem to think a successful NFL team can have a home game blackout 20% of the time and winning seasons only 50% of the time. You also think that it is a good thing for an NFL team to stay out of the 60% of the time. And you don

[bobliocatt]

No, I am saying that the people of Jacksonville have to pay for the Jaguars whether they want to or not because their tax money is used to subsidize the team.  Why is it that you cannot understand such a simple fact?

Like I said, whether or not a team goes to the playoffs depends on how many games they win and by how well they play overall.  If the Jaguars do not go to the playoffs for a season, it means they were not among the best teams for that season.  And since the Jaguars have been in the playoffs only 4 times it means they have been a less than stellar team 60% of the time. They are a failed team.

Then try selling tickets to the entire state.  The more people you have to sell tickets to, the lower the percentage of people who actually buys tickets will be.  Again, this is simple arithmetic and it looks likes your grasp of arithmetic is as good as your grasp of spelling.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I fail to see the point you're trying to make, but since Jax's attendance numbers are actually higher than more than half of the NFL's 32 teams, am I right to assume that everyone under Jax, in the league (including Philly, New England, Tampa & Dallas) is a failure as well?

[vicupstate]

Concerning Cecil...

Item 1:

This is from a Business Journal article on a city ordinance that has been proposed. The proposed ordinance bans loan rates above 36% and puts other limitations on "payday" loans to members of the military:

With two Navy bases, a Marine Corps command and National Guard and Reserve units, Jacksonville is a prime breeding ground for payday lenders to proliferate, industry critics say.

Duval County ranks first overall in Florida for payday lending, according to the study, with 77 payday loan offices. By contrast, the county has 46 McDonald's restaurants.

The nation's largest payday loan company, Advance America, Cash Advance Centers Inc., has seven offices within a five-mile radius of the Naval Air Station Jacksonville main gate -- one fewer location than McDonald's. There are 24 Advance America offices within 20 miles of NAS Jacksonville.

"It's no coincidence that Duval County has the highest concentration of payday lenders relative to the population than any county in the state," said Chris Peterson, the UF assistant law professor who conducted the study.

Item 2:

These are quotes from the Karen Mathis article on the availability of industrial sites with Cecil in limbo:

On a larger scale, without city-owned Cecil, there would be no huge "mega-site" of free Jacksonville land to hand out to the likes of an auto manufacturer or semiconductor plant.

When it comes to those big deals, the area has few mega-sites to offer. A mega-site consists of at least 500 contiguous acres. It must have services and utilities or be able to hook up quickly.

Item 3:

Quote of Jerry Mallot, executive director of Cornerstone, the Jacksonville Regional Chamber of Commerce's economic development arm. Source: TU article on Cecil:

"Frankly, it comes at a good time," he said. "This is a one-time opportunity for the Navy to take Cecil. If it didn't occur now, I'm certain that in just a few years, private development would make it impossible."

My concerns about noise are only 4th or 5th on my list of potential downsides to Cecil reopening.

These items reinforce my belief that Jax is giving away one of the best industrial sites in the Southeast in exchange for low-paying jobs, while at the same time eliminating the possibility of converting the base to a taxable use, and putting a $50mm hole in the city's budget. Conversely, to continue on the city's previous path, the base would attract new development anyway, even if a mega-project didn't land there.

Can someone please give me a solid reason that Jax should be pursuing this? I pray that VA can hold on to Oceana, although that seems unlikely IMO.

[asonj23]

The main positive is the "sure thing" of adding thousands of new residents to Jacksonville versus the dream of adding a possible mega-project some time inthe future.

You do, however, make some very valid points and the more I read your research and argument the more I see this to be a possible negative for Jax in the long run.

[bobliocatt]

Concerning Cecil...

Item 1:

This is from a Business Journal article on a city ordinance that has been proposed.

[vicupstate]

On #2: I thought getting a Nuclear carrier would merely allow Mayport to remain open, not necessarily augment it's staffing. My haven't followed that very closely though.

On #4: Didn't all of those companies come to Jax after Cecil left? Primarily because the closed base made an excellent location? Having lived in cities that had Military bases (Myrtle Beach and Columbia), I haven't heard of industry specifically looking for military towns to locate in, but maybe it was related to their respective missions.

On #5: 500 acres is too small for a mega-project. The Savannah site picked (but later abandoned) by Chrysler was over 1,000 acres, if I'm not mistaken. SC's site for them was close to 1,000 if I remember correctly. The BMW plant site here is over 1,000 acres. Only sites that have sufficient capacities (water, sewer, traffic, rail, air, natural gas,etc.) already in place, or at a minimum very-soon-to-be-in-place will be considered. One reason Cecil lost out in earlier efforts was due to the lack of a four-lane connection to an Interstate, even though widening is planned. The competition for these projects is very fierce with the respective Governors being directly involved. Florida is at disadvantage in one respect because it's environmental regulations are more stringent than other states. I assume this wouldn't be any issue at Cecil since it has already made the short list twice. Florida has a distinct advantage for the next auto plant simply because it does not already have one. Except for Alabama, no southern state has more than one. Foreign automakers like to be the only one in the state they pick, and they love the non-unionized South. With it's port and two interstates, Jax is a natural choice, but the site MUST to be up to par, without Cecil, there simply isn't one.

Like you, I want to see some hard data on this thing. If the wages are significantly higher than the Jax average, I could support the re-opening. However, my experience is that military bases tend to be in cities that have let else going for them.

[bobliocatt]

On #2:

[Viper]

Mayport NS was never in danger of being closed to begin with. The decommissioning of the Kennedy doesn't devalue the base enough for closure.

The point of upgrading mayport to nuclear is because all our remaining carriers are nuclear and the Navy doesn't want it's entire East Coast Carrier Fleet in one base, Norfolk NS.

Going Nuclear would increase Mayport NS staffing (carrier and support) by a few thousand.

[jeafl]

I fail to see the point you're trying to make, but since Jax's attendance numbers are actually higher than more than half of the NFL's 32 teams, am I right to assume that everyone under Jax, in the league (including Philly, New England, Tampa & Dallas) is a failure as well?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And still you do not get it. I have to pay for the Jaguars with my tax money even though I despise football. How is that right? I have to subsidize a team whose games I could not afford to attend even if I wanted to.

And while the Jaguars may have what you call "good" attendance figures, you fail to understand that that attendance comes from a very small segment of the population.

[rusthebuss]

Mayport NS was never in danger of being closed to begin with.  The decommissioning of the Kennedy doesn't devalue the base enough for closure.

The point of upgrading mayport to nuclear is because all our remaining carriers are nuclear and the Navy doesn't want it's entire East Coast Carrier Fleet in one base, Norfolk NS.

Going Nuclear would increase Mayport NS staffing (carrier and support) by a few thousand.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leave our carriers alone! You can have the jets but leave the carriers alone!

[jeafl]

The main positive is the "sure thing" of adding thousands of new residents to Jacksonville versus the dream of adding a possible mega-project some time inthe future.

You do, however, make some very valid points and the more I read your research and argument the more I see this to be a possible negative for Jax in the long run.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why worry about adding thousands to the city's population when we have a public transit system that does not work, schools that are overcrowded and streets that do not drain when it rains?

[Viper]

You are by far the biggest Jax hater I've ever seen.

*sigh* here we go.

And still you do not get it. I have to pay for the Jaguars with my tax money even though I despise football. How is that right? I have to subsidize a team whose games I could not afford to attend even if I wanted to.

And while the Jaguars may have what you call "good" attendance figures, you fail to understand that that attendance comes from a very small segment of the population.

With an conomic impact of well over $100 million per year and the city gaining revenue from several aspects of having an NFL team that goes toward paying for every face of city provided facilities, transportation, utilities and more, it's well worth the $0.009 cents per day that you pay.

What does the price of tea in China have to do with what segment of the population fills the stadium?

Why worry about adding thousands to the city's population when we have a public transit system that does not work, schools that are overcrowded and streets that do not drain when it rains?

Because the tax base and first year economic impact of $1.2 billion dollars goes a long way fixing any of those. You generalize worse than anyone I know.

Leave our carriers alone! You can have the jets but leave the carriers alone!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry, but that is the Navy wanting all this. Besides, you have how many? 5-6?

[bobliocatt]

And still you do not get it.  I have to pay for the Jaguars with my tax money even though I despise football.  How is that right? I have to subsidize a team whose games I could not afford to attend even if I wanted to.

We do a lot of things we don't like, for the general good of our community. Childless people still pay for schools, tax paying smokers can't smoke in public restaurants, I'm an urbanist, but I'm still forced to pay to support suburban development that competes against the revitalization of the city. That's life in America.

And while the Jaguars may have what you call "good" attendance figures, you fail to understand that that attendance comes from a very small segment of the population.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And how is this unique or different from any other professional sports organization? Every team's attendance in this country comes from a very small segment of the local or regional population. Can you name and provide proof of any that are supported attendance wise, by a majority of the population?

[jeafl]

You are by far the biggest Jax hater I've ever seen.

*sigh* here we go.

With an conomic impact of well over $100 million per year and the city gaining revenue from several aspects of having an NFL team that goes toward paying for every face of city provided facilities, transportation, utilities and more, it's well worth the $0.009 cents per day that you pay.

Then explain how and why cities such as Charlotte, with populations smaller than Jacksonville, have NFL stadiums that are privately owned. The Panthers are profitable enough to surivive without taxpayer support, the Jaguars are not.

BTW: how do I benefit from this $100 million a year economic impact? Do I have better roads or a better library because of it? Does my neighborhood have poor drainage because the city has all this Jaguars money to spend? Do we have better public schools because of it? And what about the city's bus service? And with all this money coming in from the NFL you wouldn't think JEA would need so many rate hikes.

[jeafl]

We do a lot of things we don't like, for the general good of our community.  Childless people still pay for schools, tax paying smokers can't smoke in public restaurants, I'm an urbanist, but I'm still forced to pay to support suburban development that competes against the revitalization of the city.  That's life in America.

How does an NFL team that is a consant drain on tax revenue benefit the entire community? Tell me what all the money the NFL generates here is spent on.

[bobliocatt]

A couple of ways an NFL team benefits the community.

1. It gives us free press and national tv coverage, which has enhanced our image since 1995, from a backwater smelly city, into a budding metropolis. A better national image indirectly leads to more economic development activity.

2. Its directly associated with the city (stadium won't be as attractive as it is without an NFL team) attracting the ACC championship game and the recent Super Bowl.

3. Events in an improved Alltel Stadium bring in large amounts of visitors who stay in our hotel, eat at our restuarants, shop at our malls and buy gas at our gas stations.

4. Professional sports add to the entertainment offerings and quality of life in the city's they're played in, including Jacksonville.

Those are four ways of how having a local NFL team has benefitted our region. If these sports teams are such a plague on our society, then why are they so coveted by America's major cities?

[Captain Obvious]

BTW: how do I benefit from this $100 million a year economic impact?  Do I have better roads or a better library because of it?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, technically, yes you do. Just from a sales tax standpoint, that translates into about $7million per year added to the state & city budgets. $500k per year would be specifically added to BJP funds ... or between $15-$20 million over the life of the BJP, thus aproximately .75%-1% of the total BJP cost theoretically funded by the economic impact of the Jags alone. And I don't even know if that includes the sales tax that the Jagshave to pay, or if the 100 million is just pure economic activity generated for third parties.

I don't really know if that's a good deal or not. I didn't really pay any attention to how much the city subsidizes the Jags. What are those numbers?

[vicupstate]

Then explain how and why cities such as Charlotte, with populations smaller than Jacksonville, have NFL stadiums that are privately owned.