Affordable Housing in Charlotte

[davidclt]

Interesting new index out from The Economist ". . . Carrie Bradshaw Index" (Tampa is a step up, Atlanta a step down). New York is the left, Wichita, Ks to the right.

Our Carrie Bradshaw index: Where Americans can afford to live solo (economist.com)

 

Winston-Salem wins on affordability:

 

Raleigh is mid-high:

[davidclt]

On 8/5/2023 at 10:36 PM, davidclt said:

Interesting new index out from The Economist ". . . Carrie Bradshaw Index" (Tampa is a step up, Atlanta a step down). New York is the left, Wichita, Ks to the right.

Our Carrie Bradshaw index: Where Americans can afford to live solo (economist.com)

Today, the Economist covered this in The Intelligence: https://pca.st/episode/9653dcac-416c-491c-ba26-c493dc1adb1b?t=1070

"take for example Charlotte in North Carolina" (made me whimper)

Edited August 15, 2023 by davidclt
Updated timestamp in URL

[kermit]

Or from the tenants perspective: “growing probability of affordable supply increasing”

 

[davidclt]

Interesting,  interactive feature from the NY Times about Bradfield Farms: What Happens When Wall Street Buys Most of the Homes on Your Block? - The New York Times (nytimes.com) (wondering if this doesn't belong in the Bad News Report thread?)

[15895]

On 8/17/2023 at 12:02 PM, kermit said:

Or from the tenants perspective: “growing probability of affordable supply increasing”

 

Philadelphia is sort of surprising to me in that graph given how urban it is and still have that high of a percentage increase. Anyway, let me not get distracted…

The one thing that might put a little more fuel on the fire for the southeast is the giant demand in California for more housing in their large cities and….. insurance. Insurance is killing Califórnia right now. 

A lot of people think Lenders are tightening up, etc but 2023 is a record year. The business model for apartments/Multifamily has drastically changed in the last couple decades (really driven IMO by millennials and now Gen Z). Americans, the newer generations, seem to be more into urban living than previous ones. Not only that, there’s just a new industry standard started in 2008 mostly by Freddie Mac with other Lenders even now starting to revert to Freddie’s model; CMBS securitizations. I know some major Lender’s are aggressively changing their lending to the securitization model as a way to increase volume of originations. Lenders are capped in how much we can lend (caps, stress test, etc) so by securitizing more, we get those loans off our books so we can lend even more. 
 

What’s really hurting some Lender’s in California though is Insurance premiums. Lenders, Government housing authorities etc. are trying to combat astronomically sky high insurance premiums in California (with all the natural disasters (wildfires on top of seismic risk) in CA and overall US). Multifamily lending is really complicated. There are industry wide guidelines that say Fannie or Freddie just won’t budge on. There’s so many ways our models work that doesn’t budge on insurance and borrowers are just struggling with it. 
 

CA recently issued an executive order on shoring up the insurance market in CA. Statefarm and All State Will not even be issuing any new insurance policies in CA this year. CA will also be drastically increasing their FAIR plan which aims to provide insurance subsidies to California’s that through no fault of their own can’t get insurance policies or have policies that are so crazy it makes no sense. So that’s going to free up some lending for the southeast (which lenders actually from what I see prefer (1) large urban cities (2) Affordable Housing with tax credits (3) tall expensive highrises in the sunbelts [they seem to prefer larger loans over smaller ones. And of course government money]
 

I think California will live up to its gold mining nicknames once things stabilize which I believe is through no fault of California that they couldn’t have planned for. It’s natural disasters and I have confidence they’ll get through it, make new laws that make more sense. There are even further laws (like what NYC is proposing with their City of Yes policy which IMO will be best in the nation or North America) that could bring California from the 90’s/00’s to the late 10’s and 20’s but really if just the insurance market improves (which it will), CA is positioned to be *amazing* IMO. 

I think year by year, there is a cultural shift to urban living. Not just in Austin etc but even the large urban ones rapidly densifying. I’m excited for the USA tbh. 
 

All that to say, I think money will flow to the southeast for units like those near North Lake Mall due to natural disasters F-ing up insurance premiums in CA. Temporary, but lenders gotta lend. 

[videtur quam contuor]

Visited Jimmy and Roslyn Carter Habitat project at former Price school site off West Boulevard. Site is semi secure. No activity today and I respected the security.

 

 

Dream Makers

\

If you know these businesses or people who work there you can thank them

 

 

[kermit]

There is an outstanding twotter thread here: https://x.com/al_xrated/status/1727667615856816453?s=61 that explains how Minneapolis managed to get rents to decline more than other cities which also liberalized zoning (e.g. the UDO, removing parking minimums, removing exclusionary zoning etc.).

The thread suggests that zoning liberalization accomplishes little in the absence of transit and other alternative mobility options. Cities like Nashville eliminated parking minimums four years ago, but people must still drive due to the lack of alternatives, so lots of parking continues to get built which increases sprawl and rents. In Minneapolis, there is enough mobility that going car free/light is feasible and people are choosing properties that allow the to do that. (More supporting data in thread)

seems like the lesson here for Charlotte is clear. More alternative mobility = improved housing affordability. Once again Silver Line delays are costing all of us money.

 

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by kermit

[Windsurfer]

Isn't Minneapolis losing population ?  Seems like that'd have a huge effect on rent.

[kermit]

6 hours ago, Windsurfer said:

Isn't Minneapolis losing population ?  Seems like that'd have a huge effect on rent.

Minneapolis is losing pop marginally  (and against historic trend), but its population change is not significantly different than the other cities in the chart  that are experiencing rent increases (second pink chart in my post). Don’t forget that the pandemic had the effect of decreasing HH size and increasing formation — and that is largely what is causing rent increases in those other cities.

Minneapolis is the top line in the population chart below. The bottom group is Columbus, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Kansas City (Omaha had the same trend but much smaller total size).  

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by kermit

[KJHburg]

I see the new housing per 1000 person as the most important statistic.  More supply will moderate and stabilize rent pricing.  (this is about to happen in Charlotte)  But our population is growing much faster than Minneapolis.  So we need to keep up with that.  As for transit not sure where I see you have to only build light rail to achieve any kind of reduced car dependency.  There are other options like Bus Rapid Transit which seems to be forgotten around here while other large cities are expanding use of it Atlanta, Houston, Austin's new revised plan, and why is more of that not being talked about here? 

Show me the data there how there are so many less private vehicles per person in Minneapolis versus Charlotte.    

Affordable housing needs are off the chart all over the US and Charlotte is no expection.  But most of the most expensive cities to live in the USA have much better transit options than Charlotte,   And their rents are a lot higher!  Like Boston, NY, DC, Chicago, Seattle, San Fran etc all much higher rents than us but better transit.  

Edited November 24, 2023 by KJHburg

[kermit]

6 hours ago, KJHburg said:

 As for transit not sure where I see you have to only build light rail to achieve any kind of reduced car dependency. 

No one said this. The thread spoke to non-car alternatives and specifically mentioned things like walkability and bikeability as things that enabled less auto dependence. The conclusion was basically that reducing parking minimums achieves nothing when its done in sprawl, but it does successfully reduce housing costs where there is walkability.

Census data on car ownership lags, its still too early to pick up any signs of a post pandemic shift.

Edited November 24, 2023 by kermit

[15895]

Talking about anything besides articles where Charlotte is best for business is like trying to talk to your flat-earther uncle about whether the earth is a globe or a flat surface. 

There are so many factors in these conversations, it’s not an easy answer and quite frankly, it’s much much harder to explain in-depth rather than bumper sticker yes/no, black/white 1 sentence logic. 

I’m not taking the time to find most up to date info or dig deeply because I know people are just wanting a blog of Charlotte population growth & best for business but:

$430 like seems very low after car payment (assuming one has one), Gas, Insurance, Taxes+Fees, Maintenance.  Then when you multiple that by 2 or 3 depending on people in your household. 

 

I never met someone in Charlotte who makes my salary and saves more money than I do. They have big homes (even hire people to do yard work) and a lot of them have cars that are expensive af (Teslas, SUV’s etc), they usually have 2 per household at least and often times buy their kids a car… but just focusing on a 2 car household. Thats at least $800 if not more likely in central Charlotte $1,300 given the income levels… vs. my subsidized (by my company and many employers even in Charlotte subsidize mass transit passes) and my partner also having subsidized transit. The transit alone has a huge impact on living cost. Even my friends in the suburbs here. Their home is a castle. They have a literal spare Jeep just for spare weather. 3 floors. They’re not saving more money. They’re just spending it on more room…(and they literally have multiple sitting rooms, one they have no idea what to do with. They have a movie theatre room. Etc)

Then there’s other things. Those cities often have very generous households subsidies and invest heavily into low income housing. My partner made 1/2 what I did & he lived 2 blocks away and his rent for a bigger space than mine was $1,400 month (and includes utilities). 

Then there’s thing like wages… Minimum wage in Charlotte is $7.25. It’s literally less than half of the cities mentioned….

DC is $17.25 / NYC $16 / San Francisco $18 / Boston $15 / Seattle $19.97 / Minneapolis $15.19

That’s not even counting all the other programs they have. Tonsss of housing vouchers even for “normal” people. You can get a free Masters Degree, free Bachelor’s degree. You can get money for a down payment on a house. Free healthcare. I don’t qualify for hardly any & I pay a lot in taxes but I like living in a society where government has these programs. It makes my quality of life go up when broader society is doing well. 

I’m not saying those areas don’t have issues or claiming one area is better than another. Just mentioning factors that go beyond price per sq. Ft. of dwelling. 

Minneapolis  is definitely doing something extraordinary and a lot of eyeballs are on the policies it implemented and a lot of areas are trying to replicate that success within context of their respective areas. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by AirNostrumMAD

[kayman]

Corporate landlords reduce homeownership in Black Charlotte neighborhoods, study says

Quote

The study shows that nearly 80% of the homes purchased by large corporate landlords were located in these neighborhoods.

The research also found that purchases by institutional investors led to a decline in property values, decreased political participation, more nuisance code violations and an uptick in crime. As a share of housing built by 2011, homeownership overall dropped about 2 percentage points due to corporate homebuying, researchers found. But homeownership in Black neighborhoods specifically dropped by about 4 points, equivalent to the decline during the collapse of the housing market in 2008. “This is a big deal if you think about homeownership — that it had virtually the same changes as we saw in what was a serious and major economic recession that led to lots of people losing their homes,” said Stephen Billings, associate professor of real estate at the University of Colorado-Boulder and one of the working paper’s co-authors.

Proof that this corporate investment mass purchases of new housing stock is all connected to decrease in black homeownership rates and overall reduction in political participation in Charlotte.  It kind of makes sense because I know several young, highly educated, black professionals and entrepreneurs that have relocated here that have no civic awareness of the City of Charlotte political processes or elected officials representing them on the Mecklenburg County Board of Commissioners, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education, NC State Senate, NC House of Representatives, or US House of Representatives in the US Congress. 

Yeah, the working paper referred to in this article is all point to a form of systemic racism is making sure Charlotte stays warped and lower morale on homeownership, generational wealth creation from homeownership amongst black citizens, displacement, and civic participation within the rapidly growing black population in Greater Charlotte.   These corporate investors are blockading black homeownership when the local black population is growing at an explosive rapid due to employment mobility and entrepreneurial opportunities are present and expanding in Charlotte.  Relegating these potential homeowners to being renters, who have no real investment to the areas nor sense of community where they reside in temporary residential housing awaiting opportunities to purchase a home potentially in another area.

The funny externality that will result will be the similar phenomenon that has been and continuously occurring in Metro Atlanta, Greater Houston, and the DMV (Washington DC metro) of black homeownership rapidly expanding in the suburban counties in the Metro Charlotte area on the North Carolina side as well as the 3 South Carolina counties of York, Lancaster, and Chester. 

Corporate landlords drove down Charlotte-area homeownership _ Charlotte Observer.PDF

Edited December 12, 2023 by kayman

[KJHburg]

Here is a successful program for affordable housing that is not rentals but for purchase in Concord.

WeBuild Concord nonprofit works to increase affordable housing | wcnc.com

WeBuild Concord – Building Homes, Partnerships, and Opportunities

[KJHburg]

Here are more older hotels and motels converting into micro apartments.

Motels are being turned into one solution for Charlotte’s affordable housing problem | WFAE 90.7 - Charlotte's NPR News Source

[kermit]

 

[KJHburg]

this is good start especially those transitioning from the prison system to jobs and normal lifestyle again.

""A Charlotte nonprofit whose mission is to help formerly incarcerated citizens successfully reenter society has closed on the purchase of property near University City.

Freedom Fighting Missionaries acquired 1.8 acres at 2135 E. W.T. Harris Blvd. for $995,000, according to Mecklenburg County real estate records. The sale closed Feb. 28, records show.

Kenneth Robinson, founder and executive director of Freedom Fighting Missionaries, said the plan is to build a 24-unit affordable-housing apartment community for formerly incarcerated individuals and/or families involved with the justice system. Charlotte City Council and Mecklenburg County each awarded the organization $2 million in funding last year to support the housing initiative.""

Apartments planned near University City for formerly incarcerated - Charlotte Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

[kermit]

I guess its not a surprise that the WSJ frames rent declines in Austin as bad news rather than good.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/once-americas-hottest-housing-market-austin-is-running-in-reverse-94226027

 

[KJHburg]

this is great.  from QC Nerve about the site of Economy Inn at Sugar Creek Rd and I-85.    City council did approve this tonight and this are tweets from QC Nerve about this" 

""The proposed development will include a minimum of 39 new construction for-sale residential townhome units affordable to families earning at or below 80 percent AMI for at least 20 years. Units may not be leased during that time.  PHV is a partnership of True Homes and Prosperity Alliance. Both are experienced affordable housing developers that offer a community, mission-oriented approach with focus on affordable homeownership especially for households impacted by racial disparities in homeownership.  "Council will now vote on whether to sell 4.32 acres of city-owned property at 5342 and 5350 Reagan Drive (formerly Economy Inn) to Prosperity Hidden Valley, LLC for $1 for the development of affordable housing."""

and another story about this

Charlotte City Council to vote on Sugar Creek Road town homes | wcnc.com

 

Edited March 26 by KJHburg