Charlotte-Douglas Airport (CLT) Expansion

[Lloyds5]

Ok I am relatively new to this forum so did not have that perspective or know about that MIA poster, I work in the travel business and have a fairly good Idea of the economics of Air Travel, a lot of what I m giving you here is my opinion based on my understanding of the business. All of the Hubs except for DFW and to a lesser extent Mia are going to be impacted by this merger including CLT. But to read this post most people think it will be business as in the old US. It wont be unfortunately. Also I don't think Mia can replace what CLT does in the network nor can JFK replace PHL. But Mia is a better gateway to Latin America. My comments about GRU set this off I think, my gut tells me the route will go to Mia but if you look at the old filings AA applied for a number of cities including ORD - GRU it was denied and US applied for PHL to GRU it was denied, the new AA could transfer to one of those hubs(CLT has virtually no demand to Brazil and this means weaker profits if any as we saw with GIG) if they think the utilization of the aircraft and profit is better. but I think it will be Miami. Not because of the connections because local demand is so much stronger. If you look at my earlier posts I said Miami is the not what Charlotte has to worry about so much, its what happens up north with JFK/PHL- does JFK become the primary Gateway and PHL becomes the back up or reliever to JFK- the role CLT serves today. Then what becomes of CLT International Service- that's were we are vulnerable.  

[skymiler]

The reason why Denver has such a large airport and is busier than Charlotte is because Denver is isolated. The nearest large commercial airport is hundreds of miles away. Charlotte is surrounded by 4 decent sized airports in a 125 mile radius, give or take.

Colorado Springs and its airport is as close to Denver as any of Charlotte's surrounding airports.

[clt29301]

And, Colorado as a state only has 5.2m residents.  Charlotte has over 7m residents within a 100 mile radius.  I know there are smaller airports like GSP but they have a small number of flights..even SWA is struggling to make it at GSP.  So, I don't see this as a big issue when looking at Denver. 

 

Lloyd.....you are right, if the Lufthansa flight becomes unprofitable, it will go away.  That is not the point, BMW likes having the flight because they use it therefore helps make it profitable.  The issue with US/AA was addressed earlier this year when Lufthansa said they would keep the flight and would work with US/AA to have feeder traffic to the flight at Charlotte. 

 

Any opinion about the merger results are pure speculation at this point.  For years, people suggested that the next bank merger would result in BofA moving the HQ to Boston, NYC, SF, St Louis or name the city.  In the end, it did not happen.  With the US/AA merger, whether you are in the industry or not, unless you are in the strategy rooms with Parker, you may as well be guessing the ceiling of Tesla's stock price.  I just don't buy the gloom and doom about Charlotte's international traffic.  As I said earlier, Charlotte is not much smaller than Denver on a metro basis and much larger when you go out 100 miles.  Denver seems to be sustaining a lot of service which makes it unrealistic to suggest Charlotte's traffic will be routed through JFK, PHL, and what ever else airport you can name.  You could easily argue that United could use SFO, ORD, Houston and others instead of Denver which is not the case.  The metrics that come into play when deciding routes are airport slots, expense, available aircraft (and optional routes), load factors, freight etc.....to simply say that because now PHL, JFK, DFW and Miami are now in with US Airways so Charlotte's international service must be cut as a result is not sound logic, especially considering Charlotte is the 2nd largest hub in the new airline.  To say these things is not claiming the world revolves around Charlotte. But, to say that flights must leave Charlotte because of PHL, JFK, etc....is not a sound argument against leaving these flights in Charlotte.  For instance (and only an example for illustrative purposes), if PHL has too many flights per day to Rome, why move the Charlotte flight to compete in a overcrowded market.  If you do, you are only going to sell the seats at a discount which reduces the margin.  At those levels, the flight at 70% capacity may be better out of Charlotte.

 

With regards to Paris, 2000 was a long time ago to base current opinions and 2010 was not far from the great recession, again, not a good basis to make a call on whether the flight is sustainable.

[Lloyds5]

I don't want to argue with you, you just don't understand airline economics, Paris is  not profitable if it were US would fly it year round as they do from PHL.If US thought it would be more profitable then PHL- guess what they would fly it from CLT US is not in love with one airport over another. GIG was/is not profitable and US is ending CLT service. Most of CLT's transatlantic service is operated seasonally which tells me US knows they would lose money operating those flights annually. As far as crowded airports go, they are crowded because carriers make money there so if a US Hub could sustain Rome 3x a day and make a lot of money guess what they would fly it 3x daily. AA/BA fly JFK-LHR+10x daily cause they make LOTS of money, those flights are not getting moved just to  maintain a flight from some other Hub.  This merger was/is about Economics and Consolidation, there will be consolidation other wise the new AA wont hit profitability targets and with consolidation some hubs are going to lose some flights and yes that could include CLT.          

[clt29301]

Lloyd......I understand economics, you don't seem to understand my questions.  And, that is ok.  You have written nothing more than your speculation based on the limited logic you want to employ. 

 

You said Paris was not profitable because they tried it in 2000 and 2010.  Well, as I said, they are not relevant benchmarks for today.  If you think so, sorry.  As for crowded airports......you missed my point.  Bottom line is this, I doubt anyone on here knows the margins by route and are just speculating.

 

Mergers are about gaining efficiencies but they are also about increasing revenue, leveraging assets, and expanding markets.  Equity analysts don't just look at merger savings, they look at increased revenue, margins, opportunity costs,  and many more metrics that would only bore you.....

 

Seems as though you are only interested in trying to explain why Charlotte should fail instead of logically talking through the points.  You have said that AA could shift these routes to larger hubs but failed to explain why United has not done this with Denver....only marginally larger than Charlotte.  Only time will tell where this thing is headed and by the way, Charlotte is a crowded airport which makes a ton of money for AA.

[LKN704]

Denver has Colorado Springs, yes. I doubt Denver suffers much leakage to Colorado Springs due to the lack of low fare opportunities and air service at the airport. Denver is also not only a large hub for United, but is a large base for two low fare carriers, Southwest and Frontier, providing ample low fare opportunities.

 

Charlotte has Greensboro, Columbia, and Greenville/Spartanburg all within a 1.5 hour radius. All three airports have good service with connections to most major airline hubs along the Eastern seaboard and the Midwest. All three airports have low-fare airlines.

 

Salt Lake City also has a similar situation to Denver. It's isolation allows for a decent sized hub in comparison to its population.

[ah59396]

This thread is a crapstorm. Is it possible if all speculation was moved to an off topic coffeehouse thread and this thread was left for clt Douglas construction as was initially intended.

[HopHead]

This thread is a crapstorm. Is it possible if all speculation was moved to an off topic coffeehouse thread and this thread was left for clt Douglas construction as was initially intended.

 

This times 10...

[Guest]

This thread is a crapstorm. Is it possible if all speculation was moved to an off topic coffeehouse thread and this thread was left for clt Douglas construction as was initially intended.

or another forum altogether. 

[CltFlyer]

or another forum altogether. 

I understand the non aviation person's frustration with this thread, but I enjoy this thread, and how its exclusively for the Charlotte airport which doesn't receive much coverage on the major aviation message boards.  Move the thread to coffee house and create a new one for purely construction if it annoys you that much, but don't get rid of it altogether.   If you don't like aviation, you don't have to read this thread.   

 

Actual announcements for airports and aviation in general are few and far in between, so speculation is necessary.

 

Personally I enjoy this thread and I don't think I'm alone in that stance, as it is a free forum that discusses aviation (unlike airliners.net).

Edited July 13, 2014 by CltFlyer

[ssh214]

I understand the non aviation person's frustration with this thread, but I enjoy this thread, and how its exclusively for the Charlotte airport which doesn't receive much coverage on the major aviation message boards.  Move the thread to coffee house and create a new one for purely construction if it annoys you that much, but don't get rid of it altogether.   If you don't like aviation, you don't have to read this thread.   

 

Actual announcements for airports and aviation in general are few and far in between, so speculation is necessary.

 

Personally I enjoy this thread and I don't think I'm alone in that stance, as it is a free forum that discusses aviation (unlike airliners.net).

 

I agree with CltFlyer... As long as conversation is civil and there are no personal attacks I'm good with speculation as long as evidence is used to support claims.

[allthingsplanes]

I agree.  And I think that this all relates back in some way to airport construction / expansion since it is about whether US / AA presence in Charlotte will stay level, increase, or decrease.  Obviously, the level of service will have huge implications for the airport.

 

However, I also agree that the "speculation" about service should be left to aviation forums.  I think information that's fairly solid (ie. Miesian's) is helpful regarding the airport.

[15895]

However, I also agree that the "speculation" about service should be left to aviation forums. I think information that's fairly solid (ie. Miesian's) is helpful regarding the airport.

This

[ah59396]

I'm fine with the thread staying put. But it's gone from announcements about new flights or new construction to a pissing contest on who can guess best what airlines or flights are going to go to clt or Miami or Philadelphia. That should be in the coffeehouse.

[CltFlyer]

I'm fine with the thread staying put. But it's gone from announcements about new flights or new construction to a pissing contest on who can guess best what airlines or flights are going to go to clt or Miami or Philadelphia. That should be in the coffeehouse.

This is only occurring because with the merger, many are uncertain about Charlotte's future, especially as an international gateway.  In a few months or so when Charlotte's position post merger becomes more clear, the complete guessing type of speculating should die down.

Edited July 13, 2014 by CltFlyer

[Lloyds5]

OK, I splain to you what I think is going on at UAL, United after its reverse take over by Continental(US did the same with AA) has not rationalized its route network and has the worst margins out of all the major carriers because to date they have not fully integrated the two companies. But that is Changing. Several months ago they announced the closing of the Cleveland Hub(too close to ORD and weak O&D) and many analyst think the next Hub to be rationalized is Dulles as it is duplicative with EWR(Newark). In fact many analyst are saying they should close the hub(this would be good for CLT as IAD has significant overlap with CLT in the Mid- Atlantic and the South East). United is under pressure at Denver based on Southwest's big build up there and is fighting to maintain market share( this is similar  to what happened at PHL in 2004 when Southwest built up big and US fought hard to maintain their market share while losing money eventually US filed for BK2 and turned it around forcing SW to pull back)   If the losses or the margins are weak or negative at some point they will have to rationalize service between Den and SFO as they are  relatively close geographically but Denver is a domestic connecting point while San Francisco is the gateway to Asia and the South Pacific. Short story UAL has been slow to integrate the operations thus the poor performance- look for further route and hub realignment in the coming year. As for Paris, my question to you would be: why fly a wide body in winter to Phl, MCO, CUN on short routes that are less than ideal for a long haul aircraft like the A332,when you could fly it to CLT- CDG, FCO? Its because your market analysis and route planners must be telling you that  CDG and FCO in winter will lose money and the best option is to fly the plane on short routes that have demand in winter and could produce a decent yield. That's why Paris and Rome are not flown in the winter from CLT.

I think this forum is acting as it should with people expressing  their view point, when I first moved to NC 10 years ago, I could tell people were proud and this board proves people are proud and passionate about CLT and that is good. As long as people are civil I think debate is very healthy.

[Miesian Corners]

So it's OK to speculate on development and projects uptown and SouthEnd, but not here,  Gotcha.  Duly noted.

[Guest]

So it's OK to speculate on development and projects uptown and SouthEnd, but not here,  Gotcha.  Duly noted.

This we like. It's the off topic airport pissing matches that are difficult to follow. :-)

[15895]

So it's OK to speculate on development and projects uptown and SouthEnd, but not here, Gotcha. Duly noted.

It's like, in my opinion, if there was a back and forth of whether Charlotte could support An office tower in the crescent thread. I do like though rumors or speculations or educated guesses on when construction could start etc and speculating on why it would take so long or if they are having trouble with tenants, what retail I would like to see etc

And in this thread I know I enjoy hearing about specific routes, speculating on routes that we expect to gain, maintain or lose. Could we grow, could we lose some, the latest rumors, expansion, etc.

Edited July 15, 2014 by AirNostrumMAD

[skymiler]

Denver has Colorado Springs, yes. I doubt Denver suffers much leakage to Colorado Springs due to the lack of low fare opportunities and air service at the airport.

Well I can only speak for myself, but I've chosen COS 3 times over Denver. By the way, you also have regional airports within 100 miles at PUB (Pueblo) and LAR (Laramie) that fly United Express.

[kickazzz2000]

So it's OK to speculate on development and projects uptown and SouthEnd, but not here,  Gotcha.  Duly noted.

Was gonna say the same thing.

[cltbwimob]

So it's OK to speculate on development and projects uptown and SouthEnd, but not here, Gotcha. Duly noted.

+1!!!

This we like. It's the off topic airport pissing matches that are difficult to follow. :-)

RDF, I am sure you meant this post to be tongue-in-cheek, however I do feel that it makes light of a problem I sometimes find on these threads, that problem being the urge to act in the role of a moderator without being an actual moderator. Sometimes I find myself wanting to act in such a manner, however, it is somewhat unseemly, in my opinion, to make a unilateral declaration that a debate has veered off-topic especially when the poster is a) not a moderator, and b) the debate is precisely on topic. In this case, both bases "a" and "b" are met.

Speculation and debate about the route structure from CLT is not even tangential to the topic of airport expansion, but is at the very center of all airport planning and decision making. These topics are debated on levels much higher than just here; it is around these topics that officials decide which projects get the go-ahead and which projects do not (ref: international terminal, fourth parallel runway). Furthermore, the airlines that serve CLT and the routes they serve can confer upon the city a national and international prominence unlike any other single asset, save maybe our prominence as a financial center. I will note, however, that our financial sector, although still largely intact in terms of employment numbers, is a mere shell of its former self. As such it is important to allow healthy debate to continue. To those who self-profess to have little knowledge of the aviation industry, it is easy to view this debate as a classic "pissing match". To those of us who have connections to the aviation world, much of the debate of recent days is on point with this specific topic, including the points made regarding airline economics and which airports get which flights, as these topics affect Charlotte. Lastly, I will note regarding speculation, there is all sorts of rampant speculation on this forum, some on topic, some not. In fact, I believe the speculation and the predictions, especially when accurate, is what attracts people to this site. For example, MC told us months ago there would be a double daily flight to LHR operated by US Airways; two weeks ago the flight was announced. In other threads such as the Good News Report, we found out that a major manufacturer was going to the Chester County megasite months prior to it's announcement. Last year, I believe you predicted a second Skyhouse; it was announced just a few weeks ago. It's the insider insight and informed/educated guesses that make this site interesting. Should this speculation and all speculation be moved to the coffeehouse or to another forum altogether? If this thread, and by extension, this site were purely for rehashing announcements and news articles, then what would be the fundamental difference between this site and City-Data or the "comments" section of the Observer? Would there be any impetus for UP to exist?

In conclusion, just because a poster either does not understand, does not like, or does not agree with the debate at hand, the onus is not on him/her to attempt to stifle the debate, especially when the individual is not a moderator and the debate does not violate user agreements. The "pissing match", as it were, has been ostensibly conducted in accordance with such guidelines. Healthy debate is a hallmark of a democratic society...it should be allowed to continue.

Edited July 15, 2014 by cltbwimob

[atlrvr]

MODERATOR NOTE:  READ ME!!!

 

I've deleted a couple of posts on here that were really just the same people saying the same thing over again with a more negative emphasis, other than that I've been sort of letting this thread lumber along.

 

I understand that it can be frustrating for some people to watch a ping-pong match of acronyms from people who may or may not have a sister's uncle's god-son, who once rode on a plane and set within 3 rows of two possible airline employees discussing what they over-heard from someone who looked like their their bosses' suprivisor from behind who was dicsussing a route on a cell phone call in the breakroom.

 

That said:

 

A) This is a forum what encourages engagement from a broad cross section of people who care about urban and local issues.  I feel like I have a strong sense of who is reliable, and who isn't, but also expect forum members to be able to arrive at their own conclusions, and not rely on moderators to selectively filter/censor people whom we aren't sure of their vailidity.

 

B) In my opinion, Charlotte airport expansion is primarily a function of route expansion by American/US Airways or other carriers.  Therefore, I do feel this is the appropriate thread to discuss routes, and splitting this thread would probably lead to less overall activity (some might like that, I get it).

 

All that said, this forum is supposed to be a community, and posters that don't treat it as such will first start seeing their posts deleted/then suspended.  The expectation is this forum isn't a place to run duplicate coversations already occurring on other aviator focused sites.  Moderators will use discretion to determine if some posters are abusing the spirit of this forum.  If you want to complain, please contact a moderator directly, and not waste an entire page debating the quality of this thread.

[Miesian Corners]

^ Exactly.

BTW, the grading for the I-85 connector is well underway. Looks like they might actually be able to finish it by November.

[Miesian Corners]

CLTBWIMOB, well stated.