A recession could be triggered by the fact that the average worker's pay has not grown as quickly as the economy and with the current occupant of the White House being a "tariff man" but clearly not understanding the mechanics of how tariffs actually work, should a trade war ensue and companies become forced into passing along some of the increased costs of importing both raw materials and finished goods, this will drive up prices on a wide variety of items for consumers, construction companies, manufacturers and others. The issue then becomes a decline in sales as customers pull back spending or ballooning debt due to a greater reliance on credit - or worse, a combination of the two. The trick will be managing a potential trade dispute into a modest economic slowdown rather than a full on recession. So if you are a betting person, it comes down to your confidence that the clown car currently driving around Washington D.C. has the acumen to pull off such a feat. Or, things may just work out fine and in the spirit of camaraderie and cooperation, the United States could look to lead with policies that advance the interests of all involved and economic stability is achieved for the foreseeable future.