RiverYuppy

That only includes localities that identify as independent cities. Some just consider themselves counties. Fairfax - ~1,140,000 Prince William - ~487,00 Loudon - ~432,000 Chesterfield - ~379,000 Henrico - ~334,000 Arlington - ~234,000

Norfolk does have a declining population. Right now RVA is the 10th most populous city/county in Virginia. I would like to see us grow to be at least in the top five of Virginia. I think that if RVA's schools start to improve we'll se a significant spike in population as houses with 1-2 people get filled up with 3-5 because families stay in the city.

I think generalizations about groups of people are not helpful. I don't like it when people in Hanover do it about the city. I try not to be the same as those people. Hopefully Hanover's reluctance for development in its county pushes some of that demand closer to the city to increase density.

I wonder if a distribution center there would make them more likely to open a grocery store closer to Richmond or even possibly within the city. I love Wegmans, but if you live in most of RVA it's a 20-30 minute drive one way to get to it. Putting one in as part of the Diamond District would make a great alternative to Whole Foods.

I think this is part of why with a North / South line it would be important to preference quality over quantity. You can have sprawl with 4 story buildings too. Heck you can have it with 10 story buildings, just look at NoVA. A North / South line that is efficient, convenient, and not too long will encourage density. A long sprawling line will encourage sprawling development and no part of the line will become sufficiently dense anytime soon. I'd like to see a line that just goes from Azalea to Wamsley.

VUU really needs a strategic transformation. They rely way too heavily on their divinity school. VSU is an HBCU in the region that offers many traditional in-demand degrees like computer science. Union Seminary is just a few blocks up Brook Road and offers a great Masters of Divinity already. Union Seminary is entirely focused on that, so it makes a compelling option for someone interested in that route. Right now rather than really trying to broaden their undergraduate offerings to include more in-demand degrees, they're trying to be a go to for black pastors to get an MBA. Certainly a bold bet that I'm not so sure will work out.

The townhomes to be developed in South Highland Park/Chestnut Hill are up on Zillow here. (Note the Zillow listing is not placed in the right area) I'm in Charlotte until May 10th. When I get back I'll try to grab some pictures of how far they have progressed. But having Zillow listings is promising.

How do you know it will be an industrial development?

IKEA Makes Biggest Ever Investment in U.S. With 17 New Stores. With 17 new stores, I wonder if they will come to RVA‽

I do wish that the solar panels were on the roof instead of taking up developable land. Isolating low-income communities can have its own problems and a giant field of solar panels will serve to do that. What would be good for the city would be if low-income housing did go to places with tons of working class jobs like Short Pump. Short Pump Mall alone probably has more working class jobs than there are in a 2 mile radius of this development. We should be putting low-income housing in areas where there are good schools and a plethora of working class jobs. Instead we pile them in the places with the worst schools, least jobs, worst environment, etc. So it's a shame this wouldn't happen in Short Pump.

According to North of The James, the apartment will undergo significant renovations. It won't be razed for a new building though. He plans on giving the outside a facelift and doing significant renovations inside to bring the apartment more in line with modern apartment offerings in RVA. Completely redeveloping the block to be mixed used and right abut the sidewalk would be amazing. But considering the purchase price and how the developer would be attacked from all sides, it just doesn't make economic sense. It would need to not have much parking. It would need to have very high rents/sales price. Two things that would unify both sides of the NIMBYs.

It would be nice to see the current Roses be redeveloped. It is currently a giant parking lot that is absolutely underutilized. Half the building is vacant. It would be nice to see something with density go there, but also something that provides services to city dwellers not looking to drive all the way to Mechanicsville/White Oak for a Publix, Target, Petco, etc. Here the red is the site of the Roses. The yellow is Henrico Plaza. The red would be super c onvenient for people in Shockoe, Downtown, Highland Park, Brookland Park, Church Hill, etc.

Henrico Plaza was the largest empty parking lot I've ever seen. It being turned into mixed-used multi-story buildings is HUGE for that area. It will be almost 600 new units of housing in that once abandoned lot, with over 100 of them being home buying opportunities. I'm super excited to see if it sparks any new developments/movements between this and the city proper.

There is totally the will to redevelop this building. It just needs to be sold to an actual developer. Right next to it the Richmond Art Garage is getting permits to build a brand new two story addition to the existing building. Across the street two mixed-use commercial/apartment buildings are under construction. Since RRHA hamstrung the development of that building, tons of buildings have been renovated and occupied by thriving local businesses. I'd love to see that building renovated with a cool business that contributes to the community.

I think we really lucked out that Whole Foods ended up going where it did. Sometimes it feels like the westward sprawl is unstoppable and can easily see it having winded up in Willow Lawn. Now if you live downtown, you don't have to drive all the way out of the city to go to a name brand premium grocery store. In fact it probably brings some people into Richmond vs forcing them to drive out of Richmond. Having Publix in Carytown and Whole Foods 5 minutes from Downtown is a huge win. Now if only there was redevelopment of the Kroger on Lombardy and the Farm Fresh in Shockoe. Kroger could do something like they're doing in Mechanicsville. Jettison their old location and build a new & improved one nearby. Perhaps then they can also jettison the reputation of being the worst Kroger in the region, which is why so many people in the city drive by it to go to another grocery store. Not to mention something like 70% of their current lot is asphalt and is a prime location for a mixed-use development. They could re-open in the Diamond District and sell the old lot to developers.

I'm hoping that VCU makes a good run this year. I get a daily newsletter from Axios. Todays included a bracket for nicest building in RVA. Round one of voting can be found here. Do you think any buildings are missing? What would be your first round? I think Sacred Heart Cathedral and The Mosque should both be on the list. The Jefferson would be another good one. Should we do our own bracket?

I don't see any demo permits. It will be interesting to see if the old Pet dairy facility gets included in whatever the ABC redevelopment is. Thalhimer purchased it in 2018. It is located right next to the old ABC HQ.

What are y'alls "When is it going to happen" projects? When I hear about projects near me, sometimes it feels like watching paint dry waiting for ground to break. To provide an example, there was apartments announced near a brewery in Northside back in May 2021. Whenever I was in that area I would check for progress. Nothing for all of 2021. Nothing for all of 2022. Finally it looks like the first of this month they applied to demo the old building, so I'm assuming it's going to start going through! More locally to me are two properties on Brookland Park. A developer who has done a lot of work on Brookland Park purchased the abandoned theater in 2019. Unfortunately nothing has come of that yet. If you saw my post on the changes in Northside, 80% of it was done by the guy that got that theater, so I don't doubt something will come of it. But still the waiting is painful. Additionally there is a an abandoned historic bank building on Brookland Park. In 2015 it was purchased from RRHA by a developer who received a grant from he city to revitalize it. After a lengthy legal battle from him not developing it, the property is finally back in RRHA ownership within the last few months. Hopefully it won't still be abandoned 8 years from now... Another big one is VUU's planned redevelopment of an old gross motel announced back in 2019. The motel sits there boarded up and fenced off. It would be such a huge improvement to the Lombardy gateway to Northside. Every time I pass it on the way to the grocery store I cross my fingers there will be a bulldozer tearing down the motel. I'm curious. What are the projects that haven't been canceled but you're still waiting to happen?

EDIT: It looks like the POD was last year not this month. I got the years mixed up EDIT 2: It looks like a new one was indeed submitted this month. I also found this article from earlier this month that says they plan to start demolition of the old buildings this May 2023. Of course I love density as well, but this will lead to density. It wasn't long ago that Hardywood was just some brewery in a sea of lifelessness. Now there are apartments across from it, nice condos surrounding it, Now there is going to be a nice mixed-use development instead of a sketchy looking metal yard between those apartments and Whole Foods. The more the major corridors to and from the Diamond District become gentrified, the more comfortable developers are going to be building height there. This is what happened with Scotts Addition. Speaking of the Hermitage Corridor, height, and development. Breeder Construction submitted a POD this month for the $53m mixed-use development RBS covered in 2021. The Architectural plans says 7 floors. 01. Arch Plans.pdf After this and the Sauer development are done, that section won't feel like a lifeless area that developers might want to test the waters with. it'll feel like a vibrant area that it's time to bet big on.

If you're ever looking for a cup of coffee in Shockoe, I recommend checking out Ironclad. It's a cozy little place that occasionally has live music from their grand piano. It is a great addition to RIC. Even if their airport locations are only half as good as their Shockoe location, they'll be five times better than Caribou. I did not like Caribou coffee and would intentionally avoid it in RIC. With Ironclad I'll gladly get a cup each time I go to RIC. As someone who is a big fan of airport lounges, RIC does feel very different than a lot of other airports I have been to. Though I've never been to one in a city that compares to RVA. As much as I would love for RIC to get a Centurion lounge, what RIC needs is a Firehouse Subs, Chipotle, Chick-fil-A or something of the sort. Right now it feels like it serves Walmart brand restaurants at Whole Foods prices. If I'm leaving from RIC and I want to grab lunch/dinner while I wait for my flight, being able to grab a solid meal that I'm familiar with and is reasonably priced would be wonderful. I'd rather have a $10 Chipotle bowl or $9 chicken sandwich combo that I know I'll like than having to shell out $30 on a meal that I know is going to taste subpar. The more traffic RIC gets the more it can sustain better businesses. That would effectively double the potential customers many businesses opening in RIC could get. Hopefully that does happen soon.

The convenience store in question and local leaders recently came to a compromise. Virginia ABC was set to permanently revoke their ABC license (the bread and butter of that business). Instead they are on probation for a year and have to comply to certain stipulations the community put in place. Some of the stipulations include not being able to sell single serve alcohol--it must at least come in a four pack. Putting up signage of no more than 15 minute parking and hiring a towing company to enforce. Closing at 11 instead of 12. They can't have "skill games" which is a legal loophole to have video slot-machine style games. etc. ---------- I think businesses drive population. I also think population drives businesses. Big businesses attract skilled professions. Skilled professionals attract big businesses. It's a feedback loop. I think there is going to be a shift of some sorts coming though. My company closed 4 offices (all but HQ) and halved the HQ office size. Me and everybody on my team work remotely. The whole country isn't going to go remote, but we're certainly not going back to pre-2020. Ironically, a main reason for not living in the city in RVA was jobs. The largest private employers, CarMax, CapitalOne, Markel, PFG, Genworth, Altria, Owen's & Minor, ASGN, etc. all have their HQs outside of the city. Living in Church Hill or Manchester isn't super convenient if you have to commute to Glenn Allen or Short Pump every day. The great position that RVA is in is that many people in the city live in the city despite of their work location, not specifically because of it. That means increase remote work will keep more people in the city. If you work in CarMax or Capital One and only have to go in two days a week, living close to downtown just became more enticing, not less. With the exception of perhaps Dominion Energy, many of the companies downtown are ones that still require in-person. I have a friend who works at one of the large law firms downtown and I know he works remotely 0 days of the week. The government, legal, and healthcare professions concentrated downtown aren't going to be able to pick up and work remotely someplace else.

I wish this also included that motel. Hopefully this development pushes for the motel to redevelop. I really see Northside changing a lot, though I might be biased because I live there. That you don't have to travel down an entirely dead street full of abandoned buildings to get to Overbrook from The Fan is going to be huge in itself. Now you'll pass nice townhomes, this new development, and hopefully VUU's new building. Here is a map of Northside that describes how I see it. In the blue you can see everything west of Chamberayne and North of Brookland Park. Bellevue, Laburnum Court, Rosedale etc. There aren't really dilapidated parts of this area. There are million dollar homes, private schools, and multiple major national political players live here. In the Purple Pink area, you have VUU/Diamond. You're already starting to see development here with the new Hardywood townhomes. Before the townhomes, there were the apartments across from Hardywood that went up. This is also where they just announced a hotel is being turned into apartments. Then of course there is the Diamond District, but serious development initiative in this area predates that. Then there is the red strip that is Chamberlayne avenue. Chamberlayne feels kind of sketchy. I'm sure many people would feel uncomfortable walking on the sidewalk there. Developments are happening south of Brookland Park to rejuvenate the corridor, but I'm not exactly sure how that is going to play out North of Brookland Park. Then there is the Yellow section. That is the part of the city that has a lot of dilapidated buildings and elevated crime, but is also experiencing a boon in redevelopment. I think this yellow line is important because when you cross it, it really feels like you've gone to another area. If you're a buyer looking for a house in Northside, crossing that Yellow line is going to feel like you're no longer living in "Northside." That means that developers can't really go past that yellow line to do their next house, so they have to really put in the leg work of figuring out how to get the last abandoned buildings on the block sold. I think that is the phase that the yellow section is starting to enter in. There is no more going one block farther to pick off the low-hanging fruit. We've hit the boundary. The green line represents a huge stretch of dead space that really separates Henrico and Hanover. As there is more expendable income happening in the areas seen in this map, I think there is going to be increased pressure for higher density suburban development south of that green line. We can already see a huge apartment complex going in where "Henrico Plaza" used to be. Lastly, this Northside area has the chance to be the only "good" k-12 schools in the city. If this comes to pass, that will put tremendously more pressure on the area.

I think demand is what rules cities. That eventually drives population. In 1950 Richmond had a larger population. In 1950 there weren't a plethora of large apartment complexes in Manchester and Scotts Addition. There weren't giant condos on the Canal Walk. Many of RVA's largest apartment buildings didn't exist. Would you rather have 1950s RVA population with 1950s development levels or 2023 population with 2023 development levels? So one question is how did 1950s RVA have a higher population without having all of those extra apartments? I think the logical answer is there were a lot of 4-6+ person families that lived in houses that are now occupied by only 1-2 people. To provide some anecdotal experience that can explain how population can lower with more development happening, I would take a look at the block I live in Northside. I purchased a house built in 1920 that was turned into a duplex in the 80s or 90s. According to my neighbors generally 5-6 people lived in my house. Then my house was renovated into a single family house again. I moved in and got two roommates. So the population of my house went from 5-6 -> 3. Then my roommates moved out and my GF moved in. Now it's 5-6 -> 3 -> 2. When I moved in about half the houses on my block were abandoned. All of the houses except mine were deteriorating. Some houses had families of 7+ living in them. Since I moved in *every* house on my side of the block has been renovated and sold. There are no more abandoned houses. But the average occupancy is 1-2 people. So to recap, half the houses on my block that were abandoned were completely renovated and brought up to modern standards. The ones that were rentals were also renovated and brought up to modern standards. But the population of my block went down. Whether my block is better or worse now is--I assume--a matter of opinion. Simply looking at the population of my block doesn't show the whole story. I think the real growth in population is going to happen when RVA schools start being good enough for people to decide they want to raise a family in the city proper. The quickest/easiest way to add population is to simply add more people to existing households.

A few observations about the cost. Not all units are the same. We would expect an apartment with all 2bed/2bath units to have a higher per unit cost than one with all studio apartments. The project was originally projected to have 76 units but now only has 66 units. However, I don't see any indication that the footprint of the project has changed, which would lead me to believe that they are going to have fewer larger units rather than more smaller units. If you're someone looking to save money on rent--which I'm sure many of their potential customers are--sharing an apartment with friends can save you 30-50% in rent/utilities. Additionally the construction includes the cost of the commercial flex space which isn't some amenity for the apartments to share. If you just divide the total cost of the project by the number of units, you're lumping the cost of the commercial space into the per unit cost. I think if you consider those things, the various forms of financial incentives/support they are getting, and the current inflationary environment the cost isn't so far out there.

Developer adds another apartment building to its plans for Six Points