thatguy

permit to build or demo? They have a permit to demo, which is not dependent upon parking...now the building permit may or does require an answer to that before issue.

they are not going to get the rest of the block. Too pricey..besides, in their words "they build around hold outs all the time in NYC, we can do the same here..."

I am not comparing Gaddams to Goodstein. The financing would be similar though. Deep pockets or not, the money is from a lending source which would have presale requirements. If those presale numbers are not met, the project will get stalled or pulled like Granby towers. Lets hope they hit their numbers early into the development, or they diluted the condos down and increased the apt number, so their presale number is low.

Think Granby Towers, he had the financing which is always based on a presale number. That way the bank gets theirs first. If Centennial has a go, it is based on a presale. So if they miss their numbers, the loan could be in jeopardy.

They have an agreement, but not the $. By that I mean to say, if they are truly have presales of condos, then there is a magic number before the lender will release the construction $. Think Granby, hit the numbers...build...miss the numbers, you end up with a hole in the ground like Granby Towers.

My guess is abatement, demo could still be a ways off...but this is a very promising sign.

Richmond Home sales down 20%, much worse than the national average of 8% http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-co...10-24-0200.html

trends. A large building is more stable financially with a larger % of its apts smaller. They may have turn over, but no high cost associated with them, thus more profitable for the owner in a slump. Remember it is always about profit, never prestige. If they say it is prestige, it is a cloak for profit. The owner must get his and the profit ratio leans towards smaller and more, versus large and few. All that is based off my belief that Centennial will not be exclusively condos. If it will have condos, I believe it will be a encompass a very small part of their sqft. I do not see them getting a lender who is looking to place more condos on their portfolio, forcing them to have more apts. My most previous example is the Granby Towers. There is only one reason their lender backed away at the last minute. The lack of sales gave them that out they were preying for...dump the condo loan off their books and move on.

If they do go with Apts. They will not increase the total sqft, they will just make the apts smaller to get more apts, than the number of predevelopment condos. A larger % of Apts would be smaller. A certain % of apts would be the equal if it was a condo. They will simplify the majority of the units to slim the budget a touch without sacrificing the image. Thats my guess. The Apts market does not do well when they are all big units. The markets tends to like smaller units and a smaller rent, those book first and rebook first. The larger tend to sit empty longer.

The market has changed, regardless of how it is in Richmond. Granby towers is an example, albeit it is a different beast. Cent. is not on the leading edge of the market, it is on the tail end of the swing. They have to had felt the affects of these changes. I can not see this project being immune from what is going on...I see changes. The condo lending market is crap, no big house lender can afford to have a condo loan in its portfolio. How did the get the loan? If they are condos, the loan is not released until they hit a condo sale preconstruction target...no presales yet? At least in any significant amount to satisfy the debt. which takes us back to the issue with Granby. Don't hit the numbers...carpet gets pulled from under you. I see changes to insulate them from any variable in the lending market...more apts.

Here is the hint to changes..."Design completion". This project was slated to begin in the Spring 07. Was the design not completed then? They made changes...significant ones if it is going to take a while to get them ready..spring 2008. more Apartments is my guess...just a guess.

There was activity on the roofs of the buildings they plan to demo. Looks like they were removing the roof membrane(?) and placing it into plastic bags. Abatement?

has anybody walked the "footprint" of the property they purchased. Since it does not include the 3 spots at the top of the street, they have 2/3 of the main st. facing and that goes back to the alley (which splits the block parallel to main) i do not think they have the property across the alley towards Cary. If that is correct, it is not a large footprint. Maybe just of 25% of a city block? I'll need to walk it off.

The rendering I saw looks like they were including the whole side of Main St. into the footprint. Maybe it was a bad version of the rendering.

I understand that they are going to be placing barriers around the property in a few months, possibly sooner. I would assume that to mean they are going to begin demo/abatement, so they can meet an 08 ground breaking.

What it tells me, is that Goodstein did not have the financing in place when they were planning on starting Spring 07. The project will still happen. They are having to redraw plans to adapt to the new market. Possibly having to try and justify some aspects that are not feasible now. Also do not forget, the media will go to print even if you are not ready with facts. So if it looks like they jumped the gun, the media may be at fault

The question is not in "if people will buy", here in Richmond. The big question is, are lenders willing to go against the national trend and finance construction on condos in the Richmond market? They will not, their shareholders would have them fired for taking such risk, considering the bank, shareholders and other misc. backers are not in Richmond. They only see the national impacts. In the big picture, I do not see this keeping some projects from being built. Most developers have the knowledge, in place, to word, the lending package, with enough flexibility to adapt for changes. Apt now, condo later...but this does slow the approval process down. Not to mention change the ROI (return on investment). The developers own backers now have to consider how long they want to be in the project. With condos, they are out at sale, richer than before. With apts, they have to hang around a while to see their $ and if they were using credits, then they have too hang in there for min. of 5 years. Some investors have a taste for the slow turn around, others will just opt for another project. This above all else is most likely the cause of any "temporary" hold-ups.

There are plenty of "green" roofs in the surrounding areas. Just look at peoples cedar shake roofs, with enough neglect anyone can get moss to grow...LOL That said, it would be odd to see one roof green and all other shingled. I bet very few people passing by would understand what was going on with that roof.

abatement needs to happen first...no sign of that yet.

June 21 and nothing has happened...any word?

I am surprised they have not started pre-sales for the condo units.

I took thier response of "He indicated that asbestos removal will be starting VERY soon and that the structures will be demo'ed in about 4 to 6 weeks", that the demo would begin in late May to early June, which would mean the abatement would be going on now. I know what he said was not the official schedule, but it will take time to do the abatement...so the 4-6 weeks demo is long past from 4 weeks ago. Oh well, they will get it done, I'll just have to wait a little more. *edited for spelling

I think you just answered your own question. It might not seem possible, but theaters have trouble making money. That is the word I got from a guy who works in independent films.

No boat dock..they have not had that approved by the city

Relish is open and has great food. As for parking, not to worry...they have tokens for the lot behind their location. Be sure to ask when you pay.