atlrvr

I went to their website, and oh my is it a train wreck. I actually have no opinion, since they don't lay out a clear methodology. The data sets used are from the 1990's up through 2014. Perhaps some of these are refreshed annually, but that isn't available if they are. They have open source code for R to measure connectivity, which I guess looks fine. I suspect some data is regularly updated, and other data isn't, just based on inputs. So something like Charlotte losing international flights could have major impacts.

I wouldn't put too much faith into the findings of that study. The sample size per metro is incredibly small and skewed by a few properties. A significant part (I believe close to 1/2 of the measured delinquency in Charlotte is coming from 301 S College).

I agree that $$$ from local government is a bailout. As I posted in the 7th/Tryon thread, private sector needs to operate with efficiency, and if someone invested in a office building and can no longer make it work, it's not the government role to subsidize the redevelopment into housing. They (or their lender) can sell it for whatever loss required to get the numbers to work. Edit: I'll add the desire/ability of Duke or Wells to sell for a low price is much easier than an investor owner of an office building. These are near $0 assets on their balance sheets at this point.

Cliff notes version is this: Private investors/developers are efficient because failure to generate a positive return is existential risk to survival (loss of their own capital, or investors lose confidence in giving them future capital) Public entities have no such concerns. Positive returns are aspirational. Placating perceived public wish-lists has higher value. Failure is not existential crises, because ability to tax (pay for failures) is a congressionally guaranteed right.

Another public/private partnership failure, and one that had so many co-signees. I know there are many vocal critics of the Bob Walton plaza sale, but at least the site is now fully in a private developer's control. The NCDOT showed the way, with their very efficient process of disposing of excess I-277 land. 1) get city to zone land for max flexibility (UMUD) 2) auction sites. All of those parcels attracted competent developers that produced quality projects in reasonable time frames. Let the private developer price the risk. If they fail, the land will be sold to another private developer. There are simple things that the county can do to ensure development happens, if they want to prevent land-banking/parking. I now have an appreciation for Inlivian wanting to go their own way.

Cellphone usage data is pretty robust data, and the way the top marketers of this data aggregate and extrapolate is pretty solid (IMO) and I'm a card carrying Luddite. Even if someone takes issue with using is for comparison purposes, I guarantee many of the largest allocators of capital out there are absolutely using this data in their decisioning, so ignoring the approach/results would be detrimental to understanding the way real estate decisions are made (this applies to financers, developers, and tenants). Edit: After looking at the maps, if I had to take any issue with the study, it's the use of Zip Codes as the definition of downtowns, and opposed to something a bit more customized. The general concept and data I think is totally fine.

I wouldn't get too caught up in Loopnet reported occupancy. I have no insight on this property, but I would expect there to be several signed Letter of Intents (LOI's) that could be best described as "contingent leases", and I would assume additional prospects beyond that as well. That would be somewhat normal for a new construction project, though clearly build-to-suit deals do have official leases in-place (Duke and Robinson Bradshaw) much earlier. While office demand is down a lot, every major office REIT (even those with sizeable San Fran holdings) are reporting 2nd Quarter leasing activity as positive. NYC had it's best quarter in over 2 years. You can see stock prices reflecting the view that office demand is "bottoming", with SL Green and Vornado (primarily NYC office REIT's) stock both up > 80% in the last 4 months (way ahead of broader market, but also still well below their historical highs). Earnings calls are modestly bullish, with NYC probably the most bullish, but even Southeast REITS such as Cousins and Highwoods' execs pointing to signs of returning demand. Midsize professional services companies are leading this returning demand. All that said, the debt markets for office is pretty abysmal, and construction debt markets for office is effectively closed. 110 East isn't going to have much new competition for a long time.

I'll really miss that A340-600 when it finally goes out of service.

Following the theme of replicating Highland Park tenant roster, Phillips Place is also getting a Rag & Bone. Looking at there store map, seems like only in major cities/tourist hot spots except for Austin. https://www.rag-bone.com/stores Maybe only 1/2 as exclusive as Veronica Beard though based on the "blouse index", where is looks like you can get a Rag & Bone women's blouse for "only" $225.

Altar'd State is opening their 2nd Charlotte store at Design Center in South End.

I agree with this somewhat, but I think the rationale is more than just more negotiable lease rates. I think before employers assumed employees would show up wherever they were told, but now a company that wants an in-office culture either needs a building that gets people excited to show up, or a location that does. I think the older buildings in Uptown meet that definition. A boring building with no amenities in a suburban office park are at the biggest disadvantage.

Details from Akridge's approved site-plans for 1427 South Blvd.

If you're on Kings looking at the main entrance, to the left of the main hospital tower/front door. You never notice this area with the heavy amount of trees lining the creek there. This will be a bit taller than what it replaced, so not sure if it will be all that noticeable still, given where it sits on the campus.

I know this was a bit tounge-in-cheek, but I'll throw out a guess of the 2nd building in LoSo by Beacon (one of the two buildings nearly fully lease, the other doesn't have an office tenant yet, but basically ready for move-in)

*** moderator note*** Views on crime (statistics and anecdotal evidence) have been presented. Let's move it along, and focus on specific announcements and how they relate to Charlotte. If TTX announces crime as a motivating factor, certain members get a free pass to take ONE quick victory lap.

Building permits were just applied for, for the hotel component of the 7th/Tryon project.

But do you underwrite that retail space NOI assuming developer pro forma rent and 93-95% occupancy when sizing the loan? Genuine question, but I would assume not, but maybe lending for multi-family has become competitive enough that "yes"?

I don't know any of these developers specifics, but I suspect there is still some debt involved, just a much lower amount on a % basis than in a "traditional" project. That gap requires a larger equity contribution on a % basis to fill in the financing. Certainly Grubb, Spacecraft, others (?) are making selective bets this ultimately results in a similarly profitable (Return on Equity) project. For that to be true, the the reduction in rental income (technically Operating income, so Rents - Expenses) can't be as great as the reduction in building cost. In other words, if a developer believes 20% lower rents (and probably 25% Net Operating Income since expenses are somewhat fixed), but 35% lower construction costs, then it would be worth bringing much more equity, because the investors can achieve a similar return. The lender is going to assume more stressful assumptions in the absence of evidence to the contrary (higher vacancy and larger rent declines during a recession than a "normal" apartment). It will take a while (at least a full economic cycle) for a developer to prove their parking-lite portfolio in Charlotte (and similar car oriented cities) didn't perform any worse on relative basis in terms of changes in operating income during a recession, before a lender might consider this product mainstream (and therefore deserving of normal underwriting standards/debt pricing). I don't think that any capital not being invested in Office is looking for a "riskier" section of the apartment market as the next best alternative. Most of that capital is leaving CRE in general, not trying to find different property sub-types.

That's because lenders upside is just getting their money back with interest owed. Downside is getting back (a lot) less than what they lent. Why would they take a chance when there is no incentive? Equity investors / developers are the ones that could see greater financial success if you're right. If they believe it's worth it, they'll bring all the equity needed. My guess (though certainly can be wrong) is that most developers perceive potential upside not worth the extra equity (replacing debt from risk adverse lenders).

0.07 acres for $3mm, or $43mm per acre. Given the rest of the block (aside from the Deluxe Fun Dining building next door) is owned by Preferred Parking, there is no assemblage value here, or at least no where close to $3mm. Maybe 1/2 that.

I dunno. I mean, sure, The Joinery as a single-anecdote is a bit odd, but the article wasn't anti-urban in my opinion, but rather highlighting the demand for more urban-style products in areas that have very limited supply of that (suburbs) in the Carolinas. Posters on an urban development site might be dismissive of the trend, but I do think awareness that demand exists (and developers certainly seem aware) is important. What does it say about the value proposition of being in Charlotte vs suburbs? Do the suburbs have the necessary infrastructure? If we go into a recession, would the trend of suburban rent growth outperforming urban rent growth reverse?

^^^ Said differently, the current economic development engine and mobility enhancement in South End isn't actually the LRT, but the Rail Trail at 1/50th(?) the cost and none of the operating headaches.

CommScope, since Hickory is a generous definition on Charlotte metro, but since Catawba County helps funds Charlotte Alliance, they make their list. So, would be 10 F500 per their metro method.

Cousins has submitted land use plans for the surface lot at E Bland and LRT (parking lot across Bland from Hot Taco). 300 units 12,000 sq ft of retail 656 park spots I know everyone is going to freak out over the # of park spots, but I believe this will be to support the gradual redevelopment of the Hot Taco building, likely starting with the surface lot at the far end along Tryon.

Meanwhile...this quietly happened today... https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230524005833/en/Ameriprise-Financial-Expands-Geographic-Footprint-with-Additional-Corporate-Office-in-Charlotte-North-Carolina