2035 Triangle Regional Transit Vision Plan

[ctl]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I guess. To some degree, residual ill-will and distrust from the construction of the Durham freeway and its impact on Hayti may be a factor. 

[nicholas]

On 12/16/2018 at 11:08 AM, DanRNC said:

Most Chapel Hill citizens don't work in Chapel Hill but commute to Durham/RTP everyday. 15-501 is a gong show and I-40 during rush hour is untravelable. 

There are only around 60k residents in Chapel Hill, basically all of whom live scattered around the area and commute to hugely suburban areas such as RTP.  Do you really think spending 2.5 BILLION dollars for what, maybe a thousand riders from CH a day, is a wise economical decision???  Light rail works in Charlotte because it feeds into a relatively large and dense central business district, it doesn’t work in Chapel Hill because there is no notable central anything district other than UNC. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by nicholas

[Seaboard Fellow]

While I agree with some of the concern regarding the viability of  DOLRT, I will say that Chapel Hill has several bright spots which may allow the light rail to be a success. UNC has approximately 30K student and approximately 12k faculty members and staff.  The UNC Medical Center employs 7,100. Chapel Hill Transit offers free public transit and is the second largest transit system in NC as it provides 7 million rides annually. Chapel Hill transit will find ways to integrate itself with the new light rail service.  Chapel Hill does a great job when it comes to land use planning compared to other municipalities in the State and because that I believe Chapel Hill will allow dense developments with the great urban designs where appropriate.   I do wish that the Light rail would run in mixed traffic with signal priority or in a dedicated lane up Columbia St to Franklin Street, with a possible spur to Downtown  Carrboro via the existing freight line should it be abandoned. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Seaboard Fellow

[DanRNC]

13 hours ago, nicholas said:

There are only around 60k residents in Chapel Hill, basically all of whom live scattered around the area and commute to hugely suburban areas such as RTP.  Do you really think spending 2.5 BILLION dollars for what, maybe a thousand riders from CH a day, is a wise economical decision???  Light rail works in Charlotte because it feeds into a relatively large and dense central business district, it doesn’t work in Chapel Hill because there is no notable central anything district other than UNC. 

Good point. After looking at how low the daily ridership numbers are on the Charlotte system, based on population, the ridership in CH/Durham would be non-existent. 

[orulz]

Combined ridership of transit agencies in Durham, Chapel Hill, and the portion of GoTriangle in Durham and Orange, is about the same as the ridership of CATS back in 2006, the last full year before the Blue Line opened. That said, the systems are very different, especially given the fare gree transit in Chapel Hill. Hopefully it translates to comparable LRT ridership, but it is hard to predict.

[nicholas]

9 hours ago, DanRNC said:

Good point. After looking at how low the daily ridership numbers are on the Charlotte system, based on population, the ridership in CH/Durham would be non-existent. 

I think the Durham side of the LRT will be pretty successful, given that the route will run through what is quickly becoming one of the most urban areas in the state.  A streetcar on Duke St and/or Foster/Blackwell St would be pretty nice touch.  I wouldn't be opposed to seeing streetcars on Franklin/Main St between Chapel Hill and Carrboro as well as along Columbia St, as those would likely be a much better fit than a light rail that doesn't travel inside its urban core.

[Crabpeople]

I've lived in this area for 15 years and followed this website (to see what exciting new developments were coming about) for 12-13 years.  I'm a massive fan of public transportation.  I've used Amtrak multiple times, used subway systems in 20 or so cities around the world, and actual high speed trains.   I am truly amazed people believe the Durham-Orange light rail project is going to be built and completed....before 2060, when half the population will be working from home and the roads will be mostly filled with self driving delivery vehicles.  One need not be a CPA to realize it's a money pit, dead in the water.  First, consider almost half of it is through probably the most anti-growth municipality in the state.  In my 15 years here, Chapel Hill has gone from 51,000 to ~60,000 people.  Twice as many people have moved to that whopping 8 sq mile town of Morrisville since then.  The same or more can be said for virtually every suburb more than 5 square miles in size in Wake County.  A 1-1.5 mile radius around the center of North Hills has gained more population since 2003 than anti-growth Chapel Hill.  While Durham is growing at a decent rate, it still has a long way to go.  It will crack the 3000 people/sq mile mark sometime around 2030.  By then morning commutes and car ownership will be very different.  Uber vans are coming soon, for this purpose.  No need for 1/20th filled light rail trains, when a handful of ride-sharing, fair sharing vehicles can get the same job done more directly (in less time) and more efficiently (several ways, including energy used).

Figures from early 2017 put the total cost (including borrowing costs) of the Durham-Orange light rail at $3.3 Billion.  aka $10,000 for every man, woman, and child in all of Durham and Chapel Hill.  That figure is not going down with population growth.  We can't project American 4 yr university students (UNC, UNCC, Duke) as examplary users of light rail transit.   While walking a lot around campus, students at 4 yr colleges are among the most insular populations in the developed world.  Most college students rarely leave a tiny geographic area Monday-Friday.   

So surely the rail line gets somewhere near the airport, right?  At closest 10 miles away.  Ok, so it must get somewhere near the bulk of RTP employment, right?  Most people in Cary can get there much faster sitting in bumper to bumper traffic, in a 20 yr old Camry.

Not to mention the Durham Orange Light Rail line depends on:
1.   $1.2 - 1.3 Billion in federal tax dollars it doesn't have secured,
2.   Hundreds of Millions in state tax dollars it doesn't have secured,
3.  Duke University donating a fair amount of land,
4.  Durham's largest commerical enterprises, with swagger, somehow doing a 180 on their loud objections to the rail plan
5.  Ignoring its much bigger brother directly to the East, Wake County's public transportation plans, which are bigger in scope and more efficient in moving commuters.

The Durham-Orange light rail is DOA.  I hope most of its backers were just trying to get Wake County on board , the rest were just starry eyed dreamers who never liked math.

 

[kermit]

8 hours ago, Crabpeople said:

  I am truly amazed people believe the Durham-Orange light rail project is going to be built and completed....before 2060, when half the population will be working from home and the roads will be mostly filled with self driving delivery vehicles.

Please let me know where I should send my contribution to your campaign to end all road construction or expansion, prohibit any new parking and require businesses to repurpose their existing parking to more productive uses.

Edited December 19, 2018 by kermit

[orulz]

I think most can agree that there is at least a chance the feds will say Nope to DOLRT. It's not that common for a project to advance to this stage and then get turned down by the FTA, usually sponsoring agencies give up before then, but then again it did happen to us once before, in 2005.

Conceptually I am very much in favor of light rail between Durham and Chapel Hill, as an important component of a regional transit network. But I wonder if this only got launched into first place in line because Durham and Orange were a few years ahead of Wake with the transit tax and they were looking to get started on something that they could do by themselves, even if Wake never came on board. This project always felt like a stretch for the two counties and the scope increases haven't improved matters.

Nevertheless I hope it moves forward. I think in the long run it will prove its worth in spite of the pain.

I am not sure the time frame for the final decision and full funding grant agreement. If history repeats itself, and the FTA declines to enter a FFGA, after all the fingerpointing, soul searching, and belly aching over money and time down the tubes, the question is, what happens next? There will be a huge pile of transit cash sitting there. I have a hard time believing that Durham and Orange would repeal. Could they trim it back to the urban area of Durham and end the line at South Square?Pivot to focus on Durham-Wake rail and BRT for Chapel Hill? Would they give up on major capital projects altogether and add service instead? Could Durham use the money to go fare-free?

[orulz]

9 hours ago, Crabpeople said:

I've lived in this area for 15 years and followed this website (to see what exciting new developments were coming about) for 12-13 years.  I'm a massive fan of public transportation.  I've used Amtrak multiple times, used subway systems in 20 or so cities around the world, and actual high speed trains.   I am truly amazed people believe the Durham-Orange light rail project is going to be built and completed....before 2060, when half the population will be working from home and the roads will be mostly filled with self driving delivery vehicles.  One need not be a CPA to realize it's a money pit, dead in the water.  First, consider almost half of it is through probably the most anti-growth municipality in the state.  In my 15 years here, Chapel Hill has gone from 51,000 to ~60,000 people.  Twice as many people have moved to that whopping 8 sq mile town of Morrisville since then.  The same or more can be said for virtually every suburb more than 5 square miles in size in Wake County.  A 1-1.5 mile radius around the center of North Hills has gained more population since 2003 than anti-growth Chapel Hill.  While Durham is growing at a decent rate, it still has a long way to go.  It will crack the 3000 people/sq mile mark sometime around 2030.  By then morning commutes and car ownership will be very different.  Uber vans are coming soon, for this purpose.  No need for 1/20th filled light rail trains, when a handful of ride-sharing, fair sharing vehicles can get the same job done more directly (in less time) and more efficiently (several ways, including energy used).

Figures from early 2017 put the total cost (including borrowing costs) of the Durham-Orange light rail at $3.3 Billion.  aka $10,000 for every man, woman, and child in all of Durham and Chapel Hill.  That figure is not going down with population growth.  We can't project American 4 yr university students (UNC, UNCC, Duke) as examplary users of light rail transit.   While walking a lot around campus, students at 4 yr colleges are among the most insular populations in the developed world.  Most college students rarely leave a tiny geographic area Monday-Friday.   

So surely the rail line gets somewhere near the airport, right?  At closest 10 miles away.  Ok, so it must get somewhere near the bulk of RTP employment, right?  Most people in Cary can get there much faster sitting in bumper to bumper traffic, in a 20 yr old Camry.

Not to mention the Durham Orange Light Rail line depends on:
1.   $1.2 - 1.3 Billion in federal tax dollars it doesn't have secured,
2.   Hundreds of Millions in state tax dollars it doesn't have secured,
3.  Duke University donating a fair amount of land,
4.  Durham's largest commerical enterprises, with swagger, somehow doing a 180 on their loud objections to the rail plan
5.  Ignoring its much bigger brother directly to the East, Wake County's public transportation plans, which are bigger in scope and more efficient in moving commuters.

The Durham-Orange light rail is DOA.  I hope most of its backers were just trying to get Wake County on board , the rest were just starry eyed dreamers who never liked math.

 

Thanks for the post. I love having this kind of discussion on here. Some of the points you raise are excellent, while others are red herrings, IMO. 

 

Regarding the finances of this project, clearly it is a stretch to build this with the money available from the transit tax. The claim of $10,000 per resident may be technically true but at the same time is misleading. This project will be paid for over the course of many years. We are spending billions to build highway 540 in Wake. We are talking about spending billions of dollars on managed lanes on I-40. It is possible to spend a billion dollars on a single highway interchange! Infrastructure is nearly always financed with debt backed by income from the growth it generates. Both Durham and Chapel Hill are committed enough to transit that I am comfortable saying that they *can* afford to build it, even to the point of raising property taxes to cover overruns if they have to. If the NCGA would let them, residents might even approve raising their transit sales tax from 1/2 cent to 3/4 or a full cent, something which I think is unlikely in Wake for at least the next 10 years. If building light rail limits their ability to widen roads and build interchanges for a generation, then so be it. That is intentional, and it should be up to them, as a region, to make that decision. The main question in my mind, however, is the opportunity cost in terms of transit: could they get more bang for the buck if they built BRT to Chapel Hill, Regional Rail to RTP and Raleigh, and increased bus service instead?

 

Regarding growth in Chapel Hill, this is an excellent point. While Chapel Hill has claimed it will allow lots of growth and denser development in areas around the stations, and the pro-development side did score a victory with the Blue Hill district, it is far from clear that the town will be able to stick to its word on this one in spite of the strong anti-growth and anti-development headwinds. We have yet to see what will happen when the first massive rezonings come up. The jury is still out.

 

Regarding self-driving Uber Vans: Uber's very business model (and to a lesser degree, other companies like Tesla) depends on convincing investors that fully automated vehicles are right around the corner. So of course they'll say it's coming Very Very Soon(tm). On the other hand, Waymo, the company who analysts almost universally agree is the furthest down the road towards full automation, has a CEO who has gone on record saying that full automation is a LONG way off. I think this is a place where the arrogant hubris of technologists will become plain as day, in a very unpleasant way for some, when the rubber hits the road. I think this house of cards will collapse, and some investors are going to be out of a lot of money.

 

The airport argument is a tired old trope that naysayers have often used to argue against mass transit here for decades. It is unfortunate that this argument has so much traction. I think it stems from the fact that, since the airport is right between Raleigh and Durham, it seems like it should be a no brainer to connect it to a mass transit line. But there are some problems with that. Airports are usually surrounded by development unsupportive of transit for miles in every direction. Ours is no exception. RDU has several factors that make it even worse than average. The terminals are located between the runways, rather than off to the side, and the runways are oriented NE-SW which is exactly perpendicular to the NW-SE primary demand corridor between Durham and Raleigh. The 5500 acres of Umstead Park lie directly between Raleigh and the Airport. We have a rail line that is publicly owned and is quite well-located for most things between Raleigh and Durham, except the airport. Elsewhere, airport lines are usually not the first ones that get built. In Portland, the first line opened in 1986; light rail reached the airport 15 years later in 2001. Denver's light rail first opened in 1994 and reached the airport 21 years later in 2016. In Dallas, it was 18 years from 1996 to 2014. We need to have a transit plan for the airport, yes, but this dogmatic insistance that it be in the first phase is absolutely a red herring.

 

Regarding students not using transit because they seldom leave campus, I think this may be an outdated perception, or at least one that doesn't quite match with the reality of many of the institutions in our area. Duke may be an exception, but for NCSU and UNC, it is the norm for students to live off-campus after their first or second year. If there are apartments built near the light rail line, students will take advantage of it. Students are much heavier transit users than the general public for several reasons. First, cars are often too expensive for students to buy unless their parents pay for them. Second, parking on campus is expensive to use and for the unis to build. Third, all the major unis provide free transit passes to students and staff. One only has to ride a bus on Hillsborough or Franklin street to see that this is the case.

[ctl]

As a former resident of Atlanta (and frequent flyer) who lived less than a mile from a MARTA rail station and often rode MARTA to Hartsfield, I wouldn't say that mass transit at RDU is entirely a red herring. A lot of Triangle voters wouldn't use mass transit on a daily basis to get to work or school, but they would use it to reach RDU. In that way, an airport tie-in has a disproportionate impact on public perceptions of the value of mass transit. This is particularly important in the Triangle where any kind of rail-based mass transit struggles for relevance. 

[Jones_]

I keep seeing one glossy eyed person here and there, swear we'll be the Jetsons very soon with self driving cars taking over our lives. Technology is always the answer and, we are powerless to stop it. In twenty years you *might have some self driving semis on highways. There might be some cars within specialized corridors (highway exit to highway exit) or zones (say, RTP) where the destinations are well defined, the obstacles familiar and the road rules clear, but beyond that, engineers who work outside of laboratory conditions,  are telling you, to readjust the excitement meter. There are so many things to consider. Homeland security hasn't even begun to share their concerns. Nor farmers. Nor people who live in places without many real roads. And supply...who'll be setting that? How do you pay? What about people without credit cards? I can assure you 1/3 of U.S society does not have one.  

[orulz]

7 hours ago, ctl said:

As a former resident of Atlanta (and frequent flyer) who lived less than a mile from a MARTA rail station and often rode MARTA to Hartsfield, I wouldn't say that mass transit at RDU is entirely a red herring. A lot of Triangle voters wouldn't use mass transit on a daily basis to get to work or school, but they would use it to reach RDU. In that way, an airport tie-in has a disproportionate impact on public perceptions of the value of mass transit. This is particularly important in the Triangle where any kind of rail-based mass transit struggles for relevance. 

Like I said, we do need a transit plan for the airport, but insisting that it be on the first rail line is basically equivalent to insisting that we never build rail at all.

[ctl]

Day One service to RDU isn't necessary, but letting it dangle for 10, 20, 30 (?) years isn't a smart idea either.  

[orulz]

3 hours ago, ctl said:

Day One service to RDU isn't necessary, but letting it dangle for 10, 20, 30 (?) years isn't a smart idea either.  

Worked fine in Portland, Denver, Dallas, and elsewhere.

[ctl]

Well, Denver had to build 23 miles of rail to reach the airport... excusable.  The Portland situation had to overcome a referendum that failed. DFW is just a weird situation but bear in mind that a large part of the metro population lives in areas not served (or served well) by TRE, DART, or the new TEX Rail.   

[Crabpeople]

 The Durham-Orange LTR comes off as a desperate "let's build something" just to be able to say the area has a transit system.  Good points made by others that avoiding the airport is tenable.  Will this LTR alleviate traffic?  Not at all.  The most optimistic projections make that clear.  A small fraction of 1% of car trips will be saved.  While that's the main advertisement to voters and to gain general public support, those are not the real reasons for the LTR.  While people here (myself included, despite my ragging on this LTR) are fans of urbanity, we are in the minority among the general population.  $3.3 Billion is a lot to hopefully incentivize more pockets of urbanity in a low density city and anti-growth town.  And if we're being honest, that $3.3 Billion will likely head north of $4 Billion after the project begins.

I can't help looking at other numbers.  SInce 2010, Durham and Chapel Hill combined have been gaining about 5200 population in total.  That's slower yearly population gains than Cary and Holly Springs combined.  Apex will surpass Chapel Hill's population in 2-3 years.  If Chapel Hill were gaining 3500 instead of the 350 yearly population gain its had this decade, I might be quiet on this LTR.

I'm not saying do nothing.  I'm saying a few things:  why is Chapel Hill included in a rail transit system?  For UNC hospital?  I'd say Chapel Hill is included because the optics are bad for a multiple billion project that covers only 1 municipality, currently the 76th largest city.  Connecting two municipalities is much better imagery and helps fill the project out.  AKA, the LTR project needs Chapel Hill more for imagery and approval than Chapel Hill needs an LTR system.  Why are we going to have 2 separate systems in the Triangle?  Anyone who has lived here a few years can see traffic getting far worse.  I'm sure a transit system between Durham, Cary, and Raleigh would get a lot more support than it did just 10, hell 5 years ago. 

In my previous post I mentioned self-driving vehicles in 2060, not real soon.  I did mention Uber vans, but didn't say they'd be self-driving.   I suspect they'll be here well before self-driving vehicles are more than a tiny niche.   Whether van or small bus, ride sharing vehicles will take the form of truly fulfilling that term.  We'll see Uber/Lyft/other vehicles that look and operate more like shuttle buses.  Pick up 5 or 10 people in a small geographic area, then go direct to a single destination or extremely close destinations  Makes the fares cheaper, still more direct than city buses following the exact same route all day.  A term I've seen is "ride-linking".   Not just locally, but for longer trips as well.  I think we'll these ride-linking vehicles with services on board.  One ride-linking vehicle may have a masseuse on board 4-7pm.   Another may be an office/Kinkos on wheels.  Another may be used as Tinder + good coffee.  All carrying multiple people and being more direct than public transport.  Not for everyone and most people would prefer just a ride most of the time, but these have a way better shot at actually alleviating some traffic once they catch on.

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by Crabpeople

[southslider]

On 12/22/2018 at 1:58 AM, Crabpeople said:

A small fraction of 1% of car trips will be saved.  While that's the main advertisement to voters and to gain general public support, those are not the real reasons for the LTR. 
 

A much larger share of corridor trips will be saved. The real reason for the LRT is to provide a reliable spine to the redundant infrastructure needed for a more resilient economy.

[DPK]

On 12/22/2018 at 1:58 AM, Crabpeople said:

I can't help looking at other numbers.  SInce 2010, Durham and Chapel Hill combined have been gaining about 5200 population in total.  That's slower yearly population gains than Cary and Holly Springs combined.  Apex will surpass Chapel Hill's population in 2-3 years.  If Chapel Hill were gaining 3500 instead of the 350 yearly population gain its had this decade, I might be quiet on this LTR.

It kind of does annoy me slightly.  Given how utterly terrible Apex's transportation and greenway network currently is.

[Jones_]

On 12/25/2018 at 11:33 AM, DPK said:

It kind of does annoy me slightly.  Given how utterly terrible Apex's transportation and greenway network currently is.

So I went to see what they actually had for greenways. Wow...virtually nothing. So little, that they link to the ATT and Town of Cary as resources for Apex residents. All the future plans noted are to be funded by Wake County. Weak. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by Jones_

[ctl]

Fair to say that if most residents of Apex had any need or desire for mass transit, they wouldn't have settled in Apex to begin with. Same could have been said at one time of Cary, whose bus system started regularly scheduled service not that long ago. Apex will probably do something 15-20 years from now. 

[Jones_]

I think nowadays most people follow the jobs and worry bout the particulars later. Low crime and good schools are also primary drivers for where to locate. If they spend most of their non-working, waking hours commuting in a car to every thing that is facet of their lives, then that is a casualty, a trade off for the other things. It does not mean there isn't a need or desire. It is simply lower down the list. 

[DanRNC]

Don't miss the "spend my entire day in my car" lifestyle of the Triangle.  

[ctl]

Perhaps not, but from what my son in DC has said about WMATA, traveling by bus and subway there can be just as time-consuming. 

[Merthecat]

Apex is making some strides forward for bicycling facilities in the town:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article223925315.html

Their plan involves connections to the ATT, and making it easier overall to bike around the town.