Election '08: Primaries

[monsoon]

The George McGovern news is getting a lot of airplay on the news channels. Remember the nation got Richard Nixon instead. lol

[nowensone]

Gusterfell, I hear what you are saying, but it is disingenuous when news sources assert that Obama is winning because the south has a larger population of blacks. Hillary is of course more likely to attract female voters and McCain conservatives and evangelicals (for example), but that's not the issue - what they are saying isn't accurate.

40% (and I believe that is the correct number) of whites in NC voted for him, out of the total (all voters, not just the Dems). That is much higher than the statistical average, and higher still if you buy into the southern racist stereotype. So Obama practically didn't need any of the African American vote. He is not winning due to a higher percentage of Black residents.

And the point of this isn't in defending NC as some progressive state, it is to say that obviously Obama can stand on his own two feet regardless of who the average voter is, and not simply because he has the black vote in his back pocket. And I'm tired of hearing that.

[Neo]

Might I remind those conversing over the pull that Obama has with black voters that he is only half black? Why is it that it is seen as being able to pull black voters but not white? Does being black by any percentage mean that you have greater pull within that pool? I really don't understand. Obama won what, 1/3 of white voters in NC which account for ~3/4 (correct me if I'm wrong) of the NC population? The weight of the white votes have just as much pull (if not more) than those of black voters in yesterday's election.

[ironchapman]

^ I think it has a lot to do with what a person considers himself or herself. Obama maybe half-black, half-white, but he does consider himself, as far as I can tell, to be black, and, to me, many of his actions reflect his decision.

Also, Hilary still has some credible reasons for being in the race. The West Virginia and Kentucky primaries are coming up, and I think she has a good chance to win there.

[Neo]

Also, Hilary still has some credible reasons for being in the race. The West Virginia and Kentucky primaries are coming up, and I think she has a good chance to win there.

Except that there are no big wins left. West Virginia and Kentucky simply aren't enough to give her much leverage at this point in the game. She also seems to be having a hard time raising money which is a sure sign that things may be going belly up for her IMO.

[Charlotte_native]

Might I remind those conversing over the pull that Obama has with black voters that he is only half black? Why is it that it is seen as being able to pull black voters but not white? Does being black by any percentage mean that you have greater pull within that pool? I really don't understand. Obama won what, 1/3 of white voters in NC which account for ~3/4 (correct me if I'm wrong) of the NC population? The weight of the white votes have just as much pull (if not more) than those of black voters in yesterday's election.

[cityboi]

Well Obama has picked up 4 more super delegates today including one that was a Hillary backer.

I think enough super delegates will come out and put Obama over the top before June ends. Florida and Michigan will be irrelevant then.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

[Gusterfell]

40% (and I believe that is the correct number) of whites in NC voted for him, out of the total (all voters, not just the Dems). That is much higher than the statistical average, and higher still if you buy into the southern racist stereotype. So Obama practically didn't need any of the African American vote. He is not winning due to a higher percentage of Black residents.

[Gusterfell]

I am always amazed by non-Southerners attempting to give lectures to the South on race relations. Obama won. Exactly what are you arguing? That his win wasn't legitimate because a portion of the state is Black? Amazing.

[nowensone]

my figure of 36% came from CNN, but I'll go with your number as I've also heard 40% out there.

As I stated earlier, 40% is still a minority. Obama would have lost the state if his support among all voters in NC was 40%. How can you claim he didn't need any of the black vote when he lost the rest of the electorate?

When have I or anyone else (outside Hillary's campaign) ever said that he can't stand on his own without the black vote? There is a lot of gray area between that false assertion and your equally false assertion that the black vote has had nothing to do with to his success.

[monsoon]

.... Deny it all you want, but Obama loses the South without the black vote. ...

[Gusterfell]

40% among ALL voters, republican, democrat, independent, etc.

So Clinton, McCain, Huckabee, etc. all share the other 60%. If you assumed a 50-50 split between the parties that mean all else being equal he should have no more than 25%. Even if the more conservative 36% number you have seen then still significantly higher. And assuming some fair number of the Clinton supporters voted for Obama in the general election, yes, Obama might still be elected without a single black vote.

[ChiefJoJo]

Anyway, what's the point of all these implications about race? That he can't win over her supporters. Well, I don't believe that. I think if Hillary pulls out, I think a large % of her supporters will move to him, regardless of race/gender. Sure, he may have trouble with the so-called Reagan (white, working class) Democrats, and it may take some time but do not underestimate the influence of a potential coming together of Hillary and Obama camps could have. Even if Obama didn't pick Hillary for VP (would she even take it?), the power of the two of them standing on-stage together would be immense. Don't forget too, that people will remember that we've just suffered under 8 years of Bush (Iraq, Katrina, domestic spying, etc).

That's the best possible scenario... Hillary stays in for WV (win for her) to save face and extract some consessions from Obama and then on May 20 (OR, KY--likely split), she pulls out with dignity and the party begins to unite. He consults with her about VP, she declines, but campaigns for Obama with Bill in the fall. That would be a very formidable force.

[Gusterfell]

^That's a likely scenario. In Hillary's speech last night I had the impression that she was setting up just the reconciliatory tone this scenario would require. As I stated earlier, she could be out of the race soon if she keeps having prominent supporters defect, though I agree that she'll likely stay in at least through WV. Whenever she gets out, I get a strong sense that she's done attacking Obama, that here on out both campaigns will concentrate on restoring party unity.

Despite the supporters of both candidates adamantly stating that they won't back the other, I've always believed that the party would unite once there is a nominee. The tone both campaigns have taken since last night's results reinforces that belief.

[monsoon]

You're trying to set up a straw man moralistic argument here.

[Gusterfell]

^So, if you agree that the black vote is significant in NC and elsewhere in the South, and that no Democrat can win without that vote, why do you get so upset at assertions that Obama's 90+% black support has helped him sweep the South?

[nowensone]

420K Whites voted for Obama, 454K Blacks voted for Obama. The rest voted for Clinton.

[Raintree21]

^ According to this link, the breakdown is 68% white, and 21% AA, what is unclear is do they mean general population or just registered voters. It does say 'voters', but it could be an assumption based off of general pop. stats.

[nowensone]

Aah, I see where you're coming from. Obama did win around 40% of the total vote. If I remember correctly my 36% was only among white democrats. However, doesn't that 40% figure include the black vote, which we all agree was a significant percentage of Obama's total? Mathematically, it is possible for Obama to carry NC in the fall without the black vote. However, he would need huge numbers of white Democrats to turn out for him (which I do think is likely), and he would also need massive numbers of Republicans to vote for him over McCain (which I think is less likely).

I apologize if I sounded argumentative in my response earlier. I misunderstood slightly where you were coming from.

[monsoon]

... why do you get so upset at assertions that Obama's 90+% black support has helped him sweep the South?

[krazeeboi]

Also, Hilary still has some credible reasons for being in the race. The West Virginia and Kentucky primaries are coming up, and I think she has a good chance to win there.

[monsoon]

In regards to staying in the race Hillary now has two options.

1. She can stay in and hope to pull off some trick that would take the nomination away from Obama through some back room deal and/or by blooding Obama through some other attempt at scandal that the super delegates might have to give it to her. If this is her strategy then she will destroy the party.

2. Her other option is to bow out gracefully and quickly start working to get her supporters to vote for Obama. This way the party can start moving towards defeating McCain in the fall rather than continue to waste resources on this, now, fruitless battle.

Which way will Hillary go? I think her moves over the next week or so will demonstrate if she is in it for the Clintons or if she is in it for the good of the people.

I also think that dumbass Rush Limbaugh, in getting GOPers to vote for Hillary so the race will be prolonged actually did the Democrats a big favor. Obama has had the kitchen sink thrown at him and I don't see how the GOP could do anything else that might cause him not to be elected. The GOP can't run on it's record and the only game they have is another swift boat attack which isn't going to work this time. Rush actually achieved exactly opposite of what he set out to do. (Or rather what he said he set out to do. My guess is that he wants a democrat in office)

[Raintree21]

#1 can be further divided:

• Concentrate on the race issue in the party by going with the argument that Obama won't win white working-class voters

• Continue to attempt to get Florida and Michigan votes to count

Clinton is supposedly drafting a letter saying that not allowing the Florida and Michigan votes to count is a civil rights and voting rights issue.

[ChiefJoJo]

^ At this point, Obama is in the driver's seat so much, MI and FL may not matter. As my above scenario lays out, WV and KY go to Hillary, but then Obama picks up OR and likely on that day (5/20), picks up over 50%+1 of the available elected delegates... Obama will not agree to a compromise for MI and FL which hurts him, but the longer the race goes and he keeps his lead, the less FL and MI matter.

I heard just this morning that MI's proposal is to allocate 69 delegates to Hillary and 59 to Obama (net +10 for her). Don't know where they got those numbers from, because his name was not even on the ballot. FL could be allocated 60/40 Hillary, and I do not believe it would matter in the larger picture. In any case, losing a few delegates here or there still keeps him on top for the nomination, and you will see more and more superdelegates move to him as his candidacy becomes inevitable. McGovern already switched yesterday.

Barring a complete meltdown, she simply cannot win, and there's no way in hell the superdelegates will save her at this point. Not even the Democrats are that stupid.

[cityboi]

The truth of the matter is that this thing was over back in February when Obama won all those states by big whopping margins. I think if Rev Wright had been brought out in January we could be seeing a very different scenario today. But the bottom line is that this nomination belongs to Obama. Everything including the kitchen sink has been thrown at him and he has wheathered the storm. In my book that makes him a great candidate to compete against John McCain.