615 South College (Portman Office Tower near Westin)

[jordan704]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

^^ I know WeWork very well myself.  It is just a very high density environment that outside of other co-working spaces would not be done in other more typical office layouts. 

An architectural firm would need much larger desks and workspaces, more conference rooms etc.  It says Little has 67,000 sq ft now and will have 60,000 sq ft at 615 South College on 2.5 floors. 

Yeah I don't remember saying anything about Little or any other space than WeWork. Just stating the capacity of a floor in the building that was asked about.

[KJHburg]

^^ No problem just pointing on why another type of user would need a lot more space per person.  See  you up at WeWork for that coffee is great. 

[AuLukey]

I’ve been in Little’s current establishment and I’d consider them very sparsely spread out compared to your usual office. They have a LOT of creative space and large areas for models. I’d cut your usually cubicle population density by 80% at least.

[Guest]

https://www.portmanusa.com/en/projects/residential/one-charlotte/

I just saw Portman has a page for the defunct One Charlotte. Damn, so sexy :-(

[Scribe]

Look at that... someone actually proposed putting a massive parking garage underground!

 

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Scribe said:

Look at that... someone actually proposed putting a massive parking garage underground!

 

but also thought they could sell 99 condos at around $3M. So clearly weren't all that realistic.

[Scribe]

4 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

but also thought they could sell 99 condos at around $3M.

mundane details! You gotta look at the big picture

[atlrvr]

Ummmm...the parking garage exists and is already underground.

 

[Hunted]

I’m hoping someone will at least salvage the roof design for another building Uptown.

[cjd5050]

23 hours ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

but also thought they could sell 99 condos at around $3M. So clearly weren't all that realistic.

Honest question.  Is Charlotte really that far off from being able to do this, at least for 1 building?    The condos were supposed to range from 2,000 to 8,000 sf.    There is a 4,400 sf condo on the market now for $3.8M, a 3,800 sf condo for $2.3M and a 2,060 sf condo for $850k right now on the market.  So it's not like the price point it out of the question.  Right?  It's just a matter of the number of buyers.   With the population gains is it really that crazy to think ~10 years?  

[Guest]

Just now, cjd5050 said:

Honest question.  Is Charlotte really that far off from being able to do this, at least for 1 building?    The condos were supposed to range from 2,000 to 8,000 sf.    There is a 4,400 sf condo on the market now for $3.8M, a 3,800 sf condo for $2.3M and a 2,060 sf condo for $850k right now on the market.  So it's not like the price point it out of the question.  Right?  It's just a matter of the number of buyers.   With the population gains is it really that crazy to think ~10 years?  

Charlotte could sell 99 houses wth yards at this price point. I don't think theres enough panthers, hornets, bachelor lawyers, hedge fund managers & bankers to sell that many condos at that price point.

[asthasr]

Transit is not good enough, and population pressure is not great enough, to make a volume of premium condos viable. I think Charlotte could support a lot more "townhomes" than it currently has, though.

[CLT2014]

2 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

Honest question.  Is Charlotte really that far off from being able to do this, at least for 1 building?    The condos were supposed to range from 2,000 to 8,000 sf.    There is a 4,400 sf condo on the market now for $3.8M, a 3,800 sf condo for $2.3M and a 2,060 sf condo for $850k right now on the market.  So it's not like the price point it out of the question.  Right?  It's just a matter of the number of buyers.   With the population gains is it really that crazy to think ~10 years?  

Look at how long those examples have been sitting on the market (200+ days). There are typically only 3 - 5 luxury $700k+ listings in Uptown at any one time and many of them take 200 - 350 days to sell (if they don't get de-listed and go rental).  Then imagine flooding the market with an entire building at once... if the demand was there today the units would be moving, but even today with limited supply the luxury units take a while to sell.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

Look at how long those examples have been sitting on the market (200+ days). There are typically only 3 - 5 luxury $700k+ listings in Uptown at any one time and many of them take 200 - 350 days to sell (if they don't get de-listed and go rental).  Then imagine flooding the market with an entire building at once... if the demand was there today the units would be moving, but even today with limited supply the luxury units take a while to sell.

meanwhile the Avenue moves 3-4 a month at a much more reasonable pricepoint. Unfortunately developing the Avenue now would require almost 30% more money to develop, and thus 50% more expensive psf in the end.

[KJHburg]

The best hope in the near future and I mean 3-5 years for new condos uptown in a high rise would be atop a luxury hotel aka like W hotel or some other luxury brand.  The market for high end $1 million plus condos is such rare thin air you would need an oxygen tank to breathe LOL.     That is why you do see a few boutique condo projects in Myers Park and other high end neighborhoods but those are very small number.  

Bringing it back to 615 South College does any know when Little will be moving into their offices?  This tower is 80% leased now so it will be just smaller tenants here from now on. 

[cjd5050]

44 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

Look at how long those examples have been sitting on the market (200+ days). There are typically only 3 - 5 luxury $700k+ listings in Uptown at any one time and many of them take 200 - 350 days to sell (if they don't get de-listed and go rental).  Then imagine flooding the market with an entire building at once... if the demand was there today the units would be moving, but even today with limited supply the luxury units take a while to sell.

 

3 hours ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

Charlotte could sell 99 houses wth yards at this price point. I don't think theres enough panthers, hornets, bachelor lawyers, hedge fund managers & bankers to sell that many condos at that price point.

I get that.  I didn't suggest today.  I was asking about how long it would take and not if Charlotte was there now....

Charlotte's expected to add a 500k people from 2014 to 2030.  At some point the scale is going to tip and 100 high end condo units won't be a problem.  Was just curious as to what opinions were on when the tipping point would happen.  

 

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

 

I get that.  I didn't suggest today.  I was asking about how long it would take and not if Charlotte was there now....

Charlotte's expected to add a 500k people from 2014 to 2030.  At some point the scale is going to tip and 100 high end condo units won't be a problem.  Was just curious as to what opinions were on when the tipping point would happen.  

 

There will have to be a big time shift in peoples attitudes. I don't seen any indication that shift has happened, and it could be 2035-45 easily before thats possible.

[asthasr]

The trouble is this: if I were buying a condo, I would be looking at a city where I can go downstairs and catch transit to where I need to go, easily. I would want amenities right by where I live, as well. In a walkable, non-American city where I spend a couple of months a year, I can walk downstairs from the house and go to dozens of different restaurants, cafes, and stores within comfortable walking distance. A small supermarket is just up the street. A major market is three stops away by bus. A large supermarket is four stops in the other direction, or I can take a fifty cent taxi ride to a choice of six or seven others. A two dollar taxi ride will get us to two different large shopping malls with movie theaters, an ice skating rink, restaurants and so on. In essence, nothing requires a car.

In Charlotte, unless you're willing to live a very limited life, you need to have a car or be willing to throw away hours trying to navigate our bus system. The cheapest Uber I've ever gotten is $7, and taxis are more than that. It's a hard sell for most people, given that they're going to need to have a car anyway, to then live in a cramped apartment uptown when it comes with no real amenities.

[cjd5050]

8 minutes ago, asthasr said:

The trouble is this: if I were buying a condo, I would be looking at a city where I can go downstairs and catch transit to where I need to go, easily. I would want amenities right by where I live, as well. In a walkable, non-American city where I spend a couple of months a year, I can walk downstairs from the house and go to dozens of different restaurants, cafes, and stores within comfortable walking distance. A small supermarket is just up the street. A major market is three stops away by bus. A large supermarket is four stops in the other direction, or I can take a fifty cent taxi ride to a choice of six or seven others. A two dollar taxi ride will get us to two different large shopping malls with movie theaters, an ice skating rink, restaurants and so on. In essence, nothing requires a car.

In Charlotte, unless you're willing to live a very limited life, you need to have a car or be willing to throw away hours trying to navigate our bus system. The cheapest Uber I've ever gotten is $7, and taxis are more than that. It's a hard sell for most people, given that they're going to need to have a car anyway, to then live in a cramped apartment uptown when it comes with no real amenities.

Never been in a city with $0.50 taxi rides.  Don't most have minimum fares?   Besides, people who purchase luxury condos don't take the subway or taxis...  Don't know how you shop but I get frustrated with the amount of bags and large items I need to walk from my driveway to my mud room.  Would never consider doing that on mass transit either.   I also don't think 2,000 sf is cramped for a condo.  

My experience is anecdotal of course but coming from San Diego living downtown was unheard of in the 90s.  When they built the two Harbor Club towers for the Americas Cup in the early 90s they had people renting for dirt cheap.  Urban myth is that someone was living in the penthouse for $100 a month.  Before that the the only condo tower was built in the middle 80s.  Nobody wanted to live downtown because San Diego had a culture of beach communities and that's where money lived.  Then several things happened and the market took off around 2005 and people started cashing in their homes in La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe to live in luxury high-rises.   The mall, movie theaters, grocery stores, restaurants and mass transit that you list as precursors had existed the entire time.  

I guess my point is at some point the wealthy who call multi-million dollar estates and mansions home are likely going to want to downsize.  Not the quality of living but the size of residence.  

I think Uptown is pretty darn cool and if I was at the stage in my life I'd have no issue living there and feel it was comparable enough to downtown San Diego.  That said, I don't measure Charlotte to NYC or London...which seems to be the case here.  Expectations v. reality I suppose.  

 

 

[asthasr]

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

Never been in a city with $0.50 taxi rides.  Don't most have minimum fares?

Sure! They're based on cost of living, though. The city I'm talking about is Ho Chi Minh City, and a base Uber fare is about VND10k.

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

Besides, people who purchase luxury condos don't take the subway or taxis...  Don't know how you shop but I get frustrated with the amount of bags and large items I need to walk from my driveway to my mud room. 

That's true, in places where owning a car is obligatory. They do, however, take taxis in very dense cities where owning a car is not obligatory.  At least, if we're talking about "normal well-off people" and not the "uber-wealthy who have to worry about security constantly." (And if we're talking about them, it's hard to plan around them because there are so few.)

In my experience in an urban environment with frequent (super-)markets, people buy very little at a time. A couple of bags, enough to cook their next meal and perhaps a couple of pantry items. I've never had any problems carrying it (even on a motorbike).

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

I also don't think 2,000 sf is cramped for a condo.

2000 sq. ft. is extremely large, for what I'm thinking. 90m², around 1000 sq. ft, is considered a large and comfortable apartment in most Asian cities (even in the luxury market).

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

I guess my point is at some point the wealthy who call multi-million dollar estates and mansions home are likely going to want to downsize.  Not the quality of living but the size of residence.  

I think Uptown is pretty darn cool and if I was at the stage in my life I'd have no issue living there and feel it was comparable enough to downtown San Diego.  That said, I don't measure Charlotte to NYC or London...which seems to be the case here.  Expectations v. reality I suppose.  

I don't really want to compare us to NYC/London. Those are exceptional markets. We have to be realistic about American cities: we have an abundance of land, a car-first assumption, and extremely low density. To change that, and attract urban dwellers, we have to think about our housing market as being aimed at the upper middle class (white collar bankers and professionals), young professionals, and small families. Luxury condos just won't cut it. We will need more transit, more amenities, urban schools, and reasonable numbers of modestly sized 3BR and 4BR townhouses. Otherwise we're stuck in a situation where we have a growing market regionally, with hundreds of thousands of people moving in, but a tiny demand for available uptown housing because "uptown" means "wants to go to the club every night" at the moment.

[ES Charlotte]

A few thoughts on this...

The demand for condos and luxury units is not tiny.

Inventory and turnover is often low for luxury units. The Portman concept was a pipe dream, but we could easily sustain a mid size development with 14 properly priced units over 1mil+ (think The Trust x 2) in uptown. Construction costs are the barrier and will continue to be.

I've lived uptown for 10 years. I rarely leave 277 unless I need to shop for soft goods or apple products. It's no NYC, but it is not a limited life.

The $3.8M 3,800 sf condo = grossly over priced

The $2.3M condo = incredibly unique, needs the perfect buyer to deal with Fahrenheit, and is currently a sh*t show on the inside which is a major turnoff to anyone at that price point.

Without considering pocket listings... 32 condos over $700k have been on the market within the last year. 6 were expired or withdrawn for various (rather specific) reasons. That doesn't suggest the market isn't viable and also suggests they typically turn over rather quickly if they are properly priced. 

I don't believe many of the people in Charlotte purchasing a condo in uptown (at that price point) care about a $7 Uber or public transportation.

Three vodkas in

[cjd5050]

1 hour ago, asthasr said:

Sure! They're based on cost of living, though. The city I'm talking about is Ho Chi Minh City, and a base Uber fare is about VND10k.

OK.  I was only considering cities on a US level.

1 hour ago, asthasr said:

That's true, in places where owning a car is obligatory. They do, however, take taxis in very dense cities where owning a car is not obligatory.  At least, if we're talking about "normal well-off people" and not the "uber-wealthy who have to worry about security constantly." (And if we're talking about them, it's hard to plan around them because there are so few.)

Fair enough.  

1 hour ago, asthasr said:

In my experience in an urban environment with frequent (super-)markets, people buy very little at a time. A couple of bags, enough to cook their next meal and perhaps a couple of pantry items. I've never had any problems carrying it (even on a motorbike).

I know  I am in the minority here in thinking that life outside of dense megalopolises is acceptable or even cool but shopping every day seems like a miserable lifestyle.   I guess fancy people in big cities don't user paper towels, toilet paper, laundry detergent and purchase any sort of liquids larger than a pint. 

1 hour ago, asthasr said:

I don't really want to compare us to NYC/London. Those are exceptional markets. We have to be realistic about American cities: we have an abundance of land, a car-first assumption, and extremely low density. To change that, and attract urban dwellers, we have to think about our housing market as being aimed at the upper middle class (white collar bankers and professionals), young professionals, and small families. Luxury condos just won't cut it. 

Your comment seems to be contradictory in terms of shooting for upper middle class but luxury not being the goal.   Maybe I have a broader and more Charlotte specific idea of luxury condos.  I think in the Charlotte market a 'luxury condo' would go for between $1 m  to $3 m.  There would be a tier above this but let's call that stupid rich for the region.   I don't see how a upper middle class white collar banker spending $1.5 million to live in Meyers Park wouldn't be in the $1.5 condo market if they did want to live in a condo.  

1 hour ago, asthasr said:

We will need more transit, more amenities, urban schools, and reasonable numbers of modestly sized 3BR and 4BR townhouses. Otherwise we're stuck in a situation where we have a growing market regionally, with hundreds of thousands of people moving in, but a tiny demand for available uptown housing because "uptown" means "wants to go to the club every night" at the moment.

I am all for more transit but the pragmatist in me says having a good 2nd plan or even a plan that's probable to solving traffic issues is to put as many people in as little space as possible and that's done with condos.  I like townhouses but in the big picture they are like a diet coke with a big mac.  

I don't think the location of the schools is the problem.  The quality on the other hand...  

I do agree that Uptown has a 'things to do besides clubs' problem.  In many cities, downtown equals water views but we don't have that natural attraction.  So it will have to be made.  I would say retail but that might not even be a thing in 30 years.  Maybe more parks?   

 

 

[asthasr]

12 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

I know  I am in the minority here in thinking that life outside of dense megalopolises is acceptable or even cool but shopping every day seems like a miserable lifestyle.   I guess fancy people in big cities don't user paper towels, toilet paper, laundry detergent and purchase any sort of liquids larger than a pint. 

It's not, because it is so quick. It's actually hard to explain how fast it is until you experience it.

12 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

Your comment seems to be contradictory in terms of shooting for upper middle class but luxury not being the goal.   Maybe I have a broader and more Charlotte specific idea of luxury condos.  I think in the Charlotte market a 'luxury condo' would go for between $1 m  to $3 m.  There would be a tier above this but let's call that stupid rich for the region.   I don't see how a upper middle class white collar banker spending $1.5 million to live in Meyers Park wouldn't be in the $1.5 condo market if they did want to live in a condo.  

I don't think I'm being contradictory: I don't think Charlotte will support those condos, because it cannot offer the urban amenities that people expect for those demographics. My point is that the (much more numerous) upper middle class (not rich) people have certain expectations that cannot be met in most American cities at the moment. Furthermore, I'd like to define "upper middle class." When I say that, I mean people whose household income is, say, $150-300k, not usually the people who are in the market for $1.5 million Myers Park houses.

12 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

I am all for more transit but the pragmatist in me says having a good 2nd plan or even a plan that's probable to solving traffic issues is to put as many people in as little space as possible and that's done with condos.  I like townhouses but in the big picture they are like a diet coke with a big mac.  

This actually is a misconception! Condos are one part of density, sure, and ultimately are the highest density if you pack them in, but extremely high density can be achieved with "row houses." This is getting off topic. I will probably make a post about this in the "Learning from Other Places" thread in the Coffee House.

[cjd5050]

14 minutes ago, asthasr said:

I will probably make a post about this in the "Learning from Other Places" thread in the Coffee House.

Please do.  I am enjoying this but agree it's getting off topic for this particular thread.

[KJHburg]

Information about Regions Bank and a nugget of information I gleaned is they are launching a sales and trading operation there in addition to their regular bank functions.   https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180430005646/en/Modern-Space.-Expanded-Services.-Regions-Bank-Teams    Hopefully all this will mean some job growth.