Hampton Roads Housing/Real estate/and Economy

[urbanvb]

And Richmond is home to many corporate HQ's where our area just has a couple.

[rusthebuss]

politics is why coupe!

[Telmnstr]

Did you write this article Tel?

No! Someone else linked to it from www.thehousingbubbleblog.com ... the crazy part is, it's not visible from the homepage of PilotOnline.com, so I totally missed it.

Very interesting stuff though. The 600K houses will become 400K houses, and 400K houses will become $300K houses.

[rusthebuss]

No! Someone else linked to it from www.thehousingbubbleblog.com ... the crazy part is, it's not visible from the homepage of PilotOnline.com, so I totally missed it.

Very interesting stuff though. The 600K houses will become 400K houses, and 400K houses will become $300K houses.

I doubt they will drop anywhere close to those numbers

[Telmnstr]

I doubt they will drop anywhere close to those numbers

I dunno, who wants to buy a "new" house that has been sitting for 6 years? At the sales rate of 11 per year (of course, it was only summer, but that is the most active selling season), that is 9 years of inventory.

In other markets companies like Centex have done $100K off sales. The other recent buyers roll into lawsuit mode, crying about the devaluation of their properties. I don't think it holds up in court though.

Builders build. They have to clear it off of their books. The McMansions will put pressure on the 400K houses. Not unless wages shoot up, but that is very unlikely because the fed wants to protect the value of the dollar.

[hoobo]

Yeah, I've seen the ads for San Diego condos. They're throwing in everything to get people to buy.

But I have to ask about what is the real value of these homes. I saw the assessment for my parents home online as well as other homes in their neighborhood, and it was about $280k. However, when I was home in May, I saw some homes for sale including one on their street going for close to $400k. So we have market value versus assessor value. A 33% mark-up seems nutty to me. I'm not sure what the historical mark-up is, though. I'm still sticking by no bubble for most markets theory including even HR. But that doesn't mean that prices can't stay flat for the next few years until assessed values go up to within 15% of market values.

Finally, a note on commercial construction. An article in the LA Times talked about job growth focusing on construction jobs. Home building jobs have plummetted but commercial has gone up. However, the net is negative so commercial contractors are having a tough time meeting the demand for new construction. Also, commercial and high-rise residential construction requires more skilled workers and therefore they are harder to come by. This problem can't be isolated to California only. Maybe the reason Granby and Hilton are slow-going is that they are unable to get reasonable bids for the jobs if they are receiving bids at all.

[erdogs]

Assessed value is always lower than the actual market value. The assessed value of my home back in VB was $175,000 but sold for nearly 2/3 more than that. Homes are still way over valued, but value is in the eye of the beholder. On long Island my home would have been 3 times that much. Face it the market value is here to stay as long as people are here to afford it.

[spiker3]

Except that in Hampton Roads, many agents, and as a result sellers convince themselves that selling below assessed prices make them 'gems' that are going to be scooped off the market. In HR i'd approximate that 2/3s the houses on the market now have concessions of some kind coming from sellers/builders, between closing cost assistance, appliances or electronics convey with the property. It's balanced between sellers and buyers for now, but looking around at real estate websites, like realestatejournal and yahoo real estate, etc, the 'experts' are gearing up for a foreclosure blowout. I saw one statistic with the ARMs adjustment that over $1.5 TRILLION worth of ARMs will adjust at the end of this year to early next year, pricing the mortgages out of reason.

[rusthebuss]

I really hope that they put a permanent Farmers market DT with all the residents coming DT.

[okinawatyphoon]

I really hope that they put a permanent Farmers market DT with all the residents coming DT.

Well with the Harbor Heights grocery store the need for a permanent farmer's market will be much less. As far as I know, isn't the Farmer's Market there just to fill the need before the grocery store opens? Or is there a lot of difference between the coming store and the current Farmer's Market?

[rusthebuss]

Well with the Harbor Heights grocery store the need for a permanent farmer's market will be much less. As far as I know, isn't the Farmer's Market there just to fill the need before the grocery store opens? Or is there a lot of difference between the coming store and the current Farmer's Market?

I think there is room for a farmers market and that grocery store. Farmers market wouldn't just serve DT residents.

[Telmnstr]

Except that in Hampton Roads, many agents, and as a result sellers convince themselves that selling below assessed prices make them 'gems' that are going to be scooped off the market. In HR i'd approximate that 2/3s the houses on the market now have concessions of some kind coming from sellers/builders, between closing cost assistance, appliances or electronics convey with the property. It's balanced between sellers and buyers for now, but looking around at real estate websites, like realestatejournal and yahoo real estate, etc, the 'experts' are gearing up for a foreclosure blowout. I saw one statistic with the ARMs adjustment that over $1.5 TRILLION worth of ARMs will adjust at the end of this year to early next year, pricing the mortgages out of reason.

Amen brother, I laid it out on Craigslist the other day. Many of the middle of the road houses for rent in Hampton Roads require a annual gross household income of around $180K. I have friends that are making $60K+ that are scratching their heads because the rents are so high. Obviously this follows the high cost of housing. Many indicators point to an upcoming recession though.

USA just does't manufacture that much, we've taught our competitors how to build better products and are rapidly turning them into our "knowedlge" workers. This doesn't leave much.

As far as houses, just start asking owners of house's if they could afford their properties at the prices they are asking. They say no. "Glad I got in when I did."

HR is going to crash, it's going to crash hard, and it's already happening. Main stream media isn't talking about it, but the numbers tell a story. And we haven't even started with the ARM resets. People will get forclosed, the rich will swoop in and buy up the houses for pennies, and get richer. Last year there were funds starting with investors beginning to prepare for the slaughter. Check out the news in Arizona, Florida, San Diego, Boston.

And you know what? It's a good thing for HR. First we need to beat down the greed. People are lazy and greedy, everyone has these expectations of retiring rich for doing nothing. 100% profit in 2 years on a used house isn't proper.

The high cost of housing makes our region very unattractive for businesses. No one benefits with so much money going into basic housing.

Also remember that housing downturn is going to kill lots of other jobs. This is bad. The crazier part is many of the people drunk their own kool aid. Real estate agents own lots of properties bought on leverage. You can see em trying to flip em on craigs. Mortgage brokers, etc.

[rusthebuss]

Amen brother, I laid it out on Craigslist the other day. Many of the middle of the road houses for rent in Hampton Roads require a annual gross household income of around $180K. I have friends that are making $60K+ that are scratching their heads because the rents are so high. Obviously this follows the high cost of housing. Many indicators point to an upcoming recession though.

USA just does't manufacture that much, we've taught our competitors how to build better products and are rapidly turning them into our "knowedlge" workers. This doesn't leave much.

As far as houses, just start asking owners of house's if they could afford their properties at the prices they are asking. They say no. "Glad I got in when I did."

HR is going to crash, it's going to crash hard, and it's already happening. Main stream media isn't talking about it, but the numbers tell a story. And we haven't even started with the ARM resets. People will get forclosed, the rich will swoop in and buy up the houses for pennies, and get richer. Last year there were funds starting with investors beginning to prepare for the slaughter. Check out the news in Arizona, Florida, San Diego, Boston.

And you know what? It's a good thing for HR. First we need to beat down the greed. People are lazy and greedy, everyone has these expectations of retiring rich for doing nothing. 100% profit in 2 years on a used house isn't proper.

The high cost of housing makes our region very unattractive for businesses. No one benefits with so much money going into basic housing.

Also remember that housing downturn is going to kill lots of other jobs. This is bad. The crazier part is many of the people drunk their own kool aid. Real estate agents own lots of properties bought on leverage. You can see em trying to flip em on craigs. Mortgage brokers, etc.

I make 60K+ and I just bought my house a year ago. When shopping I didn't see all of this crap that you speak of. I think your friends are looking way beyond their means. Everyone always looks for their dream home but want it for 150K or less. All I have to say is live within your means.

[spiker3]

Rus, i agree with living within your means, but in this market your means does not carry you to where it used to. I make 46K a year, more than enough to purchase a home in most markets...except Hampton Roads does not qualify under most markets. The only homes currently priced in my range are garbage cape cod homes in rundown parts of Norfolk, 'renovated' condos that renovations simply involved painting and new carpet, or shoddy new construction work in South Norfolk. Currently i'm only paying $690/month in rent for a 3BR in West Ghent on Hampton Blvd, a pretty sweel deal. I don't have the pressure to get into a home that i don't want to get into because my housing costs are so low. I'll gladly pay less than 700 a month in rent rather than pay a $1300 mortgage for a home that isn't worth more than $800 a month.

The market is finally balancing out; established condos are coming down below $200K, SFH are on the market longer, prices are slowly being adjusted. But too many agents and new sellers have their heads in the sand in regards to the market. Since their neighbor sold his place last year for 100K over assesment, they can easily get $125K now, right? Telmnstr mentioned craigslist, look at the inventory on there. Homes that post pictures look awful, rundown roofs, landscaping, presentation wise are a mess, and they're asking 265K, 285K, 315K. I'd love to live in my dream home, but i'm also a realist. I know my first house is not going to be my last, and more than likely not a long term residence. I look forward to living in downtown, that's my goal, but the market's heading downward, slowly, yet new construction prices are going to opposite way. Sooner or later they're going to price themselves out of their market, compounded with the market's further deterioration and excess supply. That's when i'll get the condo that i'm looking for.

It's just frustrating because the writing is virtually on the wall, yet agents and buyers don't see it and don't realize it. It takes their house to be on the market for 4 or 5 months before they realize....wow, i've got to cut the price, i need to give concessions, i need to offer closing assistance. I'm not saying the sky is falling, i don't think HR is in for a hard hard crash, but i do believe there will be a continual decline. The median salary in HR is in the 29-32K range, yet the median home price is 225K. That math does not add up. And sooner or later the math is going to burn alot people. Thankfully i won't be one of them.

Edited August 27, 2006 by spiker3

[rusthebuss]

Actually the median income for HR is in the 40K range. We had that posted somewhere in here.

[Sky06]

Yeh, our dollar doesn't carry us as far as it used to when it comes to housing. But this area has a tremendous amount of options and variety of price ranges and neighborhoods. You can find inexpensive homes in great neighborhoods as well as expensive homes in others. You just have to look for the right place to get what's in your budget. Sometimes it means going to a less expensive city or finding an older neighborhood with less amenities nearby. The "bargains" or at least more reasonable prices are still out there. Tell a realtor what you want, and they'll find it.

[lammius]

$42,448 is the median household income in HR ($31,815 for Norfolk)

$20,333 is the median per capita income in HR ($17,372 for Norfolk)

Census 2000

[hoobo]

$42,448 is the median household income in HR ($31,815 for Norfolk)

$20,333 is the median per capita income in HR ($17,372 for Norfolk)

Census 2000

Those numbers are hard to believe. That would mean that most people earned about $10 an hour in 2000. What's even more bizarre is that the BEA keeps a separate set of numbers. In 2004, that bureau put HR's per cap income at $31,811. If both are correct, then that would mean income rose 12% per year between 2000 and 2004. Also, as I understand it, per capita income is not a median, mean, or mode. It is the total income of an area (city, county, MSA, or state, etc.) divided by the population.

[Telmnstr]

Farm fresh site? Where exactly is this site?

Someone told me there was some talk of the Levins brass bed building or something, but it isn't going to happen?

I dunno, $2000/month apartments. That would pretty much require a 6 figure gross household income for proper affordability. They have to remember that renters aren't homebuyers, and can't get teaser rates on their rents for 2 years, and worry about rate adjustments in 2 years.

There is a number of fancy condos for rent showing up from Granby Street in the $1500/1600 range. These are the same ones that were trying to be sold for like $400k and crap. That is a loss, and I still don't see renters.

I live in a pretty fancy, supposidly desireable building. Rents are clocked around $1200/mo for two bedrooms. When they moved to this, we saw like 4 of the units empty out. I think the greedy landlords are hitting the breaking points of the renters.

Many of people bought in recently, even if they shouldn't have. Even though people are only going to live here 2 or 3 years, they still buy properties after seeing the huge appreciation over the past few years. Generally the 6% realtor fees coming in, and 6% realtor fees selling would kill the idea of buying for short term. But worse times have been forgotten.

I'm wondering how the sales are going down for the condos along ?Bousch? street. I need to tour the sales pavillions one day.

[rusthebuss]

Farm fresh site? Where exactly is this site?

Someone told me there was some talk of the Levins brass bed building or something, but it isn't going to happen?

I dunno, $2000/month apartments. That would pretty much require a 6 figure gross household income for proper affordability. They have to remember that renters aren't homebuyers, and can't get teaser rates on their rents for 2 years, and worry about rate adjustments in 2 years.

There is a number of fancy condos for rent showing up from Granby Street in the $1500/1600 range. These are the same ones that were trying to be sold for like $400k and crap. That is a loss, and I still don't see renters.

I live in a pretty fancy, supposidly desireable building. Rents are clocked around $1200/mo for two bedrooms. When they moved to this, we saw like 4 of the units empty out. I think the greedy landlords are hitting the breaking points of the renters.

Many of people bought in recently, even if they shouldn't have. Even though people are only going to live here 2 or 3 years, they still buy properties after seeing the huge appreciation over the past few years. Generally the 6% realtor fees coming in, and 6% realtor fees selling would kill the idea of buying for short term. But worse times have been forgotten.

I'm wondering how the sales are going down for the condos along ?Bousch? street. I need to tour the sales pavillions one day.

You just don't give it a rest do you? Its going on the old Farm Fresh site and not the Levins site.

I emailed someone and hopefully will get some info that I desire.

Most of these developments are not for the avg. family. This is for some of the high end that has been lacking in this city.

[erdogs]

There is a demand for this type of high end apartments. There are very few to speak of in the HR market. This isn't like building condo's where you have a lot of speculators looking to earn a quik buck by flipping. I have no dought that if the demand wasn't there any developer in their right mind would make that gamble.

Tel, you really need to get out of the house more. If you keeping sitting there and stewing on all this your head might start a melt down. We may have to call the people at Eastern State hospital to come get you. They have these nice white jackets for you to wear!

[Marco757]

Farm fresh site? Where exactly is this site?

Someone told me there was some talk of the Levins brass bed building or something, but it isn't going to happen?

I dunno, $2000/month apartments. That would pretty much require a 6 figure gross household income for proper affordability. They have to remember that renters aren't homebuyers, and can't get teaser rates on their rents for 2 years, and worry about rate adjustments in 2 years.

There is a number of fancy condos for rent showing up from Granby Street in the $1500/1600 range. These are the same ones that were trying to be sold for like $400k and crap. That is a loss, and I still don't see renters.

I live in a pretty fancy, supposidly desireable building. Rents are clocked around $1200/mo for two bedrooms. When they moved to this, we saw like 4 of the units empty out. I think the greedy landlords are hitting the breaking points of the renters.

Many of people bought in recently, even if they shouldn't have. Even though people are only going to live here 2 or 3 years, they still buy properties after seeing the huge appreciation over the past few years. Generally the 6% realtor fees coming in, and 6% realtor fees selling would kill the idea of buying for short term. But worse times have been forgotten.

I'm wondering how the sales are going down for the condos along ?Bousch? street. I need to tour the sales pavillions one day.

Where do you live in Norfolk? The site is at the corner of Llewellyn and 21st. It's a done deal and are breaking ground this fall..I think...someone can correct me. I'm guessing the $2,000.00 is for a two bedroom which isn't that bad. The demand for high-end rental property is high, there simply is not enough of it in Norfolk and that's why they are building it.

What lofts are you talking about? The Cooke and Neff ones? I cannot speak to those particular lofts, but any lofts for sale in downtown still go for a premium. I live in the Hecht building (first loft coversion in Norfolk) and one just sold downstairs for 325k (880 square feet). I purchased my loft last September and it's almost appreciated a full 20%. Sure the market has slowed, but so what. If you buy downtown you buy smart.

[hoobo]

Farm fresh site? Where exactly is this site?

Someone told me there was some talk of the Levins brass bed building or something, but it isn't going to happen?

I dunno, $2000/month apartments. That would pretty much require a 6 figure gross household income for proper affordability. They have to remember that renters aren't homebuyers, and can't get teaser rates on their rents for 2 years, and worry about rate adjustments in 2 years.

There is a number of fancy condos for rent showing up from Granby Street in the $1500/1600 range. These are the same ones that were trying to be sold for like $400k and crap. That is a loss, and I still don't see renters.

I live in a pretty fancy, supposidly desireable building. Rents are clocked around $1200/mo for two bedrooms. When they moved to this, we saw like 4 of the units empty out. I think the greedy landlords are hitting the breaking points of the renters.

Many of people bought in recently, even if they shouldn't have. Even though people are only going to live here 2 or 3 years, they still buy properties after seeing the huge appreciation over the past few years. Generally the 6% realtor fees coming in, and 6% realtor fees selling would kill the idea of buying for short term. But worse times have been forgotten.

I'm wondering how the sales are going down for the condos along ?Bousch? street. I need to tour the sales pavillions one day.

Here we go again. The article stated that rents have not yet been determined but that luxury apts were going for $2000. That is probably for 3 bedrooms. The TC Cosmo rents 3 bedrooms for between $2000-2300. People renting for that much are either groups of young professionals so yeah, their combined household income would approach $150,000 or more or they are well-to-do singles/couples who believe they can do better with stocks than property.

[rusthebuss]

Here we go again.

I was thinking the samething!

[erdogs]

www.pilotonline.com Good news. Someone wake up Tel! Edited September 8, 2006 by erdogs