Violent Crime in Charlotte

[Professor]

On 6/20/2023 at 10:37 AM, kermit said:

Not Charlotte specific but related to how crime is discussed in the media. Don't forget that there is lots of money to be made and political points to be scored by making cities appear to be more dangerous than they actually are.

 

 

How does the number of murders corelate with the number of shootings? It seems that there are 5 people shot for every one that dies. Maybe focus should be on shootings and not murders so much. 

[kermit]

17 hours ago, Larry Singer said:

How does the number of murders corelate with the number of shootings? It seems that there are 5 people shot for every one that dies. Maybe focus should be on shootings and not murders so much. 

Yea, you are probably right. It was crazy of me to think that Murders and shootings might be correlated.

Please share with us how a 12% year-to-date, decline in murder (on pace to be the single largest annual decline in the murder rate ever) is somehow irrelevant. I find your explicit suggestion that murders don't really matter makes your  whaaddaboutism simultaneously inhumane and comical — something I didn’t think was possible.

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by kermit

[kermit]

These data are from 2020 but are nonetheless a helpful illustration of the “out of control” volumes of violent crime in Charlotte (or Durham or Wake)

Mecklenburg weighs in at #31 (ish). It is a relatively high homicide urban county in NC, but 1/3 the rate of the leading county (Robeson). Why is it that we don’t hear more about the danger of living in a rural area?

The media plays a huge role in creating the public narrative of crime and danger. 

https://carolinaforward.org/blog/violence-in-north-carolina/
 

Edited June 28, 2023 by kermit

[CLT2014]

I think the perception of crime is heavily influenced by our size in our TV market and Meck being #1 in population and 3rd in homicide rate for our viewing area. The local news stations are  just going to be heavily covering Charlotte crimes and while the rate is high in Anson and Richmond, the population is so small it is not on the news as frequently.

Suburban ring counties like Union, Cabarrus, Iredell, York, et. where residents are close and often commute to Charlotte heavily influence the narrative as well. They are the ones at the office Uptown saying the commute is worth it for the safety in their counties, schools, size of homes, newness of homes, price per square foot, et. They don't care about rural counties far away from them, but they do care about crime in the place they work and the anchor city of the metro.

Things like last night's fights and arrests at Bearden Park on what should be an enjoyable night for our community to come together doesn't help. It fuels the narrative that staying in the suburbs for Fourth of July in downtown Matthews or Fort Mill or Belmont or Davidson, et... Is better, especially for families. I'm a new parent and I'm finding my comfort level shifting. I want my kid to not grow up in a bubble, but also don't love the gun violence our city is struggling with. I'd like us to be able to celebrate holidays as a community versus run for cover.

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by CLT2014

[nicholas]

For better or worse, I think that the sheer number of murders is more impactful than actual murder rates in the minds of many, due to the relative frequency of each murder.  Look at the population figures of the top 10 on that list. Robeson County has 116k residents. Vance has 42k. Scotland has 34k. Columbus has 50k. Swain has 14k. Anson has 22k. Hyde has 4.5k. Green has 20k. Bladen has 29k. Hoke has 54k. Robeson County is somewhat of an anomaly but its struggles are no doubt fueled by being the first NC county on I-95 which is a notorious drug route, and rampant poverty (Wikipedia says about 28% of the county population lives below the poverty line).  The rest of the counties have pretty small populations, so a couple of murders will drastically alter their numbers when measured per 100k residents.

CMPD reports there were 24 homicides during Q1 of this year (up from 19  in Q1 of '22).  In other words, about 2 murders a week.  Over in Hyde County, if I did my math properly (since I couldn't find actual numbers) I believe there was only 1 homicide all of last year, but its population is so small that it appears much greater at first glance.  Obviously, no one wants to live in a dangerous environment but if they hear of just 1 homicide all year living in the country vs 2 each week living in Charlotte, the country will feel safer even if technically isn't.

Edited July 6, 2023 by nicholas

[KJHburg]

Those counties all rural with the highest murder rates are some of the poorest counties in the state especially Robeson, Anson, Vance etc.

Cabarrus mostly suburban, some rural has one of the lowest murder rates in the state and is the lowest of any NC county in the metro area.    Rutherford very rural county west of Shelby but not very wealthy is near the bottom of the murder rate too.    Union and Lincoln are down there near Cabarrus's ranking too.  But poverty rates seem to be a better indicator too as Orange one of the wealthiest counties in the state if not the wealthiest has the lowest murder rate in the state.  

But look  at the biggest urban counties in the state:

Guilford has the most murders per capita, then Durham then Cumberland( Fayetteville)  then Mecklenburg then Forsyth (W-S)   then way down the list is Wake the most populous county in the state.  Wake is by far the safest big county in the state half the rate of next big urban county Forsyth and a lot less than Mecklenburg.  

[Professor]

15 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

I think the perception of crime is heavily influenced by our size in our TV market and Meck being #1 in population and 3rd in homicide rate for our viewing area. The local news stations are  just going to be heavily covering Charlotte crimes and while the rate is high in Anson and Richmond, the population is so small it is not on the news as frequently.

Suburban ring counties like Union, Cabarrus, Iredell, York, et. where residents are close and often commute to Charlotte heavily influence the narrative as well. They are the ones at the office Uptown saying the commute is worth it for the safety in their counties, schools, size of homes, newness of homes, price per square foot, et. They don't care about rural counties far away from them, but they do care about crime in the place they work and the anchor city of the metro.

Things like last night's fights and arrests at Bearden Park on what should be an enjoyable night for our community to come together doesn't help. It fuels the narrative that staying in the suburbs for Fourth of July in downtown Matthews or Fort Mill or Belmont or Davidson, et... Is better, especially for families. I'm a new parent and I'm finding my comfort level shifting. I want my kid to not grow up in a bubble, but also don't love the gun violence our city is struggling with. I'd like us to be able to celebrate holidays as a community versus run for cover.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Larry Singer
Don't want to start an argument

[kermit]

On 7/6/2023 at 9:20 AM, Larry Singer said:

…Without demographics, there would be no crime. …

This is the most ignorant statement I have ever read. (And I read a bunch of stupid crap)

Edit: Based on Larry’s past posts I interpreted this statement as referring explicitly to race (thus my response). In a post below Larry broadens out his statement to include the economic characteristics of groups, if that was his original intent (it’s unclear based on his editing) then  my response was inappropriate. But, based on Larry’s history on UP, he has not earned the benefit of my doubt so I am leaving my original remark.

Edited July 9, 2023 by kermit

[JRCLT]

25 minutes ago, Larry Singer said:

It would be meaningful if figures shown for the statewide county map were additionally broken down by demographics. Without demographics, there would be no crime. Not showing demographics seems to imply that all people behave equally, and we know that isn't the case. It is impossible to prioritize efforts to end crime without targeting in on the culprits.  Hopefully our future generals won't send us to war without knowing who the enemy is. We do have a crime map of Charlotte available online. It is meaningful for newcomers that want to live in a safe area and go to a better school. 

What should also be noted is that many of these homicides/crimes are more often than not committed by someone known to the victims of the particular crime. Violent Crime is more unlikely to occur between strangers than known individuals. People sometimes get a lens that sees crime as all done by strangers to other strangers. Those do exist of course, but are not the whole story and not the majority of the story either. Also I agree with the statement Kermit made. Regardless of demographics there would be crime. Even if we were carbon copies of each other in every aspect, we are human beings and we have minds of our own. Different circumstances can cause us to act in vastly different ways. To have no crime at all would be delusional unfortunately. Humans will be, Humans.

[Professor]

41 minutes ago, kermit said:

This is the most ignorant statement I have ever read. (And I read a bunch of stupid crap)

Maybe you are special. Why do you read "a bunch of stupid crap?" You can write what you wish and I will do the same.  I challenge you to tell me one thing that was ignorant with my posting.  

 

41 minutes ago, kermit said:

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Larry Singer

[Professor]

42 minutes ago, JRCLT said:

What should also be noted is that many of these homicides/crimes are more often than not committed by someone known to the victims of the particular crime. Violent Crime is more unlikely to occur between strangers than known individuals. People sometimes get a lens that sees crime as all done by strangers to other strangers. Those do exist of course, but are not the whole story and not the majority of the story either. Also I agree with the statement Kermit made. Regardless of demographics there would be crime. Even if we were carbon copies of each other in every aspect, we are human beings and we have minds of our own. Different circumstances can cause us to act in vastly different ways. To have no crime at all would be delusional unfortunately. Humans will be, Humans.

Such a chart has a purpose. Yes, regardless of demographics, there would be crime. Such charts often provide information for which one can make decisions on relocations, opening businesses, etc. In making such decisions, the shown percentage is extremely superficial and meant to be so.  Hermit doesn't understand that demographics can be a huge assent in determining whether crime problems are spread county wide or localized.  A showing of a high percentage crime rate itself doesn't make it possible to determine if the percentage ofcrime is a limiting factor or simply a statistic for which careful planning can make a venture successful.  Demographics help determine vital factors including area education levels for purposes of hiring, school comparisons (statewide and nationally),  high crime areas within an area,  workforce pool, and much more. 

[kermit]

Since this is a discussion based largely on anecdote, I'll add one of my own.

I rode my bike to the the Knights game on Saturday night -- was a great game! While there (or in transit) I did not witness any crime or experience any discomfort (other than ballpark beer prices). 

Without checking the numbers, its safe to say that I put myself at far higher risk riding my bike in mixed traffic than any threats from crime.

This is not meant to dismiss anyone's concerns about uptown crime, as noted above I share some of those same concerns. However, based on the type of evidence used to support the discussion above (anecdote), my pleasant experience data point is just as relevant here as any 'if it bleeds it leads' Observer article.  I made one of many thousands of trips to Uptown that occur without incident so they are never noted.  Mainstream and social media are largely just crime report amplifiers, and that amplification distorts our sense of reality and exaggerates our real risk. While we should all be cautious and work to make crime less common its rarely useful to live in fear.

Yes, crime rates have bumped up lately, uptown feels less safe than in pre-pandemic days, but don't loose sight of the fact that crime rates throughout Charlotte today are significantly lower than they were 5, 10 or 20 years ago.

Edited July 12, 2023 by kermit

[Professor]

On 6/25/2023 at 4:55 PM, kermit said:

Yea, you are probably right. It was crazy of me to think that Murders and shootings might be correlated.

Please share with us how a 12% year-to-date, decline in murder (on pace to be the single largest annual decline in the murder rate ever) is somehow irrelevant. I find your explicit suggestion that murders don't really matter makes your  whaaddaboutism simultaneously inhumane and comical — something I didn’t think was possible.

I find your inability to understand that violent crime is worse than what is shown on a chart displaying numbers of murders.  You seem to be oblivious to the reality that the number of nonfatal shootings far exceeds the number of murders. The FBI and other agencies list "murders" and not non-fatal shootings under the violent crime category. To get a true picture of violence, only an idiot would think that we can sleep better with state numbers going down a slightly and temporarily. Well, wake up genius, looks like this year might prove you an idiot in regard to murder numbers.  

 

 

 

[kermit]

Quote

To get a true picture of violence, only an idiot would think that we can sleep better with state numbers going down a slightly and temporarily.

I am intrigued by your analytical techniques, please share with us how you are able to determine that the declines I cited were temporary — are you able to see the future? And also tell us how being on pace for the largest annual decline in murder ever recorded can be interpreted as a "slight" decline.

If you can’t show your supporting evidence then please label your response as opinion.

Edited July 17, 2023 by kermit

[Professor]

3 hours ago, kermit said:

I am intrigued by your analytical techniques, please share with us how you are able to determine that the declines I cited were temporary — can you see the future? And also how being on track for the  largest annual decline recorded can be interpreted as "slight"

If you can’t show your supporting evidence then this merely your opinion.  Please label it as such.

I guess I am just smarter than you. You think I am wrong because of figures you saw on some chart indicating that crime in N.C. had gone down 12 percent. The chart was almost 4 years old (2000) and secondly,  the murder rate in Charlotte (the state's biggest city) was higher last year than the year before, and this year it looks like we are in for another big year. So, can you tell me about your abilities to see the future using old figures and not mentioning the Charlotte (again, the state's biggest city) violent crime data that is actually "up to date."  Looks like you should go back to Spencer's in the mall and buy an new fortune telling black ball. 

[kermit]

14 hours ago, Larry Singer said:

I guess I am just smarter than you. You think I am wrong because of figures you saw on some chart indicating that crime in N.C. had gone down 12 percent. The chart was almost 4 years old (2000) and secondly,  the murder rate in Charlotte (the state's biggest city) was higher last year than the year before, and this year it looks like we are in for another big year. So, can you tell me about your abilities to see the future using old figures and not mentioning the Charlotte (again, the state's biggest city) violent crime data that is actually "up to date."  Looks like you should go back to Spencer's in the mall and buy an new fortune telling black ball. 

Ummm no. I did not base my statements on "some chart that was 4 years old". My statement was taken from an analysis which used crime data collected through May 2023. The source of these data were linked in my post: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/us-murder-rate-decline-crime-statistics/67429 . From the linked Atlantic story:

Quote

Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022. Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline nationally. But even so, the drop shown in the preliminary data is astonishing.

...

All of that said, the good news is, well, good. Murder is down 13 percent in New York City, and shootings are down 25 percent, relative to last year as of late May. Murder is down more than 20 percent in Los Angeles, Houston, and Philadelphia. And, most significantly, murder is down 30 percent—30 percent!—or more in Jackson, Mississippi; Atlanta, Georgia; Little Rock, Arkansas; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and others.

You certainly might be smarter than me (most people who post here are), but your reading comprehension could use some work. As I said in my original post, the data are from 90 cities, not for Charlotte specifically (the -first- three words of that post were: "Not Charlotte specific...")  so you are straw-maning me with your harping on local data. Please share your Charlotte data with us.

I get that your opinion on this subject is different than mine and its certainly possible I have misinterpreted some data.  I would be thrilled to engage in a discussion about the source of our different perspectives. Unfortunately all you have done so far is provide opinion without any evidence and honestly it sounds a lot like Faux news talking points to me (but I am not a regular viewer so perhaps I am wrong)-- so show me the evidence you are using to support your argument.  It would be great if you could be somewhat more thoughtful than a) calling me an idiot; b) intentionally mischaracterizing my arguments and; c)  falsely accusing me of using dated data. You have done all three of these things over the past 5 hours. 

Despite making no future-looking statements in my post, I'll take your advice and try and find another Magic 8 Ball because they are pretty cool  https://magic-8ball.com/

Edited July 18, 2023 by kermit

[Professor]

17 hours ago, kermit said:

Ummm no. I did not base my statements on "some chart that was 4 years old". My statement was taken from an analysis which used crime data collected through May 2023. The source of these data were linked in my post: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/us-murder-rate-decline-crime-statistics/67429 . From the linked Atlantic story:

You certainly might be smarter than me (most people who post here are), but your reading comprehension could use some work. As I said in my original post, the data are from 90 cities, not for Charlotte specifically (the -first- three words of that post were: "Not Charlotte specific...")  so you are straw-maning me with your harping on local data. Please share your Charlotte data with us.

I get that your opinion on this subject is different than mine and its certainly possible I have misinterpreted some data.  I would be thrilled to engage in a discussion about the source of our different perspectives. Unfortunately all you have done so far is provide opinion without any evidence and honestly it sounds a lot like Faux news talking points to me (but I am not a regular viewer so perhaps I am wrong)-- so show me the evidence you are using to support your argument.  It would be great if you could be somewhat more thoughtful than a) calling me an idiot; b) intentionally mischaracterizing my arguments and; c)  falsely accusing me of using dated data. You have done all three of these things over the past 5 hours. 

Despite making no future-looking statements in my post, I'll take your advice and try and find another Magic 8 Ball because they are pretty cool  https://magic-8ball.com/

 

17 hours ago, kermit said:

Ummm no. I did not base my statements on "some chart that was 4 years old". My statement was taken from an analysis which used crime data collected through May 2023. The source of these data were linked in my post: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/us-murder-rate-decline-crime-statistics/67429 . From the linked Atlantic story:

You certainly might be smarter than me (most people who post here are), but your reading comprehension could use some work. As I said in my original post, the data are from 90 cities, not for Charlotte specifically (the -first- three words of that post were: "Not Charlotte specific...")  so you are straw-maning me with your harping on local data. Please share your Charlotte data with us.

I get that your opinion on this subject is different than mine and its certainly possible I have misinterpreted some data.  I would be thrilled to engage in a discussion about the source of our different perspectives. Unfortunately all you have done so far is provide opinion without any evidence and honestly it sounds a lot like Faux news talking points to me (but I am not a regular viewer so perhaps I am wrong)-- so show me the evidence you are using to support your argument.  It would be great if you could be somewhat more thoughtful than a) calling me an idiot; b) intentionally mischaracterizing my arguments and; c)  falsely accusing me of using dated data. You have done all three of these things over the past 5 hours. 

Despite making no future-looking statements in my post, I'll take your advice and try and find another Magic 8 Ball because they are pretty cool  https://magic-8ball.com/

Your left wing magazine The Atlantic states, verbatim, "even a reor double digit percent decline in murder in 2023 would still mean a couple of thousand more people will be murdered in America this year than in 2019."  Bottom line, I am not interested any longer in arguing with you.  I have common sense. I know where to go and not to go to avoid violent, animal behavior.  My main source of intelligence are my eyes and my well developed perception.  I don't rely on precarious sources from either "left" or "right." You should know that "liars use statistics."

[Professor]

On 7/5/2023 at 8:33 PM, nicholas said:

For better or worse, I think that the sheer number of murders is more impactful than actual murder rates in the minds of many, due to the relative frequency of each murder.  Look at the population figures of the top 10 on that list. Robeson County has 116k residents. Vance has 42k. Scotland has 34k. Columbus has 50k. Swain has 14k. Anson has 22k. Hyde has 4.5k. Green has 20k. Bladen has 29k. Hoke has 54k. Robeson County is somewhat of an anomaly but its struggles are no doubt fueled by being the first NC county on I-95 which is a notorious drug route, and rampant poverty (Wikipedia says about 28% of the county population lives below the poverty line).  The rest of the counties have pretty small populations, so a couple of murders will drastically alter their numbers when measured per 100k residents.

CMPD reports there were 24 homicides during Q1 of this year (up from 19  in Q1 of '22).  In other words, about 2 murders a week.  Over in Hyde County, if I did my math properly (since I couldn't find actual numbers) I believe there was only 1 homicide all of last year, but its population is so small that it appears much greater at first glance.  Obviously, no one wants to live in a dangerous environment but if they hear of just 1 homicide all year living in the country vs 2 each week living in Charlotte, the country will feel safer even if technically isn't.

Thanks, words are better than a stupid graph. 

[kermit]

9 hours ago, Larry Singer said:

...You should know that "liars use statistics."

For your sake I sincerely hope you have a different perspective on statistics when investing your retirement funds, or when visiting the doctor, or when taking pharmaceuticals, or when purchasing insurance or when checking the weather forecast, or when performing maintenance on your car, or when choosing a house to buy, or when ....

Edited July 19, 2023 by kermit

[LKN704]

This isn’t a post that offers suggestions, but rather illustrates (from my perspective) that there is no “easy answer” on this issue. 

I am about as far left as you can possibly go on the political spectrum. I’m for criminal justice reform. I’m against barbaric mandatory sentencing and “three-strikes laws” for non-violent offenders. I'm for a dramatic overhaul of our prison system that ultimately strives for rehabilitation (rather than simply punitive discipline) whenever possible and treats all prisoners with dignity and humanity. I'm anti-capital punishment. I'm against for-profit/private prisons. I'm against vigilante-like justices who are unethical and bring their personal/financial gains and bias into the courtroom. 

The attack on a congresswoman at her DC apartment building earlier this year really made me contemplate violent crime. The offender had numerous priors (something like 13) and was clearly mentally unwell. IIRC, MPD said that the suspect was screaming from the squad car that there were spiders crawling over his body after he was arrested (or something like that). 

That said, after much thought on the issue, I’ve come to the sad and depressing truth that not everyone can be rehabilitated. We do not live in a utopian society where every person on this planet can be fine-tuned and repaired to become a useful member of society. Some people are not capable of saving and frankly, it's not worth society's time, money, and energy to think of solutions to do so when it's obvious that the results will be the same. It's morbid and depressing but it's the reality of life.

In a perfect society where the government was good and pure and public spending wasn’t an issue, I would argue that we need to bring back institutionalized mental health centers, just more in a holistic, community setting and without the raping/abuse and better oversight. The kind of people involved in the case of the congresswoman cannot just “promise to get better” (and they might not even be able to, frankly, given their condition) and then just be left to their own devices on the street. We need to hold them and provide mandatory treatment. 

Of course, public spending (especially on issues such as this) is soooo “European” and would never fly here. I would also be worried that institutionalization would easily be politicized, and folks would just start throwing political opponents or those they personally saw unfit for society as they did in the 20th century (the movie Changeling comes to mind).

Edited July 18, 2023 by LKN704

[Professor]

I'm more to the right than you, but I think you are a rational person and I certainly respect your views and opinions and even agree in some cases. Surely this divided country can come more together and stop the right-left/black-white  bullcrape.

 

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Larry Singer

[Professor]

22 hours ago, kermit said:

For your sake I sincerely hope you have a different perspective on statistics when investing your retirement funds, or when visiting the doctor, or when taking pharmaceuticals, or when purchasing insurance or when checking the weather forecast, or when performing maintenance on your car, or when choosing a house to buy, or when ....

Holy crap! I said that "liars use statistics." I didn't say non-liars often use statistics too. Maybe I should have? 

[kermit]

Just back from riding my bike to a rainy Knights game. No hints of criminal incidents crossed my path. Add another observation into the rarely reported "uptown is mostly fine" column. This is not meant to say there are no issues, but its really not the case that most visits to uptown have negative outcomes.

Edited September 8, 2023 by kermit

[KJHburg]

this is good news CMPD busted up a major car theft ring that was violent.

https://www.wfae.org/crime-justice/2023-09-07/charlotte-mecklenburg-police-recover-millions-of-dollars-worth-of-stolen-luxury-cars?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[Professor]

2 hours ago, KJHburg said:

this is good news CMPD busted up a major car theft ring that was violent.

https://www.wfae.org/crime-justice/2023-09-07/charlotte-mecklenburg-police-recover-millions-of-dollars-worth-of-stolen-luxury-cars?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

It's the "slap on the hand and release" that bothers many of us.