Population Growth

[MJLO]

24 minutes ago, arcturus said:

Has anyone considered the simple fact that if there's no housing to satisfy the immigration influx they go elsewhere? 

That is quite literally what I am saying haha.  

They’ve been going elsewhere since at least 2018.  I’m not somewhere where I can pull the numbers right now, but I’ll put a chart together that shows the trend.  Sometime around 2018 growth numbers in Kent county dropped by half.  Growth also slowed in Ottawa county.   
 

I guess where we differ is that I don’t think this trend is organic.  I do think there’s an under current of NIMBYism that’s having an outsized impact on suppressing much needed new housing, and exacerbating the housing crunch. Which in turn is inorganically slowing regional population growth. 

[GRJohn]

I've always wondered what makes some areas NIMBY and other YIMBY.  Is there any correlations between NIMBYISM and other factors?  Why are northern townships so against development and the southern townships less against (at least how it seems to me).  I wish we would build as many housing units (of all types) as we can but others would cheer no growth.  I'm sure there have been studies on this but I have yet to seen any of them.

[MJLO]

Ok I finally got around to getting my county estimates analysis done for the 2023 number.  Northern Michigan and the UP continue to benefit from the work from home trend, as well as people getting away from cities in general.   The I-75 corridor continues to lose people, with the northern/thumb region having the worst attrition.   The Detroit area continues to stagnate/struggle.  What's been different since about 2020 is that Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) has been declining.  Washtenaw has always been a bright spot for growth so this is a new trend.  I am wondering if college students are being counted differently, or if there's been a shift to more online learning.  Pretty much all counties that are dominated by a college took population hits in the 2020 census so something has changed.   The Grand Rapids area continues to be the growth leader in the state.  Growth numbers for GR have softened a bit from where they were at in the mid 10's.  Periphery counties continue to grow faster than Kent County, with the lone exception being Ionia county.   For some reason Ionia County ticks along slower than the rest of the W. Mich region.   That could have something to do with the urbanized portions of GR being slanted south and west, and away from the Ionia border.    Though that doesn't explain more rural Montcalm County surpassing it in both growth and population.    Ottawa leads the state in growth,  though growth in Kent County has bounced back from it's very stagnant  post Covid estimates.   This could just be an adjustment from previous estimates being too low, it's hard to say.

 

Per the discussion about if the housing crunch is affecting growth in Kent County, below are side by side charts showing year by year growth estimate for Kent and Ottawa Counties.  You can see growth in both take an immediate downshift in 2018. (Please note that I removed the outlier estimates from 2020 which show a huge bump in all area counties.  This is most likely  a correction.)  The obvious intangible is covid, and the social unrest of 2020, which very likely did have an outsized impact on Kent.   What hasn't changed is the job growth in region, specifically in more educated STEM roles.   This combined with the growth and movements of the large corporations in the area signal that the urbanized portions of GR should be growing around 1% a year.    I strongly believe there's an immediate impact in this growth due to home builders not being able to build large scale developments in many places.  Specifically the city of Walker, and Alpine township make it very difficult to build anything, and they contain some of the most opportune spots to do so.  This means any large scale projects are contained to the city, or the suburbs to the south and west which are largely built out.   This makes growth friendly Ottawa the most cost effective area to build. While Ottawa has also taken a dip in growth numbers, it is to a lesser degree than Kent. 

 

[MJLO]

On 3/21/2024 at 2:31 PM, GRJohn said:

I've always wondered what makes some areas NIMBY and other YIMBY.  Is there any correlations between NIMBYISM and other factors?  Why are northern townships so against development and the southern townships less against (at least how it seems to me).  I wish we would build as many housing units (of all types) as we can but others would cheer no growth.  I'm sure there have been studies on this but I have yet to seen any of them.

The southern townships have always been more developed.  The urban area naturally grew south of the river early on.   The opening of M6 in 2004 set off a huge growth spurt in the second ring of townships.   With that growth the south side of the metro is more transplant heavy.  Transplants have less history, less emotional connection to the area.  They are therefore less likely to be nostalgic, or care about preserving the character of a place (especially in outer ring townships that have little to no character to begin with).  

Alpine Township, and Walker specifically were more growth friendly 35 years ago.  They were bitten by the rise of poorly planned Alpine Avenue, along with the monstrosity that is York Creek Apartments.  When Land and Co. switched the York Creek business model to a mix of market rate and section 8, Alpine township specifically turned vehemently anti-growth.  The spike in crime resulted in huge bills from Kent Co. Sherriff, and long time residents took a "never again" policy.  I think that has a lot to do with why some of these nice larger scale developments keep getting rejected.    

I do think something needs to be done to contain it a bit.  What's happening in Alpine is really not that dissimilar to the BANANAs mindset that controlled the west side until about 10 years ago.  

[joeDowntown]

Thanks (as always) for this! I wonder if a catalyst for eastern expansion will be the "Covenant Business Park" off the Lowell exit. This includes extending water and sewer across the river. I think you'll start to see a lot of development in this area once the expansion occurs. Lowell is already a nice town with great schools and an abundance of land. And this plot of land seems ideal for rapid expansion once complete:

https://www.rightplace.org/news/state-awards-17-5-million-grant-to-prepare-lowell-townships-covenant-business-park-for-development#:~:text=Today%2C The Right Place%2C Inc,Park in Lowell Township for

This could increase expansion into Ionia County. There is a lot of affordable housing stock in Ionia county, but it's a bit of a drive for commuters. 

Joe

[cstonesparty]

4 hours ago, joeDowntown said:

it's a bit of a drive for commuters. 

Joe

I think M-6 as a commuter tool makes outlying areas near 8th Ave in the SW region continue to be preferred direction for growth vs longer drives. 

[joeDowntown]

4 hours ago, cstonesparty said:

I think M-6 as a commuter tool makes outlying areas near 8th Ave in the SW region continue to be preferred direction for growth vs longer drives. 

I agree for the most part. However, I would bet the straight shot from Lowell to Detroit will be pretty enticing for a lot of companies for either distribution or manufacturing. I could see a lot of additional job creation once the Lowell site starts to be developed. 

Joe

[GR8scott]

Wasnt there supposed to be another exit added between M6 and Lowell at some point?