Charlotte-Douglas Airport (CLT) Expansion

[15895]

I am no Miami fan but I am suprised at the timing of the route cut. I thought it would be October 2015. Having said that given, US airways suspension of Service from Phl- BCN and PHL to FCO for 23 and 27 days is an ominous sign for CLT- Europe flights I now believe most of the CLT seasonal flights wont be back. I see AA's Clt-Europe flights looking like this: LHR, FRA and maybe MAD year round and maybe CDG seasonal. I know I will get beaten up over this but I am now convinced that the increased costs of the new AA will render much of the international flying at CLT obsolete and some of the PHL routes as well.

I agree except on Philly. I bet Philly has a bright bright future as an international hub.

Edit: LOL at the can-can comment!!! Seriously though, some people (I'm thinking with SouthWest in their username on Anet) didn't do us any favors by predicting Asian flights, middle east flights, and Oslo... Some CLT people probably egged on the MIA folks and vice versa.

Edited August 1, 2014 by AirNostrumMAD

[LKN704]

All routes from PHL that are being suspended are only suspended for 30 days each, which leads me to believe the suspensions are because of the A330 repaint schedule and Main Cabin Extra retrofit project.

[Lloyds5]

I wouldn't bet on CLT- MUC long term, I'm not buying that Lufthansa is committed, My bet is service will be gone within a year- MUC and Fra cannot coexist from CLT. Also, AA is sitting on  4  slot pairs to GRU, look for more potential service to GRU from ORD and potentially PHL. Both AA and US Airways applied for these routes but they were declined by the DOT. If  these routes happen expect them from October 2015 once open skies is fully initiated between the US and Brazil. As I said before CLT is going to be the odd man out as far as international service is concerned.

[CltFlyer]

I wouldn't bet on CLT- MUC long term, I'm not buying that Lufthansa is committed, My bet is service will be gone within a year- MUC and Fra cannot coexist from CLT. Also, AA is sitting on  4  slot pairs to GRU, look for more potential service to GRU from ORD and potentially PHL. Both AA and US Airways applied for these routes but they were declined by the DOT. If  these routes happen expect them from October 2015 once open skies is fully initiated between the US and Brazil. As I said before CLT is going to be the odd man out as far as international service is concerned.

You do realize that the LH flight is supported by the very large amount of German companies in the CLT metro, and the largest BMW plant in the world is about an hour away from CLT.  Hence the need for a large amount of business class seats.   This is a very niche route for LH, in fact CLT is the only North American destination for Lufthansa served only from MUC.  I don't know what more confirmation you want if coming out and saying they are committed isn't good enough.

[Lloyds5]

I realize the BMW contracts but realistically what are they going to say? were not committed, I think they want to make the route work long term, I just don't think CLT can support both MUC and FRA...  

[Miesian Corners]

^Then why not leave tomorrow?  If it doesn't make financial sense to stay, I'm fairly certain they'd be out of here.   

[Lloyds5]

^Then why not leave tomorrow?  If it doesn't make financial sense to stay, I'm fairly certain they'd be out of here.   

Because they will try to support the corporate contracts in place until all of the residual traffic left over from the Star Alliance disipates, once that happens the route will become unproftable- remember the aircraft they fly seats 250 or so passengers passengers so without US airways feed how many people do you think  are boarding  locally in CLT? Per US Dot statistics there are 86 Passenders per day that travel from CLT to FRA and fewer then 35 to MUC(and not all of these passengers are taking the same airlines, so some connect via delta, United,etc.). Yes I know lufthansa has an interline agreement with US/AA but US airways will not provide favorable rates for the connecting flights- why should they as they Fly PHL to MUC( so they want to feed themselves) or CLT to FRA same scenario. Again both FRA/MUC wont coexist at Clt Long term. The other possibility is CLT becomes a Tag to another city i.e MUC-BOS- CLT all same plane service(but Tags onto international flights that you cant sell seats on the Tag portion such as BOS- CLT add expense without added revenue so this may not work) - Thats my take on it anyway. Look  for more announcments in the fall about discontinued European flights for summer 2015 as US/AA integrate the route networks.

[ssh214]

Because they will try to support the corporate contracts in place until all of the residual traffic left over from the Star Alliance disipates, once that happens the route will become unproftable- remember the aircraft they fly seats 250 or so passengers passengers so without US airways feed how many people do you think  are boarding  locally in CLT? Per US Dot statistics there are 86 Passenders per day that travel from CLT to FRA and fewer then 35 to MUC(and not all of these passengers are taking the same airlines, so some connect via delta, United,etc.). Yes I know lufthansa has an interline agreement with US/AA but US airways will not provide favorable rates for the connecting flights- why should they as they Fly PHL to MUC( so they want to feed themselves) or CLT to FRA same scenario. Again both FRA/MUC wont coexist at Clt Long term. The other possibility is CLT becomes a Tag to another city i.e MUC-BOS- CLT all same plane service(but Tags onto international flights that you cant sell seats on the Tag portion such as BOS- CLT add expense without added revenue so this may not work) - Thats my take on it anyway. Look  for more announcments in the fall about discontinued European flights for summer 2015 as US/AA integrate the route networks.

 

Before yesterday I would have tried to counter your argument but after yesterday's announcement of discontinuing Sao Paulo I'm not too optimistic about CLT's international service; I for sure thought Sao Paulo was staying and am shocked AA is discontinuing it...

[Miesian Corners]

AA and LH (Lufthansa German Airlines) have a marketing agreement that allows the two to sell seats on the city pair.  The sky is not falling (although it is raining).  

[Lloyds5]

AA and LH (Lufthansa German Airlines) have a marketing agreement that allows the two to sell seats on the city pair.  The sky is not falling (although it is raining).  

They do not have a marketing agreement just for the CLT-MUC they have an interline agreement between the airlines  where you can fly say Clt to FRA on US and then onto another city with Lufthansa. Or from Fra to Phl on Lufthansa and then connect onto  another USairways flight and the bags are transfered or from FRA to DFW, ORD MIA and then onto US/AA. As I said before US/AA will feed their own MUC flight or feed one of the joint venture partners I.e CLT- LHR on US and then BA to MUC etc. - they are not going to give that revenue away to Lufthansa just to support the MUC flight from Charlotte. Only time will tell but something is going to give in the CLT Germany Market and I dont think its going to be US/AA to Drop frankfurt, it will be Lufthansa who cant support their service. 

[Lloyds5]

Before yesterday I would have tried to counter your argument but after yesterday's announcement of discontinuing Sao Paulo I'm not too optimistic about CLT's international service; I for sure thought Sao Paulo was staying and am shocked AA is discontinuing it...

I said weeks ago that GRU would be gone, I just thought they would wait until full implementation of Open Skies with Brazil in October 2015. I dont know why its hard to understand that since we Charlotte lack local traffic and is mostly connections and with the increased labor costs of the new AA that most of the Seasonal European flying will be rendered obsolete. Back to Brazil, CLT Brazil never made any sense but the Old US Airways wanted into the Brazil market and could nt make it work at their international gateway in Philadelphia  due to poor geographical positoning so they chose CLT to run cheap connections through here. Now with DFW and MIA, CLT-Brazil was rendered obsolete. Look for CLT- MEX to go away as that traffic can be routed over multiple frequences from DFW or MIA to MEX. etc etc.

I wish it were different but when the airport decided  not to build the international terminal that spoke volumes to me

[clt29301]

It is interesting to read the posts in this thread concerning international air service from CLT. It is clear that some think service will be contained to a handful of cities and nothing more, almost cheering the loss of air service. Honestly, I have not seen a lot of factual information which would suggest this to be the direction of airlines or good business long term. Brazil does not surprise me and I would expect to see AA run S American flights from Miami. But, Europe and Mexico.....not sure I buy it. For one, there is a lot of international business within the 16m Carolina residents. But, more importantly, as I read more about the 787, a common theme I see is that it allows airlines to service smaller metros (not small metros) but smaller ones like British Airways is doing with London-Austin or Air Canada is doing with their new 787 planes. American has a number of 787s on order and may take some A350 planes. CLT is pushing ahead with the 4th parallel runway which will be long enough to serve Asian flights. Now, if you can take the new terminal being mostly domestic as a sign of declining international flights, you could just as easily see the new runway as a sign of long term growth in international service. There is a lot of international air service in metro's which are materially the same size as Charlotte absent the growth rates. From a business perspective, there is a disconnection is saying Charlotte is destined to lose service while other metros won't be affected. One question I have is whether Philadelphia makes sense as a hub long term. It is close to NYC and SWA has made strong inroads into the market, it is a question worth asking.

Lufthansa has said numerous times that they are here to stay with a very profitable flight. One thing about German business, they generally don't talk for the fun of it. If they say it is staying, I believe them.....it is was a US airline, that's another story.

[Lloyds5]

As I have said in numerous other posts, all Hubs are going to be effected internationally but CLT will be more so because of the very low O&D traffic. Normally PHL would not make sense with JFK 80 miles away but JFK is slot controlled so AA cant feed flights so JFK will be focused on O&D. For example, JFK supports 10 flights to LHR every day, 2x to CDG, 2x to GRU etc. with mostly local traffic no other city could support that.  So it looks like PHL will be the main European connecting point for the new AA by process of elimination . Further more SWA has pulled back in PHL from a peak of 75 flights to like 30 flights  per day so I don't think SWA is not much of a competitive problem. As for Lufthansa, I think they really want the MUC-CLT route to work to support corporate contracts but how are they going to fill the back of the cabin? They will be here until the flight turns unprofitable and I predict that will be within a year- after the residual Star feed disappears.

Looks like CLT-LIS, Man, BCN and BRU wont be back in 2015, Check the schedules and you will find none of them are loaded for 2015. So people say they were new routes and are still being evaluated but so was PHL-EDI in 2015 and that route has been loaded into the 2015 schedule. CLT- ASIA forget it, longer runway for Asia flights but no terminal to process passengers properly- that's a big red flag for me.  I think both PHL and Miami wont get Asia service and they are much larger local markets than CLT. CLT will continue to be a major part of the AA but not internationally. Just trying to level set everything that's happening here.

[CltFlyer]

Take this for what its worth, but GRU is still bookable on usairways.com as far as the system shows.   Maybe they meant to say CLT-GIG in the press release, because if GRU was ending on October first, wouldn't they have zeroed it out in the booking system with the weekly update yesterday?

 

Not saying CLT-GRU isn't ending on October first, but interesting that it is still bookable in the schedule despite announcing it is axed.

Edited August 3, 2014 by CltFlyer

[ssh214]

Take this for what its worth, but GRU is still bookable on usairways.com as far as the system shows.   Maybe they meant to say CLT-GIG in the press release, because if GRU was ending on October first, wouldn't they have zeroed it out in the booking system with the weekly update yesterday?

 

Not saying CLT-GRU isn't ending on October first, but interesting that it is still bookable in the schedule despite announcing it is axed.

I wish that was the case but I think they would have caught it by now and made the correction...

[Lloyds5]

Yes it is strange that they Zeroed out PHL-FCO from 5 Feb until 5 March and BCN from 5 March until 28 March but GRU is still loaded maybe they made a mistake in the announcement? One would think that since we are closer to 10/1 than to February they would have Zeroed out the GRU flights first.

[clt29301]

I think using only the O&D numbers as support for arguing that Charlotte will be stripped to a domestic hub is way too simplistic.  For one, Atlanta's O&D is not as high as much smaller cities like Las Vegas, they have a lot of international flights so there is more to it than that.  However, you need to understand the market and growth to get a feel for what may happen.  Charlotte is growing rapidly, it is above average in wealth, it has a lot of international companies within 100 miles and the list can go on, 7m residents within 100 miles, 16m residents in the Carolinas, fortune 500 company HQs, etc.....  Does that mean we will be a large international gateway, not in the near future.  But, based on the international business in the Carolinas, I would expect to see non stops to London, Frankfurt, Munich (for BMW, Siemens, Bosch etc.), Paris (even Cincinnati has non stop to Paris), and possibly Rome in the next few years.  After 2020, who knows, the 4th parallel runway will be in and if cities like Denver & Minneapolis can support Asian flights, Charlotte is not out of the question. 

 

As for SWA in Philadelphia, if you look, they have about 25-30 arrivals scheduled in a short block on a Sunday night, not sure I see them at 25 daily flights from Philly. 

 

When I read your posts, the only thing I see is you cheerfully reading the headlines to us about international flights being cancelled in Charlotte.  Not sure if that is your intent but if you said why other than using one metric and business logic, I think your story may be better received. 

[Miesian Corners]

Looks like for 2015, US/AA will still add an additional flight to Frankfurt (FRA) and will reintroduce service to Rome, Madrid, Paris, and Dublin.  I'm still told Madrid will (eventually) go year-round, but aircraft availability is the issue at the current time, as all US 767s will be retired by September 2015 (they will park 1 in February, 1 in April, and the remainder in September of the year).  

 

There are no widebody deliveries scheduled for legacy US Airways from this point forward--only retirements. While the A-350 is on order for the airline, it will be already be absorbed into American by the time Airbus is scheduled to deliver the first of 22 beginning in 2017. 

[clt29301]

MC....is AA getting the 787 as well as the A350?  If so, how will those planes be incorporated into the schedule? Will Paris go year round?

[Lloyds5]

Not cheerfully reading the headlines at all just stating that what I  thought would happen actually happened. And about SWA like I said 25 flight operations at Philly want make a difference to US/AA. As far is Las Vegas is concerned there is a high level of leisure travel versus business travel- typically low yielding. And yes Atlanta does have lots of international flights and its O&D is 4x that of Charlotte, so you cant compare CLT Vs. Atlanta in that area. Also, don't read too much into the summer 2015 international schedules its a provisional schedule look atpulling CLT- GRU out of the schedule in early August for October onward. Look for European flying to be finalized by October

[Lloyds5]

Sorry had technical issues with the above post, meant to say CLT- GRU is being pulled in August for flights Oct 1 and forward so the international flying schedule is far from firm this far out. How can  Minneapolis and Denver support Asia flying- its simple its called geography- they both pull traffic from both  the east coast and mid west and mountain states to their hubs and across the pacific. realistically you are not going to connect the Midwest over CLT to Asia too much back tracking. In addition, both Delta an United have much stronger name recognition in Asia than does American. Doug Parker recently said Asia flying from DFW and ORD is not currently profitable but we believe its an investment in the future. So if AA cant make money from two better positioned hubs with much stronger O&D- do you really think in 5 years CLT will have Asia- stop believing the Chamber of Commerce hype.

[clt29301]

First Loyd, I am not believing chamber hype, I am using business logic, something you have not done. Second , you misread my list about Philly, you said they are down to 25 - 30 flights per day, that is completely wrong. Third, Atlanta O&D, you misread the post, Atlanta has a low O&D percentage wise ...not 4x CLT. You have posted forever about CLT O&D as being the main reason why international will not work, well, that is one metric in a sea of many that AA will review when planning routes so, you are being way too simplistic, almost like buying a stock and only looking at stock price. Asia, Atlanta has Asian flights so the backtracking theory is not relevant.

As I said, Charlotte is a good hub for AA and will have more international service than the small number you suggest. If you are going to hijack a thread, please do more than read headlines to us.

[Lloyds5]

You are wrong SWA does not have more than 30 flights a day from Philly, and Atlanta's O&D is 4x CLT's- both facts check them. And what are you talking about hijacking a thread? This is an open forum and we all have the right to respectfully express our opinions. Furthermore, CLT is not a good hub for AA its a great hub for AA it will just have fewer international flights in the future.  

[Miesian Corners]

MC....is AA getting the 787 as well as the A350?  If so, how will those planes be incorporated into the schedule? Will Paris go year round?

AA takes delivery of its first 787 next month.  I believe they're supposed to fly Asia from DFW and LAX.  For the first six months or so, however, they will fly domestic while crews learn and kinks are worked out.  I have no idea if Paris will go year round.  I think probably not, although the route does have the shortest hiatus of all CLT's seasonal flying.  

 

Switching gears, I saw some flooring samples being tested last week on C Concourse.  Thank God that terrible carpeting at CLT will (hopefully) be replaced with solid surface flooring in 2015!  Also, currently new baggage to ticketing escalators, as well as new moving sidewalks on A Concourse are being installed.  

[Lloyds5]

Other than Mad, CDG is the other seasonal route most likely to go year round- but US did try to run it year round in 2011- 2012 and it was made seasonal again the following year.