KJW

"The Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission will apply for a federal grant to help cash-strapped Missouri finish its part of Interstate 49 around Bella Vista." (Let's see whether this works) : https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=3324.msg2261941#msg2261941

The 2018 Nielsen DMA rankings have been released. NWA/Fort Smith continues to go up the list, now at #98, up 1 ranking from last year. Little Rock-Pine Bluff is #58. There was a time when the difference between the two was about 100 places if not much more. https://www.tvb.org/Portals/0/media/file/DMA/2017_2018_DMA_Ranks.pdf

Architect, the Tulsa MSA is indeed larger, but Little Rock is more like OKC in that it covers most of the state, moreso than the latter, which isn't border-to-border east-to-west the way LR (which extends from Helena to Mena) is...partially (as you point out) because Tulsa blocks it in the east as far south as McAlester.

The ethnic market rankings will come out later. Fort Smith/Fayetteville has been a top 75 market in America for both Asian and Hispanic viewers in the last rankings, so we'll see if there has been any movement. One last thing: if you add the current FSM/Fayettville/Springdale/Rogers and Little Rock markets together, you get 852,650 TV households. If they were a conjoined market, they would rank #37 in America at this point in time, right behind: 36. Cincinnati 35. Milwaukee 34. Salt Lake City 33. Kansas City There is starting to be some media power in the Natural State.

The new Nielsen rankings were just released today. For the first time ever, the Fort Smith-Fayetteville TV market is ranked in double digits, in the top markets in America, at #99. (As a measuring standard, the market was around 200 or higher 30 years ago, before Benton and a few other counties were added): http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/docs/solutions/measurement/television/2016-2017-nielsen-local-dma-ranks.pdf There may be some other interesting news, too in this when the ethnic rankings are released later. BTW, there was some good media news for Fort Smith today. Natural State Media, located in the city, is buying the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal. It will be interesting to see how the combined media grow in the future, but this is an HQ move of sorts back to the Southwest. http://talkbusiness.net/2016/09/talk-business-politics-to-acquire-northwest-arkansas-business-journal/

Comreguy, Months ago we'd speculated on the possibility of Menard's coming some day to NWA. They're about to open a Menard's east of U.S. 65 in southern Hollister, MO, barely 10 miles above the Arkansas line. They may never go any farther in this direction, but this will be their farthest south location yet (surpassing the Poplar Bluff, MO store which previously held that honor). Jane, MO might have been a good location for them once right above BV; we'll see... http://bransontrilakesnews.com/news/article_a89d2c18-2441-11e6-868d-7b725f108822.html

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was quoted yesterday as saying NWA will have over 1,000,000 people within 15 years at projected growth rates. Here's some rough math. Forgive me as I don't have links for the numbers, but they're out there: Date NWA officially "hit" the 500,000 mark: April 30th, 2014. Average net per day gain of people moving into NWA since then: 31 per day Using above numbers, the current population of NWA today: 525,978* (*500,000 + (838 (number of days since April 30th, 2014 x31, =) 25,978 Now, how would you add 500,000 people over the next 15 years? 15 (years) x 365 (days per year) = 5,475. 500,000 divided by 5,475=91.32 That means that he (and whomever is advising him) is projecting NWA (not counting metro Fort Smith) will grow over the next 15 years by an average of 91 people per day. If those estimates hold true, hold onto your hats, friends, and be prepared for anything, eventually.

From this article published yesterday, about work on I-49 in NWA. Hello, all...visitor from the NWA forum here. Just did some quick number-crunching and found this interesting, using numbers from the above piece, plus latest census bureau estimates for White County. Central Arkansas (Pulaski, Saline, Faulkner, Lonoke, Perry, Grant Counties, I'm pretty sure) population for 2014: 729,135 Pine Bluff (3 county metro, again, I'm sure) population for 2014: 94,716 Hot Springs/Garland County population for 2014: 97,322 White County population for 2015: 79,161 I know its mixing 2014 with 2015, but the article says the CA region is growing by about 2,600 people annually, so there may be more. But if you add up the four numbers above, the total is 1,000,334. Arkansas is going to have 2 million-person metro areas some day. The changes such dual events bring are going to be interesting to watch. (I know that Hot Springs is the metro area that's usually not linked in with the other three. But HS suburb Hot Springs Village is in Saline County and there have to be a lot of Garland Countians who commute to the LR metro area to work. Plus, all four are in the same media market. (By contrast, the Missouri county which is part of NWA is in a MO/KS TV market which is very unusual.) I know this...we moved from LR to near Gainesville, GA in 1991, and moved back to Arkansas (Bentonville) in 2002. In the late 80s when we first moved to LR, a DJ at then AM station KOKY used to call Little Rock as "the itty bitty city they call 'the tiny rock'." Whenever I drive through this place now, it feels much more "million-person" than "itty bitty" or "tiny"...)

"Wow". Just "wow". (Right now, that's a net of 11,300+ new people per year. And this region's not finished expanding yet (see: an ever-more-completed-I-49): POPULATION GROWTH FEEDING NEED FOR ROAD WORKFor several years the four-lane I-49 through Benton and Washington counties has not been enough to handle the rise in traffic volume produced by a fast-growing metro population.U.S. Census estimate updates released March 24 show that the Northwest Arkansas metro area accounted for most of the state’s population growth in the past five years, and only 35 of the nation’s 381 metro areas posted a higher population gain in the past five years than Northwest Arkansas.The Northwest Arkansas metro – home to corporate giants Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Tyson Foods, and J.B. Hunt Transport, as well as the University of Arkansas – had population growth of 50,532 between April 2010 and July 1, 2015, according to updated Census data. During the past year (July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015), the region’s population grew by 11,495.“The latest Census estimates show Northwest Arkansas grew by more than 31 people per day from July 2014 to July 2015. That’s a solid increase because our average day between the April 2010 Census and the July 2014 estimate brought us about 25 new people,” Rob Smith, communications and policy director with the Northwest Arkansas Council, said following the March update.http://talkbusiness.net/2016/07/almost-nine-lanes-of-i-49-through-bentonville-and-rogers-set-for-widening-construction/

"Me and my arrow..."

This. Fort Smith will see amazing things happen if and when I-49 is finished. So, too, NWA (with the "finished" including a finished Bella Vista Bypass). But...the operative word is "if". (And given what Texas and Louisiana are doing and all states north of Bella Vista have done, it's nothing short of abject foolishness not to dream of a completed I-49.)

Mith, I just posted on the Rogers thread about longtime (and soon to be "ex-") Fort Smith real estate and development company ERC moving from that city to Rogers, building a substantial office park for its new headquarters in the latter city. I'm not sure anyone here (but if there is such a story THIS is the forum we'd get answers) can point to anywhere in America where a long-time second-largest-city-in-the-state has been totally eclipsed by a boomtown. Las Vegas had no competition at all in the state of Nevada, with Reno being a totally different market far away. Perhaps Orlando might qualify, but I'm not sure Daytona Beach and Melbourne were any more than parallel rather than dominant cities in its own media/corporate market, and the "big O" has been established since the early 60s when the infrastructure there underwent major change (finished Bella Vista Bypass, anyone?) that convinced Walt Disney to locate his "attraction" there from among several other potential choices...with Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Tampa/St. Petersburg and Jacksonville already in the state I doubt Orlando was ever Florida's "second city" in earlier days. I honestly don't think the United States of America has seen anything like the Fort Smith - NWA collection of events, ever.

This is completely amazing. The corporate "flip" from Fort Smith to NWA continues. ERC has been a Fort Smith mainstay for decades. Again, in a different era, there would have been case studies and books written about all this.

Wow. If this happens, it would mean the local television market will have fully "flipped" upside-down in television terms (given Channel 40's and the KPOM-to-KNWA moves of years back), with the center of gravity moving from Fort Smith down south to NWA up north. Friends, I'm telling you...that has happened very rarely, if ever, in American media. In another time, they'd be writing case studies and perhaps textbooks about this. Perhaps someone is doing so anyway:

Two Fridays ago, I was surprised to see that in Conway, the ADG had a headline of the apparently "New England/northeast-style" (my term, not theirs) prep school the Walton family is going to build in Bentonville, and that they've already hired a headmaster of the school who currently is a dean (for curriculum) at Princeton. I say this because it's noteworthy that Bentonville High, as of this past Friday, became the first ever multi-time and back-to-back winner of the MaxPreps Cup for the best high school athletic program in the nation. They were competing against around 14,000 other American high schools for the honor. This year, "Bennie" won 10 state high school championships, more than any other program in the United States for the 2014-15 school year. Last year, BHS won 9 state championships. My mother, a retired public school teacher in Missouri, bristled when I told her of the Walton school announcement, and I wondered how it would be taken elsewhere in NWA. Nonetheless, there are people from the Northeast and all over the world moving in who, apparently, want for their kids the type of education this future prep school will provide. I won't fault a parent for trying to choose what they thing is right for their kids. I will say a gentle admonishment, though. Dream big. But be careful what you wish for...note that a bunch of those same type prep schools followed after Bentonville High School in this and last year's 2013-14 MaxPreps Cup title. And be thankful for what you've had, and not just in athletics (for example, BHS has finished at the top or near in several national band/choral/fine arts competitions, especially the Bentonville High Chamber Choir). The BHS superintendent said last year (when no less than four BHS Class of 2010 grads matriculated from West Point) that he was confident no other American high school had sent as many kids to the service academies this decade as Bentonville High had. Again, dream big, Walton family and friends, but be grateful for what you've had here. http://www.maxpreps.com/news/4DTaidjmGkSJy59mMN8bSg/final-2014-15-maxpreps-cup-standings.htm

"My orders say I'm not supposed to know where I'm taking this boat, so I don't! But one look at you, and I know it's gonna be hot!" - Chief Quartermaster Phillips in "Apocalypse now" One look at who's buying this school house-looking old hotel and I know it's going to be "hot" some day...

I wonder how they will use that?

I don't know where to put this here, but...looks like Dave & Buster's, discussed before on this forum, may be in (southwest!, by the new Bass Pro Shops and Gateway Towne Plaza) Little Rock as early as 6 months from now. Since Rogers would have been or would be a great location for one, I'll post the story here: http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/105754/dave-busters-grows-closer-to-little-rock-landing

Thank you, comreguy. I knew they would be a different story than HyVee given their business. One things's for sure, IMO - were they to come to the Bentonville/Bella Vista area there would be a lot of people in both cities - retiree and business transplant - who would know what a "Menard's" is.

Comreguy, I think I know the answer to this but...Menard's (Home Improvement centers) have just announced that they're building two new centers in Springfield, MO, their first ever this far south. They have one at Lake of the Ozarks, MO but, like Hy Vee which has one store in Springfield, are basically a midwest chain. I've read journalists say that Springfield is "the northernmost Southern city". There once was a time when I might have agreed growing up, but now I think it's more the southernmost Midwestern city. Hy Vee has a great food selection and a deli/cafe with desserts that can initiate a positively Pavlovian response; however, if they ever came here WM could price-match the you-know-what out of them. (They've only got one store in Spfld anyway vs. 3 in the smaller Missouri metro area of Columbia - I get the feeling H-V is doing a lot of testing down here.) Yet I was wondering if you think Menards would ever go south of the Mason-Dixon line, with NWA being the most likely spot. I doubt it, and in a way it's kind of nice to still have regional chains...but was wondering your thoughts. It would be kind of fun to see their banner-flags flying in the breeze down here. Thanks in advance.

Well said, Locketlady. I've always thought that when the Pleasant Crossing area fills in is when it will REALLY hit us (driving from Jane, MO to West Fork) how big this area now is. (The second area that will bolster this when it fills in is around ARVEST ballpark; the third area, IMO, will be the airport turnoff from I-49 in the future...and that's not even counting what could happen when the Bella Vista Bypass is finished.)

Tourmaline urban lofts (from a San Diego developer) are coming to downtown Bentonville in the Market District. Fascinating: http://www.nwaonline.com/news/2015/feb/07/bentonville-s-market-district-to-house-/

TRB and WMR, Just looking at this map above again, two things: 1. Though Arthur Stilwell (founder of the Kansas City Southern railway) saw that NWA despite its (partial) topographic challenges was the perfect, shortest route between Kansas City (historically America's second biggest rail shipping center) and the Gulf of Mexico, no one seemed to think the same for passenger and vehicle traffic. Amazing. NWA was once seen as an out-of-the-way location for a variety of reasons. Now, its very location may lead to things far bigger than many could have imagined, and it will be amplified by the fact that the location itself (home to what currently is the smallest metropolitan area with at least 3 Fortune 500 company headquarters, two of them Fortune 75 companies) is becoming a significant destination. 2. There aren't going to be that many more new interstate corridors. But in NWA's (and FSM's) case, I-49 could be called "the two-in-one highway". There are essentially two major land shipping lanes that will be opened up when this is finished (and when Texas finishes its side of I-69, which it's furiously working to do at all points in analysis if not yet construction). That's quite amazing. And I still think the completed I-49 will be "the second Walmart" of NWA, which will be nearly squarely in the middle of the completed "hourglass, two-in-one" corridor(s).

TRB, look at the middle of the "hourglass" (I-29, I-35 at the top, I-49, I-69 (Texas-side) at the bottom. There is your "game changer" for both NWA and FSM, when it happens. (And now it's not just a question of "if" but "when"):

Unofficial NWA/FSM combined metro area population as of this Monday: 804,000.