blt23

I'll be surprised if much happens with the Sentinel site before creative village and other obvious vacant lots are more built out. I imagine the size and somewhat unwelcoming borders are going to make urban/pedestrian friendly development a challenge.

Orange County recently posted a 1000+ page report on their transportation initiative webpage (http://www.ocfl.net/TrafficTransportation/TransportationInitiative.aspx) describing the unfunded transportation "needs" that could be covered by the proposed sales tax. Based on a quick look I'm not particularly impressed because it feels incredibly car-centric, is very noncommittal about what any given project includes, and has approximately nothing dedicated to protected cycling infrastructure.

I hope they publish the full plan documents soon, but my initial interpretation is that the existing Sunrail service will stay the same with frequencies of 30 min peak, 60 min midday, and nothing on evening or weekends. Orange County would then add a second service pattern that runs from the airport to the existing Sunrail tracks and north to Maitland (the northernmost station in Orange County) with frequencies of 30 min peak and 60 min midday, evenings, and weekends. I'm skeptical that there's actually a solid plan for OBX. It feels like a political promise that people in the future will have to deal with the mess of.

Those are old renderings from the 3 tower plan.

It seems to me that this project is getting FAA height approval: https://oeaaa.faa.gov/oeaaa/external/searchAction.jsp?action=displayOECase&oeCaseID=476453198

Brightline says they are a year away. Do you have any details on progress in the C03 section? Have they run into problems with one of the bridges?

I don't think there's a grand route agreement to be had. Brightline's planned route is along 417, and they are currently working to get environmental approval for that route. CFX has indicated willingness to cooperate with the 417 route, but they won't give the lease final approval until Brightline has received environmental clearance. The main question now is how much time and cost pain Universal and Hunter's Creek can inflict during the environmental approval process.

In general, I feel that it's good to balance ambition with pragmatism. The current SunRail equipment is still young and good enough for 30-minute headways, so I'm be inclined to keep it for now and instead focus on making sure the next round of equipment isn't diesel. While a 30 minute frequency isn't super convenient, I see having it as a consistent all day frequency as being the point where someone can take SunRail to a medical appointment or a sporting event or dinner with friends without worrying about getting stranded there because there is no train home is coming anytime soon. Moving towards 15 minute service might also create more need for level boarding, which will be complicated and expensive to accomplish, if it's possible at all. In any case, electrification/modernization/transformation of SunRail should be a higher priority than the Orange Blossom Express line.* I'm also cautious about demanding bus lanes, because while I would love to have them everywhere I understand that there are many places where physical and legal constraints will make them near impossible, and at some point it becomes better just move forward with a program of BRT-lite upgrades rather than arguing indefinitely about how dedicated bus lanes would be better. I think I've heard of BRT-lite projects creating significant travel time savings (20%?), but again that requires getting all the little details right. Unfortunately this report doesn't say much about how Lynx might publicly distinguish among the top levels of upgraded bus corridors, which could be a big miss if they don't have a flashy plan of upgrades to be promoted this year. On the issue of split services, if there is demand for stops every 1/4 mile, then those stops should be available for every bus on the route. If there isn't much demand to justify high frequency bus service stopping at a certain location, then there just shouldn't be a stop there - but that's something that should be determined based on specific circumstances and neighborhood engagement. Another advantage of running the high frequency routes as 1 service on 10 minute frequency instead of 2 every 20 minutes is that timed connections with those routes aren't too much of an issue because they come frequently anyway. Beyond that, I absolutely agree that there should be timed connections between the local routes, express routes, and SunRail because otherwise the express routes won't be very useful. I also agree with your positions on fare collection and safe station access, and I hope the BCC can be convinced to increase the transit funding share enough for those issues to be fully addressed. *To expand upon what my rail priorities would be if funding were increased, improvements to SunRail are definitely be at the top of the list. I'm really intrigued by the idea of having an automated light metro that runs Lake Nona - airport - sand lake sunrail - florida mall - OCCC - along I-drive or universal blvd - universal parking garages because it would have a ton of jobs and tourist attractions along it and offer good connections to every major north/south bus corridor in the southern portion of the county (I-drive, Kirkman, 441/OBT, Orange Ave, 436/Semoran), but it would also cost a ton. After that is Orange Blossom Express with as much all day frequency as possible. Of course it would be great to have an east/west rail line in the Colonial corridor as well, but getting right of way for that near downtown is going to be really painful and most of the corridor is car oriented rather than being a nice string of places to connect, so it's further down my personal priority list.

The first thing is that SunRail should run every 30 minutes all day, 7 days a week. The infrastructure for it already exists and it's an easy way to increase ridership and drive TOD at the stations. If we want transit oriented development to happen, then the transit service needs to good enough to be worth orienting around. I would also like to see a strong focus on doing the quick, cheap, and easy things that make buses nicer to use like shelters, wayfinding, and bike/ped access to stops. Of course service frequency needs to increase dramatically too, but I think we all know that. I have reservations about rail because the high cost and long timelines make it a lower return investment, especially when hesitancy over service frequency is involved. I'm very skeptical that a SunRail line along Brightline's tracks will provide much mobility benefit to residents for reasons I detailed here, but I also understand that I stand relatively alone in that opinion. The way I read things, that document IS Mayor Demings' plan, so any lobbying might need to use it as a starting point. The planned express bus network seems good, and I like that most of its routes are designed to run every 30 minutes all day between key economic centers rather than being peak only commuter routes. The idea of creating high frequency routes is also great, but the implementation seems flawed. Splitting the frequency between "local" and "limited" services each running every 20 minutes means that many stops won't actually get high frequency service, and it would get even worse on evenings and weekends when the local would switch to 30 minute headways so the services wouldn't even alternate nicely. My understanding of successful BRT-lite projects in other cities is that they're really about getting all the small details right: frequency, stop spacing, near vs. far side, bus bulbs vs pull-over spaces, level or near level boarding, interaction with bike lanes, transit signal priority, off board fare payment, bus design, shelter design, wayfinding and branding, etc. This report doesn't inspire confidence that Lynx understands what it takes to make these types of routes successful. The goal should be to get enough of the small details right that their collective improvement in comfort and travel times is enough that multiple service levels aren't needed along the same corridor. I'm also curious about the large number of bus transfer centers proposed in the plan, because I really hope that they are focused at key locations and don't require long and slow diversions to places people don't want to go. Unlike the bus portions, the rail aspects of this plan mostly feel like a disaster. The only parts I like are the Sunrail infill station at Holden Ave, somewhat increased Sunrail service, and the lack of Sunrail on Brightline's tracks. It mentions that a light rail line could be built between OIA and OCCC, but rather than actually proposing to build it, the plan is just to set a few dollars aside in case a private partner comes along? And for Orange Blossom Express the plan is to start with high frequency buses to "develop the market", but not to a high enough level for federal funding, so Orange County alone will spend 800 million to set up a commuter rail service that only runs every 60 minutes off peak? This is pretty insane. A better rail plan is needed, but we should also recognize that there are challenges in that. The current Sunrail line runs through multiple counties, and electrification doesn't make sense unless the whole line can be electrified. That means electrification should probably wait until the current trains are getting older and the other partners might be willing to participate. Another big thing is service levels: The part of this I bolded is incredibly important because people can't ride theory to work. The benefit of a transit line is only as good as the service provided, so if a high quality, frequent service isn't going to be run then the infrastructure investment is being wasted. This is why I view all day 30 minute service on the existing Sunrail as so important - if frequent service won't be run on existing infrastructure, why should we ever believe that future infrastructure investments will be used effectively?

They definitely have lots of retail space available: https://retailproperties.cbre.us/p/retail-real-estate-listings/Orlando-FL-32801/societyorlando#plans

They removed a level from the podium which also reduces the total tower heights, so it seems like most of the lost space was going to be parking. I'm not too sad about losing a couple hundred parking spaces on the most transit accessible parcel in Central Florida.

I think that the only way NS ever allows commuter trains on the O-line is with a long term extension to their lease/control of the NCRR and only for the life of that lease. Alternatively, if intercity passenger rail is more important, NCDOT could call NS's O-line bluff at the end of their NCRR lease and take control of the NCRR to prioritize fast, frequent intercity passenger service with local and more limited through freight scheduled and dispatched around it. I just don't see a way to get frequent passenger trains on both lines without spending a ridiculous amount of money.

I think those renderings are still from the 3 tower version. But even from newer renderings, there is a floor missing in the pedestal.

Doesn't Lymmo cover most of what OSCAR was planned to do? What would be the reason for switching from buses to streetcars? I don't expect any light rail proposals anytime soon. The problem is that there just isn't enough right-of-way downtown for light rail to be viable, nor any money available to build it.

What should we be doing to preserve the affordability of these neighborhoods?

I'm not expecting to love Orange County's project list, but I do get the sense that Mayor Demings understands the political playbook for getting these things passed so I'm cautiously optimistic that he can get it done in fall 2022. I don't see all of the benefits going to the southwest portion of the county but I will be curious to hear the tourism industry's position on the measure given the fight over Brightline's route to Tampa and corresponding Sunrail implications.

I thought there were supposed to be 4 stories of parking, not 3?

The idea that "we haven’t cracked the code on how to make it not lifeless" is absurd. The problem of building lively urban environments was solved centuries ago, as a look at any historical European city would show. A more accurate statement is that we haven't been willing to accept the ways of making it not lifeless. How to build lively "dense mixed use" environments: Streets are a big part of it. When the majority of a street right of way is dedicated to moving lots of cars fast, you get the liveliness of metal and glass instead of the liveliness of people. Slowing and reducing car traffic so protected bike lanes and wider sidewalks can be added makes a big difference in the amount of street activity. Sidewalks and how buildings connect with them also matters a lot. Narrow, unshaded sidewalks adjacent to blank walls or parking with frequent curb cuts are a lot less welcoming than wide sidewalks with shade trees and seating and lots of pedestrian access points to directly adjacent buildings. Of course green/shaded space is important, but a random tree or two on a privately held lawn is among the least valuable forms of green space because it's high maintenance, not publicly accessible, and not deluding anyone into thinking it's actually a natural environment. Any dense redevelopment of Lake Ivanhoe Shores (or the Sentinel site, since you mentioned it) should absolutely be expected to include lots of street trees and some small green/pedestrian spaces where people can walk or relax outside, along with Loch Haven Park being only a 1/2 mile away for the occasional activity that requires more space. Density of residential units is also a critical piece because a certain number of people are required to support vibrant commercial activity, but that doesn't mean that tons of high rises are needed. It's not hard to build sufficient density using 4 to 6 story buildings provided that a bunch of them are built together rather than as single buildings. (Again, look at Europe.) Having to build 300+ square feet of parking for every unit doesn't help with density or affordability, but that is a surmountable issue and should be even more reason to invest in transit and building lively, walkable urban spaces. What parcels do you see as the right ones to be razed? Because where you see "the quieter side of a lake next to a major interstate," I see 9+ contiguous acres of older low density buildings and surface parking only 2 miles from the CBD and directly adjacent to a main arterial road leading there, along with being next to a rail line where if the transit service was frequent and all day an infill stop could easily be justified there by having 2k+ residential units within 1/4 mile after redevelopment. If you have any interest in building midrise modern urbanism, this is as good a place as any. Not building anything won't preserve affordability on a large scale. We all know that people are moving to Orlando and refusing to allow the construction of more housing will just drive up the prices of existing housing according to the laws of supply and demand.

To be more specific, the bill includes $66 billion for intercity passenger rail, which breaks down as follows (all spread evenly over 5 years): $22 billion in direct grants to Amtrak for rolling stock upgrades, station accessibility improvements, and other capital improvements to Amtrak owned infrastructure $36 billion (max of 24 to the northeast corridor) for "Federal-State Partnership for Intercity Passenger Rail" grants, which are competitive grants for intercity passenger rail projects that require a minimum 20% non-federal funding share $5 billion for the competitive "Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements (CRISI)" grant program, which awards funds for almost any type of railroad infrastructure project, but generally for single, small projects and again non-federal funding contributions are required $3 billion for a new grade crossing elimination grant program The quick takeaway from this is that new Amtrak services aren't going to happen unless FDOT puts up money to make them happen (both for capital improvements and ongoing service subsidy). I really doubt FDOT wants to compete with Brightline, so more trains are unlikely. Also, Amtrak has no real expansion plan. Their so-called plan is really just a marketing pitch to advertise (to states and municipalities) that federal rail funding is becoming available and Amtrak is willing to work with anyone who has an idea and some local funding to go with it. As an example of their plan not being serious, "Amtrak told CNN Business that to calculate trip times for most of its proposed new routes it researched passenger train times in the mid-1950s to early 1960s and chose the best trip time." https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/01/tech/amtrak-speed-trains/index.html

Ticket search on Brightline's website suggests that the Miami to WPB segment will restart service on November 1st.

If Brightline is serious about privately funding an intercity line along 417 then we should accept that, though. I hope Orange County doesn't get coerced into funding a tourist train while there are so many more local transit needs.

In theory conventioneers could transfer to their hotels in the same way as families going to Disney, but in reality neither conventioneers or families will be excited about about a train to bus/shuttle transfer. From a transportation perspective, a Disney Springs stop and an OCCC stop are very similar. In both cases the stop would be relatively close to places where lots of people want to go, but neither would be close enough for most people to avoid a last mile transfer. So both would do well as intercity rail stops (where a last mile transfer is less of an issue), but would likely struggle attracting ridership as a local connection to the airport.

I'm optimistic that tower 2 happens and that phase 1 includes some sort of grocery store.

I believe the parcel names should actually be X, X-1, and Y, but yes the apartments are in the tall building shown near I-4, the office is to the west of that with "CREA" on the side, and the hotel is just to the north of the office.

I'm a newbie here, but very excited to read about Brightline and other area developments. I believe the opposite – that Brightline’s route wouldn’t be a very good SunRail option because it serves very few origin-destination pairs. A big problem with it is that nobody flying into the airport has Disney Springs as their destination, so any visitors going to Disney hotels would need to transfer to a bus at Disney Springs, adding time and hassle to the trip. Disney has already cancelled their magical express service because it was losing ridership to Uber and Lyft based on being too slow and inconvenient, and it’s hard to believe that a two-seat ride that’s not free would do any better. Attracting local ridership is going to be a challenge too, because the only residential communities the proposed route passes through are Meadow Woods and Hunter’s Creek, neither of which have anything resembling TOD and would provide only a few hundred daily riders at best. Even worse, the route wouldn’t open much new area for TOD, because those areas are already developed with single family housing. Connecting the current SunRail line to the airport would provide some riders, but for that to really be a useful connection SunRail would need to start operating evenings and weekends and at higher frequencies during the day. Even then, the connection would only be projected for a couple thousand daily riders, which can be accommodated easily and at higher frequency on buses, given that a transfer will be required in either case. We could get a dedicated fleet of nice buses to run between MCO and Sand Lake Road SunRail with fancy stations and 15-minute frequency all day for like 1/10 of the capital and operating costs of providing the same connection using SunRail. Operating SunRail over Brightline’s tracks would also face worse financial prospects than the existing line, because instead of being the track owner and collecting rent from other users (CSX and Amtrak) SunRail would be paying to buy trackage rights from Brightline. There would also be the problem of CFX wanting to get reimbursed for reduced toll collections, which could eat into any fare revenue collected. Given that what ridership could be attracted to this line would be dependent on higher frequencies and long operating hours, it’s easy to see it turning into a low-ridership money pit for taxpayers. In my opinion, any funds available for transit would be better spent on getting the existing SunRail line to run every 30 minutes all day long, 7 days a week, and establishing a new high-frequency (BRT-lite?) bus network.