Wayward Memphian

There's only so many irons in the fire that Mr. Bass Pro can handle. In case you didn't know, he bought the former DogPatch USA south of Harrison Ar and turning into another nature park like Dogwood Canyon. I have mixed feelings on what he has done with the property so far. My wife has tons of family in Newton Co AR and will own land nearby one day. Sometimes you don't have to destroy nature to create nature which he has a propensity to do as he has his idealized view what it is.

There is nothing asthetically pleasing about a Top Golf. They are hideous. They belong hidden like the one in Vegas right behind the strip or on a dime a dozen exit on the edge of town near the newest Chick FIL. That said I love Top Golf. The one in XNA ruins Rogers Ar's new mini sky line. I had long been a proponent for that site and the area of the Union project as a new Convention/Covered Stadium to replace Cook and The LB. As the deficiencies of the LB are holding back the UofM in conference growth I just shake my head , but I digress. A soccer specific stadium would be fine but for Christ's sake make it capable of holding 25 to 30 thousand for concerts. Why, expand the Beale Street Music Fest to two weekends and this would be the main stage but keep a river side stage for middle bill acts Bookend Beale with the main performance venues. That River Stage could be the Amp on Mud Island. Smaller stages would be in the new Tom Lee Park. I'm taking the mud element out of it. Anyone that knows my handle on another site knows I've gone on and on about what Mud Island should be... The Tivoli Park (in Copenhagen) of North America Updated Amp Updated River Museum with Aquarium and motion theater like Soarin' at Disney that flys the Mississippi from the head waters to the Gulf. Outdoor small performance stages A selection of choice rides just like Tivoli like a Star Flyer. You'd be amazed at what could be put in tastefully given the small footprint. Updated River Walk with enhanced botanical features giving it a botanical park feel. Weekly fireworks off the southern end during the summer timed with cruise ship overnight dockings. Year Around goals like Christmas lighting display with a European styled outdoor Christmas Market and Ice rink. Signature element is a giant Christmas tree light show at the Gulf, ala Silver Dollar City and Dollywood. I'd like to see a craft brewery with a riverside biergarten. Muddy Waters Brew Works. No charge for the name. Host a regional Octoberfest with area breweries setting up ticketed tents.

It looks like Southwest is cutting way back on MEM/MCO nonstops clearly as a means to Boost ATL thru traffic. Last gander at their book engine shows nonstops only on Sat and two of them at that. Nada on Thur, Fri, Sun, and Mon. BWI isn't showing as a nonstop right now either. Again, I think at the cost of boosting ATL loads. Memphis doesn't need Delta light. AA will have a field day with DCA service. Look for Frontier to increase frequency on MEM/MCO MEM is glaring empty spot on Spirit's station list. Will that change in 2022. Will Memphis gain Breeze in 2022?

Allegiant announced a planned joint venture with Viva Aerobus of Mexico. If approved scheduled service between MEM and CUN is on the first 11 routes identified list. The 5 year route map has Memphis and Cabo as a potential route.

The area is still very ripe for a large scale outdoor waterpark which this isn't. The trick is it being in the right place without it becoming a daily baby sitter for AP holders. A smaller, dry ride amusment/ theme park could do well. Along with the Zoo it would make Memphis a much more marketable extended weekend getaway. I still think the best plan for Mud Island would be Tivoli in Copenhagen Denmark style park Small selection of quality rides, aquarium, park like setting to mix with the existing teeming. Like the Museum, River Walk and Amp. Friday or Sat night fireworks during the summer, Fall Crafts festival and Winter /Christmas Market with lights and theming. Paid parking and location downtown discourages it being a baby sitter along with adult needed age requirements .

The pusback from the surrounding residences is going to make an on campus site near impossible. The yells and screams of slapping it down in Audubon Park will be heard all the way to Philly like bells ringing in 1811/12 from the earthquakes. Putting it at the Park campus will cost them something else like a practice field or more. The inadequacies of the LB was known after Memphis lost out to Jacksonville and Charlotte for an NFL team because they would not commit to a new stadium. They have since spent over 25 years about what it would have taken to build a stadium then just to keep the LB barely acceptable and looking at tens of millions more. Maybe the State finally helps since they seem committed to West Tenn now with the Ford development and it may spur more action on I-69 as well. Lee likely has two terms terms to make West Tenn his Nashville.

And now the City has hired an Architect to study whether to renovate or if a new stadium is needed as the LB has become an albatross around the neck of the U of M's neck to gain admittance in a better conference. The Commercial Appeal parcel would have been an excellent location for a new stadium in the range of 350 to 500 million at 52 to 55k permanent seating with temp seating in emdzone to boost to 62 to 65 thousand for the Liberty Bowl Look at Birmingham's new 200 million stadium at 45k. Tigers home games Southern Heritage Classic Venue for larger stadium concerts Host larger acts during Beale Street Music feat was an expansion to two weekends Possible Soccer use.

Again, I think the drive for more gates is to give whichever airline a gate at whatever time they want it. XNA is not hamperer by flight timing restrictions. So, when an airline sez when can add this, at this time, they'll be a gate open. This is a snapshot of the final FAA enplanement figures for 2019. As I have posted before, XNA was again averaging 15 to 17% growth for the first 2 months of 2020 before Covid. XNA was running down LIT fast.

If it grew by 70% over the next 25 years, that's well over 800K speaking in general terms. As a local speaking, it seems to be picking up steam again. But... the study the airport seems to be using that i was referring to was this: https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2019/dec/15/xna-could-hit-2-8-million-enplanements-/ Calculations by Mead & Hunt, an airport development consulting firm, say passengers could surpass 1 million by 2021 and reach 2.88 million by 2040. Projections also say passengers could reach 936,139 by the end of this year. Federal Aviation Administration forecasts anticipate XNA not breaking 1 million passengers until 2030 and being about 1.3 million by 2040. The FAA data anticipated 799,978 passengers this year, which has already been surpassed. The Mead & Hunt study used data from this year as a base supplemented with historical growth trends at the airport, Federal Aviation Administration forecast data and socioeconomic data for the region, such as population growth and personal income growth. Various scenarios were averaged for a growth figure of 4.1%. If current projections are met, the average annual growth for the past two years will have been about 13.7%, according to the memo. The airport's plan, using 2012 as a base, projected an annual growth rate of 2.4% and a 2015 update projected average growth of 7.9% per year. "These forecasts are going to be low again because we just can't get it right because you're doing so great," said Ryk Dunkelberg with Mead & Hunt. "These enplanements were done specifically for you all, and they're not going to the FAA." An enplanement is defined as one passenger boarding a commercial aircraft at the airport. The memo notes current high levels of double-digit growth aren't likely to continue through the next 20 years at XNA, but it is likely passengers will continue to increase at a rate higher than the national average, so airport officials will have to continue scrambling to keep up. "We think the Mead & Hunt projections seem realistic," said Aaron Burkes, chief executive officer at the airport. "We have obviously spent a great deal of time thinking about enplanement projections since that one variable accounts for such a significant part of our overall funding model." The Mead & Hunt projections were done "in the best interests of the airport" not for FAA approval, Dunkelberg said. FAA approval of passenger projections as part of a master plan or environmental document is required to be eligible for federal money. The information in the Mead & Hunt projections will be used by airport officials for internal planning of capital projects. The XNA board wants to trigger improvements based on certain target levels of passengers. "The years are not important. What's important is when we reach that number of enplanements, and we could do it plus or minus four or five years with our forecast," Dunkelberg said. "What's important is the number of enplanements and then the facilities that are required to accommodate those numbers of enplanements." Dunkelberg said if the numbers ever vary from actual by 10% or more, the projections should be refigured.

XNA's advisors had predicted a doubling of passengers along with the population to around 2040-45 right before Covid hit. As posted within this thread, it as within overtaking LIT in a couple of years before Covid. I think XNA's main thinking is that the new concourse will accommodate larger aircraft and the gates having the space to do it. Frontier is up to 3 destinations and they are flying in 180 seaters. Allegiant, same deal. Breeze has 100 to 115 seats and are getting 130 to 140 seaters starting this month. More traffic may mean more mainline from the Legacies. These would be the planes that are the last in, overnight at the gate and first to leave. If and when Southweat comes calling, every plane is at least 150 seats. They'll likely overnight one or two as well. The gates are needed to accommodate all the airlines desired time slots in the morning and at the end of the day. They'll be empty most of the day. Little Rock overnights at least two Southwest planes. Most stations overnights at least two. There's two gates that has to handle 150 passengers minimum if both stat at a gate overnight and most usually do. XNA is already working on apron expansion for extra overnight room.

LIT seems to run out of steam for it's Saturday only MIA flight in AA. They have thrown some incentives at it to bring it back for NOV to 2022 but it has to sell some tickets. LIT is also concerned that they may lose their DCA flight via AA it's load factor was in the mid 70% range in 2019 and hasn't sufficiently rebounded post 2020 yet. I think it is a bit premature to call it doomed but it isn't doing well even andbin trouble with Covid taken in to account. https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/sep/29/dc-lr-air-route-at-risk-of-being-cut/?news-arkansas Compare to Memphis with it's 3 times daily flights often scheduled with mainline equipment(A319s). XNA is moving forward with a second concourse with 2023 targeted for construction. Sounds like they are lining this up with the access road timeline. It'll nearly double the gates to around 25. It has also purchased more land to accommodate an east/west runway in the next 25 years. Their advisor states two runways is all XNA will ever need.

It will help the Airport as well, look for Delta's DTW flights go Mainline some of the time vs. The CRJs. Lot's of folks will be flying in and out to call upon the site.

Memphis is doubtful as a future hub but low cost carriers can make Memphis a focus. I still think Breeze can do well here and with some flights to the PNW and Bay Area with their A220s and adding MYS and TPA especially if Southwest doesn't add TPA back. American has mentioned Memphis several times as a city it sees potential in. That doesn't mean a hub but it may mean more non hub lras than daily directs like the MCO flight we saw this summer. Before Covid, they had all hubs except JFK(covered by LGA) and LAX connecting to Memphis. I still feel that LAX is still possible. Allegiant is basically flying it near daily half the year along with LAS. Allegiant's flight to LAX and LAS are performing very well. Also, more and more people will either fly into or out of MEM as river cruising is set to triple in 2023. Memphis is still developing as a O&D airport without the pop growth due to it being so stunted for years. Jonesboro is growing a bit with wages increasing, MEM is the default airport for NEA.

Frontier now adding MEM/MIA F9 will now serve Denver, Las Vegas, Orlando Intl and Miami Intl. I can see Southwest adding Las Vegas in 2022. With the addition of ATL, they seem content on one MCO nonstop daily with some added service here and there. If Southwest doesn't add TPA back to daily, it is sitting there for Breeze along with New Orleans for them to start Memphis service. I could see them also trying out ORF(Norfolk).

LIT-MCO is a consistent top 40 unserved route, XNA-MCO is not. Yet today Frontier announced XNA-MCO on Fridays and Mondays starting Nov 1

Not really a pier, again like Tivoli. You just look at piers to show you how to maximize space. I guess it would be a hybrid of sorts. Here is an example of the theming of the rides I would be going for. This is a newer Zamperla flat ride would fit nicely witha little more thrilling Zamperla Air Race. An example from the one at Tivoli(notice the eatery under it)

The Star Flyer would be my first 'show stopper' It can 'draw' on it's own like a giant observation wheel does. I would also include an indoor hall complete with a half dozen kiddie rides. This structure would be at least two levels and have 'birthday' rooms for rent along with a cafe. The rides would have a basic but unified design theme that envies like late 1800s ornamental ironwork of the the Steamboat era with a whimsical steampunk touch. They would be a unified color scheme with Gold as the trim color. As the pak expansion it's offering. You maximize your space and I have seen this done at Tivoli. You build a ride on top of a ride. The bottom would be your bumper car like attraction while you build a structure above to host your typical Dumbo- esque Spinner. Your Food stands, bathrooms, and shops would be underneath coaster tracks. You design rides to share the same footprint like a log flume mixed with a coaster or a junior coast mixed witha high thrill coaster. I have seen this at Phantasialand in Germany. Last coaster design is insane these days. I can get a coaster that has a launch, forward and backward cars and the next train the cars would spin. Example: There's so much out there that can maximize a small foodprint and can be design to not feel crammed. I think about Coney Island in New York. Zamperla rides runs most of that park under contract. They supply the rides as they showcase the rides they manufacture as well as manage the park. Mack(see video)produces rides and owns and operates Europa Park Germany. Pull the best ideas from Tivoli Kemah Boardwalk Galveston Pleasure Pier Coney Island Santa Monica Pier Morey's Boardwalk The list goes on and on. Here's Kemah's compact Woody

Didn't look up Tivoli Copenhagen did ya. With Mud Island , space is a premium so vertical is a necessity. Growthbinto the park would be slow. My first ride would be a Star Flyer. The sweeping views of the River, Bridges, Pyramid and Sky line would be stunning day and night, and you can get them at 600ft. I've been on this one at Tivoli. I would like to have a wheel as well but space. They do make hubless ones and maybe a coast could pass through. I'd go for enclosed gondolas to extend the season to year round. How about incorporating one in a third Bridge, lol.

I have said it elsewhere and maybe here... Mud Island needs to be Memphis' version of Tivoli in Copenhagen. It has several of the elements in place already with the River Museum and River Walk. Add a Mississippi River inspired Disney'esque Soarin' flying theater to an updated Museum, add an Aquarium on the southern end, land bridge to Beale Street Landing, update the AMP and add an architecturally significant cover that doesn't interfere with the skyline sight lines, add more botanical features along the River Walk to "garden" it up and rides on the north end, create a longer season with a European style Christmas market, lights and temp features like an ice rink. It would zero in, along with the zoo as an excellent extended weekend getaway for families. I'm open to questions on design elements and ride selections.

This is not new for Frontier, they have flown it before. Allegiant makes bank on this route. They fly it 6 days a week during the summer and holidays. In fact, they had set to fly it 6 days a week Summet 2020 before Covid with 2 frequencies on a couple of peak days. It is only a matter of time before Southwest adds this. Right now, their fleet scheduling is a mess so it will be into 2022 before any flights happen. Allegiant is flying very full birds westward these days from MEM. LAX is at 6 days a week this summer and before Christmas. I got to believe AA gets around to that or Southwest will. Maybe Breeze to Burbank. I figure Breeze is in MEM's future and is just waiting on the B concourse to finish.

Like I said, they are throwing a plane on it when there's some slack in the system. This will the case for many Southwest routes as they cope with adding destinations during the pandemic and not having enough metal or humans to return the rest of the network back to pre pandemic frequencies and service. Their CEO has said as much as their focus is now on getting that back. This opens the door for others like Breeze. Here's an example. Southwest has flown MEM/TPA since the day they took over AirTran's Memphis operations. They nixed it during the pandemic. They have brought it back to Sat Only. There's much beotching about this in MEM. They couldn't restart this daily if wanted to right now. Their only saving grace is that MEM is in the middle of finishing up their revamp of Concourse B where all carriers will consolidate. I have to believe that is the only reason Breeze hasn't landed there yet is they are waiting till the new B opens. MEM is very similar to SDF(Louisville).

MEM and XNA gained Frontier twice weekly to Vegas service starting in Aug. This is still one where LIT has the advantage with Southwest's LAS nonstop. Allegaint flies MEM/LAS six days a week in the summer as well as LAX. I figure Southwest to LAS from the neighbor over east is inevitable and likely starting in 2022.

It is there. The catch is that it is less than daily and those days aren't set in stone. Mostly seen on off peak days like Sat and Tue where there's fleet slack.

Allegiant hasn't taken kindly to Breeze at XNA Adding PIE quickly to answer XNA/TPA and adding FLL in the fall to head off additional Breeze route announcements at a time it starts receiving their new A223s. Hopefully LIT gets in on this. I got to say, the Breeze "Nicer" bundle is a great value.

Routing issues and size. Memphis lowered their landing fees and rental fees today. I suspect you'll see the A223s in places like Memphis. It screams west coast routing. Allegiant is flying MEM-LAX/LAS 6 days a week a bunch these days. In fact theycarw flying MEM/LAX daily at this point for most of Dec 2021.