2006 Vote

[monsoon]

They still have to go through and review each provisional ballot and count the ones that get approved. That will take till Nov 17th at which time the MCC race will become certified.

[uptownliving]

I was looking over the NC Election Law and for the first recount, all they will do is load up all the memory cards from the different voting booths and put that in their master record, just like they did on Election Day. It should only take a day to do this.

If that recount shows different winners than the original count or different vote count totals then a 2nd recount can be ordered, which that takes a 3% sample (4785) of the printed paper ballots which will be hand counted by 4 people at the Board of Elections. A 2nd recount could take a couple days to complete.

[uptownliving]

Something else I found interesting was that about 5% of the people that voted in Mecklenburg County did not place a vote in the Mecklenburg County Commision At Large race. That means that about 7532 voters did not vote in the Commision Race.

This is what is called "undervoting". The 5% undervote in 2006 is half of the 10% undervote in 2004 for County Commision.

With a race so tight those 7532 voters could have made a difference, but for whatever reason they decided not to.

[uptownliving]

WCNC is reporting that there might have to be a revote in the NC House District 100. It seems that about 500 people in a precint off of Rama Rd voted in the wrong House District Race. District 100 is represented by Jim Black, who is currently leading his challenger by 7 votes.

This issue has been sent to the NC Board of Elections who will decide what to do.

[voyager12]

CL did a post mortem on the MCC race this week. Assuming the count holds they were exploring whether it would signal that Mecklenburg has become irrevocably Blue and Republicans are shut out of power permanently. I don't see Republicans being shut so much as moderate Republicans and Independents being turned off by the candidates stances. If the Republican slate had taken more centrist positions on transit, taxes and left out the gay baiting, they would have done better. I guess Puckett gambled that he could play out of the Bill James playbook one more time and sweep all the At Large seats by recruiting like minds. He simply misjudged Mecklenburg's moderate trend. The county is drawing moderate Northeastern Republicans by the droves and they don't agree with the social stances of conservative Southern Republicans. The Mecklenburg County Republican Party is going to have to become more centrist if they want to be relevant in the future.

[monsoon]

CL did a post mortem on the MCC race this week. Assuming the count holds they were exploring whether it would signal that Mecklenburg has become irrevocably Blue and Republicans are shut out of power permanently. ...

[MZT]

If New York and Los Angeles can elect Republican mayors, then we have not seen the last of Republicans here. I expect what we'll see, is some evolution within the party, and new candidates will emerge that are a better fit with the people they represent.

[voyager12]

The article also mentioned the underlying tension between white and black Democrats in Mecklenburg. Since Rembert was knocked off and she campaigned more than Helms some in the black community are attributing her loss and the loss of other black candidates to racism. I voted for Rembert along with Roberts and Helms and I don't think it is clear enough to draw any conclusions. Although I have read about this in CL and The Observer before. Dilworth,Elizabeth,and Plaza Midwood may swing mostly Democratic but that is where the similarities end with most of the rest of the poorer more minority urban neighborhoods. Consequently, these residents may lean progressive but when it comes down to it they only vote for white Democrats. I hope this is not the case. Although anectdotally I have to say I saw no Rembert yard signs in Dilworth, while Roberts signs were everywhere, and very few in Plaza Midwood and Elizabeth. But this could also be attributed to the fact that Roberts ran a very strong and visible campaign. It's definitely an interesting and disturbing question

[monsoon]

Since Rembert was knocked off and she campaigned more than Helms some in the black community are attributing her loss and the loss of other black candidates to racism. ....

[voyager12]

^ That would be one logical explanation. In addition, miserable weather on Election Day is never good news for Democrats. I guess since Charlotte has had a checkered past regarding race because of busing, it will always be mentioned whether valid or not. Although compared to other major Southern cities Charlotte's racial history was very peaceful and marked by cooperation between blacks and whites.

[monsoon]

^ That would be one logical explanation. ...

[davidclt]

case. Although anectdotally I have to say I saw no Rembert yard signs in Dilworth, while Roberts signs were

[dubone]

With early voting, there is almost no excuse to not vote anymore. There wasn't bad weather in all of the days they did early voting.

The whole notion of early voting was to give a chance to people who were working class or use transit and couldn't easily plan to vote on actual election day. Yet early voting has turned out to be a convenience for suburban republicans juggling the kids' sports and lessons.

I don't think the Rembert thing was racial, it was just the unfortunate math of turnouts and split tickets. I think some dems split tickets and dropped Rembert because of the school board perceptions. I think some republicans actually voted for Roberts because she had signs in more republican neighborhoods.

[monsoon]

I notice that in some of the precincts that are in areas that are predominately Black, Rembert got significantly more votes than any of the other candidates, democratic or republican. What this tells me is that voters in these places only voted for Rembert and left their other choices blank. This is a tactic that has been used by campaigns to insure they get enough votes to get onto the board. The reason this didn't work this time is because of the overwhelming turnout in the suburbs. The suburbs have learned how to turn out the vote manly due to the problems with CMS

The people making the racist charges have it pointed the wrong way, and I think they would have served themselves better if they had actually bothered to go and vote.

[dubone]

I have to think about that a little bit to figure out how only voting for one person helps anything.

I remember one time in college, I overheard a girl say "I can't vote [in the student body election] because there are no women running". After that, I resolved to be deeper in my reasons for voting than just the obvious features of gender, race, and party. (Well, except judgeships, pretty much that's a coin flip).

[monsoon]

Here is the theory behind it.

Suppose you have 3 preciencts, 1, 2, 3, 3 candidates A, B, C, and two open seats. Mean voters pick two of three. Suppose Pct 1 is extreme to the left and supports A, and Pct 2 is moderate, and Pct 3 is extreme and points to right and supports C You might have something like this.

Pct 1 Pct 2 Pct 3

A 500 250 50

B 450 500 450

C 50 250 500

Candidate A = 800 votes

Candidate B = 1400 votes

Candidate C = 800 votes.

A few votes either way decides whether extremist candidate A or C gets in. However if you use block voting in one of the extremist districts you get this.

Pct 1 Pct 2 Pct 3

A 500 250 50

B 0 500 450

C 0 250 500

Candidate A = 800 votes

Candidate B = 950 votes

Candidate C = 750 votes.

Pct 1 effectively blocked out the extremist candidate from Pct 3. This is really simplified, but this tactic has been successfully used many times in past years for the at large school board. I've seen the voter cards passed out at Tryon Hills elementary when I used to vote there for example that indicated this is the way to vote.

Now that the North and the SE gets out the vote now it isn't as easy to pull this off and you can look at the change of the at large school board over the last few years as a definate result of that.

[voyager12]

From a media perspective, pointing to racism is a surefire way to get increased readership and ratings. Was some of the vote motivated by racial preference on both sides? Sure. Although it was probably not a large percentage. The CL article also mentioned that the Meck Dem Party did nothing to build support for their candidates and all the momentum was on the Republican side. It comes down to money and on the Democratic side Roberts was the only one who had a grassroots machine to push her ahead. Republicans had more streetside rallies, signs, and got state Republican funding for an attack ad. And they still came up just short. Speaking of votes....are we going to get some kind of definitive announcement on totals tomorrow? Or is it just a confirmation of the first vote and we have to wait longer for the final result?

[dubone]

Thanks for the proof . That actually does make more sense now, but I am shocked that organizers were able to get enough players to make it work.

I guess we find out tomorrow what the official count is, and then we get the recount. So we won't have certainty tomorrow.

[monsoon]

^As you can see in this and past elections, the difference between 3rd place and 4th isn't that much. If you use that method in a few key preicents, then it will work if the turnout is high enough. I have gotten voting cards that several times said that you don't have to vote for all 3 candidates. Instead only vote for your favorite. The message sent out depended upon the sender.

[voyager12]

We seemed to be headed for recounts in Hayes/Kissell race for sure and most likely Helms/McGarry. At least we don't have hanging or pregnant chads to worry about

[monsoon]

Puckett said in yesterday's Huntersville Herald in regards to his 4th place showing, that Republicans such as himself are at a disadvantage because there is only one early voting location in the entire Northern part of Mecklenburg.

[atlrvr]

Republican such as him are at a disadvantage because they continually publically deride mass transit. Even with all the negative media sentiment, it's obvious that the silent majority wants this to pass.

Just out of curiousity, where is the northern early voting station. Unless it's in Davidson, he needs to quit his whining and spend the next two years try out how to serve voters rather than be a "no" man.

[RiverwoodCLT]

I know some people in north Meck. and glad to see Puckett was out due to his stands on issues.

[monsoon]

Just out of curiousity, where is the northern early voting station. Unless it's in Davidson, he needs to quit his whining and spend the next two years try out how to serve voters rather than be a "no" man.

[monsoon]

Final Results

Jennifer Roberts (D) - 78,494

Parks Helms (D) - 74,615

Dan Ramirez - 74,541

- - - - - - - - -

Kaye McGarry - 74,275

Jim Puckett - 73,485

Wilhelmenia Rembert (D) - 73,391

Interesting the two most controversial candidates ended up at the bottom.

Hayes is still about 330 votes ahead of Kissell. Kissell is going to as for a recount. This was a disappointment for me.

Black maintains his spot by 20 something votes.