Latest State Census Numbers (2018)

[arcturus]

For July 1 2017 to July 1 2018  Michigan was #22 in population growth at 19,468.

Other Midwest states:  Illinois (49) Indiana (18) Ohio (19) Wisconsin (20).  Indiana pretty much hit it out of the park from a % change.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803

 

[GRDadof3]

13 hours ago, arcturus said:

For July 1 2017 to July 1 2018  Michigan was #22 in population growth at 19,468.

Other Midwest states:  Illinois (49) Indiana (18) Ohio (19) Wisconsin (20).  Indiana pretty much hit it out of the park from a % change.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803

 

It will be interesting to see the MSA and city estimates when they come out in March 2019. I think GR will top the 200,000 mark. 

Minnesota did pretty well too for being a cold Northern State. I don't think you could pay me enough to move to Indiana though. 

All of the Great Lakes States lost people in the last year. New York, Illinois and California lost a staggering number. 

[GRLaker]

I haven't been keeping track of the annual estimates for states - more so the cities. I guess I am surprised to see that in the last year we have lost almost 17,000 people to domestic migration. I figured with the rise of Grand Rapids and slow resurgence of Detroit that we would start to see that number even out, if not go in the opposite direction. 

[arcturus]

Could of been worse.  MI had a pretty decent Int'l net migration number for a state its size (anyone drive through Kentwood lately?).  Historically Detroit has had its fair share too.  But it's hard to offset the continuing migration to the sun belt with the aging demographic.

[MJLO]

6 hours ago, GRLaker said:

I haven't been keeping track of the annual estimates for states - more so the cities. I guess I am surprised to see that in the last year we have lost almost 17,000 people to domestic migration. I figured with the rise of Grand Rapids and slow resurgence of Detroit that we would start to see that number even out, if not go in the opposite direction. 

Don't be surprised to see the bulk, or all of that domestic outflow coming from the thumb.  Specifically the area of the northern I-75 corridor (Flint, Saginaw, the thumb) as a region has had a significant hampering impact on Michigan's numbers as a whole.  The Detroit area is still likely suffering from domestic outflow to a degree as well.   

However I will bet that when the county numbers are released in March you will still see positive domestic inflow into W. Michigan.   Grand Rapids and it's CSA has carried the state in over all population increase, as well as domestic inflow gains for the last 15 years.  I think there were a couple of years in the mid 00's where GR had domestic outflow, but it became a Midwestern leader again after the great recession ended. 

[GRDadof3]

5 minutes ago, MJLO said:

Don't be surprised to see the bulk, or all of that domestic outflow coming from the thumb.  Specifically the area of the northern I-75 corridor (Flint, Saginaw, the thumb) as a region has had a significant hampering impact on Michigan's numbers as a whole.  The Detroit area is still likely suffering from domestic outflow to a degree as well.   

However I will bet that when the county numbers are released in March you will still see positive domestic inflow into W. Michigan.   Grand Rapids and it's CSA has carried the state in over all population increase, as well as domestic inflow gains for the last 15 years.  I think there were a couple of years in the mid 00's where GR had domestic outflow, but it became a Midwestern leader again after the great recession ended. 

Don't forget the city of Detroit too. For every thousand residents that move into lofts in Midtown, 10 - 15,000 people move out of the neighborhoods every year.  

[MJLO]

So because I'm a giant population stats nerd every year I break down the county population stats by region.  I know this is UP-Grand Rapids, but it might be interesting to some to see how GR compares to other Michigan regions.

I break up the state as follow:

There continues to be an East/West divide in population trends.  The UP as a whole continues to leak population(this appears the heaviest in the western counties along the Wisconsin border) and will likely drop below the 300k people mark for the first time in over 100 years.  The Northern lower peninsula has slowed its population loss, and has gained residents since 2010.  This is almost entirely due to population growth around the Grand Traverse region.   The eastern counties that border Lake Huron are still slowly losing population, while almost all of the western counties bordering Lake Michigan are posting small gains (except the Traverse area which is only 2nd to the Grand Rapids area in % growth).

The counties around Grand Rapids continue to lead Michigan's growth.  The Grand Rapids metro ranks among the faster growing metro areas in the Midwest.  It is the fastest growing region that is not a state capital, or home to a major research university.  Grand Rapids MSA showed a slight softening of growth in this years numbers.  This is more statistical than anything.  The counties on the periphery continued the stronger growth trends they have seen over the last couple of years.  While growth did slow in Kent County, 2018 was a realignment year of how MSA's are calculated.  The realignment removed higher growth Barry County from both the MSA and CSA and added in stagnant growth Ionia County.    That's a loss of 550 residents to the MSA's YoY growth.  Barry County doesn't have a big enough core to be a micropolitan area, hence why it was removed from the statistical areas altogether.   Looking at over all trends the greater West Michigan region has remained fairly constant since 2010.  Barry County has always been included as part of the GR MSA.  I was pretty shocked to see it removed, especially since the bulk of it's growth is occurring along the border of Kent County.  It must have just barely dipped below the commuting thresh hold according to the ACS.

The growth around the Lansing area appeared to be accelerating over the last couple of years.  This year showed a slowing in that growth, which is not uncommon in year over year trends for it to vary.  This years growth was about half of last years.  It will be interesting to see if it gets adjusted higher when revisions come out. 

The I-75 corridor(including thumb) contains about 60% of the states overall population.  It is also the region that is synonymous with Michigan's long term branding as a Rustbelt and declining state.  The region as a whole is posting population gains.  This is completely due to  the Southern I-75 corridor which includes the counties around Detroit.  When looking at those numbers the Detroit area(including Ann Arbor) is continuing it's slow but steady population recovery.  I actually think the revitalization of Detroit will start accelerating it's growth.  If you look at the trends for Wayne County since 2010, the decline numbers have slowly crept toward the zero mark since 2012.  This years releases show the smallest decline for Wayne County since I've been following these numbers.  

 

The Northern I-75 corridor continues to post the largest population losses in the state.  The area anchored by Flint, Saginaw and the rural thumb has lost 4% of it's population since 2010.   These losses are also showing signs of slowing. Genessee County( Flint)  only lost 700ish residents which is significantly smaller than the previous few years.  When this area is removed from the datasets the state as a whole performs much better.  There needs to be significant economic investment in the area if these trends are ever going to truly change.  With all of the struggles and transitions the state has gone through it seems unlikely to happen anytime soon.  I do believe that if the city of Detroit continues to receive the level of investment it's been seeing, the region as whole will start showing stronger growth numbers and will continue to offset the stagnant losses of the Rustbelt cities that haven't been able to transition. 

OK I'm done.  Sorry about the TLDR