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colemangaines

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Posts posted by colemangaines

  1. The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread

    in Nashville

    Posted

    The youtuber CityNerd did a video about rail suitability for city pairs a few months ago. His methodology was a little bare, he only used the populations of the metro areas at each end and then divided by the travel time between them. So any extra factors like economic or cultural connections between cities wouldn't show up. Anyway, here's the map he made of the 56 highest weighted city pairs for rail connections in North America.

    image.thumb.png.59051bbcbbcfac185516212d1bd77bfe.png

     

    Here's an example of the calculation he did for each city pair:

    image.thumb.png.05ff8c8b3466a5eea397ce4d59879b0c.png

     

    Long story short, I think Nashville has a ton of great rail pairing opportunities with nearby cities (Atlanta, Chattanooga, Memphis, Louisville, Knoxville, Huntsville, etc.) but there's just so many great potential routes elsewhere in the country for Amtrak/Brightline/whoever to focus on right now.

     

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  2. Nashville Bits and Pieces

    in Nashville

    Posted

    I'm not sure about other processes/systems but helicopters are often an option for HVAC systems. The blowers, chillers, and RTUs are delivered as complete units, and the big ones used for high rises are sometimes above the weight rating for a crane or can't be navigated into tight urban spaces.

    Loading up from the street sounds pretty insane though, I wish I could've been there to see it. If I remember correctly, the big chiller unit for 505 was also placed there by helicopter.

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  6. Project Thread/New Construction/Photo du jour/Const. CAMs

    in Nashville

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

    Daughter asked me to post here to see if anyone can give us locations of old brick industrial smoke-stacks in Nashville both out-of-commission and still functioning. The only two I could think of off the top were the one at Vandy (demolished now I believe) and the one at Rolling Mil Hill. 

    Oh, it's for a photography project she's doing for college credit. 

    Off the top of my head:

    - The Smokeless Tobacco building has one at the intersection of Harrison Street and 10th Ave N.

    - The Omohundro Water Treatment Plant, on the south bank of the Cumberland right by the Shelby Bottoms train trestle. Might be hard to photograph but you can see it from the boat ramp on the opposite side of the river.

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    Nashville Bits and Pieces

    in Nashville

    Posted

    After watching the video Ron posted somewhere (can't remember which topic) about the most stagnant skylines in the US, I wanted to do some research into which skylines have been the most dynamic and growing. So for the 50 largest metros in the US, I calculated what percentage of the buildings were completed in the last ten years.

     

    Some notes about the methodology:

    - I only included the metro's primary skyline. So I counted Dallas's skyline but not Fort Worth, San Francisco but not Oakland, etc.

    - To keep this from taking too much of my time, I exclusively used data from Wikipedia. I'm sure there are inaccuracies somewhere, someplace in the data, but I'm not going to invest the time to independently verify over two thousand data points.

    - Each city's percentage is calculated using their Wikipedia page's cutoff height. For example, NYC only lists buildings over 650 ft, and even then it's one of the longest lists. If every city used 650 ft, most of them would have zero buildings listed. It balances out anyway since the cutoff height is applied to both the numerator and denominator of the percentage, even though it varies greatly from city to city. I included the cutoff heights for reference.

    - I omitted Fresno, CA because I couldn't find a list for it and Washington, DC since it doesn't have a traditional skyline.

    - A few cities' lists included buildings that are under construction but already at/near full height, so I did the same for Nashville.

     

    image.thumb.png.9f11b9b336a7365da61864f9d2036bf7.png

    image.png.026d2b6378d1716f5304def9e6f54f40.png

     

    image.thumb.png.83156d39fbf98abd2ab3a9985775409b.png

     

    Thoughts:

    - First off, I can't believe Nashville tops the list by such a wide margin. We all know there's a lot going on, but the fact that over two thirds of our skyline is a decade old or younger is mind boggling.

    - I had no idea NYC was doing so well; they've had 48 buildings >650 ft go up in the last ten years.

    - The aggregate percentage for the cities on this list is 20.9%. Only 16 cities are above this average. It still seems impressive to me, though, that American cities as a whole grew their skylines by ~20% in a decade. I think that speaks to the larger trend of urban renewal and revitalization of downtown areas.

     

    Let me know your thoughts!

     

     

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  8. 2024 Forecasts and Predictions

    in Nashville

    Posted

    Predictions: I think if interest rates do end up coming down in 2024, we could see an uptick in land deals as developers start to ramp up. There's a lot of huge, well-located parcels in or near downtown that would be a no brainer for a large developer if the macro environment was more favorable. Spots like the former Station Disctrict site, the 7.5 acres on 16th and Church owned by dialysis clinic, the federal office building on 8th and Broadway, some of the lots around KVB/Peabody to 5th/6th, etc.

    Wish list: I'm hoping the next round of proposals are of a higher calibre than what we've had in the last few years. Not trying to complain or sound ungrateful - we've had amazing growth for over a decade now, but so many of the high rises that came up were in the 300-400ft range. Hopefully between the growth we've continued to sustain, our comparitively strong performance in office, hotel, and residential occupancies downtown since the pandemic, and maybe some favorable amendments to the Bonus Height Program this summer, we could see a new class of 500+ft proposals over the next couple years. 

     

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  11. The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread

    in Nashville

    Posted

    2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

    To say downtown is not for tourist for the most part is an understatement. I even consider the folks that are living downtown in the STR's for 6 moths or less tourist. They are not permanent residents, and most are young and party goers downtown for the nightlife and a good time. How many of the residential buildings are being used for STR's vs permanent residential buildings?

    As of the 2020 census there's around 23,000 people living in downtown and midtown, around 3 sq. miles. It was 11,000 in that same area in 2010, and it's only going up. Just because you and your loved ones don't have a significant connection to Nashville doesn't mean there aren't plenty of people that do.

     

    2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

    Again, Metro has not confronted the issue of Mass Transit and that is a glaring open wound. Most people have no option but to drive and park when they come downtown.  Bikes are not safe in our downtown and Ubers and taxis really do not take that may vehicles off of the downtown streets. In some manners it makes thing worse as they all are going to the same places. Metro consistently puts the cart in front of the horse, a dead horse. You may be the exception to the rule as far as scooters, Ubers and the like but most people are not as travel savvy as you are in Nashville. You do know as well as I do that the majority of folks do not use the bus and tourist coming to Nasville do not use the bus.

    I agree with you for the most part - I tried to make a distinction between me personally "needing" and "wanting" to park downtown mainly because the bus is often really inconvenient. It's embarassing that a city/metro of our size has a bus system more fitting for somewhere like Clarksville.

     

    2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

    You need to get out and travel to a lot of these cities Colman to see what true mass transit is all about. I am not just saying one or two cities. Travel to 20 or so cities like I have and see what works and what does not, and you may understand. I will say two cities that do have rail that still does not work is Atlanta and Miami. Miami works fine in the core with the Metro mover, but the rest of the city SUCKS as does the whole of Atlanta. That is probably what Nashville will be like if we do get some kind of light rail system here. A linear system that barely does what it needs to do. The rest of the city is a bus system from hell as is Miami.

    Why do you assume I haven't travelled? I've been all over the United States and Europe, and I lived in South Korea for a while right out of college where it was pretty easy to get around without owning a car. I'm aware of how badly we're behind in terms of mass transit, but my main takeaway from other places that I've visited is we need a dense, walkable urban environment to foster good transit. That's why I agree with you on how rail doesn't work in ATL: You're trying to shove mass transit onto a suburban built environment, and the fundamentals of travel time/connections will never make sense.

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    The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread

    in Nashville

    Posted

    1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

    When did anyone on this board run multiple errands downtown or visit multiple merchants.

    I do this around once a month, as do many of my friends and neighbors. Just because this doesn't make sense to your perspective/lifestyle doesn't mean nobody does it.

     

    1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

    Downtown is for the tourist for the most part

    Downtown absolutely isn't for tourists for the most part. That's how we treat it, and that's what's most visible, but there are tons of people who live in/near downtown that use the area for their everyday needs.

     

     

    Also this is more of an ideological difference, but I don't think it's a city government's prerogative to make parking more convenient. Parking garages/lots are expensive and use a ton of land, so it's hugely cost-inefficient for the government to focus on parking as opposed to better transit options. Every now and then I'll choose to park downtown, but between the bus, scooters, e-bikes, and Ubers, I've not needed to park downtown in years.

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  14. East Bank – I-24 to the Cumberland/I-24 Overpass up to Jefferson – 338 Acres, Nissan Stadium, "Imagine East Bank"

    in Nashville

    Posted · Edited by colemangaines

    2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

    Affordable housing and TPAC will cost 370 million in tax revenue if built on the East Bank. That is pretty much what the article says. 

    Developer's winning East Bank bid forecasts Metro tax revenue, impacted by affordable housing and TPAC - Nashville Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

     

    It's really frustrating to hear this guy frame an amenity like TPAC as "costing" tax revenue because something more profitable isn't going in there. Meanwhile he left out the new Titans stadium, which is costing the taxpayer actual money, where you could make the same argument and say that the stadium site could instead bring in much more tax revenue if used for 600ft+ mixed use skyscrapers.

    Edit: Just remembered the state allocated money for the new TPAC facility so that part of the comparison is unfair on my part.

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  15. Nashville as MLB Expansion/Relocation Market

    in Nashville

    Posted

    It looks like the Rays have committed to building a new stadium near Tropicana Field in downtown St. Pete. It'll still suffer from the same accessability issues from people visiting from the other side of the bay, but if St. Petersburg's downtown continues to develop as it has, and if they can pull off this "Gas Plant district" project, it could find success that Tropicana couldn't.

    https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2023/09/18/stadium-gas-plant-district-2028-tropicana-field-stuart-sternberg/

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    Nashville Bits and Pieces

    in Nashville

    Posted

    10 hours ago, KJHburg said:

    Nashville has the largest average lot size of any of the top 50 cities according to StorageCafe.  The south has 7 of the top 10 most spacious living according to this study. 

    https://www.storagecafe.com/blog/best-cities-for-lot-and-home-sizes/   Your average lot size is .27 acres.  Average home size is 1830 sq ft.  The average size of the average Nashville home is smaller than other southern cities but the lot size is the biggest in the south and the top 50 cities in the country.  But notice the largest Texas cities have smaller lot sizes than most southeastern cities.  

    Another southern hotspot, Nashville, TN, ranks fifth overall for home space. Boasting the largest median lot size among the country’s 50 biggest cities – roughly 11,813 square feet – Music City is great not only for live entertainment but for backyard fun as well.

    I'm willing to bet our HPR process has skewed the data a decent amount. I don't know their data methodology but I'm guessing each HPR lot was counted as 1 lot, even though many of them have 2 detached SFHs on them, since the lot itself isn't split when the HPR is established.

    image.thumb.png.c1b9b34c6aa548538461e03ad30a6351.png

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    Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

    in Nashville

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Argo said:

    Sorry. Doesn't wash. Irresponsible spending for the past two years put massive amounts of money into the system which devalued the dollar thus causing inflation to skyrocket. Thus causing interest rates needing to be raised to try and combat inflation. 

    This class was free. You're welcome.

    The Federal deficit started increasing in 2016, and peaked in 2020. Where are you getting "the past two years" from? Government spending increased dramatically because there was a global catastrophe, and now we're seeing the aftershocks. No need to make this a left vs. right issue.

    image.thumb.png.ac0279e194664632fee973fe88edcc41.png

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  21. Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

    in Nashville

    Posted · Edited by colemangaines

    14 minutes ago, Luvemtall said:

    It’s stories like these, that set the unnecessary frenzy in motion. Just like the bank issue a few months back, everyone got all sorts of wrong information and started panicking about nothing. Every deal and situation is different, and without knowing the TRUE FACTS of the matter, it’s best not to speculate on what might not be happening. It could be just a in house problem that goes no further than that. Stop trying to make everything look worse than it is, and spreading the doomsday narrative. 

    I'm not trying to spread any doomsday narrative - if my post came off that way, it wasn't my intention. You're absolutely right that every situation is different. The article says that it may be market conditions in San Francisco, the hotel's occupancy rate, rising property crime, or a number of other things. But I do think properties were overvalued when debt was cheap for the last few years. And as a result of that along with rising rates, some owners/investors will have to pivot their strategy. Once again nothing doomsday level, but I'm interested to see how the market shifts. Personally I hope we see more movement towards centrally located multifamily housing developments instead of offices.

    For my own personal speculation: I really do believe Nashville would fare better than most cities if the market shifts. I think our hotel and multifamily housing demand is still looking great, if anything maybe we'll shift from "overheated" to "normal" demand.

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  22. Economic Conditions - Nashville, TN, U.S., Global

    in Nashville

    Posted

    The owner of two hotels in downtown San Francisco has stopped making loan payments and turned over the keys to the loan owner, JP Morgan Chase.

    https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2023/06/05/park-hotels-cmbs-hilton-union-square-moscone-pk.html?ana=RSS&s=article_search


    This is significant because the properties' combined 2016 valuations was $1.56 billion, and the outstanding loan balance is $725 million. The owner had previously tried to sell the properties but was unable to finalize a deal. In my opinion it looks like property values have decreased so much since the 2016 valuation that the owner is currently underwater on the loan. I'm sure San Francisco's market conditions exacerbate the issue, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see similar stories come up in the CRE market around the country in the next year.

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  24. More Accolades for Nashville

    in Nashville

    Posted

    When it comes to job growth/wage gains, I wonder if the data is granular enough to tell if its organic growth or from migration. Anecdotally I feel like most of the high earners I know came here with their high paying jobs from a high COL area, while locals have largely had pretty average wage growth over the years, or even negative real growth with cost of living going up.

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  25. Inside 440 - Berry Hill, Midtown, Vanderbilt, 12S, WeHo, Fairgrounds, etc.

    in Nashville

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

    question: what is the that big vacant tract of land in the 4th photo right next to the Fort?  seems underutilized.  

    That's the site of the former Nashville Sounds (minor league baseball) stadium, Herschel Greer Stadium. Closed in 2014, while the new stadium by Bicentennial opened in 2015. The site is included in a future redevelopment of Fort Negley Park, which is currently in the planning stage.

    The Southend comparison is nice, I really enjoyed that area when I was last over there. If only we could be so lucky as to emulate the light rail running north into downtown...

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