I miss RVA

Yep - I think you're correct on that. And let me guess - the referendum would be in November, yes? That by itself is problematic because even if it were to pass, it would introduce further delay into the process that needed to have already gotten started. I have the sinking feeling that Goldman's efforts will -- at best -- delay the process to the point that there's no way in hell the ballpark will be ready for opening day in 2026 or -- at worst -- completely derail the entire Diamond District redevelopment altogether. If it's the former, dunno if that mean's bye-bye Squirrels, but that doesn't bode well for the future of baseball in Richmond. If it's the latter, it means that come 2026, we'll still have the Diamond -- perhaps without a baseball team -- and we'll still have a sea of barren, undeveloped parking lots while the city spins its wheels and flailing, trying to restart the whole process. And if baseball departs, it's not inconceivable that the city might just wash their hands of the whole thing and bail. Reason number 145 why the city has NO business LARPing as real estate developer.

UPDATE (5/9/24) Tract - the developer of the planned data center in Hanover County - has closed on the land, paying $32.7 million for the property, according to Jack Jacobs' reporting in today's RBS. Tract anticipated spending between $50 million to $100 million on basic infrastructure including water/sewer utilities, roads and other site work to prepare the property for construction of the data centers. The first data center could be operational by 2028. From today's Richmond BizSense: https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/05/09/after-zoning-approval-data-center-developer-pays-33m-for-1200-acres-in-hanover/

Here's the Times-Dispatch's reporting on today's meeting: https://richmond.com/news/local/business/development/flying-squirrels-diamond-district-ballpark/article_ae3a30b0-0be4-11ef-a047-c3daef140383.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

In all likelihood, in the 'burbs and definitely in a smaller building. This from Mike's reporting drives home that point pretty clearly. The pending move and the Mechanicsville sale were prompted by the company re-evaluating its office footprint “in light of new workplace trends and the preferences of our teammates,” Sheffer said. It would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath at all. What's more, they leased 90K sq ft on four floors of one of the Riverfront Plaza towers, according to Mike's reporting, and jettisoned that space in late 2020. Yes we do. This dovetails, though, into a lament I've had for quite a while now, recalling that @upzoningisgood has said more than once that downtown RVA needs some kind of "hook" to bring people and businesses back to the CBD. If I remember correctly, I don't think he specified exactly what that "hook" is necessarily. But we're seeing from our competitors that they've figured out what that "it" factor is, because they're having NO problems whatsoever ramping up development in their downtowns. People are moving into the central business districts of those cities in droves... companies are locating and building there in droves... and it goes WAY beyond just having a big skyline, as I've preached previously. I'm not going to rehash all of it, except to say that if we're now starting to see even the STATE begin to exodus downtown RVA - even if only partially -- then there's something bigger at play that NEEDS to be fixed. Three of the usual suspects of competitor cities are state capitals (and I'm not counting Atlanta in this discussion) and their downtowns are BOOMING with development, large employers that bring in a large workforce, and growing residential populations. But downtown RVA... ??? Yeah... we have CoStar downtown (and yeah, the riverfront amphitheater on the way too) - thank God for that! But we need more... a LOT more... and it's beyond me to figure out how to make that happen... how to create the kind of red-hot demand that will bring businesses and residents downtown in droves.

% Could not have said it better.

@RVABizSenseMike has reporting in today's RBS that Owens and Minor has sold their Atlee Station headquarters building to the Virginia Department of Transportation. The company will relocate to a new, yet-to-be-disclosed headquarters building somewhere in metro Richmond by the end of the year. The domino effect is interesting because it raises the question of whether or not VDOT will join the exodus of state agencies from downtown RVA. The state is looking to potentially redevelop the eastern portion of the Capitol campus and the old VDOT headquarters (formerly known as the Highway Department Building) at 1401 E. Broad and the Monroe Tower are part of that mix. Wow... what with the VABC headquarters a few miles south and east of this site, how crazy would it be to have two major state agencies located along I-295. From today's Richmond BizSense: https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/05/08/owens-will-move-elsewhere-in-the-region/

This is great news!! Builds density in an otherwise undeveloped/underdeveloped part of Swansboro - AND - adds a nice infusion of affordable housing stock, which is ALWAYS greatly needed. @eandslee & @Shakman - I hear you on not liking the sea of parking. HOWEVER - given that these are not going to be market-rate units, building integrated/structured parking in all likelihood isn't feasible for this kind of development. Just a layman's armchair opinion, but I have a strong feeling that it wouldn't "pencil" even if interest rates were as low as they were a couple of years ago. I'll take the tradeoff of the surface parking to get the influx and density of 250-262 apartments in that section of Swansboro. What's more - income-based apartments likely will attract more than just young introverted singletons working at CoStar. Meaning - there might be some couples, small families, etc. - so this apartment complex could see quite a sizeable number of people coming into the neighborhood. This would not only helps Swansboro and the city as a whole, but perhaps it would move the needle, even if ever so slightly, in the direction of maybe (finally!) getting a grocer to come in and set up shop in Manchester. I guarantee you grocers look at surrounding neighborhoods when considering Manchester - and boosting population density in Swansboro can't hurt. Glad to see this entering the pipeline.

I know I'm being VERY greedy here - but man, I'm chomping at the bit to have THREE cranes for three different projects -- all within relatively close proximity to each other -- up at the same time. Can you imagine the visual? Wow...

RVA may be on the verge of becoming a major hub for data centers. Jack Jacobs has reporting in today's RBS that California-based Province Group is planning a 1.5 million sq ft data center in eastern Powhatan County, just across the Chesterfield County line. The company has applied for zoning approval for the project, to be located at 1318 Page Road in an area as an economic opportunity zone in the county's 2021 future land-use plan. The site is (as the crow flies) roughly 2 1/3 miles west of the 288 "beltway" and the ongoing Westchester Commons development. This facility would add to the growing number of data centers that have been popping up or are planned around metro Richmond, with several in eastern Henrico, one recently approved in Hanover near Ashland and one to be built in southern Chesterfield in the Meadowville Technology Park. Very much hoping the county approves this development. From today's Richmond BizSense: https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/05/07/data-center-project-proposed-for-120-acre-site-in-powhatan-county/

UPDATE Axios Richmond is reporting today that metro RVA continues to lead the Commonwealth in population growth. According to Axios' reporting, based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the River City grew by 1% from July 2020 through July 2023 while metropolitan Richmond grew by 2.5%. New Kent and Goochland led the way in terms of percentage growth, at 13% and 9.4% respectively. The overall U.S. growth rate was 1%. Metro RVA checked in at 43rd among 132 U.S. metro areas with more than 500K population. HOWEVER - we still lag WAY behind our primary competitors, with Nashville checking in at 4% growth for the same period, Charlotte 5% and Austin at 7.5%. What's concerning, too, is that the city's growth was only 1% - when growth in the prior decade was significantly greater. This calls to mind what has been discussed previously about how the relative lack of housing due to the lack of lots approved for development is constricting population growth by impacting the influx of businesses/employers to RVA. But the flip side to that gives hope that the continued boom in residential construction (despite a VERY challenging post-pandemic economic climate of higher construction costs and still elevated interest rates) will have a domino effect and kick off a surge in population in the city. Scott's Addition now has five large residential buildings currently under construction (all within a few blocks of each other), and two more (the Novel and the Soda Flats) in the home stretch of construction - with more development in the pipeline. The Diamond District (if it EVER gets going) will add 2,000 apartments to that part of the city. Manchester has been laying fallow now for the past year to year and a half but it appears that it is starting to wake up and that the latter half of 2024 and 2025-onward could very well see EPIC construction as large projects -- including Avery Hall's and Tom Papa's riverfront towers -- get underway. This doesn't even consider developments in other parts of the city - particularly the Fan and Museum District, where several projects are well underway and continue apace. And if we can EVER get City Center off the ground... All of that is to say that if availability of housing impacts influx of employers which impacts the influx of population, it stands to reason the city will see a surge in population growth over the latter half of this decade. Let's hope that this does, indeed, come to pass. We know the 'burbs are booming and that development continues in multiples of locations in Chesterfield, Henrico, Hanover and Goochland at breakneck speed. Meadowville is booming with LEGO and now Topsoe -- both Danish companies -- building huge factories there. As only a layman with an armchair view of all of this, it just feels like we're only a cut or two in the prime rate away from REALLY seeing metro RVA explode with the latent development that's been in the pipeline for three or four years now - all of which will open the door to a higher rate of population growth as more employers come here and plant their flags. I'm hoping and praying this all comes to pass. From today's Axios Richmond: https://www.axios.com/local/richmond/2024/05/07/virginia-population-growth-census-bureau?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_richmond&stream=top

By chance, is the crane up yet? I didn't see anything noticeable on the Cap Square construction cam at the N. Chasen development. The cam is pointed in the direction of both the Ace and the Outlier sites, but I haven't noticed anything.

Okay guys - put on your speculation construction hard hats for a second: based on this base (no pun intended) - what do we anticipate crane-wise here for the Outlier? A baby tower crane like the one used to build the Novel up the street? The base looks pretty small for an actual big boom crane. What do y'all think?

The Hanover and Goochland county boards of supervisors have approved rezoning requests for a light industrial park that will straddle the county line near Oilville. Jonathan Spiers has reporting in today's RBS that construction on Pony Farm Industrial Park on Pony Farm Road just north of the I-64 Oilville-Goochland exit is slated to get underway this summer. The 84-acre site is split almost evenly between the two counties with 40 acres in Goochland and 44 in Hanover. The site is a little more than 7 1/2 miles west of 288 and around 7 miles west of the Project Rocky area in eastern Goochland. Great to see this in northeast-central Goochland. Makes me wonder if down the road Oilville might become a node of economic development and population growth in Goochland. Also very happy to see both counties embracing this development. From today's Richmond BizSense: https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/05/06/new-industrial-park-near-oilville-a-go-after-cross-county-approvals/

Fantastic photo, @Child2021 - and a great piece of photo journalism showing progress on construction of two separate projects at the same time. If no one objects, I think this picture is worthy of nomination for RVA/UP 2024 Photo of the Year, which we will all vote on in December. (I have to figure out how to set up a way to vote - I might need some help with that!) Anyway, this is worthy of nomination because it REALLY shows the changing face of downtown RVA and the ongoing transformation of the downtown riverfront. It goes without saying that it also earns a well-deserved piece of RVA/UP Silver Hardware. Make room in your trophy case (or trophy room). Mazal Tov!!! Well done, my friend!

COMMENTARY Here's a new opinion piece by Jon Baliles of RVA 5 x 5 on the current state of play with the City Center redevelopment. (Apologies for posting the entire piece - Baliles does not provide a link to only this article.) STORY #2 — City Center Shoe Drop For the last eight years under Mayor Stoney, economic development projects have followed a similar pattern with similar results. Announce a city-involved project with a bang and lots of pretty pictures, talk about how great it will be for the city and cost us nary a dime, then say nothing while months (or years) pass, reassure that negotiations “are continuing,” which is then inevitably followed by the announcement that the city will indeed bear some cost and responsibility (but that was in reality the better way all along) and whatever the cost, it will be worth it — just you wait and see. The vote to fund the new baseball stadium in the Diamond District is coming up on Wednesday, and it will commit $170 million of city money to backstop the bonds in case the development falls short of paying the debt, after years of the Mayor and CAO telling us the city would not be on the hook for any of the debt. But believe it or not, that is another topic for later this week. This piece is about why the Mayor’s City Center economic development plan had come down with a bad case of inertia until suddenly, we are told the city has to commit a big chunk of money to get it going. Last month, Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) Lincoln Sanders told City Council that the city now needed to pay $3 million to demolish the Coliseum to help spur the City Center development process that kicked off with such promise in 2022. The city issued a request for proposals in the fall of 2022. The Greater Richmond Convention Center Authority and Richmond Economic Development Authority reviewed the proposals and chose four finalists in May 2023 to choose from. The Times-Dispatch ran an article on June 1, 2023 with highlights and diagrams “that lay out the groups’ visions for the mixed-use development project, with conceptual renderings that bring their plans to life. The winning development group will be tasked with demolishing the Coliseum structure within 12 months, repurposing the historic Blues Armory on North Sixth Street and building a 500-room hotel that will support the Greater Richmond Convention Center.” It also noted that “The [city’s] Economic Development and Convention Center authorities hope to announce a preferred development group this summer [2023].” By early September 2023, Richmond Bizsense reported that the city was taking an even more detailed look at the plans of the four development groups and hoped to make a final selection by fall 2023. Then, in February of 2024, Virginia Business reported that no one knew where the process was, when a final selection would be made, or when the final selection process was taking so long. Which brings us to a few weeks ago in mid-April when the CAO suddenly announced the city needs to pony up and pay $3 million for the demolition of the Coliseum — which the city had originally included in the request for proposals to which all four developers responded understanding demolition was clearly their responsibility. But now, that $3 million will be coming from the city’s Capital Improvement Budget to pay for something the city told developers they should be expected to pay, and will prevent the city from directing that funding to schools or roads or community centers, for example. BizSense reported that CAO Saunders reported to City Council that, contrary to the solicitation the city issued in 2022, all of a sudden, demolishing the Coliseum would help reenergize City Center while also removing a public safety liability and costs of about $500,000 annually to keep the shuttered structure secure. “If we do not move forward with advancing the demolition of the Coliseum, we will likely have to offset that with additional security costs to maintain the integrity of the fencing, etcetera, that is intended to keep folks from getting inside and causing challenges. Doing this would also, I think, help with advancing and/or enabling the City Center project to move forward at a faster pace, without adding that cost and challenge to the (project),” Saunders said. Of course, the city could have also done this a year or two ago for the same reasons Saunders is using as excuses now; the city could have demolished the Coliseum as part of the enticement of the City Center project before even issuing the solicitation from developers (and probably used federal pandemic aid to do it). But it was also clear then that there was significant interest from developers in the project with an invitation to develop a ten-acre swath of highly developable tracts downtown (including a 500-room hotel next to a very successful convention center), and the city could (and did) use that as leverage to have the developers pay for it. But rather than negotiate from a position of strength, the city seems to have since decided the best path is to pull out the checkbook. The Diamond District development took months longer than anticipated to reach an agreement, and then in spring 2023, the first shoe to hit the floor was that the city would pay millions for infrastructure and the stadium opening would be delayed a year to 2026. After that, that project saw no action or news for almost a year until the Mayor and CAO suddenly said a few weeks ago the city would be responsible for all of the debt as the second shoe hit the floor. There has been no news about progress on City Center since last summer. It is unclear what Saunders means by spending $3 million of city money to demolish the Coliseum will achieve a “faster pace” to select the City Center developer or make the project doable. But the city waving the white flag to pay for demolition is the first shoe to hit the floor. One possibility for the sudden city surrender could be that the prospective developer(s) might be fearful about unforeseen costs like asbestos abatement or other hidden costs of demolition that could cost more than $3 million. Of course, that would have been clear during the solicitation process (and is apparently a major issue in the demolition of the Public Safety Building site being paid for by VCU which is well behind schedule). Another possibility is that those interested in developing City Center saw that the city is willing to do anything to get a deal done, especially since Stoney & Company have failed at every large economic development deal they have tried to get the city involved in over the last seven years. Desperation to get a deal done makes leverage a two-way street. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that a developer that watched the city fumble the Diamond District project for the last 18 months and then abandoned the original financing plan (yes, interest rates played a major role), but when the city turned and took full backing of the bond debt, someone might also have concluded that they could get the city to pay for the demolition of the Coliseum (and maybe even more) as part of the City Center deal. It’s also possible that neither of those scenarios will play out, or we might see something else entirely. But we know that since the first shoe dropped and the city is paying the $3 million to demolish the Coliseum, another shoe is likely to follow. It won’t happen until after the Diamond District deal is secured, and just how much more it may cost the city is TBD. But we know since the Mayor is on his way out, he is so anxious to close these deals so the city will offer whatever it takes to get them done, whether it makes good financial sense or not. And once again, we will be the ones left to pick up his tab.

% Man - just imagine with all the current buildings rising, once the Hardee's it taken down and Shamin builds that sweet-looking AC Hotel. Wow... at12 stories, it will really have prominence there, and along with all of the other development, Arthur Ashe, as you said, will be completely unrecognizable. Just amazing to see all of this unfolding.

I think they will, as a larger critical mass of population moves into Manchester in the coming years -- especially if some of the larger developments get underway sooner rather than later. An sharp influx of 1,500-2,000 (or more) apartments over the next few years will go a long way toward building that critical mass that will lure retailers to the district.

Wait... what is?

It may be slower (for a while) than what's been happening in Henrico and Chesterfield, but I do think Goochland and Powhatan will see sprawl. I think the slow pace will give way at some point to more robust development and it may already be happening in the eastern portions of both counties. GRTC already is running a local route (I think the #19 bus) to and in eastern Goochland. If West Creek really takes off the builds up beyond what's already there, that will establish a "node" in the east-central part of the county. The "triple point" of Henrico/Hanover/Goochland west of Short Pump around that nexus of I-64, I-295 and route 288 will continue to grow outward - meaning Hanover and Goochland will continue to see development and population growth in that immediate area. Not like I know anything or have a crystal ball - it's all speculation, but based on growth patterns, I think that makes the most sense.

BIG NEWS -- THE DANES LOVE RICHMOND!! Danish manufacturer Topsoe announced yesterday plans to build a $400 million factory in the Meadowville Technology Park. Jack Jacobs has reporting in today's RBS that the Lyngy, Denmark-based global company will construct a 280K sq ft plant in the northern end of Meadowville directly across the street from fellow-Danish giant - LEGO. The plant will bring 150 new jobs and will be the company's third North American location and their largest facility in the U.S. Topsoe has plants outside of Houston and in Alberta, Canada. The RVA facility will manufacture solid oxide electrolyzer cells which are used to generate "clean hydrogen" as a fuel source. Construction is slated to get underway this summer. Greater Richmond Partnership, the Virginia Economic Development Partnership and the Chesterfield Economic Development Authority collaborated to bring this plant to metro Richmond. This constitutes a HUGE WIN for metro RVA!! Unquestionably, Richmond is on a LOT of peoples' radars not just across the country but around the world as a great place to come and do business. This is another extremely important and sizeable international investment in the metro area. Man- with an expanding Danish presence in Richmond, we'd better get some international flights lined up at RIC to take advantage of that newly-opened FIS. Great news indeed! From today's Richmond BizSense: https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/05/02/danish-manufacturer-topsoe-buying-into-meadowville-tech-park-for-new-400m-factory/

UPDATE @RVABizSenseMike has reporting in today's RBS that Dalian has filed with the Virginia Court of Appeals. No date has been set yet for a hearing. The district court declined to reconsider its ruling. I guess all we can do is stay tuned. From today's Richmond BizSense: https://richmondbizsense.com/2024/05/02/scotts-addition-parking-lot-dispute-heads-to-appeals-court/

Very cool! Hopefully you'll have other opportunities to visit your daughter here and spend more time in RVA and take in more of the city. Williamsburg: OMG - having grown up in Richmond, a trip to Williamsburg was essentially an annual pilgrimage, whether on a family jaunt or a school field trip (because of the history). My mother (may her memory be for a blessing) was totally in love with Williamsburg and she insisted we trek down to the colonial area once a year -- usually around the holidays. My first wife & I honeymooned in Williamsburg.

Nice!!! Maybe this means that Manchester -which has been dormant for about a year to a year and a half now - is about to wake up.

New jobs report lends credence to this assertion that RVA's job market is blisteringly hot. The Henrico Citizen is reporting today that the county's unemployment rate fell another three tenths of a point to 2.5% - down from 2.8% for the same period (March) of 2023. Metro Richmond's unemployment rate showed an even greater overall level of improvement, dropping four tenth's of a point to 2.6%, down from 3.0% in March a year ago. Pretty robust figures for greater RVA! This outstanding news - coupled with the WSJ report of RVA being the 11th best job market nationally (and the highest ranked city on the eastern seaboard outside of Florida) and the second-fastest growing labor force in the country - makes today and INCREDIBLY good news day from the standpoint of what all this might portend for RVA's future growth. We've got to keep this up - and HOPEFULLY this will help GRP lure some of those "big fish" that they've been trying to bring here, along with tens of thousands of new jobs. Pedal to the metal, gentlemen... pedal to the metal! From today's Henrico Citizen: https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/henricos-march-unemployment-rate-down-from-same-month-in-2023/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Very cool! How long will you be in town? There's SO much to explore and see, and obviously much of your exploration will involve of practical stuff for your daughter. HOWEVER - If you and your family happen to have have any time left over to just play tourist for a day or two, may I humbly suggest a visit to the absolutely AMAZING Japanese and Italian gardens at Maymont Park. Both gardens are beautiful and, personally, I find the Japanese Garden to be breathtaking. Maymont's not far from Carytown.