Coffee Talk

[northernbizzkit1]

Out of curiosity, how big do you guys envision Memphis becoming? I think that I could see a metro of around 2.5-3 million by 2050. By that time, I could imagine Memphis and Jackson simply merging into one large metro area (not gonna use the megalopolis term...yet). But could any of you ever see Nashville and Memphis joining? Sort of a Memacksville megalopolis? Dunno...of course, I don't expect this in the next 5 years...more of a 50+ kinda thing. How do you see downtown becoming? I still imagine a Philadelphia or New Orleans style happening in Memphis. I think north of Union will be the "New downtown" where the condominium towers would be fixated (apart from One Beale and the Vue and the Horizon) while south of Union would be the "old downtown" with Beale and the South End. Ultimately, I can imagine the Memphis/Tunica region becoming sprawled with Tunica featured as the Las Vegas style area while Memphis remains the financial/business sector of the region.

[Rural King]

Dealing with the metro side of the question -I don't see any of these metros merging.

The Memphis metro will definately grow substantially larger in the next 50 years as it spreads into Tipton and Fayette counties in West Tennessee, rapidly advances into Northern Mississippi (where I see most of Memphis's metro growth coming from), and perhaps spurs on some substantial growth on the Arkansas side of the river. However, I doubt it can reach anywhere near Jackson.

Jackson is currently rapidly heading north up US 45W, not south or west to put its metro on a course to meet up Memphis's, so instead of merging with Memphis, Jackson is on a course to merge with Humboldt in the next 50 years, and probably Medina a well (which is on 45E).

As for Nashville, there is no way its going to breach the Tennessee River Valley. Dickson is as far as the Nashville Metro can push out IMO. I can't imagine the metro pushing into counties like Houston, Humphreys, and Hickman.

To put it simply, there are just WAY to many miles between these cities for their metros to ever come close to joining up in any realistic or imaginable time frame IMO.

[HABANERO7]

I agree... If anything Nashville will be much closer to connecting to Clarksville and or connecting with Cookeville in the next 45 years, and both of those statements could be stretches. IMO There is no way that the vast expanse between Nashville and Jackson and the vast expanse between Jackson and Memphis will be in filled with sprawl.

I like the idea of Memphis with the dense core city feel that it has being the primary city destination while you can still have the opportunity to drive down to the south part of town known as Tunica for those weekend delights.

Looking at the placement of major cities in Tennessee, there is almost no chance of a 28 county metro monster like Atlanta will appear. Memphis will continue to grow and spread out, but with the size of Shelby and Desoto counties there

[sleepy]

I think Memphis will continue to expand into the parts of Mississippi which are already part of the MSA--DeSoto, Marshall, Tate, and Tunica counties. I particularly see Tunica becoming more of a bedroom/retirement community with new resorts, etc.

With the completion of I-69, I would expect north Shelby County and Tipton County to become much more developed.

I could easily see St. Francis County AR (Forrest City) becoming part of the metro. Perhaps Brownsville TN, Clarksdale and Oxford MS as well, though more likely as part of a CSA.

[rocket9561]

Dealing with the metro side of the question -I don't see any of these metros merging.

The Memphis metro will definately grow substantially larger in the next 50 years as it spreads into Tipton and Fayette counties in West Tennessee, rapidly advances into Northern Mississippi (where I see most of Memphis's metro growth coming from), and perhaps spurs on some substantial growth on the Arkansas side of the river. However, I doubt it can reach anywhere near Jackson.

Jackson is currently rapidly heading north up US 45W, not south or west to put its metro on a course to meet up Memphis's, so instead of merging with Memphis, Jackson is on a course to merge with Humboldt in the next 50 years, and probably Medina a well (which is on 45E).

As for Nashville, there is no way its going to breach the Tennessee River Valley. Dickson is as far as the Nashville Metro can push out IMO. I can't imagine the metro pushing into counties like Houston, Humphreys, and Hickman.

To put it simply, there are just WAY to many miles between these cities for their metros to ever come close to joining up in any realistic or imaginable time frame IMO.

Actually, the Nashville MSA already includes fast-growing Hickman county. That being said I also cannot see Nashville growing toward Memphis. The western counties of the MSA (Cheatham, Dickson, and Hickman) are really only growing so quickly because of their very small populations. Cheatham is the only one I see that could really take off and that would be more related to Clarksville. Beyond this area and to the East of Jackson, I can't see much happening even in 50 years.

Nashville's best chance of a merge comes from Clarksville with shared commuters in Robertson, Cheatham, and (to a lesser extent) Dickson and Davidson counties. The second best chance comes from Bowling Green , KY. A fast growing area itself that will soon border fast-growing Sumner County which already sees a growing number of residents working and especially shopping in places like Franklin, KY. The third would be Chattanooga and while I believe the chances are greater there than with Jackson, even Rutherford's phenomenal growth probably cannot make this happen.

[satalac]

it would probably be more realistic to put nashville into a megalopolis with chattanooga and atlanta in 50 years. the way all three of these cities are moving (nashville to the south, chattanooga to the north and south, and atlanta to the north) it could possibly happen. it still would be a stretch though. i don't see memphis taking over jackson, or nashville taking over cookville in a long long time.

[Rural King]

Hickman County is in the MSA now! Well by golly Nashville might as well just obtain all of Middle Tennessee as its metro before its all said and done. LOL j/k By folks commuting to Dickson, Columbia, and Springhill, does that enable them to be in the Nashville MSA?

[satalac]

By folks commuting to Dickson, Columbia, and Springhill, does that enable them to be in the Nashville MSA?

all i know is that it enables them to help with our traffic problems.

[rocket9561]

Hickman County is in the MSA now! Well by golly Nashville might as well just obtain all of Middle Tennessee as its metro before its all said and done. LOL j/k By folks commuting to Dickson, Columbia, and Springhill, does that enable them to be in the Nashville MSA?

Yep, it is. With a population of around 23,000 (a 33% jump from 1990)

Some others that joined the list...Smith, Trousdale, Cannon, Macon

The Nashville MSA borders these micros

Cookeville, Lewisburg, Shelbyville, McMinnville, Tullahoma, and Columbia (included in CSA)

It also borders the Clarksville/Hopkinsville Metro

[GaTechGuy]

it would probably be more realistic to put nashville into a megalopolis with chattanooga and atlanta in 50 years.

I wouldn't be so sure about it merging with Chattanooga. There are mountains in the way there.

[satalac]

I wouldn't be so sure about it merging with Chattanooga. There are mountains in the way there.

oh i know, i was just saying it would probably be more likely than it merging with memphis.

[southsideJ]

As far as cities growing together, I know that Murfreesboro is already part of the MSA, but I will be interested to see the relationship between Murfreesboro and Nashville develop. Isn't it logical to believe that Murfreesboro, if it continues to explode, could be approaching 200, 000 in the next 50 years. Meanwhile the gap between Murf and Nash will continue to fill up.

what do you think?

How big is Murfreesboro now? isn't in the neighborhood of 75, 000?

[it's just dave]

The city is somewhere around that number, maybe 80k, I dunno. The county is a couple of blinks from hitting 200,000 anyway and with most of the growth in the connected cites of La Vergne, Smyrna and Murfreesboro, it'll probably just get bigger and bigger. In 50 years? Who knows. Proabably too much of everything. Murfreesboro's already choked itself and is a royal pain the butt to drive in. It would be nice if some big city infrastructure started to take place out there to handle the traffic instead of being so concerned about attracting people. Schools and roads just can't keep up. I plan to stay away after my little trip down there the other day and got stuck in town with no real way out. I've always liked Murfreesboro, but give me Nashville traffic anyday. Call me when a beltway is built.

rocket's territory, Sumner is pretty fascinating, but doesn't get much conversation around here. I was in Gallatin Sunday and drove the 30 miles to downtown Nashville without really "leaving town" so to speak. If I'd gone on down to Franklin, the solidity of the metro along the route would stretch about 50-60 miles without much of a break in the "city." Amazing. Sumner County is going nutzoid with growth.

Regardless of all this growth, there's still plenty of land out there if one gets off the interstates. We're far from filled up. So the eternal megalopolises of which we speak of here are quite unlikely unless you're talking about something very long, a very narrow.

[Boisefan]

Williamson County i would imagine in the next 10 to 15 years would be filled up in the center along US 31 and I 65, and after 840 gets done the whole southern area should literally explode in growth. I can see Maury County becoming part of the MSA some time soon.

[Rural King]

How is Hickman in the MSA and Maury not? Thats odd IMO. Seems that Maury would have alot more, or at least as much, economic and social exchange with Nashville as measured by commuting patterns than Hickman County. Thats interesting.

Edit: Maury is in the CSA.

[Plasticman]

Yep, it is. With a population of around 23,000 (a 33% jump from 1990)

Some others that joined the list...Smith, Trousdale, Cannon, Macon

The Nashville MSA borders these micros

Cookeville, Lewisburg, Shelbyville, McMinnville, Tullahoma, and Columbia (included in CSA)

It also borders the Clarksville/Hopkinsville Metro

I grew up in Macon County and I can say with the foothills and the "Highland Rim", the terrain makes it way too tough for Nashville to include Macon and/or even Trousdale as a MSA. Macon County, particularly Lafayette is a land-locked dead-end with no railroad or interstate highway within 36 miles. The only redeaming part is the expansion of Highway 52 toward Portland.