Orlando Mayoral Race

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One of the late Doug Guetzloe's buddies seems to be following in his mentor's footsteps:

Paul Paulson, former Orlando mayor candidate, accused of 'sham charity' by 6 states
http://bit.ly/2uNXLp7

From the Sentinel

[HankStrong]

Like a STD, he's a "gift" that keeps on giving.

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Scott Maxwell's favorites in both gubernatorial primaries:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-florida-governor-picks-desantis-graham-king-scott-maxwell-20180720-story,amp.html

From the Sentinel

IF YOU WANT TO VOTE IN THE PRIMARY,

REGISTER BY JULY 30!

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Just another reminder for any newbies to Florida:

Florida is a closed primary state. To vote in the primaries, YOU HAVE TO BE REGISTERED BY JULY 30.

Any questions about where, how or whatever, let me know. Lots of important races coming up in the primaries and the general election - every voter matters!

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Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, which is one of the most Center-to-slightly-right (mostly due to its adherence to genteel UVa tradition) political prognosticators, has come right out and predicted that Democrats will retake the US House in November (not a shock - the party of the president usually loses seats in the midterms but this year may be worse than usual.)

Of interest to us is that Stephanie Murphy, in John Mica's old District 7 seat, is now listed as Likely Democratic by Sabato. This despite lots of sound and fury from the plethora of Republicans in the race. What was once a safe GOP seat has really turned. Great work by the SemDems so far!

All of this is for naught if Democrats don't bother to vote as often happens in non-presidential years. Folks, to win you have to enter!

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/398493-top-analyst-dems-now-favorite-to-take-house-in-midterms?amp

From The Hill

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Latest polling for governor shows Gwen Graham leading the Dems and Ron DeSantis ahead on the GOP side. The poll was by Mason Dixon, one of the more reliable outfits. Since 25% are still undecided, the race is very much still in play.

One good thing about the entirely loathsome Jeff Greene entering the race is that he seems to have divided the South Florida blue vote with the benefit going to Gwen. This of course makes me very happy.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-mason-dixon-poll-florida-governor-20180726-story.html#nt=inbody-1

From the Sentinel

REGISTER BY MONDAY JULY 30 to be eligible to vote in the primaries, including the non-partisan races for OC mayor and OCPS chair.

[HankStrong]

Which one has his daughter talking about cookies in the ads?  That's a little weird to watch.

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While the Realtors do go their own way on occasion (supporting their own members who run for office regardless of party, for example), it's not unusual to find them following the Chamber's line on endorsements.

As a result, there are some surprises among their picks. Most notably are their selection of Jerry Demings for OC Mayor instead of Chamber entrepreneur Rob Panepinto and Stephanie Murphy for US House District 7. In that race, although Stephanie's the incumbent, Mike Miller is the bland but uberestablishment favorite. 

Suffice it to say I'm happy with both picks along with Eric Rollings for OC Commissioner District 3. Eric's a Realtor so that's not a surprise but still glad to see the nod in a race with more candidates than there are Kardashians. Eric has the potential to be one of the best picks for Commissioner in a long time.

Orlando Regional Realtor Association endorses Central Florida candidates
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-orlando-realtor-endorsements-2018-elections-20180725-story.html

From the Sentinel

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Gwen Graham moves ahead once again in the latest poll of the Democratic gubernatorial primary. The undecided vote seems to be moving in Gwen's direction as she releases her first TV ads. 

Jeff Greene continues at #2 (a truly scary thought), mostly at the expense of fellow South Floridian Philip Levine.

Andrew Gillum is back some way at 12% but was just endorsed today by Sen. Bernie Sanders so watch for more movement in the field.

The poll was conducted by St Peters Polls which I do not consider as solid a pollster as the previous offering by Mason Dixon so a little skepticism is warranted.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/270474-gwen-graham-rockets-to-no-1-in-fresh-dem-primary-poll

From Florida Politics

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Interesting article about the fall from grace of Adam Putnam and Alan Grayson and how their respective parties are in one case running from the establishment and in the other running toward it.

Putnam, Grayson – former rising stars – now flaming out
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-adam-putnam-alan-grayson-fizzling-campaigns-scott-maxwell-20180801-story.html

From the Sentinel

Oh,and totally unrelated but speaking of flaming out: How 'bout Urban Meyer. I can't say I'm surprised. We are talking shady. Oh well, I should thank him for turning me into a full time Knights fan after a lifetime of cheering for the Gators.

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Latest internal polling in the Democratic primary race for governor continues to have Gwen Graham as the front runner but with Philip Levine closely behind in 2nd. This poll is commissioned by Levine so keep that in mind but it's good to see carpetbagger Jeff Greene fading. 

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/271026-poll-gwen-graham-philip-levine-opening-gap-on-rest-of-democrats

From Florida politics

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A look at the OC mayoral debate:

http://orlando-rising.com/orange-county-mayoral-debate-style-substance/

From Orlando Rising

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Jerry Demings and Teresa Jacobs have apparently declared war on one another as they run for top jobs at OC and OCPS. It has to do with deputies in the schools.

We can at least say Orange politics aren't boring for a change!

Mayor Teresa Jacobs blasts Sheriff Jerry Demings, says he provided 'less than accurate' information to media
http://bit.ly/2MPDk2A

From the Sentinel

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I really liked this - the Establishment candidate for the Dems (and my strong favorite for the job!) ,  Gwen Graham, has picked The Social downtown for her election night party Aug 28. Go Gwen!

Wonder if Jeff Greene's party will be at Mar-A-Lago?

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OC Mayor candidates debate the issues, including two of our favorite topics around here, SunRail and affordable housing:

http://bit.ly/2NcvWi8

From the Sentinel

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An interesting look at the race for Florida governor by Vox:

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/8/24/17772818/florida-primary-elections-2018-governor-desantis-putnam-graham

And yes, early voting is still going on today. GO VOTE!

 

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Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer endorses Gwen Graham in the Democratic primary for governor:

https://m.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2018/08/24/orlando-mayor-buddy-dyer-is-set-to-endorse-gwen-graham-for-florida-governor

From Orlando Weekly

LAST DAY FOR EARLY VOTING: GO VOTE!

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The final St Pete Polls survey before tomorrow's Democratic primary has good news for Gwen Graham and Andrew Gillum.

Meanwhile, Jeff Greene will hopefully crawl back under the rock he arose from:

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/273042-heres-florida-politics-final-poll-of-democratic-primary-for-florida-governor

From Florida Politics

IT AIN'T OVER 'TIL IT'S OVER -Go VOTE with JFW tomorrow if you haven't yet.

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Much too early for results yet, but something that stands out:

In the OC Mayor race, Jerry Demings has 63% of the vote among mail voters and early voters. 

That the Democrat has such a commanding lead at this point is notable because Republicans traditionally outperform Dems in voting in advance. A Democrat leading the county for the first time in 20 years heralds a new day at S. Rosalind's Brick Bunker.

Stay tuned.

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Another interesting race so early is the Republican primary for Congress District 7, the former "Mica" seat. Mike Miller is a strong favorite in the pre-election day voting at 64%. That's an impressive start.

UPDATE: OC only. No word on Seminole yet so this may not be as good as it looks. Stay tuned.

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WINNERS: The Sentinel has called Mike Miller in the GOP primary, Stephanie Murphy in the Dem race.

Also, Darren Soto is called in his Democratic race against Alan Grayson, who  may crawl back under his rock.

It does not appear early on that Teresa Jacobs will have much difficulty in the OCPS Chair race but this is not called yet.

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In the governor's race, Graham leads Gillum 33-30 with half the vote counted.

Trumpsters rejoice: DeSantis is so far walking over proud NRA sellout Putnam with 56% counted.

Looks like a runoff for OC District 3. Democrat Mayra Uribe is in the lead with Repub Pete Crotty (yes, he's a son) in second.  Both are currently in the 20s so this one gets decided in November.

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WOOHOO! The Sentinel calls the OC Mayor race for Democrat Jerry Demings. He pulled 50+% so no runoff.

JFW will now perform a stunning rendition of "The Times, They Are A Changin'".

The St Pete Times calls for DeSantis in the Fl governor GOP primary.

Victoria Siplin keeps her OC Commission seat;

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Here's a shocker: OC Commission District 2 (up Apopka way and normally Republican territory) is being led by Democrat Patricia Rumph.

There will be a runoff, though, likely with Christine Moore, who will likely consolidate GOP votes and keep this seat red. I hope not but that's what I expect.

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It's official: Teresa Jacobs moves to Creative Village from the Brick Bunker to run OCPS (she has 52% so no runoff.)