ElricSeven
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Posts posted by ElricSeven
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If I didn't know better I'd think you have something personal against the Vue!
I can always count on you coming on this thread and bashing this building.
On the contrary, I think the pro-building attitude prevails on these boards to the point of blindness to realities sometimes. I would think perhaps they are so excited about a project and are such fans of development they have something personal in favor of the Vue. It's 50 stories and very sexy, they want it really bad and any hint it might not happen just sends them into the stratosphere.
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The point I'm making is that people are overreacting.
I have no doubt that every developer of a speculative project (well, maybe not Novare) gives themselves an out.
It's called good business.
The Vue is a totally different product than anything else ever offered in Charlotte, even 210 Trade. So no, it doesn't surprise me that this project might have a few starts and stops.
I don't take the no sales figures as a positive sign, but I do take it that's the way they've chosen to market and sell the building, right or wrong. They're trying to create a very exclusive brand, and they might (wrongly) think that approach adds to it.
I don't think, based on what I've heard, that sales have been blistering on the project.
I do know that at the beginning of the project they were so strong that they were considering upping the floor count. It's probably tailed off since then.
Now, for something concrete, I am friends with folks in the planning department. None of them think this project won't happen.
right, but the intimation earlier was that the rezonings and failure to disclose were the equivalents to a completely fabricated story
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Did it happen?
Nope, but if I said it, it would be as reliable as some of the negative stuff I hear on here.
Okay, so you're saying that a completely made-up story is how much weight the actual facts of rezoning to open an escape hatch of a sale of the land to a third party and a lack of willingness to disclose sales numbers should be given? C'mon man, you might not want those things to have any weight, but you certainly can't say they've got the same nonexistant relevance of some totally contrived story. I want the building to get built too, but I'm not going to blind myself to things that cast some doubt over the project. It's fine to say you believe there's little relevance or impact from those facts on the chance the building will get built and provide some analysis why, but don't completely dismiss them as being as unreliable as an outright lie.
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I'm pretty sure all closings are around the same time in 2008...
Really? When I went by the sales office, they said the lower level units would be able to move in in late 2007.
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When all of these condos downtown are done, and investors who bought to flip put them back on the market, it might be a great time to be a buyer...
I concur, although waiting three years to buy one has risk also since one would have to pay rent that whole time any way. Construction costs do go up and it is conceivable that although these people might not make money, they might not lose any (other than transaction costs) either.
I live in one already, I'm hoping that if and when a glut occurs, I'll still be able to sell mine for a decent profit and trade up to one someone owns and is under huge pressure to unload. 20% sale at 210 Trade! Wahoo!
Alternatively, stuff might not be as marked up right outside the inner loop in the more established neighborhoods.
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400K? 500K?
We must be getting desensitized to it, because the numbers are becoming so commonplace. But, it really IS a lot of money!
How the heck can a typical uptown office worker pay for this??
The traditional measure of affordability is 32% of gross income. Figure 55K for the usual uptown geek financial job, that's $1466 a month for lodging.
Financing 90% of 400K at 6.5% interest for FORTY years is $2108 a month, then add HOA and property tax on it... PMI too? Yikes.
I don't see how investors could be buying these units either. What would they rent for? $1500, maybe?? (32% of income again...) How does this make financial sense?
Despite my perplexedness, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic to see 210 Trade sell out - I want to see development by the rail line take off.
But it sure sounds like the average person will have to wait for the resales, if they want to get into one of these units.
People buying these aren't typical Uptown office workers. There are a lot of people in this town that earn in the low six figures. If there are two of them, $400 to $500K can be quite afordable. As far as PMI, I don't think anyone pays that anymore. They just get a HELOC which is all deductible interest.
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I live at Fifth @ Poplar and I was by the mailboxes the other day and noticed a 2BR condo there for rent on the bulletin board for $3400/month. I had to do a double-take, but that's what I read. I didn't think rentals were that high here, but $1500 for 210 would be way cheap in comparison to other downtown properties...I just looked at the prices on Camden's site for the Cotton Mills and it's $1200/month for a 550 sqft apartment.
Having rented two things in Uptown in the past 6 months, I can say that the max you're going to get is about $1.70 per square foot. Those at FAP would have to have like 50% down on the place just to break even. I feel sorry for anyone who thinks they're going to buy anything Uptown right now and then rent the place out.
My understanding is that the percentage of investors in Uptown condos right now has risen to be larger than those that plan to live in the places. There's going to be some people with loadstones around their necks if the boom doesn't keep going.
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i'm not saying i believe totally what i was told but it does make sense. I mean if i were looking for a place at the Vue and had the money for it, I would want a place on a higher floor with a better view. If i knew the place was almost sold out, I would pretty much assume that there were no good places there. That is different IMO from a standard 2 story condo or subdivision.
Yeah, but under this theory NO building would ever sell out because no building would attract any buyers past perhaps being 80% sold. Every building would stop dead at 80% and receive no further inquires, and no further sales, because all the good units are already sold. The idea that the place is really popular - and hence a good investment - is the number one tactic for driving the remaining sales. This may be even more important at the Vue where trendiness is half the sale. It certainly isn't driven by low price.
Conversely, if the Vue's theory holds true, what is the Vue going to do with the people who come in not knowing all the "good units" are sold? Somehow convince them to buy something else? Well, even if they buyer is willing to make a compromise then, they would be much more likely to do so knowing it is an incredibly in-demand building. I bought at Courtside without even seeing a floorplan first because I knew that if I walked away and gave myself time to think, there'd be nothing left when I got back. I really would have bought anything at the time guessing that it would be a great investment.
The sense of urgency that comes from missing an opportunity is a far, far stronger motivator that overrides any concern about a lack of selection. Try seeing what happens at Christmas when a certain popular toy is known to be selling out. It starts riots. Over a toy. Scarcity makes people crazy to get on board.
So, the Vue sales staff are either really stupid for not advertising how popular their building is, or they're clever like a fox. Spinning their lack of disclosure as being something special because their building and clientele is so special. "Oh (she bats her eyelashes), we don't tell how much have been sold because that would scare everyone away. Our clients are so rich they won't settle for anything but the best!" BS! Might as well have a building on stilts then with only penthouse units because such discerning clientele won't buy anything less than the top level.
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As far as street retail presence, College looks good to me, Trade looks awkward, and 4th is pretty pathetic......4th is going to be pretty pedestrian unfriendly......front by CTC with lots of bus traffic, EpiCentre with no involvement on 4th, Charlotte Plaza and parking deck with no access from 4th, the BB&T buildings (though at least the branch entrance is oriented to 4th) and the butt of the Omni hotel, which is blank wall.....combine this with the high traffic volume and speeds, and 4th will be the least pedestrian friendly street downtown east of Tryon.
Most pedestrian unfriendly has to be 3rd (I think) that goes by Wachovia. Cars going super-fast one way and you have to step into the street to pass underneath the trestle. I've made that wrong turn when walking a few times and have been scared out of my wits by it. Or, am I thinking of 4th? Each time I encounter the situation, it boggles my mind. Caldwell is that way too on one side across from ParkIt. The sidewalk just disappears at one point.
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I don't understand how releasing all the sales info scares off buyers. That isn't the case with every other project in town that does release all the info from the beginning. Everyone else posts units, prices, etc, from the first marketing stage -- in print, if you call, at the sales center. The "scare the buyer looking for a good deal" logic might be the case somewhere else, but I think it is backwards for Charlotte. No other similar property I can think of does this, and they all sell out unless there are other problems (i.e. The Park).
Does anyone have proof that this scenario happens? That buyers think after the first round of sales all the "deals" are gone so they won't buy? I've never seen that happen at all -- if anything buyers move faster on Charlotte projects when they see few units available because they don't want to be left out.
The people who are buying are not told either. I have two friends with units under contract and they have been demanding the developer tell them how many are sold so they can get a guesstimate on when things will start...no one will tell them.
I think keeping your info so secret hurts and scares off buyers far more than letting them know. You have no idea if they are telling the truth when they say sales are great, you have no idea when they will break ground, and you have no idea how long they are going to hold your earnest money.
The scare the buyer theory is total baloney. Popularity and success begets only more interest and a sense of urgency. In my opinion, they're covering up slow sales.
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Now I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to real estate, but I do know that's a very high figure. Wow.
Yeah, but they've got a really high rate of rentals. Most of the population is transient at the beach. Now whether or not they can realize sufficient return on investment to justify what they paid on the condo is another story.
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Good for Charlotte if the market favors the buyer.
And I doubt that the bottom will fall out. Your more moderate scenario is much more likely I should think.
Also factor in the historic nature of the current boom, with the reversal of urban-flight and so forth.
I concur that the more moderate scenario is the most likely, especially if, as we're seeing, the marginal projects drop by the wayside.
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I'm just sorry to hear that there is a lack of trust connected with this project. Their Orlando venture went swimmingly.
Yeah, but the condo boom is starting to die down. I just got an e-mail from an agent I know in Myrtle who said it is now a buyer's market out there due to all the construction being completed.
And as a side note, it would be healthier overall if the projectst that are mispriced, poorly placed or lacking sufficient appeal were to never happen. It wouldn't be very healthy to have the bottom fall out all of sudden. Keep up steady momentum over twenty years would be more preferable to a four year boom and then 16 years of people too frightened to buy.
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...which would be the exact opposite of 210 Trade.
I remember early on in the process a lot of folks on here doubting whether 210 was going to happen due to the slow process.
Let things work themselves out...these are incredibly complex projects that have to cross numerous hurdles before they get out of the ground.
I'm still feeling really good about the Vue happening and would be surprised if we don't see construction by the fall.
Yeah, I think maybe our sentiment swings a bit too wildly around here. People were so positive before and then freaked when I suggested there was some risk that the project would not occur based on how closed-mouthed they were about progress. Now, we see some plans on their part to have an escape hatch. I hardly think that means the project is dead, it just slides the scale a little bit in the negative direction. 210 Trade looks to be 99% sure and the Vue has slipped a bit in my mind to perhaps 80% sure.
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As I understand it they also don't currently own all the land they are proposed to build on either and one of the remaining owners and The Vue still have not come to terms. Hopefully they will work everything out, but the zoning news sure seems like an odd request....
Yeah, why go through all the expense of preparing a request and the risk of possibly tarnishing confidence in your project?
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Well, on a happy note, the developers of The Vue have requested a rule change to allow them to sell the land without the conditional zoning specific to The Vue project. The text amendment would allow the zoning to revert to UMUD from their conditional UMUD-O if they want to sell the land without doing the project.
http://www.charmeck.org/Departments/Planni...ns/2006-068.htm
That sounds like great news to me.
Hah, sounds like they're looking for a backdoor.
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There is a rather large spread in today's paper by Mr. Smith on a plan to reproduce 1st ward's garden district in Noda. The good news is that in the renderings in the paper, it looks pretty nice. 8 single family homes on tiny lots, 4 - 4story residential towers, 25 live-work lofts, 102 condos, and 103 townhomes. It's called steel gardens.
Even better news is that prices are going to run about $100-$150 sq/ft which isn't bad for a new place these days in Charlotte. This is being built on top of reclaimed land where they used to handle oil. Charlotte needs to see more development like this instead of stripping more land on the fringes to build vinyl starter homes and McMansions.
Edit: I guess this was already announced here since it is in the title of this thread Can't keep up with stuff anymore.
i'm having trouble picturing where this is...is it north of NoDa then?
Has anyone figured out what's going in where Piedmont Courts used to be? I noticed 2/3 of it is dirt at this point.
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Just out of curiosity, E7, why do you think this location is inferior? I love the fact that you have a phenomenal city view (possibly better than one you may not get inside the loop even), have retail and dining options at your doorstep (downtown can't really even claim to have the former), and have a beautifully landscaped greenway at your disposal. I think this may be a better location than downtown, IMO.
I wouldn't say "inferior" just less preferred than an Uptown location where you can walk to work and not have to pay $195 per month to park. I've learned from renting units that I own and talking to other Uptown residents that being within a 10 minute door-to-door walk is incredibly important to people. So, I'm hoping that the Metropolitan recognizes that they can't command the top premium of about $350 to $400 per square foot that the Uptown locations do. That being said, yes the project has a lot of things going for it. I just think they'd be doing themselves a big favor momentum-wise to be a little modest on the price. Make it a win-win for them and the purchasers. The tendency lately at FAP and Vue has been to squeeze every last dime the market will offer and ten percent more.
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I know that many are against such a "big box" development being in close proximity to downtown but in all reality, there is a lot of space with fairly low density around the downtown core. This was a non-existant or bland development for a very long time and is the best development this site has ever seen.
Just look at the model of the greenway going by the development. This is something Charlotte desperately needs. Many people, including me, love to be connected with water in an urban setting. That is the biggest thing I miss the most by moving from Chicago to Charlotte and I'll be extremely glad to get even a small connection to it back, even if it is a creek.
This development is much better than probably any other alternative that could be proposed at this point in time. In 50 years could Charlotte support higher density on this plot of land? Probably, but that is 50 years from now and I'd rather have a couple of big box stores generating traffic to downtown and tax revenue for the city than leave the site empty and become a burden.
If you were to put several smaller stores in the same space would anyone still consider it bad development? Just because it is one big store doesn't matter much. This development is a smart one in my opinion and I for one will welcome it with open arms.
Looks better all the time. I've an appointment to talk with a sales person. Hopefully they'll recognize that the location is not as good as within the belt loop and that there is some risk in buying into the project at this point and discount accordingly. I'm not interested if it's going to be $300 per square foot, unless it has really nice fixtures, finishes and amenities. By really nice, I'm talking Vue nice.
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http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/14547286.htm
It's not really the best confirmation, but the Observer recently included in the list of what the project will include. 5/10/06 by Doug Smith:
By the way, I'm really excited that Bar Management Group is involved. That group really created most of the uptown nightlife in the last decade. Plus, if EpiCentre really gets a lot of pubs, bars, clubs, lounges, etc., the center of uptown nightlife will grow slightly, but the additions will be very close to existing activity. Right now, the blocks that have much of the nightlife activity are the Hearst block (with Phils, Connelly's, Madison's, Blue, Attic, Brick and Barrell, Rira, Fuel - and eventually Carolina Theatre) and 7th St Station block (Cosmos, Bar Charlotte, Forum, Brixx, LaVecchia, and a few others that come and go along there). There are a few other places, like Buckhead that are around there. But with much of the nightlife being one or two blocks from the Arena, it will be a natural progression for that to expand to Trade and College at the Epicentre.
I would still say the weight of the evidence points to there not being a theater, but it is encouraging to see DS say there will be.
The Vue
in Charlotte
Posted
That's funny because purchase contracts are extinguished by closing. There must be some special gymnastics they plan on going through to keep that provision alive. I have no idea how they could pull that off. Of course I'm a patent attorney and not a RE attorney. I'm guessing that the provision is also for the Vue's own protection, so that they've got a year to unload the remaining units before all the flippers hit the market with their units.